367 Days

Coneygree · 01-01-2021 2:51pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Opinions please on

Will Cheltenham happen

Yes but I wouldn't rule out it being put back a few weeks...which will lead to a huge domino effect for Aintree/Punchestown etc.

Will we have crowds

Owners/connections as much as it'll be imo

Will Irish horses travel

Yes but possibly a week or two early. Logistically this could be a nightmare.

Will Irish stable staff travel

Bare minimum/reduced staff, I'd imagine those allowed to travel will be worked to the bone for the week to make up lack of numbers.

Will Irish fans travel

Definitely not, 100% certain of that. If we're allowed to leave the country by then at all we'd be lucky I'd say.

Vaccines could save it but want opinions

Vaccines won't be administered to the general public by then Rog, no way. Only way things like Cheltenham will resume is when the vast majority of the general population are vaccinated.

RivetingRoger · 01-01-2021 3:13pm

I think you might be looking at our vaccine roll out there Coneygree. The Brits have more vaccines and are pushing it on much quicker than as are.
There may well be very limited numbers from Ireland travelling but I'd say there will be more in the gates than you expect.
Could see connections, members and a few thousand general sale tickets to UK fans. Bare in mind the UK still saying they expect large numbers vaccd by spring

We on the other hand........

I'd say you could well see Irish horses, Irish staff but UK only fans
Better than nothing for sure

Coneygree · 01-01-2021 3:22pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

I think you might be looking at our vaccine roll out there Coneygree. The Brits have more vaccines and are pushing it on much quicker than as are.
There may well be very limited numbers from Ireland travelling but I'd say there will be more in the gates than you expect.
Could see connections, members and a few thousand general sale tickets to UK fans. Bare in mind the UK still saying they expect large numbers vaccd by spring

We on the other hand........

I'd say you could well see Irish horses, Irish staff but UK only fans
Better than nothing for sure

I still think even if vaccines miraculously are pumped out, there will be such a bad taste in people's mouths over Cheltenham last year, which got such an amount of hate from the general public and media (a lot of it undeserved) that there will be serious pressure on the powers that be to ensure there's few in attendance. So yeah, maybe connections and a selection of members at best.

Pogue eile · 01-01-2021 3:28pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

I think you might be looking at our vaccine roll out there Coneygree. The Brits have more vaccines and are pushing it on much quicker than as are.
There may well be very limited numbers from Ireland travelling but I'd say there will be more in the gates than you expect.
Could see connections, members and a few thousand general sale tickets to UK fans. Bare in mind the UK still saying they expect large numbers vaccd by spring

We on the other hand........

I'd say you could well see Irish horses, Irish staff but UK only fans
Better than nothing for sure

I for one certainly take anything the UK government says at face value

:D

I also don't think you fully understand how vaccines work! The UK administered their first vaccines 26 days ago, currently there are less that 1,000 vaccinated - that is from a population of over 66 Million.

''we on the other hand'' no idea what you are suggesting here? Are you genuinely suggesting that the UK have dealt with COVID better than Ireland??

kksaints · 01-01-2021 3:31pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Opinions please on
Will Cheltenham happen
Yes, racing is going ahead fine atm so I don't see Cheltenham been any different.
Will we have crowds
Owners yes and a limited number of others (less than 2,000) barring the Cheltenham area gets a very large number of cases
Will Irish horses travel
Yes. The ban on travel between Ireland and UK will probably be ended by the end of January
Will Irish stable staff travel
Yes but they might have to quarantine for 14 days beforehand and they might be banned from anything other than the stables area. Trainers and owners might not be allowed travel only grooms
Will Irish fans travel
No, only the bare minimum of people will be allowed. Would be ridiculously stupid to allow fans travel over as there will still be significant virus spread by March.
Vaccines could save it but want opinions

Cheltenham got a lot of bad press last year. They won't be taking many chances with spectators this year.

RivetingRoger · 01-01-2021 4:02pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

I for one certainly take anything the UK government says at face value :D

I also don't think you fully understand how vaccines work! The UK administered their first vaccines 26 days ago, currently there are less that 1,000 vaccinated - that is from a population of over 66 Million.

''we on the other hand'' no idea what you are suggesting here? Are you genuinely suggesting that the UK have dealt with COVID better than Ireland??

