Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

MrMusician18 · 15-10-2018 5:48pm

lawred2 wrote: »

So the Tories will look for other English politicians to vote against the desires of the DUP in a vote that directly impacts the DUP's own constituents in NI.

A lovely Union alright.

One to aspire to.

That's to ignore the fact that the DUP are utterly failing to represent NI as a whole in Westminster.

They'd obviously argue that the DUP isn't representing the interests of their constituents or the Union in that case.

eire4 · 15-10-2018 5:49pm

CZ 453 wrote: »

She's sticking to the keep the union stance. Can't see any deal now. Temporary backstop shafts us at some point.

No way the EU will agree to a temporary backstop. Given just how intransigent the DUP are I cannot see how a deal gets done any time soon.

lawred2 · 15-10-2018 5:49pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

They'd obviously argue that the DUP isn't representing the interests of their constituents or the Union in that case.

Well neither are any of them so that would fall flat...

Scotland and NI voted to remain.

lawred2 · 15-10-2018 5:51pm

eire4 wrote: »

No way the EU will agree to a temporary backstop. Given just how intransigent the DUP are I cannot see how a deal gets done any tie soon.

The DUP can be sidelined but that would put an end to the billion pound deal

briany · 15-10-2018 6:04pm

megatron989 wrote: »

I wonder, as many here have, if the people got a second chance to vote would they vote any differently? Watching these crayon wielding children talk absolute rubbish this last year or so has left me with no confidence in their ability to see what they are walking into. That or they simply don't think anything will happen when it hits the fan.
It might well be true that in this situation they (uk) would do nothing and imagen the world would carry on. But the EU will most definitely do something if no deal wins.
Or is this really all a game and TM knows the play she's making, all laid out ahead of time, stringing along the crayon eaters in the HoC with her lunacy? Madness.

If there was an option to remain, that would probably win. That would be the side most energised and mobilised in the vote, plus the Leave voters who have looked at what a shambles the whole negotiations have been, or people who felt like they'd been lied to about what Brexit would mean and switch sides, even if not totally happily.

But because Brexit is such a polarising issue, the anger from Leave diehards would be immense, and nobody would bother dealing with the underlying issues that lead to a Brexit vote in the first place. They'd just be happy to have the genie back in the bottle for now, even with the possibility of things exploding even worse later on.

There is no short term happy ending for Brexit. There's just a lot of misery or even more misery, so let's see if the British politicians and public opt just for a lot of misery.

Beechwoodspark · 15-10-2018 6:07pm

CZ 453 wrote: »

Mary Lou speaking very well there on Sky News.

Whatever ppl think of her, she is an excellent media performer. Probably the best of the Irish party leaders.

Call me Al · 15-10-2018 6:10pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Whatever ppl think of her, she is an excellent media performer. Probably the best of the Irish party leaders.

Yes she's an excellent media performer. She's never caught on the backfoot. I'd love to see her debate against Farage. That would be fascinating.
And I like the politics of neither.

Nody · 15-10-2018 6:19pm

eire4 wrote: »

No way the EU will agree to a temporary backstop. Given just how intransigent the DUP are I cannot see how a deal gets done any time soon.

Oh I think a temporary backstop for let's say 1000 years will be acceptable to the EU...

ancapailldorcha · 15-10-2018 6:32pm

megatron989 wrote: »

I wonder, as many here have, if the people got a second chance to vote would they vote any differently? Watching these crayon wielding children talk absolute rubbish this last year or so has left me with no confidence in their ability to see what they are walking into. That or they simply don't think anything will happen when it hits the fan.
It might well be true that in this situation they (uk) would do nothing and imagen the world would carry on. But the EU will most definitely do something if no deal wins.
Or is this really all a game and TM knows the play she's making, all laid out ahead of time, stringing along the crayon eaters in the HoC with her lunacy? Madness.

Petty insults are not welcome here. No more please.

murphaph · 15-10-2018 6:34pm

Nody wrote: »

Oh I think a temporary backstop for let's say 1000 years will be acceptable to the EU...

Cue the headlines of the 1000 year Reich. Pick another number ;-)

It sounds like May is preparing to go for a deal the DUP won't like. Could easily go very pear shaped and result in no deal.

Rhineshark · 15-10-2018 6:37pm

murphaph wrote: »

Cue the headlines of the 1000 year Reich. Pick another number ;-)

It sounds like May is preparing to go for a deal the DUP won't like. Could easily go very pear shaped and result in no deal.

