Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Water John

I presume to sit in Parliament the SF MPs would have to take an Oath of Allegiance to the Queen? Not going to happen.

Shelga

What is the objection Spain has? I must confess, I don’t really understand the relationship between Gibraltar and Spain on a practical level.

Nesta99

badtoro wrote: »

No offense meant to you but SF sitting in London ain't happening, and while I don't share their politics that's their platform and they're right to stick to their guns on it - ahem.

Mp's certainly would vote to spite the political wing of the IRA who bombed their cities and murdered their people. Bit like a Vinnie Jones line, things would get emotional.

I do agree on that. I suppose I am questioning the sense in not taking the opportunity to put the cat among the pigeons. On Brexit, but also to force the hand of the DUP to return to Stormont and maximise what they would see as damage limitation. Yes they will stick to teir platform but they could cause such chaos that an election would happen and if Labour are returned in majority it weakens the hand of the DUP. There are no guarantees that a Labour government would be less ummm 'patient' with DUP obstruction and ransom demands but traditionally they are less likely to hold Ulster Unionist hands every time they decide to emotionally rerun the siege of derry.

It is a complex issue for SF I understand, though in a time of different politics on these islands they could do more to further their cause working within the 3 parliments involved in NI. A unique position probably in world politics never mind Ireland and the UK since partition(?) and it would take Unionism to gain traction to be elected to the Dail to balance such influence. Sein Fein in due course could feasibly be in government in both jurisdictions on this island and also sit in London - with parlimentary privilage among other things it could only be a situation of advantage! Not a situation I'd be that comfortable myself ie SF in govt in the RoI but it does seem like a heart over head stance at this stage. There is the demographic potential for SF to have the largest representation from NI in Westminster.....they could probably achieve more with direct rule in that scenario than at Stormont lol. If the DUP do not take care they could reap what they sow one day yet!!

Nody

josip wrote: »

It looks like Spain are taking the DUP role on the EU side.


https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1120/1012072-brexit-europe/

Actually all they are doing is holding EU to what it stated at the start which was Spain had the veto over the Gibraltar deal which was to be separate side deal.

Nesta99

Shelga wrote: »

What is the objection Spain has? I must confess, I don’t really understand the relationship between Gibraltar and Spain on a practical level.

I'd presume it would have to do with control of the strategic strait of Gibraltar. That and the want to have a historical piece of a country back. There is also the consideration of people who live in Spain and work in Gibraltar. But as my probably naive posts above show I am no expert on any of this!!

Nody

Nody wrote: »

Actually all they are doing is holding EU to what it stated at the start which was Spain had the veto over the Gibraltar deal which was to be separate side deal.

Yes and they seem to want it more explicit in the withdrawal agreement.

El Weirdo

robinph wrote: »

They just refuse to then do the job they get voted into.

Rubbish. It's not as if their voters are under the impression that they'll take their seats.

jm08

This will outline the difficulties Spain (and rest of EU) have with the status of Gibraltar, starting with cigarette smuggling which is costing Spain dearly.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/08/defend-gibraltar-condemn-it-as-dodgy-tax-haven

robinph

El Weirdo wrote: »

Rubbish. It's not as if their voters are under the impression that they'll take their seats.

What about the people that didn't vote for them, who represents them in Westminster?

An Ciarraioch

UK government loses its appeal against a Scottish court decision to refer a case on the unilateral withdrawal of Article 50 to the ECJ - unlikely either the Tories or Labour would invoke the power, but the ruling next week will be intriguing!

http://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1064824831722627072

BonnieSituation

Nesta99 wrote: »

This has probably been discussed to death in some other buried thread but why dont Sein Fein take up their Westminster seats to negate the DUP veto they currently hold with their balance of power numbers. For the sake of the discussion lets assume that the numbers will mean that the DUP will be in a position to block parlimentary endorsment of this deal. They have tonight abstained and on one budgetry vote voted with Labour. Its generally considered that Brexit is a serious potential threat to the union, Scotland making waves for another independance referendum and that Northern Ireland could end up pragmatically moving to even closer ties with the Republic. Yes abstentionism is a long help policy for Sein Fein but in the past they had a similar policy toward Dail Eireann(?). If they have an opportunity to influence things in Westminster toward their ultimate goal of a United Ireland, via the current political chaos in the UK and by neutralising the Unionist BoP then why wont they take the potential opportunity to further their goal.

Apologies if I have missed this being explained before and I get that its is likely to be a bit more complex than what Ive said above but the mischievious side of me would love to see the look on the DUP faces if SF were to rock up and take their seats and vote. It would also have the potential of building a kind of trust among the Southern Irish electorate as paragmatism overtakes principle and indeed it would gain huge publicity. Thoughts?

It has been discussed well up this thread repeatedly and usually it needs to be reiterated almost fortnightly.

SF won't do it. Don't have a mandate even if they wanted to. And if they somehow decided it was a good idea to do it, the merest sight of them crossing the lobbies would give pause to those who they would be voting with.

