Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

awec · 19-08-2020 9:55pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Good value for money is when the house that went for x last year is x minus 15% this year. Boy, do you feel good knowing you got value for money and your neighbour overpaid.

Oh...and he is better at golf than you....but he overpaid.

But this is such a gross over simplification of the real world. Have you ever actually bought anything?

Value for money is when you buy it for less than someone else?

Vikings · 19-08-2020 9:55pm

smurgen wrote: »

Bizarre logic.who mentioned comparing to others? I'm talking about ensuring you buy as cheaply as possible for the house you want to ensure your life isn't restricted after purchase.

Restricted in what way exactly?

awec · 19-08-2020 9:56pm

smurgen wrote: »

Bizarre logic.who mentioned comparing to others? I'm talking about ensuring you buy as cheaply as possible for the house you want to ensure your life isn't restricted after purchase.

What has life being restricted got to do with anything? You are mixing up different things now.

You could buy your house at the absolute bottom of the market, and end up living off koka noodles because you end up unemployed, while I could buy mine at the top and suffer no financial consequence whatsoever, happily living my life.

Pelezico · 19-08-2020 9:56pm

awec wrote: »

Did it?

If I buy stocks tomorrow that I intend to keep for 5 years before cashing out, and they drop in value on Friday, has it gone "badly wrong"?

What about if they're worth 200% of their value in 5 years time? When I sell them, will I lament the fact that for a few months after I bought them, they were in the red?

Well if he bought in 2005, he is still under water. In my world, that is bad.

Rationalising the decision...he is still living there and deriving a utility value from the house but he has paid over the years.

He may still be paying if he does not have any equity and cannot avail of good mortgage deals.

awec · 19-08-2020 9:59pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Well if he bought in 2005, he is still under water. In my world, that is bad.

Rationalising the decision...he is still living there and deriving a utility value from the house but he has paid over the years.

He may still be paying if he does not have any equity and cannot avail of good mortgage deals.

It's only bad if he wants to move.

If he is very happy where he is living, and he is comfortably paying the mortgage, how is it bad?

It's not the perfect situation, far from it, but it's not bad either. There are much worse situations to be in than be in negative equity in a house you love that you can continue to service the mortgage on.

Of course, if we were talking about a property that he bought as an investment in 2005 that's a whole other ball game, and that would certainly be a bad decision that has proven costly, because in that scenario financial success is the only indicator that really matters.

Hubertj · 19-08-2020 10:01pm

I bought my house about 5 years ago. I haven’t thought about it’s value since I bought it. I don’t give a toss If prices have increased x%. It’s a home to the family, not an asset that increases or decreases in value. Maybe I’m in a minority with this point of view.

Pelezico · 19-08-2020 10:02pm

awec wrote: »

It's only bad if he wants to move.

If he is very happy where he is living, and he is comfortably paying the mortgage, how is it bad?

It's not the perfect situation, far from it, but it's not bad either. There are much worse situations to be in than be in negative equity in a house you love that you can continue to service the mortgage on.

Of course, if we were talking about a property that he bought as an investment in 2005 that's a whole other ball game, and that would certainly be a bad decision that has proven costly, because in that scenario financial success is the only indicator that really matters.

No...it is bad if he wanted to remortgage during this time.

And..for those buying now, if they fall, don't post on boards.ie bemoaning lack of access to future mortgage deals.

You will probably not be eligible for quite some time.

awec · 19-08-2020 10:04pm

Pelezico wrote: »

No...it is bad if he wanted to remortgage during this time.

And..for those buying now, if they fall, don't post on boards.ie bemoaning lack of access to future mortgage deals.

You will probably not be eligible for quite some time.

Again, this will vary massively from individual to individual.

Some of those tracker deals that tiger buyers are on, you'd have people today donating arms and legs to get their deal.

Of course, the thing we're forgetting here is that with the removal of 100% mortgages, negative equity is not quite the same beast as it was, and getting back into positive equity is not the same mountain to climb.

smurgen · 19-08-2020 10:04pm

awec wrote: »

What has life being restricted got to do with anything? You are mixing up different things now.

