Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty · 14-03-2019 11:48am

This is an analysis, by Peter Walker, of the amendments put forward today. Most of them won't be adopted but I could see B, E and H being put forward. Whichever ones are chosen, they will certainly test party unity in both main parties.

A. Plaid Cymru amendment. This amendment, signed by Plaid’s four MPs, calls for a delay to Brexit until 2021, and a second referendum at the end of this.

B. Ruling out a second referendum. Signed by more than 100 MPs, mainly Conservative but also Labour’s Caroline Flint and Gareth Snell, this states that “the result of the 2016 EU referendum should be respected and that a second EU referendum would be divisive and expensive, and therefore should not take place”.

C. Revoke article 50. Put forward by the SNP’s Angus Brendan MacNeil and Tory remainer Ken Clarke, and signed by about 30 other MPs, this calls for the entire Brexit process to be cancelled.

D. Lib Dem second referendum plan. Tabled by the the Lib Dems’ 11 MPs, this also calls for a Brexit delay and a second referendum.

E. Labour amendment. Led by Jeremy Corbyn, this notes the rejection by parliament of May’s Brexit plan, and of no deal, and says the government should “provide parliamentary time for this house to find a majority for a different approach”.

G. The Chope amendment Tabled by Conservative Brexiter and regular malcontent Christopher Chope – and signed only by him – it says Brexit should be delayed for two months “for the specific purpose of replacing the UK negotiating team”.

F. SNP/Plaid second referendum plan. Yet another extension/second referendum amendment, this also calls for remain to be an option in the referendum, and for the revocation of article 50 to be possible in the interim.

H. Cross-party request for second referendum Tabled by ex-Tory Sarah Wollaston, now of the Independent Group, and signed by around 30 MPs, this seeks a delay for a new referendum, which would have remain as an option. Could be selected by Bercow.

Leroy42 · 14-03-2019 11:51am

Jebus, Amendment E, the Labour amendment. Is that really the best they have at this stage?

Its up there with "Is there anything to be said for saying another Mass"

joe40 · 14-03-2019 11:51am

The really divisive nature of UK politics is such that a general election will not act as a defacto referendum since there is deep division within the main parties on the topic.
I'm far from a political expert but I think there is a chance Mays deal will pass if erg and leave labour MP are faced with delays or no deal in reality.
This probably would be the best outcome.
Although there was many flaws in the 2016 referendum, there was a general election to reverse things and the triggering of A50 was passed by a large majority.
This is a mess but the British electorate and HoC have to take responsibility.

I do have an awful lot of sympathy for the large number of remain voters but hard to see how the UK could be a fully functioning partner in the EU.

I would actually love to be wrong, but that is my sense of things

Whatsisname · 14-03-2019 11:51am

Tropheus wrote: »

I''ve been working in Newcastle for a couple of days a week for the past few months.

What amazes me is how the vast majority of people in the UK are completely disengaged from this. There is absolutely no disucsion here in the office. If this was happening in the Dail, it would be the main topic of conversation in workplaces across the country.

People just seem sick of it. Any mention of Brexit in a social setting gets a glazed look and a quick change of subject. People are sick of it and largely don't seem to get the complexities or want to try and understand them. Yes, it's reproted in the media and the infomration is there if people want it, but they largely don't have any interest and seem to feel it will sort itself out without any impact on them.

I was on a conference call with a few UK colleagues yesterday morning. In the lull before it started, I said "I see Brexit is doing well". One of them replied, "is it, that's good". I theny said "going well, not". They then replied "oh, ok".

There is something very broken here in the UK and it's not going to be sorted quickly. I can see this division going on for a generation at least.

Been working here in Manchester for over a year now, and I'd agree with you. Everyones just fed up of it in the office and nobody really talks about it, I've had a few conversations about it with one of the guys when we go out for a smoke but even he's stated, he didn't vote, for the fact he didn't know enough about either side, and said if there was a second referendum, he probably wouldn't vote again as he feels it's one big broken system as it is. Whether thats right or wrong, thats probably another conversation.

But definitely feel the same as you, there is something off about the attitude of everyone to it over here.

funkey_monkey · 14-03-2019 12:00pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is an analysis, by Peter Walker, of the amendments put forward today. Most of them won't be adopted but I could see B, E and H being put forward. Whichever ones are chosen, they will certainly test party unity in both main parties.

Which out of B or H have any possibility of passing?