Imagine a Tory remainer voting with SF? Cmon.

BonnieSituation

robinph wrote: »

What about the people that didn't vote for them, who represents them in Westminster?

What about them?

oscarBravo

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What about them?

They don't have an MP.

Nate--IRL--

oscarBravo wrote: »

They don't have an MP.

Correct - a major flaw with FPTP.


Nate

Mortelaro

Regarding SF in Westminster, it would only be for six months and they wouldn't lose many votes by saying we're taking our seats for 6 months to frustrate Brexit in the NATIONAL interest of Ireland
They should be thinking outside the box on this one

Sammy Wilson was absolutely burned on Adam Boulton on Sky news this morning
First time I've seen him in an interview looking genuinely uncomfortable
Boulton: why aren't you fighting for remain when NI voted remain
Sammy Because UK as a whole voted leave
Boulton :But Scotland...
Sammy : London should stay, rest of England leave?
Boulton: Snp are supporting their population voting remain why aren't you

Sammy : Vradakar said there'll be no hard border even if UK go wto,so it's Europe wants this
Boulton : so it's Europe's fault, why is this always everyone else's fault
Sammy : I suggest you go read up
Boulton: I'm fully up to date on NI thanks,so it's everyone else's fault this situation?

Great 10 mins of telly

Water John

The ERG and Mogg scrambling in the face of yesterday's non event/debacle.
Mogg now trying to widen the base appeal to those who don't want TM to lead them into the next election not just Brexiteers.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/nov/20/brexit-dup-defends-not-backing-may-on-budget-saying-consequences-were-inevitable-politics-live

Hope Starmer manages to get Crash out Brexit off the table with a vote in the HoC.

lawred2

Mortelaro wrote: »

Regarding SF in Westminster, it would only be for six months and they wouldn't lose many votes by saying we're taking our seats for 6 months to frustrate Brexit in the NATIONAL interest of Ireland
They should be thinking outside the box on this one

Sammy Wilson was absolutely burned on Adam Boulton on Sky news this morning
First time I've seen him in an interview looking genuinely uncomfortable
Boulton: why aren't you fighting for remain when NI voted remain
Sammy Because UK as a whole voted leave
Boulton :But Scotland...
Sammy : London should stay, rest of England leave?
Boulton: Snp are supporting their population voting remain why aren't you

Sammy : Vradakar said there'll be no hard border even if UK go wto,so it's Europe wants this
Boulton : so it's Europe's fault, why is this always everyone else's fault
Sammy : I suggest you go read up
Boulton: I'm fully up to date on NI thanks,so it's everyone else's fault this situation?

Great 10 mins of telly

would like to have seen that

I like how Sammy is using the Irish Government's efforts to hedge his bets on Brexit...

The DUP can do their union loving pantomime to full effect while still privately banking on the Irish government delivering an open border situation..

AllGunsBlazing

breatheme wrote: »

I'm still scared of Leave winning a second referendum, to be honest.

I suspect remain would probably shade it. But even that won't repair the huge rift that Brexit has already opened up in Britain. Unless another referendum returns a landslide result - which is doubtful.

Mc Love

If there is another ref, the UK will be even more divided and will probably see the rise of Yaxley-Lennon and his gammon army. It wont be a nice place to live but at least if remain wins, they'll still be in the EU.

Water John

Why are people so worried about division and different viewpoints. In any vote there is the minority a la, same sex marriage, who have to get on with life.
I have little time for a lot of the nutters in the extreme Brexit camp. I do care about the large group who genuinely believed UK would be better off outside the EU, following 40 years of press rubbish. But you do what you believe is right for the people and the country.

Hurrache

Mortelaro wrote: »

Regarding SF in Westminster, it would only be for six months and they wouldn't lose many votes by saying we're taking our seats for 6 months to frustrate Brexit in the NATIONAL interest of Ireland
They should be thinking outside the box on this one

Sammy Wilson was absolutely burned on Adam Boulton on Sky news this morning
First time I've seen him in an interview looking genuinely uncomfortable
Boulton: why aren't you fighting for remain when NI voted remain
Sammy Because UK as a whole voted leave
Boulton :But Scotland...
Sammy : London should stay, rest of England leave?
Boulton: Snp are supporting their population voting remain why aren't you

Sammy : Vradakar said there'll be no hard border even if UK go wto,so it's Europe wants this
Boulton : so it's Europe's fault, why is this always everyone else's fault
Sammy : I suggest you go read up
Boulton: I'm fully up to date on NI thanks,so it's everyone else's fault this situation?

Great 10 mins of telly

Many remainers and unionists outraged on Twitter by Boulton's apparent lack of impartiality and ability to listen to answers during that interview, with some even stretching to claim Wilson was brilliant.

seamus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

UK government loses its appeal against a Scottish court decision to refer a case on the unilateral withdrawal of Article 50 to the ECJ - unlikely either the Tories or Labour would invoke the power, but the ruling next week will be intriguing!

