367 Days

Dr. Bre

Pogue eile wrote: »

Not only have they changed days Aidan, it will now be run on a different course! Love a 2 mile chase myself but they seem to want to get them all out of the way early!

Under normal circumstances I usually go to the festival Tuesday and Wednesday so I guess in the long rum this will be a good thing, although the cynic in me fears that by the time we get to attend the festival again it will be a 5 day festival with a Saturday Gold Cup

A five day festival will give more chance of the best horses avoiding each other. Not good

Pogue eile

lemush wrote: »

You cannot be serious.

How much would you say the average novice improves the following season then?

Sprinter Sacre, Dodging Bullets, Special Tiara, Politilogue and Sire De Grugey all exceeded the 10lb rule. In fact the only recent winner that didnt improve 13lbs or over was Altior and that was because he was rated 168 as a novice.

Pogue eile

Dr. Bre wrote: »

A five day festival will give more chance of the best horses avoiding each other. Not good

Agreed but I think it is where we are heading, we have 28 races over 4 days now, doesn't take much to make it 5 days of 6 races.

lemush

Pogue eile wrote: »

How much would you say the average novice improves the following season then?

Sprinter Sacre, Dodging Bullets, Special Tiara, Politilogue and Sire De Grugey all exceeded the 10lb rule. In fact the only recent winner that didnt improve 13lbs or over was Altior and that was because he was rated 168 as a novice.

You are seriously stating that novices tend to improve 10lbs "by standard" the season after their novice campaign? That's one of the most baffling statements I have ever read in my life.


Lets reel off the last seven Arkle winners from 2019 and see how many finished 10lbs higher the following season. None.



Also Altior ended his novice campaign rated 170 not 168, you seem to be confusing the mark they run off in their final race of the season as the mark they finish on.



Just as you are nearly certainly basing Sire De Grugy off a mark of 145 as he ran off that official rating in his last novice run. However he finished his novice campaign with a mark of 161.

spuddiesal

Pogue eile wrote: »

Name your first four home in the QM?

Its a weak renewal where a max of 10 runners will line up. Festival form and mares allowance simply cant be ignored. Rated 155 on her novice form, add the 7lbs and the standard 10lbs progression from novice to open company and She is conceivably only 2lbs lower than the 6/4 fav.

I am not for a second saying she will win, but 16/1 is a stonking e/w bet with the make up of this race.

You can talk course form all you like but she hasn't beaten anything. Chacun, Poliologue, Nube Negra, Altior all finish way ahead of her.

You need at least four horses not to run IMO for her to place

Horses PTKO has beat at Cheltenham
Duc des Genievres rated 159 (Altior beat since with a 6lb penalty by 5 lengths)
Fakir D'oudairies rated 159 Beaten by Notebook by 12l and PU since
Rouge Rif rated 163 Beaten by Duc des Genievres by 17l Altior 20l, Politologue 10l
Al Dancer Rated 160. A 160 rated in Ireland would be winning graded races. This guy can't win a handicap.

IAMAMORON

good Analysis of novice hurdlers - I will post last weeks later.

Pogue eile

spuddiesal wrote: »

You can talk course form all you like but she hasn't beaten anything. Chacun, Poliologue, Nube Negra, Altior all finish way ahead of her.

You need at least four horses not to run IMO for her to place

Horses PTKO has beat at Cheltenham
Duc des Genievres rated 159 (Altior beat since with a 6lb penalty by 5 lengths)
Fakir D'oudairies rated 159 Beaten by Notebook by 12l and PU since
Rouge Rif rated 163 Beaten by Duc des Genievres by 17l Altior 20l, Politologue 10l
Al Dancer Rated 160. A 160 rated in Ireland would be winning graded races. This guy can't win a handicap.

I love when people trot out the 'what have they beaten' line.

Let me turn the question on you so, what has beaten her in Cheltenham?

Pogue eile

lemush wrote: »

You are seriously stating that novices tend to improve 10lbs "by standard" the season after their novice campaign? That's one of the most baffling statements I have ever read in my life. Yes, Graded Novices generally improve on average 10lbs, its a pretty standard assertion, have you a different mark you use, I assume you are accepting that second season chasers improve?


Lets reel off the last seven Arkle winners from 2019 and see how many finished 10lbs higher the following season. None. I wouldprefer to look at the last seven winners of the QM that were second season chasers, how many have you now?



Also Altior ended his novice campaign rated 170 not 168, you seem to be confusing the mark they run off in their final race of the season as the mark they finish on. Was using the 168 he ran to in the Arkle, 170 actually further strengthens my point that he is the outlier



Just as you are nearly certainly basing Sire De Grugy off a mark of 145 as he ran off that official rating in his last novice run. However he finished his novice campaign with a mark of 161. And he finished the following season off 172, that is an 11 lb increase

.

Pogue eile

Just to add as well lemush, I am not trying to start an argument here, I am genuinely surprised at your surprise - if that makes sense.

I have always used the 10lb rule as a yardstick and never seen any reason to question it, I would be generally interested in other peoples views on this.

When you are looking at last season's novices and trying to see where they will end up in open company what level of improvement do you allow for?

lemush

No argument I just think it's one of the most mental things I've ever read.

lemush

"Graded Novices generally improve on average 10lb"

You say that then choose to ignore proof to the contrary with regards the Arkle. How many winners/placed horses from the Marsh and Rsa have ended he following season 10 lbs higher?

There's three graded novice chases, by the standard progression you use the majority should have ended 10lbs higher the following season.