If your only contribution here is to scoff and insult then kindly jog on to another thread
Dr Pogue

Pogue eile · 01-01-2021 4:23pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

If your only contribution here is to scoff and insult then kindly jog on to another thread
Dr Pogue

Wow just wow, this takes irony to a new level completely. You are ignoring the points made or accepting you were talking through your hat?

Gavin "shels" · 05-01-2021 1:40pm

10 weeks!

longshotvalue · 07-01-2021 3:42pm

Flip sake the Grand Annual, has been moved from Friday. Disaster, its been a week saver on loads of occasions . Mares chase in that spot

RivetingRoger · 07-01-2021 4:32pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Flip sake the Grand Annual, has been moved from Friday. Disaster, its been a week saver on loads of occasions . Mares chase in that spot

Just throw the second mortgage on Beni
She will hose up presuming PTKO goes for CC

stretchaq · 07-01-2021 4:38pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Just throw the second mortgage on Beni
She will hose up presuming PTKO goes for CC

Will she turn up there though or anywhere??

Hasn’t being seen yet this year

Pogue eile · 07-01-2021 4:38pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Just throw the second mortgage on Beni
She will hose up presuming PTKO goes for CC

I have learnt the hard way that mares, both in horse racing and in general life, are far too unreliable and will ultimately cost you shed loads of money!

longshotvalue · 07-01-2021 5:05pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Just throw the second mortgage on Beni
She will hose up presuming PTKO goes for CC

Ill be going Le Bag oi Roi at a big price if she goes . If bennie goes hurdling, it'll be winnable.

famagusta · 07-01-2021 5:08pm

aidankkk wrote:

Ill be going Le Bag oi Roi at a big price if she goes . If bennie goes hurdling, it'll be winnable.

Le bague is entered in the broodmare sales aidan

Coneygree · 07-01-2021 5:08pm

Wouldn't surprise me if she is retired tbh. Depends on what Rich wants. With Salsaretta flopping so bad this season he might be pressured into running Benie but she's nearly 10.

She's the only one I have backed for this but I'm sorry I didn't pull the trigger on Colreevy when I had the chance.

IAMAMORON · 07-01-2021 5:14pm

Coneygree wrote: »

Wouldn't surprise me if she is retired tbh. Depends on what Rich wants. With Salsaretta flopping so bad this season he might be pressured into running Benie but she's nearly 10.

She's the only one I have backed for this but I'm sorry I didn't pull the trigger on Colreevy when I had the chance.

I thought Colreevy ran poorly at the festival last year, I lost a fortune on her.

Is it possible that she goes into season early like Apples Jade? I mean she looked bullet proof before the festival, albeit Concertista was deadly I still thought she was good for a place at least. She looked good the last time out but it might be worth noting if you fancy her for the festival, she did not run well the last time.

Coneygree · 07-01-2021 5:22pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I thought Colreevy ran poorly at the festival last year, I lost a fortune on her.

Is it possible that she goes into season early like Apples Jade? I mean she looked bullet proof before the festival, albeit Concertista was deadly I still thought she was good for a place at least. She looked good the last time out but it might be worth noting if you fancy her for the festival, she did not run well the last time.

Same, got stung badly...but she's looked lively over fences this year and is the only one standing out to me.

I thought she ran nicely against Honeysuckle, she just looked every bit her age.

lemush · 07-01-2021 5:27pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Ill be going Le Bag oi Roi at a big price if she goes . If bennie goes hurdling, it'll be winnable.

Retired.

longshotvalue · 07-01-2021 5:36pm

famagusta wrote: »

Le bague is entered in the broodmare sales aidan

Didn't hear that. Hadn't backed it yet. Thats one of my horses that i wouldn't have been able to change my mind gone (probably no harm)

IAMAMORON · 07-01-2021 6:44pm

Coneygree wrote: »

Same, got stung badly...but she's looked lively over fences this year and is the only one standing out to me.

I thought she ran nicely against Honeysuckle, she just looked every bit her age.

I think she is very good, but I will not follow her again if she goes to Cheltenham. As I said she underperformed - mares will do that - and I would love to hear why, it is possible that she comes into season early like Apples Jade? When you see how handy she won a Grade 1 at Christmas it would indicate that she is inconsistent at best - you don't want that when you are backing horses, it will cost you a fortune.

I would much prefer to lob on Concertista - wherever she goes next. It looks likely that she starts thriving in early Spring - she might give anything a run for its' money. I would rather be backing her at Cheltenham and save the powder on Colreevy. I don't like burning my fingers twice. That does not mean she won't win, but any value in her price will be gone now and I am happy to look elsewhere for a bet.

