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367 Days

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13567…16

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    #62
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    He has to beat

    Aramax - Fred Winter winner
    Soviet Pimpernel - Graded Hurdle winner
    Entoucas - Hurdle winner
    Exit Poll - looks useful
    Rebel Gold - won twice since June
    Excepted - Could be anything
    Dis Donc - Noel Meade is flying

    There is only one horse of the 15 that is still a maiden, the rest are all winners.

    + 12 -13 fences?

    I don't think he is a 1/2 shot at all. In fact he can win all day at that price if you ask me. But would you not think there are a few handier 1/2 shots floating around?

    Just saying.

    Yes, not the worst beginners chase field. CG should have stones on them though, especially given a number of them are definitely not out to win.

    I didn't back him at 1/2? I think, given his huge promise and connections, he should be closer to 1/2. Therefore, I backed him at 8/11.


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    #63
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    Imhof Tank wrote: »
    No horse is value at 8/11 first time out over fences. Surely?

    Loads of horses could be value at 8/11 on their fences debut IMHO.
    All about opinions sure!


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    #64
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Cant say i'd be backing horses odds on on their chase debut myself. Needs to win if he's an Arkle horse, and should win.

    The bet is probably to back for the Arkle now (you probably should have backed it weeks ago anyway) and hope he wins by half track, he'll half in price.


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    #65
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    After a quick look at the Arkle betting, it wont take much for CG to go off sub 4/1 if he wins this and another one or two along the way. There's a lot in the betting that wont be running in the Arkle. Arkle's tend to have small fields as we all know, especially when something like Shishkin is in there.

    I'm a Shishkin fan myself and think he's going to be a superstar, but i'm going to have a small bet each way at 16/1.


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    #66
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    I think the only way to beat the Arkle market is to lob in a few hail Mary's and hope for the best. As soon as anything wins a few chases its' price starts collapsing. For example if the likes of Entoucas, Saint Roi or Quick Grabim improved a stone for fences you would have a nice bit of value come March.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/arkle-chase/winner


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    #67
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    Yes, not the worst beginners chase field. CG should have stones on them though, especially given a number of them are definitely not out to win.

    I didn't back him at 1/2? I think, given his huge promise and connections, he should be closer to 1/2. Therefore, I backed him at 8/11.

    I am only disputing the price and given the field I think he is a lay at those prices.

    He might still hack up by 10 lengths, but I would be dubious of a horse's rep being based on 2 completed races and arriving at the bottom of the Cheltenham hill on the bridle. We have all seen horsies finding nothing after. There simply has to be easier odds on shots to have your money on today?

    For me its a lay and I have Dis Donc, Entoucas, Born by the Sea, Soviet Pimpernel, Rebel Gold, Exit Poll, Enexcepted etc etc to go to war with.

    I tell you one thing, if CG wins his Arkle price will get obliterated, and rightly so.


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    #68
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    I am only disputing the price and given the field I think he is a lay at those prices.

    That's fine. Everyone is allowed an opinion.
    I only back horses that are bigger than I think they should be.

    As a matter of interest, what price would you have Captain Guinness marked up at?


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    #69
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    That's fine. Everyone is allowed an opinion.
    I only back horses that are bigger than I think they should be.

    As a matter of interest, what price would you have Captain Guinness marked up at?

    I am not a bookie. I am a punter. I only back what I think is overpriced. I will also lay if it is underpriced. I layed at 4/5 there on Betfair.

    The market decides his price, but the current bookies odds are madness. Simply ridiculous value. It might turn out that half the field are out for a jog, but there will be other triers.

    There is a heap of money to be made laying beginner chasers at odds on.

    I just checked specials for today also. PP are offering even money. But if he arrives in any doubles in Ladbrokes or Boyles...


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    #70
    KevH1984
    Registered Users Posts: 83 ✭✭KevH1984


    I'd absolutely not be a backer at his price today and will happily sit and watch. Hoping for a nice round of jumping from him and I'll be happy. That being said he should win. I just thought looking at the market a few weeks ago he was an outlier at 20s considering he would have been in the mix in the Supreme. Now it could have transpired that he found nothing up the hill I guess we'll never know. But looking at the shape of the market and potential likely runners in the Arkle at this stage I couldn't have him a 20s shot or a 16s shot for that matter.