You could buy your house at the absolute bottom of the market, and end up living off koka noodles because you end up unemployed, while I could buy mine at the top and suffer no financial consequence whatsoever, happily living my life.

You could or you could buy the house you want at a reasonable price at a discount to your neighbors. Fellas thing people are in the market for the Taj Mahal. Most people are buying generic semi d's. They're not that rare. Get the gaff your really want up to your neck in debt and end up unemployed. See how much you can happily live you life then.

Pelezico · 19-08-2020 10:07pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I bought my house about 5 years ago. I haven’t thought about it’s value since I bought it. I don’t give a toss If prices have increased x%. It’s a home to the family, not an asset that increases or decreases in value. Maybe I’m in a minority with this point of view.

Guys love their house going up un value. It it is the greatest rationalisation of all. You may be in the minority...but you are on this bb lots...so I guess you are just like all the other guys.

Cyrus · 19-08-2020 10:09pm

smurgen wrote: »

You could or you could buy the house you want at a reasonable price at a discount to your neighbors. Fellas thing people are in the market for the Taj Mahal. Most people are buying generic semi d's. They're not that rare. Get the gaff your really want up to your neck in debt and end up unemployed. See how much you can happily live you life then.

What’s a reasonable price and how do you derive it .

awec · 19-08-2020 10:09pm

smurgen wrote: »

You could or you could buy the house you want at a reasonable price at a discount to your neighbors. Fellas thing people are in the market for the Taj Mahal. Most people are buying generic semi d's. They're not that rare. Get the gaff your really want up to your neck in debt and end up unemployed. See how much you can happily live you life then.

Well if you end up unemployed, you'll not be living your life at all no matter if your house cost 100k or 500k. But anyway, again this will vary massively from person to person.

You could buy your house at 80% of the price your neighbour paid, and move in feeling all smug thinking you're an economic genius and that your neighbour is a loser. Then next year, someone could move in beside you at 80% of the price you paid. By your logic, you'd be a loser here. In reality, you wouldn't give two fcuks.

You will realise this when you actually buy a house.

If you can afford the monthly repayments, then the value or price of your house is of very little consequence until you want to sell it. Nobody is getting their house re-valued every year to figure out if their net worth on paper has increased (ok, maybe a few weirdos do). Nobody engages in this willy waving of comparing what you paid compared to someone else, because as I said, there will always be someone who got a better deal than you.

Cyrus · 19-08-2020 10:10pm

schmittel wrote: »

Conor Skehan, then Chairman of the Housing Agency writing in the Independent in 2015 raises some interesting points:

Fast forward 5 years and we have builders left with levels of unsold stock of expensive semi-ds in the suburbs, according to Goodbody stockbrokers.

We also thanks to COVID have a clear trend towards accelerated implementation of WFH, giving many of the potential buyers of these houses now the option of looking far beyond the suburbs.

I get that everybody's circumstances are different, and I understand the argument about not putting one's life on hold, but if I was about to sign a 30 year mortgage contract for an expensive semi d in suburbia I'd being giving the point Conor Skehan raises some very serious consideration.

Correct me if I’m wrong but weren’t all of the ‘ghost estates ‘ outside Dublin ?

Cyrus · 19-08-2020 10:11pm

awec wrote: »

Well if you end up unemployed, you'll not be living your life at all no matter if your house cost 100k or 500k. But anyway, again this will vary massively from person to person.

You could buy your house at 80% of the price your neighbour paid, and move in feeling all smug thinking you're an economic genius and that your neighbour is a loser. Then next year, someone could move in beside you at 80% of the price you paid. By your logic, you'd be a loser here. In reality, you wouldn't give two fcuks.

You will realise this when you actually buy a house.

Exactly

It’s not a game.

