Snow risk Tuesday night in to Wednesday in the midlands and possibly the east

kkontour · 13-01-2013 10:01pm

But the charts cant be trusted. We've seen the changes between runs over the past few days.
The weather does not follow the models, the models merely attempts to predict the weather.
Believe;)

BEASTERLY · 13-01-2013 10:02pm

fr wishy washy wrote: »

Great I seem to be at 650m here in West Wicklow

LOL, highest house in Ireland?

Oarrack Bama · 13-01-2013 10:02pm

whitebriar wrote: »

I never gave an opinion on tuesday or wenesday,I actually thought I'd added a question mark to my last post.
I do think somethings up though and there is potential for some areas to see potentially a lot of snow this week whilst others have rain.

The likes of this thread is meant to be a bit of fun as much as anything.
The antagonisers posting should really get a life or just relax,there's no need to be aiming fire at the op,making an effort at his hobby :mad:

cue roll eye smiley's and more antagonism now I s'pose,quit it folks,no ones listening to that only yourselves,the rest of us are here to enjoy the ride
Life and death isn't happening because there's a few threads in the weather forum.

I don't mind. Water off a ducks back. Wait till Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and we will see who is right and wrong;) Quite confident I have to say and the 3 main models back this up.

Iancar29 · 13-01-2013 10:05pm

fr wishy washy wrote: »

Great I seem to be at 650m here in West Wicklow

:rolleyes:

Larbre34 · 13-01-2013 10:07pm

Distinct lack of moderation around here today, and I'm not talking about the sort carried out by mods

Gonzo · 13-01-2013 10:10pm

dont see massive volumes of snow fall from this either, we will propably end up in a situation similiar to today with wet snow and sleet turning to rain with proper snow reserved for the mountains. Different story for the Uk tho they will propably get buried in over a foot of snow over the coming week. Quite a bit needs to change before we are confident of seeing proper snow here.

Oarrack Bama · 13-01-2013 10:16pm

I think posters are misreading this thread. I never said "massive" amounts of snow.

FWVT · 13-01-2013 10:21pm

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

I think posters are misreading this thread. I never said "massive" amounts of snow.

:cool:

Here we are talking about significant disruptive frontal snow fall for a good portion of the country - something not seen in very many years - so it's not nailed yet but certainly potential is there.

omicron · 13-01-2013 10:21pm

whitebriar wrote: »

I never gave an opinion on tuesday or wenesday,I actually thought I'd added a question mark to my last post.
I do think somethings up though and there is potential for some areas to see potentially a lot of snow this week whilst others have rain.

The likes of this thread is meant to be a bit of fun as much as anything.
The antagonisers posting should really get a life or just relax,there's no need to be aiming fire at the op,making an effort at his hobby :mad:

cue roll eye smiley's and more antagonism now I s'pose,quit it folks,no ones listening to that only yourselves,the rest of us are here to enjoy the ride
Life and death isn't happening because there's a few threads in the weather forum.

I think people are right to point out that the thread title was (and is still a bit) alarmist, and that there is not a serious risk of a heavy snow event. Many people who read this forum, especially at this time of year, cannot interpret the charts, and may take the OP's post as gospel, and may warn others about an event that isn't going to happen.

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Nothing wrong with that. It's fine. We don't need sub 528 DAM for snow in this situation.

In a maritime air flow as this will be, we need 528 and lower. The 528 line will at best be somewhere over Wales, maybe even further east. ( doesn't rule out front edge snow though, but for lying, persistent snow 528 will be needed)

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

I think posters are misreading this thread. I never said "massive" amounts of snow.

The title originally read ''Heavy snow Tuesday night in to Wednesday''. Heavy snow to most people implies a lot of snow. How did you intend it to be interpreted?

BEASTERLY · 13-01-2013 10:22pm

whitebriar wrote: »

I never gave an opinion on tuesday or wenesday,I actually thought I'd added a question mark to my last post.
I do think somethings up though and there is potential for some areas to see potentially a lot of snow this week whilst others have rain.

The likes of this thread is meant to be a bit of fun as much as anything.
The antagonisers posting should really get a life or just relax,there's no need to be aiming fire at the op,making an effort at his hobby :mad:

cue roll eye smiley's and more antagonism now I s'pose,quit it folks,no ones listening to that only yourselves,the rest of us are here to enjoy the ride
Life and death isn't happening because there's a few threads in the weather forum.