If the ECJ were to assert that the UK could unilaterally withdraw A50, it would have impact both in the UK and the EU.

Not least would it give more impetus to a 2nd referendum, since the option to "Just cancel Brexit" would be right there for the taking.

But the EU would also have to modify Article 50 to expressly set out that a withdrawal of notice would require the consent of the other member states. Otherwise you could get the next flavour-of-the-week populist government throwing threats around.

I really don't think the ECJ will rule that it can be withdrawn unilaterally though.

Nody

Water John wrote: »

The ERG and Mogg scrambling in the face of yesterday's non event/debacle.
Mogg now trying to widen the base appeal to those who don't want TM to lead them into the next election not just Brexiteers.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/nov/20/brexit-dup-defends-not-backing-may-on-budget-saying-consequences-were-inevitable-politics-live

Hope Starmer manages to get Crash out Brexit off the table with a vote in the HoC.

And this is the "we got 80 or more members" group that she's been trying to placate the whole time who can't even get 48 letters in. May if anything should take that as a confidence vote and simply ignore that wing of the party and push her own policies now.

UsedToWait

Mc Love wrote: »

and will probably see the rise of Yaxley-Lennon and his gammon army...

Sorry, I thought I was fairly au fait with the details of Brexit, but wtf is this, or has your autocorrect gone haywire?

joe40

Mortelaro wrote: »

Regarding SF in Westminster, it would only be for six months and they wouldn't lose many votes by saying we're taking our seats for 6 months to frustrate Brexit in the NATIONAL interest of Ireland
They should be thinking outside the box on this one

Sammy Wilson was absolutely burned on Adam Boulton on Sky news this morning
First time I've seen him in an interview looking genuinely uncomfortable
Boulton: why aren't you fighting for remain when NI voted remain
Sammy Because UK as a whole voted leave
Boulton :But Scotland...
Sammy : London should stay, rest of England leave?
Boulton: Snp are supporting their population voting remain why aren't you

Sammy : Vradakar said there'll be no hard border even if UK go wto,so it's Europe wants this
Boulton : so it's Europe's fault, why is this always everyone else's fault
Sammy : I suggest you go read up
Boulton: I'm fully up to date on NI thanks,so it's everyone else's fault this situation?

Great 10 mins of telly

I would've liked to have seen that.
I can't stand Sammy Wilson with his 1970's moustache and his 1970's politics

Tell me how

AllGunsBlazing wrote: »

I suspect remain would probably shade it. But even that won't repair the huge rift that Brexit has already opened up in Britain. Unless another referendum returns a landslide result - which is doubtful.

I think that there is trouble ahead. One way or another.

Either Brexit is cancelled or implemented as per current agreement which will lead to euro-sceptics claiming democracy was not adhered to and that this just shows how much power the EU has. Yes they might be small in number but they always were and look how it got to this.

If it goes ahead, then the economic fall out and acrimony from a younger impoverished restricted generation will persist.

Euro-Sceptics in not just the UK will use it as a warning of the strength and motivation of the union if the UK can be beaten in to submission. And, maybe some extremes on the other side will look to capatilise on such a "victory" if it could be called to that to try to increase power within the EU over national political strategies.

robinph

Mortelaro wrote: »

Regarding SF in Westminster, it would only be for six months and they wouldn't lose many votes by saying we're taking our seats for 6 months to frustrate Brexit in the NATIONAL interest of Ireland
They should be thinking outside the box on this one

Have absolutely zero love for SF, but would be delighted if there were to turn up to Westminster. Just them walking through the door would instantly cause the collapse of Con/DUP partnership as May would then be one seat short of a majority and have to call an election or very strongly twist the arm of an independent MP with another £1bn from the magic money tree.

breatheme

To be fair, SF showing up just to collapse the government would be funny.

An Ciarraioch

UsedToWait wrote: »

Mc Love wrote: »

and will probably see the rise of Yaxley-Lennon and his gammon army...

Sorry, I thought I was fairly au fait with the details of Brexit, but wtf is this, or has your autocorrect gone haywire?

Tommy Robinson's real name - reportedly planning a pro-Brexit march.

seamus

robinph wrote: »

Have absolutely zero love for SF, but would be delighted if there were to turn up to Westminster. Just them walking through the door would instantly cause the collapse of Con/DUP partnership as May would then be one seat short of a majority and have to call an election or very strongly twist the arm of an independent MP with another £1bn from the magic money tree.

This is something I had called for, before. But a great point was made above that the sudden appearance of SF could cause some other parties to polarise immediately and vote the opposite way to SF on anything.

Rather than achieving an actual collapse, instead you might get some other cobbled together coalition such as the Lib Dems or SNP joining with the Tories on an "Anyone but the terrorists" agenda.

Sinn Fein are probably about as well-known in Westminster as the DUP, so it wouldn't take very much for the media and party spokespeople to convince the country that making a deal with anyone is better than letting Sinn Féin change the balance of power.

There can be no doubt it would be an enormous disruption in any case. But a rather unpredictable one, IMO.