If the whole thing is that transactional to you why bother at all , just rent away and be smug looking at all the suckers with mortgages .

smurgen · 19-08-2020 10:13pm

awec wrote: »

Well if you end up unemployed, you'll not be living your life at all no matter if your house cost 100k or 500k. But anyway, again this will vary massively from person to person.

You could buy your house at 80% of the price your neighbour paid, and move in feeling all smug thinking you're an economic genius and that your neighbour is a loser. Then next year, someone could move in beside you at 80% of the price you paid. By your logic, you'd be a loser here. In reality, you wouldn't give two fcuks.

You will realise this when you actually buy a house.

If you can afford the monthly repayments, then the value or price of your house is of very little consequence until you want to sell it. Nobody is getting their house re-valued every year to figure out if their net worth on paper has increased.

Wrong way of thinking. I'd be thinking the original neighbors was even more unlucky? You wouldn't think this? So given the choice in this scenario you're saying you wouldn't rather be the most recent neighbour?

Springy Turf · 19-08-2020 10:13pm

Pelezico wrote: »

They will when they try to remortgage. That is when a while new bunch of threads will start on boards.ie bemoaning risk based mortgages.

So your advice would be to not buy now if you plan on remortgaging in the near future? I'd agree with that - but that's a very peculiar position to be in. The interest rates don't have a much lower than 2.2/2.3% to go - particularly if banks are saddled with a load of bad debt.

You say its madness to buy, but you won't directly address any of the very valid reasons why it might be important for someone to buy now.

hometruths · 19-08-2020 10:15pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Correct me if I’m wrong but weren’t all of the ‘ghost estates ‘ outside Dublin ?

In 2008 yes. There won't be ghost estates in Dublin, nobody is suggesting that.

awec · 19-08-2020 10:16pm

smurgen wrote: »

Wrong way of thinking. I'd be thinking the original neighbors was even more unlucky? You wouldn't think this?

Nope, because everyone's circumstances are different.

The original neighbour could be living in their dream house, comfortably paying the mortgage off. Why would I feel sorry for them?

Personally, I would never suggest anyone buy a house if they are not comfortable on the mortgage (no stretching to pay it or forking out 40/50% of your income) and they do not want to live there for a long time, because this is when it genuinely becomes a real issue.

Mic 1972 · 19-08-2020 10:17pm

nerrad01 wrote: »

well its not unrealistic that they could drop by 10%, the entire economy is being artificially propped up and we are realistically facing a major recession, the questions is will this effect the massive under supply of properties that we have. No one knows, i personally think a drop of between 10% is a fairly realistic outcome

I agree with the negative outlook on our economy, but all the signals have been out for long enough now. And still no signs of decline in house prices. Whatever it is that is driving the prices up it doesn't seem affected by any of these factors.
Bear in mind that in the last few months alone rents have dropped quite significantly and also there aren't many jobs out there left compared to last year. Why would this not impact the property market?

Hubertj · 19-08-2020 10:19pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Guys love their house going up un value. It it is the greatest rationalisation of all. You may be in the minority...but you are on this bb lots...so I guess you are just like all the other guys.

Why though? I’m never going to sell it. Why does it matter how much something I’m never going to sell is worth?
In your case I feel for your son. You seem to be advising home but you really don’t have a clue what you’re talking about. Perhaps let him be a grown up and find his own way. Or maybe he’s not capable of that.

smurgen · 19-08-2020 10:20pm

awec wrote: »

Nope, because everyone's circumstances are different.

The original neighbour could be living in their dream house, comfortably paying the mortgage off. Why would I feel sorry for them?

Personally, I would never suggest anyone buy a house if they are not comfortable on the mortgage (no stretching to pay it or forking out 40/50% of your income) and they do not want to live there for a long time, because this is when it genuinely becomes a real issue.

But all other things being equal you agree there's an optimal decision right?

Mic 1972 · 19-08-2020 10:20pm

schmittel wrote: »

We also thanks to COVID have a clear trend towards accelerated implementation of WFH, giving many of the potential buyers of these houses now the option of looking far beyond the suburbs.