Coneygree · 07-01-2021 6:58pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think she is very good, but I will not follow her again if she goes to Cheltenham. As I said she underperformed - mares will do that - and I would love to hear why, it is possible that she comes into season early like Apples Jade? When you see how handy she won a Grade 1 at Christmas it would indicate that she is inconsistent at best - you don't want that when you are backing horses, it will cost you a fortune.

I would much prefer to lob on Concertista - wherever she goes next. It looks likely that she starts thriving in early Spring - she might give anything a run for its' money. I would rather be backing her at Cheltenham and save the powder on Colreevy. I don't like burning my fingers twice. That does not mean she won't win, but any value in her price will be gone now and I am happy to look elsewhere for a bet.

Solid logic and I think it'd be unlikely I'd back her now... However all it will take is Benie to be rerouted (is that even the correct term, she's still a hurdler first and foremost) or retired and Colreevy is easily the number 1 in the market. Fwiw I can't see PTKO going for this, although I think it might be the first AP bet I make for next year as soon as she flops in the Champion Chase.

Pogue eile · 07-01-2021 7:56pm

Coneygree wrote: »

Fwiw I can't see PTKO going for this, although I think it might be the first AP bet I make for next year as soon as she flops in the Champion Chase.

De Bromhead trained, Arkle Winner, 3 from 3 over Course and Distance, 7lb allowance, fragile favourite in a race that lacks any depth.

I think at 16s She is a great bet for the QM

IAMAMORON · 07-01-2021 8:01pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

De Bromhead trained, Arkle Winner, 3 from 3 over Course and Distance, 7lb allowance, fragile favourite in a race that lacks any depth.

I think at 16s She is a great bet for the QM

I think so as well. But it will depend on connections. She has lovely course form and I don't think Chacun Por Soi is all that bullet proof either.

I will be waiting for decs, but if she turned up in the mares she would hose up in it. The bookies are wide to this and she would be shorter if there was any money for her there.

Plasandrunt · 07-01-2021 11:09pm

Patrick Mullins confirms Shewearsitwell won't make the festival

Morleystreet · 07-01-2021 11:33pm

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Patrick Mullins confirms Shewearsitwell won't make the festival

Where you seeing that ?
Just that I have her in lot of doubles, trebles AP and cash out still available at this moment. So might have few mins to get out.

maximo31 · 08-01-2021 12:01am

Morleystreet wrote: »

Where you seeing that ?
Just that I have her in lot of doubles, trebles AP and cash out still available at this moment. So might have few mins to get out.

https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1347295234368139267?s=09

spuddiesal · 08-01-2021 12:22am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think so as well. But it will depend on connections. She has lovely course form and I don't think Chacun Por Soi is all that bullet proof either.

I will be waiting for decs, but if she turned up in the mares she would hose up in it. The bookies are wide to this and she would be shorter if there was any money for her there.

De Bromhead has said PTKO will run in champion chase. Waste of time. Has course form but what has she beat? Not champion chase material

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 12:38am

spuddiesal wrote: »

De Bromhead has said PTKO will run in champion chase. Waste of time. Has course form but what has she beat? Not champion chase material

Name your first four home in the QM?

Its a weak renewal where a max of 10 runners will line up. Festival form and mares allowance simply cant be ignored. Rated 155 on her novice form, add the 7lbs and the standard 10lbs progression from novice to open company and She is conceivably only 2lbs lower than the 6/4 fav.

I am not for a second saying she will win, but 16/1 is a stonking e/w bet with the make up of this race.

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 12:47am

aidankkk wrote: »

Flip sake the Grand Annual, has been moved from Friday. Disaster, its been a week saver on loads of occasions . Mares chase in that spot

Not only have they changed days Aidan, it will now be run on a different course! Love a 2 mile chase myself but they seem to want to get them all out of the way early!

Under normal circumstances I usually go to the festival Tuesday and Wednesday so I guess in the long rum this will be a good thing, although the cynic in me fears that by the time we get to attend the festival again it will be a 5 day festival with a Saturday Gold Cup

lemush · 08-01-2021 1:27am

Pogue eile wrote: »

Name your first four home in the QM?

