Property Market 2019

SozBbz · 11-07-2019 9:19am

Twenty Grand wrote: »

Would have thought most new builds would come with en-suite as standard in most rooms.

Reminds me of the student blocks in DCU. Each unit has 2 en-suite bedrooms. One door in the bedroom opens to the kitchen you share with your neighbour, a second door opens to a corridor that leads to a common room you share with your floor.

Are you talking about the first year accommodation? Those are tiny!

sweetie · 11-07-2019 9:20am

SozBbz wrote: »

Are you talking about the first year accommodation? Those are tiny!

If these are the ones that were there circa 25 years ago, you could still have one heck of a party in them!

ZX7R · 11-07-2019 10:25am

astrofool wrote: »

The nation of the 3bed/1bath(upstairs) has problems sharing?

That's why most try to move out and get there own place and space

SozBbz · 11-07-2019 10:26am

sweetie wrote: »

If these are the ones that were there circa 25 years ago, you could still have one heck of a party in them!

Oh yeah, good times, don't get me wrong, and its more like 15 years ago in my case :P, but they were pretty old even then. I've great memories of them, but in hindsight they were very poky and you were living at extremely close quarters. I think they were called Larkfield if I remember rightly?

Anyway, as you went through the years at DCU the standard of accomodation definitely improved. There were ones for second year whereby it was more like a 5 bed apartment with shared living rooms and kitchens. By 3rd or 4th year they were pretty impressive, really nice big rooms, all ensuite etc.

I'd have no issue whit accommodation being built like the better DCU accommodation - apartments purpose built for sharing - I think they each had 4 or 5 bed rooms, but each was an equal size, you'd a double bed and a desk and still room to move about, as well as a decent sized ensuite. Shared open plan kitchen and living room. I can see how that would appeal to young professionals.

Mad_maxx · 11-07-2019 10:55am

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Buyers should wait until next year. They'll begging you take their houses for far less than on offer now. Sit tight, save up and watch supply catch up and the no deal brexit + economy slump.

I'd take the other side of that bet, Brexit won't be as bad and prices will rise again, prices might have eased or fallen in Dublin but they are doing nothing of the sort elsewhere

We will begin the third leg up since the bottom inside a year

Leg 1 ( in Dublin, rest of the country bottomed later) was from spring 2012 to end of 2014,we then paused for eighteen months until right around the brexit vote in June 2016, instead of falling after the vote, prices began rising again from autumn 2016 on and rose another 20% since

rireland · 11-07-2019 11:04am

The only problem with the co-living examples in Dublin is the price, which is a result of the market.

There was a big ruckus about the plans for the Dun Laoighre one and I saw loads of people mocking the size of them or having to share a kitchen with 7 others or such.

Mad_maxx · 11-07-2019 11:05am

FutureGuy wrote: »

I think we have to take each area on it's own merits.

Take limerick for example. Not a lot of new housing stock, and it seems one of the more prominent new builds has ceased building 2 months ago and a second looks like it may be following suit.

We are also seeing a lot of investment from US and International firms who seem to be happy to set up and expand here in the shadow of Brexit.

I can't really see a hit on second-hand prices any time soon, particularly if the help to buy scheme is not renewed.

Limerick is a market I know very well, Limerick is unusual in that it bottomed two full years after Cork and Galway, never mind Dublin

Prices only began to move properly in Limerick in the second half of 2016, as recent as three years ago, it was 40% cheaper to rent or buy than Galway which made no sense, Limerick right now is booming and is every bit as expensive to rent as Galway and no more than 10% cheaper to buy

Limerick is not going to get any cheaper bar a major iceberg, it was far too cheap for far too long and it's not like there was an over supply of property four years ago either

Limerick was the steal of the century in an Irish context in that it was cheap even when money was available, Dublin was for nothing in 2012 but no credit worth talking about, the one drawback to Limerick was that it being a small place, the local auctioneers done their best to ensure quality property wasn't sold cheap to those outside the loop

rireland · 11-07-2019 11:08am

Mike Ashley plans to buy up the whole high street in the UK in a bid to drive down rents. The plan is to threaten to shut down all businesses on a street if they don't reduce rates so he has leverage.