That WFH thing is urban legend. House prices in Dublin aren't showing the impact of WFH

Pelezico · 19-08-2020 10:20pm

Springy Turf wrote: »

So your advice would be to not buy now if you plan on remortgaging in the near future? I'd agree with that - but that's a very peculiar position to be in. The interest rates don't have a much lower than 2.2/2.3% to go - particularly if banks are saddled with a load of bad debt.

You say its madness to buy, but you won't directly address any of the very valid reasons why it might be important for someone to buy now.

My advice to my dearest is ..wait. if you want to buy soon, more than likely you will overpay.

Here is one other factor. The spouse who overpays will be blamed for the bad decision.

Negative equity really is that corrosive.

awec · 19-08-2020 10:21pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I agree with the negative outlook on our economy, but all the signals have been out for long enough now. And still no signs of decline in house prices. Whatever it is that is driving the prices up it doesn't seem affected by any of these factors.
Bear in mind that in the last few months alone rents have dropped quite significantly and also there aren't many jobs out there left compared to last year. Why would this not impact the property market?

Nah not really, it's still way too early. You need to wait at least another year to see what happens, property really does move very slow.

So far, prices haven't collapsed and aren't spiraling downward, but there is a negative trend creeping in to some sectors, while others are just holding steady.

Cyrus · 19-08-2020 10:22pm

schmittel wrote: »

In 2008 yes. There won't be ghost estates in Dublin, nobody is suggesting that.

Well you are suggesting demand will be outside the suburbs and builders haven’t provided for it ,

You can understand why

awec · 19-08-2020 10:23pm

smurgen wrote: »

But all other things being equal you agree there's an optimal decision right?

An optimal decision to buy at the bottom or close to it? Yes, I agree 100%. But the overwhelming majority do not get to make this decision.

If everyone waits for the bottom, there will be no bottom. By definition it cannot happen. Such a scenario is an oxymoron.

Assetbacked · 19-08-2020 10:23pm

The soft landing talk is 12% price drops in the next 18 months.

https://www.thejournal.ie/house-prices-housing-ireland-economy-coronavirus-covid-buy-mortgage-5103632-May2020/

"[The ESRI] suggests that the drop in prices is “due to the decline in household disposable income and the sharp fall-off in mortgage market activity which will inevitably result from the administrative closedown implemented by the Irish authorities”."

Mic 1972 · 19-08-2020 10:25pm

awec wrote: »

Nah not really, it's still way too early. You need to wait at least another year to see what happens, property really does move very slow.

So far, prices haven't collapsed and aren't spiraling downward, but there is a negative trend creeping in to some sectors, while others are just holding steady.

There is no negative trend. 2019 = 2020. No difference

A wise investor wouldn't touch a market at its peak while the economy is on the verge of collapse and while return of investment is affected by drop in rents. But somehow people are still bidding over asking prices.

Different story for people who need a house to live in, but they are not the only players in the property market. Investors play a big role too.

hometruths · 19-08-2020 10:26pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Well you are suggesting demand will be outside the suburbs and builders haven’t provided for it ,

You can understand why

A lot has changed in 12 years but I still think Leitrim will display the lowest demand.

And if there is insatiable demand in the suburbs why are builders left with unsold stock?

Springy Turf · 19-08-2020 10:26pm

Pelezico wrote: »

My advice to my dearest is ..wait. if you want to buy soon, more than likely you will overpay.

Here is one other factor. The spouse who overpays will be blamed for the bad decision.

Negative equity really is that corrosive.

Many will have 20% equity in their homes from the get go - so that means a 20% plus drop is needed to go into negative equity. Anyway, for the most part, even negative equity doesn't matter unless you need to move.

Mic 1972 · 19-08-2020 10:28pm

schmittel wrote: »

A lot has changed in 12 years but I still think Leitrim will display the lowest demand.