Seth Brundle · 14-03-2019 12:03pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The wonderful thing about A50 revocation is that it is really simple and quick. One vote in Parliament instructing the PM, letter to the EU 1 minute before the Brexit deadline, job done.

They could do it in 30 minutes flat on the 29th.

Would this actually pass?
Given that nigh on 50% voted last night to keep a no-deal on the table I think the thought of a revocation of Art 50 would make them vote against this.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think it is now quite clear that Brexit is and always has been a bloody stupid idea.

Of course there is a point in not doing bloody stupid things.

We've had two years of this stupidity and yet a large proportion of the HoC still demand a Brexit in some shape or form.

VinLieger · 14-03-2019 12:07pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think it is now quite clear that Brexit is and always has been a bloody stupid idea.

Of course there is a point in not doing bloody stupid things.

I completely agree its stupid however is there any point in them staying if the people behind this will just keep pushing their twisted agendas considering how easily the british media and public seem to allow themselves to be lied to and choose to believe those lies?

CelticRambler · 14-03-2019 12:07pm

Tropheus wrote: »

What amazes me is how the vast majority of people in the UK are completely disengaged from this. There is absolutely no disucsion here in the office. If this was happening in the Dail, it would be the main topic of conversation in workplaces across the country.

That's the difference between a country that is (and always has been) ruled by an elite, and a true democratic/republic nation. The people are disengaged by design - FPTP means the opinion of close to half of them is regularly ignored.

joe40 wrote: »

Although there was many flaws in the 2016 referendum, there was a general election to reverse things and the triggering of A50 was passed by a large majority.

Several times I've heard result of the GE 2017 being claimed by Leavers to be a pseudo-ratification of the referendum. No, it wasn't. Again, FPTP and "safe seats" makes a mockery of democracy when there are multiple opinions and preferences within the electorate, and no possibility of getting a parliament that is truly representative of their views. The evidence is right there in the HoC this week.

VinLieger · 14-03-2019 12:11pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

That's the difference between a country that is (and always has been) ruled by an elite, and a true democratic/republic nation. The people are disengaged by design - FPTP means the opinion of MORE THAN half of them is regularly ignored.

FYPFY

Since the 1950's there has only been one Government elected by a majority of the people and that was the tory/lib dem coalition in 2010

bob mcbob · 14-03-2019 12:13pm

Tropheus wrote: »

I''ve been working in Newcastle for a couple of days a week for the past few months.

What amazes me is how the vast majority of people in the UK are completely disengaged from this. There is absolutely no disucsion here in the office. If this was happening in the Dail, it would be the main topic of conversation in workplaces across the country.

People just seem sick of it. Any mention of Brexit in a social setting gets a glazed look and a quick change of subject. People are sick of it and largely don't seem to get the complexities or want to try and understand them. Yes, it's reproted in the media and the infomration is there if people want it, but they largely don't have any interest and seem to feel it will sort itself out without any impact on them.

I was on a conference call with a few UK colleagues yesterday morning. In the lull before it started, I said "I see Brexit is doing well". One of them replied, "is it, that's good". I theny said "going well, not". They then replied "oh, ok".

There is something very broken here in the UK and it's not going to be sorted quickly. I can see this division going on for a generation at least.

I have a friend who is a strong leaver and we agree that we see things very differently so rather than repeating the discussions / arguments of the past we skip over it. I met him a couple of weeks ago and after a few drinks he attempted to bring it up - I responded by "glazing over" and looking out of the window.

prawnsambo · 14-03-2019 12:15pm

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Would this actually pass?
Given that nigh on 50% voted last night to keep a no-deal on the table I think the thought of a revocation of Art 50 would make them vote against this.

I wouldn't put too much store by that vote last night. There were so many factors at play in who voted which way, that you can't really draw any conclusions. Theresa May voted against an amendment to her own motion and then voted against her own motion, thus defeating herself. In light of that, is there any possible view of that vote that doesn't sound like complete lunacy?

ancapailldorcha · 14-03-2019 12:19pm

A rather good article from BBC news focused on Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy & Poland about the possibility of Article 50 being extended.

To surmise, as expected France will likely insist on conditions for an extension while Poland and the Netherlands seems to be keen on avoiding no deal and possibly Brexit altogether. The Italians and the Germans seem to be lukewarm about an extension. None of these countries seem likely to grant an extension simply for more party politics in the UK, however which is heartening to read.

Sam Russell · 14-03-2019 12:23pm

VinLieger wrote: »

FYPFY

Since the 1950's there has only been one Government elected by a majority of the people and that was the tory/lib dem coalition in 2010

Not since 1932 has a single party Gov in the UK ben elected by a majority of the popular vote. 1932.