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    #71
    PM me nudes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭PM me nudes


    Does anyone else not feel CG is massively overrated on what he has achieved so far?

    Andy Defresne is no superstar.


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    #72
    Dr. Bre
    Registered Users Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭Dr. Bre


    How many days is it now ?


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    #73
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    I layed at 4/5 there on Betfair.

    Hahaha so shrewd. He's readily available to lay at shorter.


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    #74
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    PM me nudes wrote: »
    Does anyone else not feel CG is massively overrated on what he has achieved so far?

    Andy Defresne is no superstar.

    You'd think he would have been a good third in the Supreme given how he was travelling. He doesn't look like a Harchibald type so would have found something!!


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    #75
    Plasandrunt
    Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭Plasandrunt


    payday today so I've had a few antipost punts.

    Darver Star - Arkle
    Abacadbras - Champion Hurdle (have been topping up on him)
    Real Steel - Ryanair
    Elfie - Mares Chase.
    Emitom - National Hunt chase.


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    #76
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Backed Galvin for the NH Chase the other day actually.

    No word of Champagne Classic this year.


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    #77
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.


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    #78
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

    Yeah right.

    That has to be the aftertime of the century ( so far anyways ).:pac::pac:


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    #79
    krustydoyle
    Registered Users Posts: 4,941 ✭✭✭krustydoyle


    Did CG injure itself jumping the first in the straight on the second lap?? RB seemed very unhappy after that jump. Gave the horse a squeeze and nothing. She pulled it up then


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    #80
    KevH1984
    Registered Users Posts: 83 ✭✭KevH1984


    krustydoyle wrote: »
    Did CG injure itself jumping the first in the straight on the second lap?? RB seemed very unhappy after that jump. Gave the horse a squeeze and nothing. She pulled it up then

    Looked that way to me anyway, jumped it awkwardly and was unhappy immediately so done the right thing. Was jumping grand until then. Hopefully things aren't too bad with him afterwards and we can see him out again soon.


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    #81
    Sultan of Bling
    Registered Users Posts: 1,870 ✭✭✭Sultan of Bling


    NaiveMelodies wrote:
    PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.


    Christ


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    #82
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    The winner looked something else, jumped like a buck and pissed all over them.

    20's for the Arkle. Best price 11's on the exchange.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/arkle-chase/winner/bet-history/unexcepted


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    #83
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

    I am more disappointed than angry


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    #84
    Mysterypunter
    Registered Users Posts: 2,806 ✭✭✭Mysterypunter


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

    You can't have a bet after the race finishes, it was off at 15:51 and the winnining time was 4mins 37.3 secs. So it's a little late. Do you fancy anything running later, or maybe tomorrow as your main fancy for today Captain Guinness was unplaced at 4/6.


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    #85
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

    Well played.


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    #86
    PM me nudes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭PM me nudes


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

    People have awful memories. You'd miss the day of Sting.

    In taxi, data not working. Fancy Leicester to win 2015/16 premier league. Max bet


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    #87
    flos1964
    Registered Users Posts: 149 ✭✭flos1964


    Think the man is just having a laugh isnt he....a bit of gallows humour...no.


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    #88
    The Mig
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Some people ffs :pac:

    Cheers for the shout Naive. Hope ya had the lot on!


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    #89
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    The Mig wrote: »
    Some people ffs :pac:

    Cheers for the shout Naive. Hope ya had the lot on!

    Cheers man. Hope a good few got on.
    Using the winnings to get the PC fixed.


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    #90
    Morleystreet
    Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Morleystreet


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

    Don't be too hard on him - he tipped up never back down to us all a few weeks back!!


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    #91
    Morleystreet
    Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Morleystreet


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Backed Galvin for the NH Chase the other day actually.

    No word of Champagne Classic this year.

    Galvin running Cheltenham tomorrow.


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