So a thread is started warning of a risk of heavy snow. He made the forecast based on an opinion, doesnt back it up with why he think it will happen, just post charts but doesnt explain how this will cause the precip to fall as snow.

Now you're saying nobody can challenge that opinion? Even though I have posted charts and explained why I think these show that this will be a non event. But sure lets all be nice and agree, no matter what the charts say.

Deep Easterly · 13-01-2013 10:22pm

whitebriar wrote: »

The antagonisers posting should really get a life or just relax,there's no need to be aiming fire at the op,making an effort at his hobby :mad:

We are all hobbyists here so don't really get that point, but from a hobbyist point of view I think this forum is becoming messy with the amount of similar related threads open. It is confusing, especially for new members and those who just want to get a quick forecast.

Eastcoastryan · 13-01-2013 10:28pm

Met Eireann seem to think there is a fair chance of snow on Wednesday so I think the OP should be cut some slack here. I think the only thing that is missing is the word "potential" in the title.

Edit: I just noticed the word "risk" in the title. Evelyn said this week would be tricky and wintry!

maquiladora · 13-01-2013 10:29pm

Haven't been reading this thread.

Just thought I'd put this in here from the TV forecast tonight.

BEASTERLY · 13-01-2013 10:33pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Haven't been reading this thread.

Just thought I'd be this in here from the TV forecast tonight.

Yep the potential is there. If the 12z GFS and UKMO verified it wouldnt happen. On the other hand that output will change. So im not dismissive of the idea but i think based on this afternoon's output that the op's forecast is very premature.

leahyl · 13-01-2013 10:35pm

Epic forecast from Evelyn I have to say!

omicron · 13-01-2013 10:35pm

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Met Eireann seem to think there is a fair chance of snow on Wednesday so I think the OP should be cut some slack here. I think the only thing that is missing is the word "potential" in the title.

Edit: I just noticed the word "risk" in the title. Evelyn said this week would be tricky and wintry!

Risk wasn't in it originally.

Again agree with Beasterly, a change in the current output could make this event happen.

dsaint1 · 13-01-2013 10:36pm

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Met Eireann seem to think there is a fair chance of snow on Wednesday so I think the OP should be cut some slack here. I think the only thing that is missing is the word "potential" in the title.

Edit: I just noticed the word "risk" in the title. Evelyn said this week would be tricky and wintry!

The word "possibly" is also in the title!

mickger844posts · 13-01-2013 10:37pm

Excellent forecast from Evelyn explaining the Battleground set up and uncertainty in forecasting the week ahead. Maybe for once we will be on the right side of the front

Oarrack Bama · 13-01-2013 10:41pm

omicron wrote: »

Again agree with Beasterly, a change in the current output could make this event happen.

So either way i'm wrong with you:rolleyes:

The forecast is fine. It reflects the charts as they are and some intuition. Perfectly happy with it.

BEASTERLY · 13-01-2013 10:47pm

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

So either way i'm wrong with you:rolleyes:

The forecast is fine. It reflects the charts as they are and some intuition. Perfectly happy with it.

Can you explain this please? Maritime airmass. No cold pool. We'll need atleast -7 850 hpa temps to account for this. Current output doesn't even show -4 covering half the country. Current output shows the 528 dam line 200 miles east at the key time frame. Given the airmass and lack of a cold pool, we'll need 524 or lower. Current output shows temps and dewpoints a couple of degrees above zero. That's what the current output shows. What other variable are balancing these off to make conditions favorable for snow.

Hopefully this conversation will be irrelevant after the 18z, with favourable conditions even reaching Cork! :O

BEASTERLY · 13-01-2013 10:52pm

Well the 18z is a downgrade. Im sorry. IF this run verified, this event will not happen, no maybe about it!

Eastcoastryan · 13-01-2013 10:55pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well the 18z is a downgrade. Im sorry. IF this run verified, this event will not happen, no maybe about it!

Correct me if I'm wrong but does the next frame not show the cold air pushing the mild air back further west??

cherryghost · 13-01-2013 10:56pm

I have to tend to agree with DE and Beasterly to name a few, we're not even near the magic 528 DAM line at this point. It's over in Wales.

omicron · 13-01-2013 10:57pm

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

So either way i'm wrong with you:rolleyes:

The forecast is fine. It reflects the charts as they are and some intuition. Perfectly happy with it.

In my opinion, yes your forecast is wrong.

Your OP in no way reflects the charts.