How about 800 years? Nice bit of symbolism :P

She seems to be edging for UK-wide time-limited backstop. Aren't both the UK-wide bit and the time-limited bit out of the question? The NI time-limited certainly is but pretty sure temporary UK-wide is also out?

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 6:41pm

briany wrote: »

If there was an option to remain, that would probably win. That would be the side most energised and mobilised in the vote, plus the Leave voters who have looked at what a shambles the whole negotiations have been, or people who felt like they'd been lied to about what Brexit would mean and switch sides, even if not totally happily.
.

Even though it was widely accepted in a recent British poll that the negotiations were a shambles, it was is far from clear if there was an option to remain that it would pass. 47% in favour, 43% opposed and 10% don`t knows.

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2018 6:44pm

Have a listen to John Humphrys interviewing Labour's Keir Starmer on Brexit. From 2:14 in:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/play/m0000qtl

Illuminating what the ordinary British person is exposed to by the supposedly balanced BBC. Humphrys has plenty of form when it comes to, shall we say, questionable objectivity on Brexit.

When you've got alleged impartial presenters saying "you're caving in to Brussels" over the idea of staying in a Customs Union, it's not hard to see how things have become so emotive and toxic.

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 6:50pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

How about 800 years? Nice bit of symbolism :P

She seems to be edging for UK-wide time-limited backstop. Aren't both the UK-wide bit and the time-limited bit out of the question? The NI time-limited certainly is but pretty sure temporary UK-wide is also out?

I would tend towards the view that she is looking for a time limit backstop for NI as she could sell that to the DUP.
If that is the case then isn`t there a possibility that we may come under pressure to accept it with the can just being kicked down the road ?

Rhineshark · 15-10-2018 6:56pm

charlie14 wrote: »

I would tend towards the view that she is looking for a time limit backstop for NI as she could sell that to the DUP.
If that is the case then isn`t there a possibility that we may come under pressure to accept it with the can just being kicked down the road ?

Pressure from the UK, sure, but I don't think there will be pressure from the EU. It's bad for everyone and everyone knows damn well that the UK hasn't been negotiating in good faith. They'd drop it regardless in 2021.

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 7:10pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

Pressure from the UK, sure, but I don't think there will be pressure from the EU. It's bad for everyone and everyone knows damn well that the UK hasn't been negotiating in good faith. They'd drop it regardless in 2021.

I wouldn`t be too sure that there would not be pressure from the EU to accept a time limit on a backstop that has little or no consequence for 26 of the 27.

Especially if, as seems at the moment, the backstop issue has the potential to result in either a hard Brexit or a British general election.

Captain Obvious · 15-10-2018 7:22pm

I wonder would they be so bold as to call a referendum and offer the various options for Brexit but exclude a repeal of the original referendum.

Rhineshark · 15-10-2018 7:26pm

charlie14 wrote: »

I wouldn`t be too sure that there would not be pressure from the EU to accept a time limit on a backstop that has little or no consequence for 26 of the 27.

Especially if, as seems at the moment, the backstop issue has the potential to result in either a hard Brexit or a British general election.

As it has for the last year and more.

There has been no pressure, on the contrary the other EU countries have been in full accord. And you can bet it matters to the smaller countries. If Ireland can be thrown under a bus after all this, they would know that they could be next. If they were going to chuck Ireland, they'd have done it at one of the other main moments that looked like May's gov was going to collapse.

The time limit does not benefit the EU at all. It would render the whole thing an expensive exercise in trust with the UK to delay a problem for two years, squandering the goodwill of smaller countries, playing right into the anti-EU rhetoric and ending up with a border mess anyway.

We'll see by March. But I do not believe that there will be pressure on us from the EU nor do I think it would make sense for the other countries to try apply it now.

Water John · 15-10-2018 7:45pm

Labour MP Bridget Phillipson on Sky saying a Referendum on the deal is essential.
Crispin Blunt MP Con really talking convoluted waffle. Actually cannot write what he wanted to say as it's totally unclear.

Dyr · 15-10-2018 7:45pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

The time limit does not benefit the EU at all. It would render the whole thing an expensive exercise in trust with the UK to delay a problem for two years, squandering the goodwill of smaller countries, playing right into the anti-EU rhetoric and ending up with a border mess anyway.

If you're doing business with someone who's hellbent on bankruptcy it's generally inadvisable to go offering them extended credit. The EU has no idea what kind of a clownshop Britain might be in two years, kicking the can that far down the road ain't an option

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 7:51pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

As it has for the last year and more.