And if there is insatiable demand in the suburbs why are builders left with unsold stock?

are there unsold stocks?

Cyrus · 19-08-2020 10:31pm

schmittel wrote: »

A lot has changed in 12 years but I still think Leitrim will display the lowest demand.

And if there is insatiable demand in the suburbs why are builders left with unsold stock?

Because we hit affordability limits in Dublin a few years ago at most levels from 500k to 1m. Stuff was/is still selling but more slowly as developers have been slow to reduce prices on new builds which are selling at decent premium to old stock.

I know of estates with houses ranging from 900k to 1.1m they all sold but it took 18 months.

hometruths · 19-08-2020 10:36pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

are there unsold stocks?

Yes, see IT article linked earlier by PropQueries

Perhaps the most notable part of the latest Goodbody report on housing is its conclusion that the stock of unsold properties are firmly on the rise. There have been plenty of reports from the industry of developments not selling out, but Goodbody crunched the numbers and found that in the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide. Most of this occurred in Dublin, where new supply was 6,905 and purchases were 5,093.

Pelezico · 19-08-2020 10:38pm

Springy Turf wrote: »

Many will have 20% equity in their homes from the get go - so that means a 20% plus drop is needed to go into negative equity. Anyway, for the most part, even negative equity doesn't matter unless you need to move.

You seem desperate to buy.

If you were mine, I would caution you.

hometruths · 19-08-2020 10:38pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Because we hit affordability limits in Dublin a few years ago at most levels from 500k to 1m. Stuff was/is still selling but more slowly as developers have been slow to reduce prices on new builds which are selling at decent premium to old stock.

I know of estates with houses ranging from 900k to 1.1m they all sold but it took 18 months.

And do you think any of what Conor Skehan said 5 years ago rings true?

19-08-2020 10:50pm

Pelezico wrote: »

That is a nonsense. Why bother expecting any value for money in any transaction?

What the poster is doing is rationalising a decision which went badly wrong.

That is ok too. We all rationalise every single day.

My decision didn't go badly wrong, don't know Why you would think it did?

OwlsZat · 19-08-2020 11:15pm

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, see IT article linked earlier by PropQueries

Thanks for this. Heard anecdotal evidence of same so nice to see it backed up!

Bass Reeves · 19-08-2020 11:18pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Well if he bought in 2005, he is still under water. In my world, that is bad.

Rationalising the decision...he is still living there and deriving a utility value from the house but he has paid over the years.

He may still be paying if he does not have any equity and cannot avail of good mortgage deals.

If he bought in 2005 and is on a tracker he on the best sure fire winner in history. His tracker would be in the 0.5-0.75% range. He had 2-3 bad years from 2009-2011 after that he was home free. He probably got a 110% @ 4-5 times earnings mortgage. If he borrowed 350K over 25 years his repayments at present are sub 1300/month and he pay a bit with 400K back over the 25 years and that is including the 2-3 years he was paying back at 3-4%

Mic 1972 wrote: »

There is no negative trend. 2019 = 2020. No difference

A wise investor wouldn't touch a market at its peak while the economy is on the verge of collapse and while return of investment is affected by drop in rents. But somehow people are still bidding over asking prices.

Different story for people who need a house to live in, but they are not the only players in the property market. Investors play a big role too.

Investors have not been buying houses or apartments in Dublin to any great extent since 2016. The exceptions is REITS

Mic 1972 · 19-08-2020 11:49pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Investors have not been buying houses or apartments in Dublin to any great extent since 2016. The exceptions is REITS

dont wanna sound smart but what's your source for such statement?
1beds being rented in cc are evidence of how many people buys them to let

bdmc5 · 20-08-2020 12:40am

Pelezico wrote: »

Good value for money is when the house that went for x last year is x minus 15% this year. Boy, do you feel good knowing you got value for money and your neighbour overpaid.

Oh...and he is better at golf than you....but he overpaid.