Its a weak renewal where a max of 10 runners will line up. Festival form and mares allowance simply cant be ignored. Rated 155 on her novice form, add the 7lbs and the standard 10lbs progression from novice to open company and She is conceivably only 2lbs lower than the 6/4 fav.

I am not for a second saying she will win, but 16/1 is a stonking e/w bet with the make up of this race.

You cannot be serious.

Dr. Bre · 08-01-2021 1:31am

Pogue eile wrote: »

Not only have they changed days Aidan, it will now be run on a different course! Love a 2 mile chase myself but they seem to want to get them all out of the way early!

Under normal circumstances I usually go to the festival Tuesday and Wednesday so I guess in the long rum this will be a good thing, although the cynic in me fears that by the time we get to attend the festival again it will be a 5 day festival with a Saturday Gold Cup

A five day festival will give more chance of the best horses avoiding each other. Not good

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 2:16am

lemush wrote: »

You cannot be serious.

How much would you say the average novice improves the following season then?

Sprinter Sacre, Dodging Bullets, Special Tiara, Politilogue and Sire De Grugey all exceeded the 10lb rule. In fact the only recent winner that didnt improve 13lbs or over was Altior and that was because he was rated 168 as a novice.

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 2:17am

Dr. Bre wrote: »

A five day festival will give more chance of the best horses avoiding each other. Not good

Agreed but I think it is where we are heading, we have 28 races over 4 days now, doesn't take much to make it 5 days of 6 races.

lemush · 08-01-2021 5:29am

Pogue eile wrote: »

How much would you say the average novice improves the following season then?

Sprinter Sacre, Dodging Bullets, Special Tiara, Politilogue and Sire De Grugey all exceeded the 10lb rule. In fact the only recent winner that didnt improve 13lbs or over was Altior and that was because he was rated 168 as a novice.

You are seriously stating that novices tend to improve 10lbs "by standard" the season after their novice campaign? That's one of the most baffling statements I have ever read in my life.

Lets reel off the last seven Arkle winners from 2019 and see how many finished 10lbs higher the following season. None.

Also Altior ended his novice campaign rated 170 not 168, you seem to be confusing the mark they run off in their final race of the season as the mark they finish on.

Just as you are nearly certainly basing Sire De Grugy off a mark of 145 as he ran off that official rating in his last novice run. However he finished his novice campaign with a mark of 161.

spuddiesal · 08-01-2021 10:36am

Pogue eile wrote: »

Name your first four home in the QM?

Its a weak renewal where a max of 10 runners will line up. Festival form and mares allowance simply cant be ignored. Rated 155 on her novice form, add the 7lbs and the standard 10lbs progression from novice to open company and She is conceivably only 2lbs lower than the 6/4 fav.

I am not for a second saying she will win, but 16/1 is a stonking e/w bet with the make up of this race.

You can talk course form all you like but she hasn't beaten anything. Chacun, Poliologue, Nube Negra, Altior all finish way ahead of her.

You need at least four horses not to run IMO for her to place

Horses PTKO has beat at Cheltenham
Duc des Genievres rated 159 (Altior beat since with a 6lb penalty by 5 lengths)
Fakir D'oudairies rated 159 Beaten by Notebook by 12l and PU since
Rouge Rif rated 163 Beaten by Duc des Genievres by 17l Altior 20l, Politologue 10l
Al Dancer Rated 160. A 160 rated in Ireland would be winning graded races. This guy can't win a handicap.

IAMAMORON · 08-01-2021 11:42am

good Analysis of novice hurdlers - I will post last weeks later.

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 12:53pm

spuddiesal wrote: »

You can talk course form all you like but she hasn't beaten anything. Chacun, Poliologue, Nube Negra, Altior all finish way ahead of her.

You need at least four horses not to run IMO for her to place

Horses PTKO has beat at Cheltenham
Duc des Genievres rated 159 (Altior beat since with a 6lb penalty by 5 lengths)
Fakir D'oudairies rated 159 Beaten by Notebook by 12l and PU since
Rouge Rif rated 163 Beaten by Duc des Genievres by 17l Altior 20l, Politologue 10l
Al Dancer Rated 160. A 160 rated in Ireland would be winning graded races. This guy can't win a handicap.

I love when people trot out the 'what have they beaten' line.

Let me turn the question on you so, what has beaten her in Cheltenham?