The ECM chart closest to the forecast period shows -4 uppers over most of the country, -6 over the east. Not cold enugh for snow in a maritime air flow.

The 12z GFS at this time shows even warmer uppers, barely -4 in the east.
The 528 dam line for this chart is over Wales - no snow with this air flow.

The UKMO is similar to the ECM in uppers, although the cold recedes eastwards more quickly.

The GEM is similar to the GFS uppers, although the airflow is more southerly. Again, no snow.

So what charts is your forecast based on?

NB, 18z GFS has come out since I started this post, airflow has swung more to the east, but still no change in uppers, -4 won't be enough without a cold pool, barring maybe a few mins of front edge snow.

BEASTERLY · 13-01-2013 10:57pm

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong but does the next frame not show the cold air pushing the mild air back further west??

No, the cold retreats back a small bit.

muckisluck · 13-01-2013 11:00pm

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong but does the next frame not show the cold air pushing the mild air back further west??

Don't worry . Around here you'll be corrected very promptly without asking:)

omicron · 13-01-2013 11:02pm

muckisluck wrote: »

Don't worry . Around here you'll be corrected very promptly without asking:)

Would you rather a forum where anyone could post any claim they wanted without question? I'm no expert, and personally welcome anyone pointing out if I'm wrong, as long as there is evidence, as this can help me and anyone else who reads it to improve their knowledge. No one can learn if they can't see their own and other peoples mistakes.

Villain · 13-01-2013 11:03pm

Arguing about a forecast more than +24 is a bit pointless really, the 18z is moving things a bit further East i.e. downgrade but we could see upgrades yet. There is a risk or potential depending on how you look at it. The ops forecast is already outdated now with new information available so maybe rather than question and argue post an alternative?

Senna · 13-01-2013 11:12pm

Anyone want to speculate on the probability of snow in London in the coming days?

FWVT · 13-01-2013 11:16pm

Senna wrote: »

Anyone want to speculate on the probability of snow in London in the coming days?

Nope

BEASTERLY · 13-01-2013 11:17pm

muckisluck wrote: »

Don't worry . Around here you'll be corrected very promptly without asking:)

A ridiculous post. Not made any less sinister with the use of a smiley face. This is the type of post and attitude that has caused a few of our best contributors to leave. I may seem a little blunt but to be honest I don't care who I offend or please with my posts. Nor should I or anybody else. I'm playing the posts not the poster.

Gonzo · 13-01-2013 11:18pm

Sky News mentioned that the UK Met Office has just raised the alarm to Stage 3 which is one step below a National Emergency with severe snow and blizzard conditions 90% likely over many parts of the UK over the next 4 to 5 days. It's looking increasingly like Game Over for the whole of Ireland, except maybe higher elevations. This could be a hard week to swallow for many of us here looking on at the winter wonderland that many central and eastern UK regions will enjoy very soon.

Scubadevils · 13-01-2013 11:22pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Sky News mentioned that the UK Met Office has just raised the alarm to Stage 3 which is one step below a National Emergency with severe snow and blizzard conditions 90% likely over many parts of the UK over the next 4 to 5 days. It's looking increasingly like Game Over for the whole of Ireland, except maybe higher elevations.

Feckers! I know most in the UK won't take that view but I can only imagine the excitement here if we were faced with a national emergency due to potential snow! - much and all as that doesn't really make sense...

Senna · 13-01-2013 11:22pm

FWVT wrote: »

Nope

Nope "i don't want to speculate" or nope "no snow"?

drquirky · 13-01-2013 11:23pm

Scubadevils wrote: »

Feckers! I know most in the UK won't take that view but I can only imagine the excitement here if we were faced with a national emergency due to potential snow! - much and all as that doesn't really make sense...

My models are showing a slight push front stalling over Greenland at 5468 thz this should swing towards Ireland and has the potential to deliver up to a foot of snow probably Wednesday. That's my forecast and I'm sticking to it!

Oarrack Bama · 13-01-2013 11:23pm

Villain wrote: »

Arguing about a forecast more than +24 is a bit pointless really, the 18z is moving things a bit further East i.e. downgrade but we could see upgrades yet. There is a risk or potential depending on how you look at it. The ops forecast is already outdated now with new information available so maybe rather than question and argue post an alternative?