Not everyone harbours this resentment of neighbours who paid less or more for homes or is so obsessed about buying at the lowest possible price. Some of neighbours paid 20k more than us for their homes and they are over the moon to have a place to finally call their own and move on a with life in a area they love.

I’m relieved to not have to pay more for same type of home but this vindictive pleasure you seem to relish are spending less is far from many first time buyer thoughts

smellyoldboot · 20-08-2020 12:49am

Your buy to let investment isn't going to work out lads. Drop the act. When Angela grabs snivelling Micky by the balls the game is up. Down down we go.

Springy Turf · 20-08-2020 1:27am

Pelezico wrote: »

My advice to my dearest is ..wait. if you want to buy soon, more than likely you will overpay.

Here is one other factor. The spouse who overpays will be blamed for the bad decision.

Negative equity really is that corrosive.

And you still haven't addressed some of the reasons why buying now is right for some people.

Here's a scenario for you:

- A Couple with a 2 almost school age children and a deposit saved of 100,000.
- They are currently renting a 2 bedroom apartment at 1900 euros p/m outside their preferred schools catchment area
- They are both working from home for the foreseeable future due to CoViD
- There are currently no suitable rental properties inside the catchment area. If one comes up, they would be committed to a new 12 month lease, and likely have to pay additional rent.
- They have found a 3 bed house at €350,000 that suits them, with a mortgage of 1100 per month, near the school they want their kids to go to.
- They know that houses near this school in their price range come on the market 2-3 times a year.
- The house will suit their needs for at least 10 years.

So I can see 3 options:

1: Stay in the current place, deal with the stress of the lack of space and garden for a 12-15 months and risk missing out on getting their kids into their preferred school.
2: Hope that a rental comes up in their school area, and then commit to a 12 month lease at higher rent then they are currently paying.
3: Buy the house that suits them with the mortgage they can afford, accepting that the market will likely drop by some unknown amount, over some unknown timeframe

Which do they go for?

I'd be interested to see what other posters think as well.

Hubertj · 20-08-2020 6:46am

Assetbacked wrote: »

The soft landing talk is 12% price drops in the next 18 months.

https://www.thejournal.ie/house-prices-housing-ireland-economy-coronavirus-covid-buy-mortgage-5103632-May2020/

"[The ESRI] suggests that the drop in prices is “due to the decline in household disposable income and the sharp fall-off in mortgage market activity which will inevitably result from the administrative closedown implemented by the Irish authorities”."

That’s from May though? Interesting to see if their opinion has changed now..more or less severe decreases over a shorter or longer period.

cubatahavana · 20-08-2020 7:42am

Springy Turf wrote: »

And you still haven't addressed some of the reasons why buying now is right for some people.

Here's a scenario for you:

- A Couple with a 2 almost school age children and a deposit saved of 100,000.
- They are currently renting a 2 bedroom apartment at 1900 euros p/m outside their preferred schools catchment area
- They are both working from home for the foreseeable future due to CoViD
- There are currently no suitable rental properties inside the catchment area. If one comes up, they would be committed to a new 12 month lease, and likely have to pay additional rent.
- They have found a 3 bed house at €350,000 that suits them, with a mortgage of 1100 per month, near the school they want their kids to go to.
- They know that houses near this school in their price range come on the market 2-3 times a year.
- The house will suit their needs for at least 10 years.

So I can see 3 options:

1: Stay in the current place, deal with the stress of the lack of space and garden for a 12-15 months and risk missing out on getting their kids into their preferred school.
2: Hope that a rental comes up in their school area, and then commit to a 12 month lease at higher rent then they are currently paying.
3: Buy the house that suits them with the mortgage they can afford, accepting that the market will likely drop by some unknown amount, over some unknown timeframe

Which do they go for?

I'd be interested to see what other posters think as well.