I wonder if all these reits and funds buying all these places will keep rents artificially high.

These funds can afford to keep a place empty until someone meets the price whereas a normal landlord will reduce their price to get an income.

Sheeps · 11-07-2019 4:55pm

The Central Bank seem to be warning now that a hard Brexit will lower the price of property, where before there was speculation that it could result in an increase in prices as funding dries up in the construction sector. Interesting times ahead.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-house-prices-may-be-hit-by-a-hard-brexit-central-bank-warns-1.3953908

beauf · 11-07-2019 5:12pm

Sheeps wrote: »

The Central Bank seem to be warning now that a hard Brexit will lower the price of property, where before there was speculation that it could result in an increase in prices as funding dries up in the construction sector. Interesting times ahead.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-house-prices-may-be-hit-by-a-hard-brexit-central-bank-warns-1.3953908

Both might happen. Funding dries up, supply dries up.

Roulette to be honest. Anything could happen.

Fan of Netflix · 11-07-2019 5:24pm

Sheeps wrote: »

The Central Bank seem to be warning now that a hard Brexit will lower the price of property, where before there was speculation that it could result in an increase in prices as funding dries up in the construction sector. Interesting times ahead.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-house-prices-may-be-hit-by-a-hard-brexit-central-bank-warns-1.3953908

Well, well, well. I've been saying so for quit a while. But the usual suspects here thought the party would never end. Buying overpriced poor quality houses with monopoly money.

Butterface · 11-07-2019 5:28pm

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Well, well, well. I've been saying so for quit a while. But the usual suspects here thought the party would never end. Buying overpriced poor quality houses with monopoly money.

Yeah I was just thinking to myself that Fan of Netflix has been saying that for quite a while.. since May 2019 in fact. :cool:

The Student · 12-07-2019 10:15am

beauf wrote: »

Both might happen. Funding dries up, supply dries up.

Roulette to be honest. Anything could happen.

I suspect you are right. The cost of building will increase as we import a lot of supplies from the UK for construction. These will no doubt be subject to tariffs which will increase the cost of materials and thereby the cost of building.

If the Central Bank rules are maintained then it will even less attractive for developers to develop the land they have so property supply will not increase.

There is speculation that the Cuckoo funds might sell up and go if there is a risk that property prices will fall. I personally am not so sure on this, these funds don't normally sell to individuals rather they sell on to institutional investors. As such the availability of property to purchase by individuals will not increase.

Ush1 · 12-07-2019 10:19am

Sheeps wrote: »

The Central Bank seem to be warning now that a hard Brexit will lower the price of property, where before there was speculation that it could result in an increase in prices as funding dries up in the construction sector. Interesting times ahead.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-house-prices-may-be-hit-by-a-hard-brexit-central-bank-warns-1.3953908

If funding dries up, jobs dry up also. Sounds like the economy overall will be taking a dip.

ZX7R · 12-07-2019 12:31pm

The Student wrote: »

I suspect you are right. The cost of building will increase as we import a lot of supplies from the UK for construction. These will no doubt be subject to tariffs which will increase the cost of materials and thereby the cost of building.

If the Central Bank rules are maintained then it will even less attractive for developers to develop the land they have so property supply will not increase.

There is speculation that the Cuckoo funds might sell up and go if there is a risk that property prices will fall. I personally am not so sure on this, these funds don't normally sell to individuals rather they sell on to institutional investors. As such the availability of property to purchase by individuals will not increase.

Uk import more construction materials from us than we do from them would you believe.
Proper percentage can be found on the UK government website

The Student · 12-07-2019 12:44pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Uk import more construction materials from us than we do from them would you believe.
Proper percentage can be found on the UK government website

Might result in a decrease in construction in both Ireland and the UK so.

Twenty Grand · 12-07-2019 12:52pm

The Student wrote: »

Might result in a decrease in construction in both Ireland and the UK so.

Possibly, but we can always switch to continental suppliers, provided theres a ferry capacity.