No need to change the op atm. It reflects cross model agreement of the risk. If there is a significant change tomorrow obviously I will change it. It's fine for the moment though.

ninebeanrows · 13-01-2013 11:23pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Sky News mentioned that the UK Met Office has just raised the alarm to Stage 3 which is one step below a National Emergency with severe snow and blizzard conditions 90% likely over many parts of the UK over the next 4 to 5 days. It's looking increasingly like Game Over for the whole of Ireland, except maybe higher elevations.

What a crazy and stupid comment based on nothing.

The 18z which isn't great and the UKM is still better gives the east and north snow.

60hrs

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011318/gfs-2-60.png?18?18

66hrs

gfs-2-66.png?18?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011318/gfs-2-72.png?18?18

Then a little later with another Atlantic attack..

108hrs

gfs-2-108.png?18

114hrs

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011318/gfs-2-114.png?18?18

Now recall that the UKM model has this all pushed further west with the cold incursion greater and MUCH greater past 120hrs..

So your comment really lacks any support.

Slashermcguirk · 13-01-2013 11:24pm

People talking here as if it will be a huge shock if it snows. Its not like it hasn't snowed in Ireland in recent times. Snowed this morning for example (though very briefly and very little but still did despite not being forecast). It was freezing and snowed several times in January 2010. It snowed almost non stop from end November to end December 2010. Temperatures fell around the country to -17 if i remember correctly around Carlow. I know this was very unusual but it still happened for weeks in a row.

It really wouldn't be that huge a surprise if it snowed this week, Irish winters seem to have become much colder in recent years. I don't know why people seem to think that a snow event would be so extraordinary in Ireland since it has happened in two of the last three winters. Also why must people continue to exaggerate about the snow that falls in the UK compared to Ireland. Constant mentions of us missing out and UK getting buried again. It does not snow in the UK often, just like it doesn't snow that often here. Yes Scotland sees a lot more than us but London for example sees very similar amounts to Dublin. Winter temperatures in London are also nearly always identical to those of Dublin.

Hopefully we will all see a bit of the white stuff but i for one would hardly be shocked if it did happen.

omicron · 13-01-2013 11:28pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

A ridiculous post. Not made any less sinister with the use of a smiley face. This is the type of post and attitude that has caused a few of our best contributors to leave. I may seem a little blunt but to be honest I don't care who I offend or please with my posts. Nor should I or anybody else. I'm playing the posts not the poster.

Left twice before but winter charts keep bringing me back! :P

Senna wrote: »

Nope "i don't want to speculate" or nope "no snow"?

Snow is pretty likely over the next few days in eastern England, if you want regular updates, M.T. does a British forecasts section in his thread at the top of the forum, updated every morning.

Villain · 13-01-2013 11:30pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

This is the type of post and attitude that has caused a few of our best contributors to leave.

You know well there were many reasons why these so called best contributors left, one being they have other places to post.

Why you and others get so worked up about someone's forecast is beyond me especially in this scenario where there is huge uncertainty.

omicron · 13-01-2013 11:31pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

People talking here as if it will be a huge shock if it snows. Its not like it hasn't snowed in Ireland in recent times. Snowed this morning for example (though very briefly and very little but still did despite not being forecast). It was freezing and snowed several times in January 2010. It snowed almost non stop from end November to end December 2010. Temperatures fell around the country to -17 if i remember correctly around Carlow. I know this was very unusual but it still happened for weeks in a row.

It really wouldn't be that huge a surprise if it snowed this week, Irish winters seem to have become much colder in recent years. I don't know why people seem to think that a snow event would be so extraordinary in Ireland since it has happened in two of the last three winters. Also why must people continue to exaggerate about the snow that falls in the UK compared to Ireland. Constant mentions of us missing out and UK getting buried again. It does not snow in the UK often, just like it doesn't snow that often here. Yes Scotland sees a lot more than us but London for example sees very similar amounts to Dublin. Winter temperatures in London are also nearly always identical to those of Dublin.

Hopefully we will all see a bit of the white stuff but i for one would hardly be shocked if it did happen.

No one here doubts the possibility of snow actually occurring in our climate, the doubts are as to whether it can occur in the next few days based on current model output.

The UK does tend to get more snow in the current type of setup though obviously not in all setups.

downwiththatsor · 13-01-2013 11:34pm

omicron wrote: »

No one here doubts the possibility of snow actually occurring in our climate, the doubts are as to whether it can occur in the next few days based on current model output.

The UK does tend to get more snow in the current type of setup though obviously not in all setups.