Oafley Jones · 14-03-2019 12:40pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A rather good article from BBC news focused on Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy & Poland about the possibility of Article 50 being extended.

To surmise, as expected France will likely insist on conditions for an extension while Poland and the Netherlands seems to be keen on avoiding no deal and possibly Brexit altogether. The Italians and the Germans seem to be lukewarm about an extension. None of these countries seem likely to grant an extension simply for more party politics in the UK, however which is heartening to read.

I'm still not convinced as to the EU 27 robustness as regards foreign interference seeking to deny an extension. It's an easy goal geopolitically. Seeing the likes of Aaron Banks on "holiday" in Italy atm does nothing to allay my suspicion.

robindch · 14-03-2019 12:41pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Can you tell me how an obscure part of the Vienna Convention can be invoked?

On the topic of international agreements related to cities which start with the letter 'V', there's also the Venice Commission which produced the following document on how to run referendums:

https://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/documents/?pdf=CDL-INF(2001)010-e

and particularly Section N:

Venice Commission on Referendums wrote:

Referendums on questions of principle or other generally-worded proposals should be consultative only. While some countries recognise that such referendums may bind parliament in principle, this leads to difficulties of implementation and entails a high risk of political conflicts.

robindch · 14-03-2019 12:44pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

the possibility of Article 50 being extended.

Farage, Banks and others have been visiting right and far-right governments around Europe to encourage them to veto an extension:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/brexiters-lobby-for-european-veto-of-article-50-extension

So much for "taking back control".

ancapailldorcha · 14-03-2019 12:44pm

Oafley Jones wrote: »

I'm still not convinced as to the EU 27 robustness as regards foreign interference seeking to deny an extension. It's an easy goal geopolitically. Seeing the likes of Aaron Banks on "holiday" in Italy atm does nothing to allay my suspicion.

The EU27 will vote based on their own interests, not those of Arron Banks or Nigel Farage. Their Eurosceptics might share some common ground but, unlike the UK they won't vote against their own interests simply because Farage asked them to.

robinph · 14-03-2019 12:45pm

Now suggesting that they will have a third go at the same meaningless vote next Tuesday... but could Bercow put a stop to that and not let them? Was hints that he might need to during PMQ's yesterday.

ancapailldorcha · 14-03-2019 12:46pm

robindch wrote: »

Farage, Banks and others have been visiting right and far-right governments around Europe to encourage them to veto an extension:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/brexiters-lobby-for-european-veto-of-article-50-extension

So much for "taking back control".

Yep. British Euroscepticism is a completely hollow ideology based on presenting a disaster capitalist libertarian coup as a working class revolt. I know people in Ireland who've swallowed it hook, line and sinker.

ancapailldorcha · 14-03-2019 12:46pm

robinph wrote: »

Now suggesting that they will have a third go at the same meaningless vote next Tuesday... but could Bercow put a stop to that and not let them? Was hints that he might need to during PMQ's yesterday.

If he did, the consequences could be explosive. It's supposed to stop the abuse of the Commons by dragging up the same bill over and over again.

Water John · 14-03-2019 12:51pm

The Benn-Letwin-Copoper amendment, just in, is the one to watch. Cross party support looking for an EXT to explore alternatives next week.
This is Parliament taking control.

Oafley Jones · 14-03-2019 12:52pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The EU27 will vote based on their own interests, not those of Arron Banks or Nigel Farage. Their Eurosceptics might share some common ground but, unlike the UK they won't vote against their own interests simply because Farage asked them to.

Of course they're just puppets; so you're convinced there isn't a weakness amongst the 27 where Putin could potentially press an advantage?

robinph · 14-03-2019 12:55pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If he did, the consequences could be explosive. It's supposed to stop the abuse of the Commons by dragging up the same bill over and over again.

I'm not certain what the outcome of him doing so would be, but it does now need someone to actually grow a pair and do something to knock them all into action. A grenade such as that thrown into the mix might be enough to cause something/ anything to happen.

As it is at the moment they are just going to go round and round in circles voting on things that have no meaning or against everything because there isn't a majority for anything other than "not that". Otherwise, May will just keep coming back with the same thing and each time another couple of MP's will get bored and forget which lobby they walked through the last time.

robindch · 14-03-2019 12:56pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

British Euroscepticism is a completely hollow ideology based on presenting a disaster capitalist libertarian coup as a working class revolt. I know people in Ireland who've swallowed it hook, line and sinker.