There has been no pressure, on the contrary the other EU countries have been in full accord. And you can bet it matters to the smaller countries. If Ireland can be thrown under a bus after all this, they would know that they could be next. If they were going to chuck Ireland, they'd have done it at one of the other main moments that looked like May's gov was going to collapse.

The time limit does not benefit the EU at all. It would render the whole thing an expensive exercise in trust with the UK to delay a problem for two years, squandering the goodwill of smaller countries, playing right into the anti-EU rhetoric and ending up with a border mess anyway.

We'll see by March. But I do not believe that there will be pressure on us from the EU nor do I think it would make sense for the other countries to try apply it now.

I would imagine there was no pressure because there were on-going discussions. Now that the issue may cause either a hard Brexit or a British GE, I can see why it may not stay that way.

As to the smaller counties, I doubt they will see much difference between a time-limited backstop or an indefinite backstop causing a hard Brexit, but I can see where they could look upon it as an expensive waste now that we are at a stage where all this was supposed to be sorted in Dec 2017 before there would be any move to Phase 2 discussions.

Dyr · 15-10-2018 8:02pm

I used to work for a organisation that acted as a regulatory body, I saw one buck up on a disciplinary charge who acted the hard chaw, refused to engage, back tracked, lied, all the tricks.

I asked one of the legal types who ran the hearings what he thought of this lad's carry on and he replied with a grim smile, "Guys like that are brave until they see the gallows, then they change their tune"

I think May and Raab have now seen the Gallows, expect overtures to be made to various Labour MPs over the next while

ambro25 · 15-10-2018 8:37pm

Was the interview with AstraZeneca's boss in today's Le Monde already mentioned in the thread?

Johansson confirmed in it that AZ has already stopped investing in the UK, with Brexit contingency planning costs clocking €45m to date.

Project Reality catching up with UK plc's crown jewels, there.

blackcard · 15-10-2018 8:48pm

So Teresa May says that the EU insistence on a border backstop is unacceptable. TM signed up to this last December so what she is saying now is that the EU insistence on her keeping her word is unacceptable. It beggars belief.

Spanish Eyes · 15-10-2018 8:56pm

Trump wants to get rid of the WTO, Putin wants to rule the world and get rid of the EU.

What are we left with now?

An Ciarraioch · 15-10-2018 9:10pm

Was directed to the following by a commentator on the EU Referendum blog - it seems 16% of all fish, and 34% of calamari imported through the Galician port of Vigo, comes from the Falklands. Like Jersey yesterday, the islanders feel sidelined by the UK and have taken their case directly to the Galician government, in the hope that Spain will support them post-Brexit at EU level:

http://en.mercopress.com/2018/10/12/falklands-government-and-fishing-industry-seek-support-in-galicia

Hurrache · 15-10-2018 9:10pm

Will both the EU and the WTO still exist

An Ciarraioch · 15-10-2018 9:24pm

Hurrache wrote: »

Will both the EU and the WTO still exist

Unless Le Pen beats Macron, you still have enough of a cohesive bloc in Western Europe to keep the show on the road - the major worry would be an Italian default, but both parties there will surely rein in their spending plans if one is threatened.

Charles Babbage · 15-10-2018 9:28pm

charlie14 wrote: »

I would tend towards the view that she is looking for a time limit backstop for NI as she could sell that to the DUP.
If that is the case then isn`t there a possibility that we may come under pressure to accept it with the can just being kicked down the road ?

Time limited and only endable by a referendum in NI?

nc6000 · 15-10-2018 9:46pm

An Ciarraioch wrote:

Was directed to the following by a commentator on the EU Referendum blog - it seems 16% of all fish, and 34% of calamari imported through the Galician port of Vigo, comes from the Falklands. Like Jersey yesterday, the islanders feel sidelined by the UK and have taken their case directly to the Galician government, in the hope that Spain will support them post-Brexit at EU level:

First mention I've seen of The Falklands. Are they currently in the EU?

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 9:56pm

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Time limited and only endable by a referendum in NI?

A time-limited backstop may, (and like anything to do with the DUP it`s a big may), make it possible for TM to sell it to them but, I cannot see her proposing a NI referendum on it.
Even if she wished to, could she even propose such a referendum for just NI without including the rest of the UK ?

trellheim · 15-10-2018 10:24pm

text of TM's speech , and followup q&a

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2018-10-15/debates/7F3BE0D6-D631-4A22-BA71-CB924A564DA1/EUExitNegotiations

The dancing on a pin to Nigel Dodds is what I wanted to read very closely

Nigel Dodds (Belfast North) (DUP)
In order to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, which nobody wants, it can never be right that we have any kind of borders in the Irish sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. The Prime Minister knows that we

“could not support any deal that creates a border of any kind in the Irish Sea”.