The Student · 12-07-2019 1:02pm

Twenty Grand wrote: »

Possibly, but we can always switch to continental suppliers, provided theres a ferry capacity.

The current costs will still rise otherwise we would have been purchasing from continental suppliers all along. The increase in costs would still be lower than the increase in costs from UK if tariffs are imposed.

ZX7R · 12-07-2019 1:35pm

The Student wrote: »

The current costs will still rise otherwise we would have been purchasing from continental suppliers all along. The increase in costs would still be lower than the increase in costs from UK if tariffs are imposed.

Not really we will just import from main land eu , with help in subsidy and tax breaks for the government

voluntary · 12-07-2019 3:03pm

In case of any large job losses there will be no need to build any more and therefore no more pressure on material and labor costs. When economy retreats property prices retreat, is that not obvious?

These are just risks for now, whether they materialise or not is up to speculation. I wouldn't be too pesimistic just yet. I wouldn't be overly optimistic either. Today is not the best time to get a massive debt on your neck. Be reasonable when buying.

The Student · 12-07-2019 3:21pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Not really we will just import from main land eu , with help in subsidy and tax breaks for the government

Subsidizing/tax breaks for the construction industry, that will go down well with the public.

Bluefoam · 12-07-2019 4:43pm

The Student wrote: »

Subsidizing/tax breaks for the construction industry, that will go down well with the public.

But the construction industry is already heavily supported by the tax payer... We give a huge grant to every first time buyer, the deveoper puts the price up to make use of the free money accross the board, increasuing the cost of housing for everyone else. The developers are also guarunteed a certain percentage of sales as social housing... this is paid on the double, one by the council from tax payers money & secondly by the buyers whose prices go up in order to finance the people who live next door to them without paying (in full)

tigger123 · 12-07-2019 5:55pm

Anyone got tomorrows nights lotto numbers?

liam7831 · 13-07-2019 11:30am

tigger123 wrote:

Anyone got tomorrows nights lotto numbers?

Try the gambling section

KaneToad · 13-07-2019 11:37am

No deal Brexit will not happen. There will be a soft Brexit. The UK really want all the benefits of the common market. They will be happy with a Brexit in name type scenario... The WA will be tweaked slightly (inconsequently for Ireland/EU) and accepted by UK as it will be portrayed as a victory. Property prices will not decrease - as a function of Brexit.

There, I've said it.

Zenify · 13-07-2019 11:46am

Article on Bloomberg:

These Are the Countries Most at Risk of Housing Bubbles https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-12/canada-new-zealand-show-signs-of-housing-bubble-says-study

Puts Ireland at number 9

KaneToad wrote: »

No deal Brexit will not happen. There will be a soft Brexit. The UK really want all the benefits of the common market. They will be happy with a Brexit in name type scenario... The WA will be tweaked slightly (inconsequently for Ireland/EU) and accepted by UK as it will be portrayed as a victory. Property prices will not decrease - as a function of Brexit.

There, I've said it.

Em... have you met the DUP? Not the best of people for compromise... they will never agree to a backstop.

4ensic15 · 13-07-2019 11:49am

Bluefoam wrote: »

But the construction industry is already heavily supported by the tax payer... We give a huge grant to every first time buyer, the deveoper puts the price up to make use of the free money accross the board, increasuing the cost of housing for everyone else. The developers are also guarunteed a certain percentage of sales as social housing... this is paid on the double, one by the council from tax payers money & secondly by the buyers whose prices go up in order to finance the people who live next door to them without paying (in full)

That state takes in far more from building houses than it gives out in grants. 12.55 of the price of a new house is VAT. There is prsi and usc on all the labour, there are planning contributions and then corporation tax on the profits.

KaneToad · 13-07-2019 5:22pm

Zenify wrote: »

Em... have you met the DUP? Not the best of people for compromise... they will never agree to a backstop.

New Tory party under Johnson will go to the country & secure a majority. They won't give a toss about the DUP then...

They don't care about them now - they're just propping up the UK govt.

Assetbacked · 13-07-2019 6:34pm

KaneToad wrote: »

New Tory party under Johnson will go to the country & secure a majority. They won't give a toss about the DUP then...