Likewise. Had a relative doing the whole red-face, finger-pointing, pop-eyed act the other day. No point in engaging.

ancapailldorcha · 14-03-2019 12:59pm

robinph wrote: »

I'm not certain what the outcome of him doing so would be, but it does now need someone to actually grow a pair and do something to knock them all into action. A grenade such as that thrown into the mix might be enough to cause something/ anything to happen.

As it is at the moment they are just going to go round and round in circles voting on things that have no meaning or against everything because there isn't a majority for anything other than "not that". Otherwise, May will just keep coming back with the same thing and each time another couple of MP's will get bored and forget which lobby they walked through the last time.

It would mean the end of the deal. The EU will not renegotiate again. That leaves either another referendum or no deal. Possibly staying in the customs union.

The 29th March is 15 days away. MP's have precious little time to get bored and vote on motions.

Seth Brundle · 14-03-2019 1:08pm

Guy Verhofstadt reiterates the point that the brits will only get an extension for a sensible reason...

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1106145647722295296

josip · 14-03-2019 1:13pm

...Unless there is a clear majority in the House of Commons for something precise...

Does that mean that they have to have had a vote on something?
It doesn't sound like a majority of the HOC believing that they need to extend to get cross party consensus would be sufficient.

robinph · 14-03-2019 1:17pm

josip wrote: »

Does that mean that they have to have had a vote on something?
It doesn't sound like a majority of the HOC believing that they need to extend to get cross party consensus would be sufficient.

If one of the amendments mentioning having another referendum pass then they'll get their extension.

If the DUP amendment to the extension request saying that they shouldn't be another referendum then May will just be told via twitter not to waste her time in asking before the results have even been passed from the tellers to the speaker.

ted1 · 14-03-2019 1:17pm

milhous wrote: »

Irish beef is great. Cows have a much happier life here too than most countries. I don't think I'd like to see Irish beef become a thing of the past.

Keep supplying the local market. And other markets but scale back

ted1 · 14-03-2019 1:20pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I ain't a farmer I would not know, if you want to address climate change then let's discuss the elephant in room, out of control population growth that needs food. But that's nothing to do with Brexit.

However getting back to politics from your whataboutism post. I do know that in Irish politics they are one industry that the government will not ignore.

Plant based diet requires less land, less water, less energy and emits less methane. It’s all around better and realistically the only way we can sustain population growth.

FrancieBrady · 14-03-2019 1:21pm

josip wrote: »

Does that mean that they have to have had a vote on something?
It doesn't sound like a majority of the HOC believing that they need to extend to get cross party consensus would be sufficient.

It just means that their 'taking No Deal off the table' shennanigans is meaningless unless they come up with something they want. As was always the case.

If they don't want the Deal then, as far as the EU is concerned, it is No Deal.

ancapailldorcha · 14-03-2019 1:21pm

ted1 wrote: »

Keep supplying the local market. And other markets but scale back

ted1 wrote: »

Plant based diet requires less land, less water, less energy and emits less methane. It’s all around better and realistically the only way we can sustain population growth.

Mod: Take this elsewhere please.

Professor Moriarty · 14-03-2019 1:22pm

These are the four amendments chosen:

1) Sarah Wollaston’s - calling for an extension to article 50 to allow for time for a referendum on Brexit.

2) Hilary Benn’s - saying next Wednesday should be set aside for a debate that would start the process of allowing MPs to hold indicative votes on Brexit alternatives. There is also an amendment to this amendment, from Labour’s Lucy Powell, changing the timing.

3) Labour’s - saying article 50 should be extended to allow time for MPs to find a majority for a different approach to Brexit.

4) Chris Bryant’s - saying Theresa May should not be allowed to put her deal to the Commons again.

None are particularly pro-Brexit which is strange.

joe40 · 14-03-2019 1:23pm

So what would be the best outcome for Ireland now?

If the WA is passed on the third vote at least we will know where we stand. I realise it will only be the start of the real process but it will give a degree of certainty

An extension will create uncertainty and ultimately the only other options are leave with no deal, or revoke Brexit altogether. I suppose a future labour government might go for a customs union but success of that is far from a given.

If Britain revokes Brexit altogether what kind of EU member will they be. They might even send a larger number of Farage types to the European Parliament.

Maybe it will be possible to cancel Brexit altogether but it will take time to heal wounds both in UK and between Uk and EU.
This also damages anglo Irish relations.

Why did they ever call the referendum?