I agree but think its frontal boundary snow that is the rare occurence especially the further south and west you go, i think i remember it happening twice that i can remember, once at night and once during the day.
Snow in 2009 & 2010 came from the North and East and was not overly heavy.

BEASTERLY · 13-01-2013 11:36pm

omicron wrote: »

Left twice before but winter charts keep bringing me back! :P

Snow is pretty likely over the next few days in eastern England, if you want regular updates, M.T. does a British forecasts section in his thread at the top of the forum, updated every morning.

Which one though? The girls name that's actually a town somewhere foreign or the irish revolutionary? :pac: Or somebody totally different...

Ill try to head up the mountains on Wednesday, ill bring back pictures for ya all.

T'is not the same though.

compsys · 13-01-2013 11:37pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

People talking here as if it will be a huge shock if it snows. Its not like it hasn't snowed in Ireland in recent times. Snowed this morning for example (though very briefly and very little but still did despite not being forecast). It was freezing and snowed several times in January 2010. It snowed almost non stop from end November to end December 2010. Temperatures fell around the country to -17 if i remember correctly around Carlow. I know this was very unusual but it still happened for weeks in a row.

It really wouldn't be that huge a surprise if it snowed this week, Irish winters seem to have become much colder in recent years. I don't know why people seem to think that a snow event would be so extraordinary in Ireland since it has happened in two of the last three winters. Also why must people continue to exaggerate about the snow that falls in the UK compared to Ireland. Constant mentions of us missing out and UK getting buried again. It does not snow in the UK often, just like it doesn't snow that often here. Yes Scotland sees a lot more than us but London for example sees very similar amounts to Dublin. Winter temperatures in London are also nearly always identical to those of Dublin.

Hopefully we will all see a bit of the white stuff but i for one would hardly be shocked if it did happen.

Decent point. Particularly in relation to London, which over the past few years has actually seen quite little snow.

During the 'big freeze' of December 2010 there was a phenomenal amount of snow in Ireland on several days leading up to Christmas (as we can all well remember). I think during that cold snap it snowed just once in London. I remember because a good friend came back over from London for Xmas and couldn't get over how much snow there was in Dublin.

Anyway, we wait in hope for the snow here. Though it's amazing how quickly and easily Arctic and Siberian air can push Westwards into Europe sometimes and yet struggles so much to push the final 75 miles or so into Ireland.

God damn the Atlantic...

BEASTERLY · 13-01-2013 11:39pm

Villain wrote: »

You know well there were many reasons why these so called best contributors left, one being they have other places to post.

Why you and others get so worked up about someone's forecast is beyond me especially in this scenario where there is huge uncertainty.

I'm not getting worked up over the forecast. I'm getting 'worked up' about the dogged resistance to a differing opinion to the forecast.

13-01-2013 11:40pm

For snowlovers everywhere!

http://www.mymodernmet.com/profiles/blogs/simon-beck-snow-art

Artist Simon Beck must really love the cold weather! Along the frozen lakes of Savoie, France, he spends days plodding through the snow in raquettes (snowshoes), creating these sensational patterns of snow art. Working for 5-9 hours a day, each final piece is typically the size of three soccer fields! The geometric forms range in mathematical patterns and shapes that create stunning, sometimes 3D, designs when viewed from higher levels.

How long these magnificent geometric forms survive is completely dependent on the we

BEASTERLY · 13-01-2013 11:43pm

compsys wrote: »

Anyway, we wait in hope for the snow here. Though it's amazing how quickly and easily Arctic and Siberian air can push Westwards into Europe sometimes and yet struggles so much to push the final 75 miles or so into Ireland.

God damn the Atlantic...

Yea, very frustrating. I think we have been incredibly unlucky this winter. Many time the building blocks have been there, only to be brought crumbling down by a pesky shortwave.

drquirky · 13-01-2013 11:51pm

Any comments on my forecast ? I'm waiting on the next model release coming from Ames, Iowa @ 9pm CST

omicron · 13-01-2013 11:53pm

drquirky wrote: »

Any comments on my forecast ? I'm waiting on the next model release coming from Ames, Iowa @ 9pm CST

Comments are apparently discouraged these days, but without charts it's hard to judge it! Wednesday does seem to be the well on the wrong side of marginal at the moment though.

Super-Rush · 13-01-2013 11:54pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

What a crazy and stupid comment based on nothing.

What a terrible post for a mod to make.

Way to encourage people to post on your forum.