They don't care about them now - they're just propping up the UK govt.

The choice wont be WA or no deal, if they go to the country it will be for staying in the EU or the deal negotiated. Then they won't end up leaving.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 13-07-2019 6:36pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The choice wont be WA or no deal, if they go to the country it will be for staying in the EU or the deal negotiated. Then they won't end up leaving.

WA?

Phileas Frog · 13-07-2019 6:38pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

WA?

Withdrawal Agreement. A Catholic form of contraception, not very effective.

rireland · 13-07-2019 10:35pm

Phileas Frog wrote: »

Withdrawal Agreement. A Catholic form of contraception, not very effective.

It is actually. Pretty good!

Phileas Frog · 13-07-2019 10:41pm

rireland wrote: »

It is actually. Pretty good!

It is, if the withdrawal happens. Quite often, the withdrawal is so prolonged it becomes ineffective

Eric Cartman · 14-07-2019 4:17am

There are companies packaging mortgages back into rmbs’s , companies le ding to builders off the back of promises of deposits on new builds, that last time round the out of normal bounds lending was public, advertised and sold directly to the punter.

Its happening again, this time instead of anglo , nationwide or AIB (big banks) getting it done, the ICB has allowed tiny popup intermediaries backed by funds in other countries or mega funds in Ireland.

There are intrmediaries now bending the rules to the edge of the line.

One of the new tricks now some small firms of 2-3 people in a serviced office operating as an ICB approved intermediary are pulling is to take high value properties (say 1 million) , you do a deal with the vendor where you give them 500k for a long lease now and pay to have an option on the property in 5-10 years time for the balance. The underwriter sees it as a 50% ltv mortgage with little down (its loan to value not mortgage) and in 5 or 10 years time the client has to get an additional mortgage to buy out the freehold / remainder of the property at the value today. Obviously if the property is magically worth 2 million in a decade this is a great deal and inflation will allow them to complete, but if we end up in a brexit based dip or inflation stagnates youre going to have a lot of high value properties defaulted on.

Im sure there are more legal technicalities on it that these people are working around but its effective result is allowing a household on a 150k a year income to purchase a house worth a million. Effectively 6.7x income and well outside ecb rules.

UsBus · 14-07-2019 10:49am

KaneToad wrote: »

No deal Brexit will not happen. There will be a soft Brexit. The UK really want all the benefits of the common market. They will be happy with a Brexit in name type scenario... The WA will be tweaked slightly (inconsequently for Ireland/EU) and accepted by UK as it will be portrayed as a victory. Property prices will not decrease - as a function of Brexit.

There, I've said it.

Doesn't really matter in terms of Ireland's economy and property market. We are being marched off a cliff like lemmings with regard to global stock markets. Have you seen the value of the Dow Jones or s&p 500 lately.? They are off the scale in terms of being overvalued.

Trump is controlling the FED now forcing them into complete 180 turnarounds. He's not interested in anything other then a strong US economy to get him over the line next year and will do or say anything to get there.

We are gonna pay hard for this in the next couple of years..

coolshannagh28 · 14-07-2019 12:38pm

UsBus wrote: »

Doesn't really matter in terms of Ireland's economy and property market. We are being marched off a cliff like lemmings with regard to global stock markets. Have you seen the value of the Dow Jones or s&p 500 lately.? They are off the scale in terms of being overvalued.

Trump is controlling the FED now forcing them into complete 180 turnarounds. He's not interested in anything other then a strong US economy to get him over the line next year and will do or say anything to get there.

We are gonna pay hard for this in the next couple of years..

Trump has incredible leverage with Powell the FED chairman who should be raising rates right now....

Fan of Netflix · 14-07-2019 12:43pm

<SNIP>

alwald · 14-07-2019 6:02pm

I haven't been following the rental market at all and out of curiosity I checked in Daft and there are almost 1500 ads for Co Dublin alone.
Are the Air B&B new rules working? was the stock always in around this level?

hmmm · 14-07-2019 8:46pm

UsBus wrote: »

Doesn't really matter in terms of Ireland's economy and property market. We are being marched off a cliff like lemmings with regard to global stock markets. Have you seen the value of the Dow Jones or s&p 500 lately.? They are off the scale in terms of being overvalued.