Irishmale0399 · 14-03-2019 1:24pm

2nd referendum vote this afternoon....they are going around in circles.

Leroy42 · 14-03-2019 1:26pm

They are busy attacking the speaker now. Some very upset MPs about the amendments selected.

Bercow is well able to stand up for himself.

Professor Moriarty · 14-03-2019 1:29pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

They are busy attacking the speaker now. Some very upset MPs about the amendments selected.

Francois very upset apparently. Schadenfreude is unhealthy but one can indulge once in a while.

Patser · 14-03-2019 1:29pm

Awww. I wanted Chope's amendment to be debated, the one that basically said sack the lot of them who negotiated this bloody deal.

GLaDOS · 14-03-2019 1:30pm

Are these amendments binding?

I'm a bit lost over the whole point of these votes and amendments.

Roger_007 · 14-03-2019 1:34pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

They are busy attacking the speaker now. Some very upset MPs about the amendments selected.

Bercow is well able to stand up for himself.

Next stage in the shambles:- Berexit?

Call me Al · 14-03-2019 1:37pm

The Independent is reporting a westminster vote to allow a 2nd brexit referendum is to be held.
Edit.. that will teach me to speed read.

Water John · 14-03-2019 1:42pm

They are four positive motions. Seems like Bercow ruled out negative motions.
Beautiful put down by him to JRM. Invited JRM for a cup of tea.

An Ciarraioch · 14-03-2019 1:43pm

GLaDOS wrote: »

Are these amendments binding?

I'm a bit lost over the whole point of these votes and amendments.

AFAIK, none of them are - Benn amendment most likely to pass today, as Labour won't back Wollaston. If Bryant passes, you're probably looking at a 21-month extension.

blanch152 · 14-03-2019 1:45pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The EU27 will vote based on their own interests, not those of Arron Banks or Nigel Farage. Their Eurosceptics might share some common ground but, unlike the UK they won't vote against their own interests simply because Farage asked them to.

Essentially, Farage et al. are asking other countries to use political capital and exercise a veto in respect of an extension of Brexit. The use of the veto in the EU isn't widespread because it is expected that those using it should be doing so in respect of a vital national interest.

I really cannot see how any member of the EU could say that it was in their vital national interest that the UK crash out with no deal on 29 March rather than any other option that is being put and that has the support of everyone else around the table. Yes, there will be negotiations around any statement, yes there will be negotiations around conditions for an extension and for how long, but I would be very surprised if anyone exercised a veto to block an extension. If an extension is blocked, it will be because there are at least seven or eight uncomfortable with an extension.

Water John · 14-03-2019 1:45pm

Woolaston vote may be early for Labour even though it's their policy. McDonnell indicated they might back such a motion next week. Seems they first want to tease out soft Brexit alternatives as per Corbyn last night.

Chong · 14-03-2019 1:46pm

Hang where did May's vote go today or could that be out the window like last night with all the amendments again.

This gets more shambolic by the minute.

blanch152 · 14-03-2019 1:47pm

joe40 wrote: »

So what would be the best outcome for Ireland now?

If the WA is passed on the third vote at least we will know where we stand. I realise it will only be the start of the real process but it will give a degree of certainty

An extension will create uncertainty and ultimately the only other options are leave with no deal, or revoke Brexit altogether. I suppose a future labour government might go for a customs union but success of that is far from a given.

If Britain revokes Brexit altogether what kind of EU member will they be. They might even send a larger number of Farage types to the European Parliament.

Maybe it will be possible to cancel Brexit altogether but it will take time to heal wounds both in UK and between Uk and EU.
This also damages anglo Irish relations.

Why did they ever call the referendum?

The best outcome for Ireland is for Brexit to be cancelled, followed by the softest of Brexit, followed by May's deal.

Anything else is a disaster.

SimonTemplar · 14-03-2019 1:50pm

Bercow is no fool. He would have known not selecting the amendment ruling out a 2nd ref would be met with criticism and would have been well prepared to defend his decision.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch · 14-03-2019 1:51pm

Roger_007 wrote: »

Next stage in the shambles:- Berexit?

he's supposedly due to retire this summer!

Water John · 14-03-2019 1:57pm

As a result of yesterday's vote Lidington and Gove both have hinted that if things run up to a deadline ART 50 might be withdrawn.
May be a bluff to push the ERG but is probably also true.

Govn't want a third bite at May's Deal next week. If it fails then indicitive votes. The majority in the House might not at this stage agree with that plan.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Comments