Those are not my words—they are the words of Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives. Will the Prime Minister confirm today that, as she said in her statement, she could never accept a proposed

“backstop that would see Northern Ireland carved off in the EU’s customs union and parts of the single market, separated through a border in the Irish sea from the UK’s own internal market”?

Would she confirm that the UK is leaving the EU together with no part hived off either in the single market or customs union differences?

The Prime Minister
When we leave the European Union, it will be the UK that leaves the European Union. We will be leaving the European Union together. I am very clear that there should be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, but, as we have put forward in our proposals, we can deliver on that and maintain the integrity of our Union. We made that very clear when the European Union made its backstop proposal that would effectively have carved Northern Ireland away from the rest of the United Kingdom. We cannot accept the EU’s backstop to a backstop precisely because it continues to want to see that. In fact what we want to see in a backstop is a situation where Northern Ireland businesses can export freely to Great Britain and to the European Union. That would be a good position for Northern Ireland businesses.

..ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

briany · 15-10-2018 10:37pm

blackcard wrote: »

So Teresa May says that the EU insistence on a border backstop is unacceptable. TM signed up to this last December so what she is saying now is that the EU insistence on her keeping her word is unacceptable. It beggars belief.

Isn't she saying that a backstop without a time limit is unacceptable?

murphaph · 15-10-2018 10:48pm

trellheim wrote: »

text of TM's speech , and followup q&a

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2018-10-15/debates/7F3BE0D6-D631-4A22-BA71-CB924A564DA1/EUExitNegotiations

The dancing on a pin to Nigel Dodds is what I wanted to read very closely

..ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Thanks for the Hansard text. When you read it it is quite clear where May is heading. NI to stay in EU SM. I actually wish her luck in getting that over the line.

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 10:50pm

briany wrote: »

Isn't she saying that a backstop without a time limit is unacceptable?

Sounded that way to me with her mention of a backstop to the backstop.

Firblog · 15-10-2018 10:51pm

Was listening to Ivan on newstalk this eve on about Brexit, everyone was saying how EU was making concessions allowing such a good deal to NI, to stay in EU/Single Market and wasn't it terrible how such concessions were being thrown back in their face and how could DUP be as stupid as to continue blocking it etc.

Now I always like to look at things inversely when trying to figure out why people aren't agreeing with some seemingly great offer that is being made, and came up with this..

What if UK said, here's a way to get over the whole soft border thing.. We will allow Donegal, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth have a free trade area with UK, that way there'll be no hard border between NI and ROI, this will be the new backstop, and we'll allow it to go on forever.. Now of course there will have to be checks between these counties and the rest of the Republic but sure won't it be the best of both worlds for those counties (much like it's being claimed for NI in the present offer from EU) Do you think EU and Leo, FF, SF would think that was a good deal?

nc6000 · 15-10-2018 10:54pm

Firblog wrote:

What if UK said, here's a way to get over the whole soft border thing.. We will allow Donegal, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth have a free trade area with UK, that way there'll be no hard border between NI and ROI, this will be the new backstop, and we'll allow it to go on forever.. Now of course there will have to be checks between these counties and the rest of the Republic but sure won't it be the best of both worlds for those counties (much like it's being claimed for NI in the present offer from EU) Do you think EU and Leo, FF, SF would think that was a good deal?

Doesn't that just move the border issue into those counties?

An Ciarraioch · 15-10-2018 10:55pm

Firblog wrote: »

Was listening to Ivan on newstalk this eve on about Brexit, everyone was saying how EU was making concessions allowing such a good deal to NI, to stay in EU/Single Market and wasn't it terrible how such concessions were being thrown back in their face and how could DUP be as stupid as to continue blocking it etc.

Now I always like to look at things inversely when trying to figure out why people aren't agreeing with some seemingly great offer that is being made, and came up with this..

What if UK said, here's a way to get over the whole soft border thing.. We will allow Donegal, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth have a free trade area with UK, that way there'll be no hard border between NI and ROI, this will be the new backstop, and we'll allow it to go on forever.. Now of course there will have to be checks between these counties and the rest of the Republic but sure won't it be the best of both worlds for those counties (much like it's being claimed for NI in the present offer from EU) Do you think EU and Leo, FF, SF would think that was a good deal?

Except there are already checks between NI and GB for agricultural purposes.

Firblog · 15-10-2018 10:59pm

nc6000 wrote: »

Doesn't that just move the border issue into those counties?