I'm sitting on a 100% profit since 2008 in the stock markets, so just as well I didn't listen to people like you.

In my experience, there are always lots of bad things on the horizon, but we (humanity) muddle through. As long as you don't over-extend yourself, you'll be fine.

To bring this back to property, thanks to the Central Bank rules we are not over-extended as a country. It was obvious back in 2007 with people paying 8 times their income, and taxi drivers buying rental properties, and people buying houses in Cape Verde that many were over-extended. .

Mad_maxx · 14-07-2019 11:08pm

hmmm wrote: »

I'm sitting on a 100% profit since 2008 in the stock markets, so just as well I didn't listen to people like you.

In my experience, there are always lots of bad things on the horizon, but we (humanity) muddle through. As long as you don't over-extend yourself, you'll be fine.

To bring this back to property, thanks to the Central Bank rules we are not over-extended as a country. It was obvious back in 2007 with people paying 8 times their income, and taxi drivers buying rental properties, and people buying houses in Cape Verde that many were over-extended. .

The s + p is up 100% since 2013, never mind 2008

Assetbacked · 15-07-2019 8:16am

https://m.independent.ie/business/technology/news/phil-hogan-kept-away-from-powerful-eu-post-to-avoid-conflict-with-tech-giants-38312541.html

This article is exactly why FG are not the party to fix the housing crisis. Big business is better for Ireland than the social comfort of the citizens. Job creation (at full employment now) and the doublespeak term of "growth" of MNCs is the priority of FG and not infrastructure. This attitude applies to their attitude to the housing market too; institutional investors are white horses so don't touch them with tax; tax is for the individual landlords, the proles.

Roberto_gas · 15-07-2019 8:20pm

Mad_maxx wrote:

The s + p is up 100% since 2013, never mind 2008

Exactly 100% profit since 2008 low is very poor!!

4ensic15 · 15-07-2019 8:37pm

alwald wrote: »

I haven't been following the rental market at all and out of curiosity I checked in Daft and there are almost 1500 ads for Co Dublin alone.
Are the Air B&B new rules working? was the stock always in around this level?

This is the time of the year when stock is at its maximum. When the CAO offers come out in a few weeks, all hell will break loose. It looks that there is about double the usual level of supply available at the moment. DAFT shows a lot of price drops so the market has probably peaked.

beauf · 15-07-2019 8:38pm

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Exactly 100% profit since 2008 low is very poor!!

Why? Its been around 8-10% increase per year in last few years but it dropped in the first couple of years.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/prices-down-19-in-2009-1.1239440

People have short memories.

Twenty Grand · 15-07-2019 8:39pm

beauf wrote: »

Why? Its been around 8-10% increase per year in last few years but it dropped in the first couple of years.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/prices-down-19-in-2009-1.1239440

People have short memories.

He's talking about the stock market no?

My shares have gone up 10% in the last month, never mind year.

beauf · 15-07-2019 8:51pm

Ah.

Mad_maxx · 15-07-2019 10:23pm

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Exactly 100% profit since 2008 low is very poor!!

The low waa in 2009 but you were below 10000 for most of 2008

rireland · 16-07-2019 10:40am

Just crash already! No hope of buying without a crash.

And before people say I wouldn't be able buy in a crash...possibly. But at least prices would be at a lower base and more affordable in future.

SozBbz · 16-07-2019 10:42am

rireland wrote: »

Just crash already! No hope of buying without a crash.

And before people say I wouldn't be able buy in a crash...possibly. But at least prices would be at a lower base and more affordable in future.

Delightful sentiment.

I suspect you have no hope of buying.

rireland · 16-07-2019 10:50am

SozBbz wrote: »

Delightful sentiment.

I suspect you have no hope of buying.

Not at current prices no. I have a lump of cash money but my salary isn't high enough to get a mortgage.

Property Market 2019

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