Plasandrunt

I dunno where Put The Kettle On is gonna pull back the 9l he finished behind Chacun last time out?

Pogue eile

lemush wrote: »

"Graded Novices generally improve on average 10lb"

You say that then choose to ignore proof to the contrary with regards the Arkle. How many winners/placed horses from the Marsh and Rsa have ended he following season 10 lbs higher?

There's three graded novice chases, by the standard progression you use the majority should have ended 10lbs higher the following season.

You still haven't answered my question, do you accept that novices are entitled to improve in their second season?

If yes then on average by how much?

Pogue eile

Plasandrunt wrote: »

I dunno where Put The Kettle On is gonna pull back the 9l he finished behind Chacun last time out?

Chacun is a sick note, Chacun has never made it to Cheltenham, never mind the festival, Chacun is 6/4 PTKO is 16/1.

I think Chacun will win, but I think PTKO is a better option from a betting perspective.

lemush

Pogue eile wrote: »

You still haven't answered my question, do you accept that novices are entitled to improve in their second season?

If yes then on average by how much?

The burden of proof is on you.

"and the standard 10lbs progression from novice to open company"

Examples please as to where this is standard. You have 3 novice chases in the festival each year, so there should be a long list of horses that meet this standard progression?

Pogue eile

lemush wrote: »

The burden of proof is on you.

"and the standard 10lbs progression from novice to open company"

Examples please as to where this is standard. You have 3 novice chases in the festival each year, so there should be a long list of horses that meet this standard progression?

You want me to provide a list of second season chasers that improved 10lbs, seriously google it yourself. It doesn't just apply to chasers, I use the same for hurdlers.

Fine, you don't agree with the arbitary 10lb figure I use, you still haven't explained why or what figure you use.

lemush

So it is an arbitary figure, and not standard. Which has been my whole point. Best of luck.

spuddiesal

Pogue eile wrote: »

I love when people trot out the 'what have they beaten' line.

Let me turn the question on you so, what has beaten her in Cheltenham?

Not one. Who’s beaten Altior there?

Pogue eile

lemush wrote: »

So it is an arbitary figure, and not standard. Which has been my whole point. Best of luck.

Of course it is arbitary - it is an estimated figure for 'expected' improvement, I am not sure where you got the impression otherwise

Pogue eile

spuddiesal wrote: »

Not one. Who’s beaten Altior there?

If Altior turns up I for one will be flabbergasted. Besides they are two horses on very very different trajectories.

That said the 10/1 NRNB with PP is a tempting price and I wouldnt put anyone off, Henderson wont turn up unless he genuinely believes he can win, Henderson gone very cowardly in his old age!

lemush

Pogue eile wrote: »

Of course it is arbitary - it is an estimated figure for 'expected' improvement, I am not sure where you got the impression otherwise

"and the standard 10lbs progression from novice to open company"

Pogue eile

lemush wrote: »

"and the standard 10lbs progression from novice to open company"

Which I later explained, a number of times was a figure that I apply to my own novice ratings.

I didnt realise that you were simply being pedantic for the sake of it and am sorry I wasted so much time trying to clarify.

Good luck indeed!

RivetingRoger

Will ye two shut up ffs
This is a countdown thread, a bit of craic ....go fight elsewhere

IAMAMORON

No don't shut up, I was quite enjoying the barney.

This is what countdowns are all about RamJet. Healthy vibrant discussion.

Arguments are important - they amount to progress.

Valuable discussion indeed.

I've just stuck a tenner on PTKO.

IAMAMORON

Pogue eile wrote: »

Just to add as well lemush, I am not trying to start an argument here, I am genuinely surprised at your surprise - if that makes sense.

I have always used the 10lb rule as a yardstick and never seen any reason to question it, I would be generally interested in other peoples views on this.

When you are looking at last season's novices and trying to see where they will end up in open company what level of improvement do you allow for?

2 wins for starters - which is around 10 - 14 lbs and if they are superstars they will win a 3rd or even a 4th race.

Roughly speaking.

It also depends on what their opening mark is or was and what targets are. For example a smaller outfit might be jogging one out through maidens to get a handy mark for a handicap. But if you are talking winners then I suppose a 10lb rise is not a bad stab at things. Put it this way, if it doesn't improve the 10lbs you do your money.

IAMAMORON

Plasandrunt wrote: »

I dunno where Put The Kettle On is gonna pull back the 9l he finished behind Chacun last time out?

Probably out for a jog and a bit of feed money. You can't be whipping them 5 runs a season or they get cute. I would say the connections were happy enough.

RivetingRoger

63 days
three hours
Nine Minutes

Until ITV pipe a fake crowd noise to usher in the start of the Supreme Novice Hurdle

AND I CAN'T WAIT

Pogue eile

RivetingRoger wrote: »

63 days
three hours
Nine Minutes

Until ITV pipe a fake crowd noise to usher in the start of the Supreme Novice Hurdle

AND I CAN'T WAIT

I think we will all certainly APPRECIATE IT...............sorry I'll get my coat

Coneygree

RivetingRoger wrote: »

63 days
three hours
Nine Minutes

Until ITV pipe a fake crowd noise to usher in the start of the Supreme Novice Hurdle

AND I CAN'T WAIT

I just realised they'll have to do some amount of spoofing when the horse goes into the winning enclosure to no cheers and no crowds. Mick Fitzgerald will be gutted he can't regurgitate his usual spiel about "this is the one they all dream about".