Aye it does, but will the nutters attack customs/border posts that are Irish, and manned by Irish people?

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 11:01pm

Firblog wrote: »

Was listening to Ivan on newstalk this eve on about Brexit, everyone was saying how EU was making concessions allowing such a good deal to NI, to stay in EU/Single Market and wasn't it terrible how such concessions were being thrown back in their face and how could DUP be as stupid as to continue blocking it etc.

Now I always like to look at things inversely when trying to figure out why people aren't agreeing with some seemingly great offer that is being made, and came up with this..

What if UK said, here's a way to get over the whole soft border thing.. We will allow Donegal, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth have a free trade area with UK, that way there'll be no hard border between NI and ROI, this will be the new backstop, and we'll allow it to go on forever.. Now of course there will have to be checks between these counties and the rest of the Republic but sure won't it be the best of both worlds for those counties (much like it's being claimed for NI in the present offer from EU) Do you think EU and Leo, FF, SF would think that was a good deal?

I cannot see how moving a border to include the rest of Ulster plus Louth and Leitrim is going to help.

Firblog · 15-10-2018 11:03pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Except there are already checks between NI and GB for agricultural purposes.

And? So? I'm fairly sure that if NI has checks on animals coming in from UK then we do too, so no difference there surely

Water John · 15-10-2018 11:03pm

Interesting pitch in the House of Commons;
'Nicky Morgan warned may there was no majority for no deal in the Commons and that MPs would have to “step in” if she failed to get one'.

Yes it is the duty of Parliament. Have they any group or person to lead it?

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 11:04pm

Firblog wrote: »

Aye it does, but will the nutter attack customs/border posts that are Irish, and manned by Irish people?

For some of them it would just mean they have less distance to travel to do so.

Firblog · 15-10-2018 11:07pm

charlie14 wrote: »

For some of them it would just mean they have less distance to travel to do so.

You're prob not far wrong there..

Anthracite · 15-10-2018 11:07pm

Firblog wrote: »

Aye it does, but will the nutters attack customs/border posts that are Irish, and manned by Irish people?

Will the nutter repulblicans do something nuts?

Rhineshark · 15-10-2018 11:08pm

Firblog wrote: »

Was listening to Ivan on newstalk this eve on about Brexit, everyone was saying how EU was making concessions allowing such a good deal to NI, to stay in EU/Single Market and wasn't it terrible how such concessions were being thrown back in their face and how could DUP be as stupid as to continue blocking it etc.

Now I always like to look at things inversely when trying to figure out why people aren't agreeing with some seemingly great offer that is being made, and came up with this..

What if UK said, here's a way to get over the whole soft border thing.. We will allow Donegal, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth have a free trade area with UK, that way there'll be no hard border between NI and ROI, this will be the new backstop, and we'll allow it to go on forever.. Now of course there will have to be checks between these counties and the rest of the Republic but sure won't it be the best of both worlds for those counties (much like it's being claimed for NI in the present offer from EU) Do you think EU and Leo, FF, SF would think that was a good deal?

If sea-level rise conspires to put a moat around that region and cut off Donegal, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth from the south it will be merely a weird idea instead of a ridiculous one.

Firblog · 15-10-2018 11:09pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

If sea-level rise conspires to put a moat around that region, it will be merely a weird idea instead of a ridiculous one.

So how come it is more ridiculous than expecting the UK/NI to accept the same deal to be foisted on them?

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 11:09pm

Firblog wrote: »

And? So? I'm fairly sure that if NI has checks on animals coming in from UK then we do too, so no difference there surely

In which case would we not then have to check on animals from Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim and Louth if you are moving a border to include these counties ?

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2018 11:13pm

Anyone catch that exchange just now on Newsnight with a Brexiteer on the streets of Belfast?

Interviewer: "You're leaving a sinking ship?"

Brexiteer: "Yes."

Interviewer: "But are there lifeboats?"

Brexiteer: "We can make the lifeboats in Northern Ireland. We made Titanic."

Interviewer: "That didn't turn out so well."

Firblog · 15-10-2018 11:16pm

charlie14 wrote: »

In which case would we not then have to check on animals from Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim and Louth if you are moving a border to include these counties ?

We most probably would ok, but won't UK have to check everything coming from NI if they accepted the offer on the table?

What I'm looking at is putting the shoe on the other foot to see how we would like the fit.. maybe have an idea then why the solution being offered to the UK / NI is not being grabbed by both hands by them as everyone seems to think its such a great offer by the EU

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Comments