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 1:04pm

lemush wrote: »

You are seriously stating that novices tend to improve 10lbs "by standard" the season after their novice campaign? That's one of the most baffling statements I have ever read in my life. Yes, Graded Novices generally improve on average 10lbs, its a pretty standard assertion, have you a different mark you use, I assume you are accepting that second season chasers improve?

Lets reel off the last seven Arkle winners from 2019 and see how many finished 10lbs higher the following season. None. I wouldprefer to look at the last seven winners of the QM that were second season chasers, how many have you now?

Also Altior ended his novice campaign rated 170 not 168, you seem to be confusing the mark they run off in their final race of the season as the mark they finish on. Was using the 168 he ran to in the Arkle, 170 actually further strengthens my point that he is the outlier

Just as you are nearly certainly basing Sire De Grugy off a mark of 145 as he ran off that official rating in his last novice run. However he finished his novice campaign with a mark of 161. And he finished the following season off 172, that is an 11 lb increase

.

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 1:16pm

Just to add as well lemush, I am not trying to start an argument here, I am genuinely surprised at your surprise - if that makes sense.

I have always used the 10lb rule as a yardstick and never seen any reason to question it, I would be generally interested in other peoples views on this.

When you are looking at last season's novices and trying to see where they will end up in open company what level of improvement do you allow for?

lemush · 08-01-2021 1:35pm

No argument I just think it's one of the most mental things I've ever read.

lemush · 08-01-2021 1:41pm

"Graded Novices generally improve on average 10lb"

You say that then choose to ignore proof to the contrary with regards the Arkle. How many winners/placed horses from the Marsh and Rsa have ended he following season 10 lbs higher?

There's three graded novice chases, by the standard progression you use the majority should have ended 10lbs higher the following season.

Plasandrunt · 08-01-2021 1:50pm

I dunno where Put The Kettle On is gonna pull back the 9l he finished behind Chacun last time out?

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 1:50pm

lemush wrote: »

"Graded Novices generally improve on average 10lb"

You say that then choose to ignore proof to the contrary with regards the Arkle. How many winners/placed horses from the Marsh and Rsa have ended he following season 10 lbs higher?

There's three graded novice chases, by the standard progression you use the majority should have ended 10lbs higher the following season.

You still haven't answered my question, do you accept that novices are entitled to improve in their second season?

If yes then on average by how much?

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 1:53pm

Plasandrunt wrote: »

I dunno where Put The Kettle On is gonna pull back the 9l he finished behind Chacun last time out?

Chacun is a sick note, Chacun has never made it to Cheltenham, never mind the festival, Chacun is 6/4 PTKO is 16/1.

I think Chacun will win, but I think PTKO is a better option from a betting perspective.

lemush · 08-01-2021 2:02pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

You still haven't answered my question, do you accept that novices are entitled to improve in their second season?

If yes then on average by how much?

The burden of proof is on you.

"and the standard 10lbs progression from novice to open company"

Examples please as to where this is standard. You have 3 novice chases in the festival each year, so there should be a long list of horses that meet this standard progression?

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 2:30pm

lemush wrote: »

The burden of proof is on you.

"and the standard 10lbs progression from novice to open company"

Examples please as to where this is standard. You have 3 novice chases in the festival each year, so there should be a long list of horses that meet this standard progression?

You want me to provide a list of second season chasers that improved 10lbs, seriously google it yourself. It doesn't just apply to chasers, I use the same for hurdlers.

Fine, you don't agree with the arbitary 10lb figure I use, you still haven't explained why or what figure you use.

lemush · 08-01-2021 2:40pm

So it is an arbitary figure, and not standard. Which has been my whole point. Best of luck.

spuddiesal · 08-01-2021 2:42pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

I love when people trot out the 'what have they beaten' line.

Let me turn the question on you so, what has beaten her in Cheltenham?

Not one. Who’s beaten Altior there?

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 2:42pm

lemush wrote: »

So it is an arbitary figure, and not standard. Which has been my whole point. Best of luck.

Of course it is arbitary - it is an estimated figure for 'expected' improvement, I am not sure where you got the impression otherwise

Pogue eile · 08-01-2021 2:48pm

spuddiesal wrote: »

Not one. Who’s beaten Altior there?

If Altior turns up I for one will be flabbergasted. Besides they are two horses on very very different trajectories.

That said the 10/1 NRNB with PP is a tempting price and I wouldnt put anyone off, Henderson wont turn up unless he genuinely believes he can win, Henderson gone very cowardly in his old age!

367 Days

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