Of course no.3, having said that, someone that can save 100k with a 2 year old probably can afford more than a 350k

I would still buy. Once you can afford it, go for it

Bass Reeves · 20-08-2020 8:07am

cubatahavana wrote: »

Of course no.3, having said that, someone that can save 100k with a 2 year old probably can afford more than a 350k

I would still buy. Once you can afford it, go for it

350k requires 100k in joint incomes to achieve the multiplier for a mortgage. Would a bank give an exemption to a couple with two young kids even at 4 times salary it s 87k joint income. They may have income not included such as OT or bonus. For that matter maybe part of the deposit may have come from an inheritance or they could be in there thirties.

PropQueries · 20-08-2020 8:38am

FYI. Article today in Irish Independent: “Blanchardstown Shopping Centre owner Blackstone is prepared to agree a consensual surrender of control of the asset if lenders including AIB don’t cut it a debt deal, sources have confirmed to the Irish Independent. Case shows how Covid losses are shifting rapidly from retailers, through landlords and onto the banks”

Irish Independent article here:https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/blackstone-and-aib-in-standoff-over-blanchardstown-shopping-centre-debt-39463682.html

hometruths · 20-08-2020 8:46am

PropQueries wrote: »

FYI. Article today in Irish Independent: “Blanchardstown Shopping Centre owner Blackstone is prepared to agree a consensual surrender of control of the asset if lenders including AIB don’t cut it a debt deal, sources have confirmed to the Irish Independent. Case shows how Covid losses are shifting rapidly from retailers, through landlords and onto the banks”

Irish Independent article here:https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/blackstone-and-aib-in-standoff-over-blanchardstown-shopping-centre-debt-39463682.html

Nothing to worry about here, this time it's a health crisis, not a financial crisis. Sure the banks are grand now.

Bass Reeves · 20-08-2020 8:56am

PropQueries wrote: »

FYI. Article today in Irish Independent: “Blanchardstown Shopping Centre owner Blackstone is prepared to agree a consensual surrender of control of the asset if lenders including AIB don’t cut it a debt deal, sources have confirmed to the Irish Independent. Case shows how Covid losses are shifting rapidly from retailers, through landlords and onto the banks”

Irish Independent article here:https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/blackstone-and-aib-in-standoff-over-blanchardstown-shopping-centre-debt-39463682.html

Blackstone is a private equity firm(vulture fund to some) from the souls of it there are multiple lenders to it. I presume they bought the center between2010-2014.

A lot of these are like high stake poker games. The banks want Blackstone to pay it borrowings Blackstone is seeing if it can get a discount on the loan

Lolle06 · 20-08-2020 9:08am

bdmc5 wrote: »

Not everyone harbours this resentment of neighbours who paid less or more for homes or is so obsessed about buying at the lowest possible price. Some of neighbours paid 20k more than us for their homes and they are over the moon to have a place to finally call their own and move on a with life in a area they love.

I’m relieved to not have to pay more for same type of home but this vindictive pleasure you seem to relish are spending less is far from many first time buyer thoughts

I agree. If people think like that - where would they stop? How would they feel if one neighbour gets his house for pittance b/c they are SW tenants, another pays half of his house with his windfall from an personal injury claim, while another one pays his mortgage off within 3 years, b/c he works abroad and earns tax free money. Every persons circumstance is different. In the majority of cases, they just want to live somewhere where they are not constantly risking to get a notice by their LL for numerous reasons. They just want to settle. If they can afford the price, they pay it - no matter if the value will fall or rise in future.

PropQueries · 20-08-2020 9:15am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Blackstone is a private equity firm(vulture fund to some) from the souls of it there are multiple lenders to it. I presume they bought the center between2010-2014.

A lot of these are like high stake poker games. The banks want Blackstone to pay it borrowings Blackstone is seeing if it can get a discount on the loan

Looks like they bought Blanchardstown Shopping Centre in 2016 for €950m with most of it funded through borrowings (AIG and investment bank Morgan Stanley, alongside AIB, are owed €580m and Goldman Sachs owed €150m of less well secured mezzanine debt according to the article).

I'd assume they just want out and if they can easily pass the cost onto their lenders, I don't blame them.

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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