Property Market 2019

Marcus Rashford

Why is the market unsustainable? There’s a populist narrative out there that “people can’t afford homes”. The reality is that people with sh1t jobs can’t afford homes close to the city centre. That’s actually pretty normal by international standards. What we’re actually seeing is unskilled uneducated workers left behind due to globalisation.

Sheeps

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Why is the market unsustainable? There’s a populist narrative out there that “people can’t afford homes”. The reality is that people with sh1t jobs can’t afford homes close to the city centre. That’s actually pretty normal by international standards. What we’re actually seeing is unskilled uneducated workers left behind due to globalisation.

Senior tech worker here who can't afford a home. Sorry but you're wrong.

Amirani

Sheeps wrote: »

Senior tech worker here who can't afford a home. Sorry but you're wrong.

Single or part of a couple?

Because really you need to be part of a couple with good jobs to afford a home in Central Dublin.

Sheeps

Amirani wrote: »

Single or part of a couple?

Because really you need to be part of a couple with good jobs to afford a home in Central Dublin.

I'm not married, earning what a decently paid couple would earn together. I can afford up to about 320k or 335k with HTB, and there's next to nothing in the City for that price that suits my needs. My daily routine is to look on daft for everything second hand in Co Dublin in the last 24 hours, then ill look at Kildare, Wicklow and sections of Meath every 3 days for the last 3 days in my price range. Once a week ill mull over every house available on the market + 20k of my price range. My girlfriend is a foreign so the only consideration for location are avoding areas where there are high racial tensions.

In any case, how is it sustainable that those who are lower paid can't afford to live in the city? Who is supposed to work the jobs that aren't "good"?

coolshannagh28

yagan wrote: »

I see that manipulation line used a lot but how?

From what I saw we had 5-6 years of pent up buyers in Dublin saving cash when rents were ok sitting on the sidelines and then rushing in after 2015.

Yet despite that I know people who sold out their bubble era Dublin property last year and just about break even (not counting the interest they paid!).

I've looked at a few areas around fun laoighaire and little is moving, there just seems to be lots for sale but not for rent. If the stuff on sale was for rent that would the end of the rental crisis.

But I get the feeling many of these empties are speculative punts that are way overpriced for what's shifting. I do wonder though if the price falls since November become established will we get an overall glut in all property types.

There's definitely multinational money sunk into the apartments on the docklands but are they even popular with Irish buyers and renters? Ive read a FT piece mistakenly say that the average rents there were the same for across the entire Dublin market, which in fairness they corrected when it was pointed out.

If the docks are FDI main focus well then there's two Dublin markets.

With regard to manipulation , up to 100000 properties may be in the hands of non bank entities , this must enable management of the market .

Marcus Rashford

Sheeps wrote: »

Amirani wrote: »

Single or part of a couple?

Because really you need to be part of a couple with good jobs to afford a home in Central Dublin.

I'm not married, earning what a decently paid couple would earn together. I can afford up to about 320k or 335k with HTB, and there's next to nothing in the City for that price that suits my needs. My daily routine is to look on daft for everything second hand in Co Dublin in the last 24 hours, then ill look at Kildare, Wicklow and sections of Meath every 3 days for the last 3 days in my price range. Once a week ill mull over every house available on the market + 20k of my price range. My girlfriend is a foreign so the only consideration for location are avoding areas where there are high racial tensions.

In any case, how is it sustainable that those who are lower paid can't afford to live in the city? Who is supposed to work the jobs that aren't "good"?

I’m sorry, but €80k or thereabouts is not what a decently paid couple would earn. Blue collar workers don’t buy properties in the heart of Manhattan or London; why should it be any different in Dublin?

Cut your cloth according to your measure and buy a nice apartment in South Dublin or a small house in North or West County Dublin.

I’m not saying that this is you, but this phoney crisis is characterised by whinging millenials who want everything handed to them on a plate.

Mad_maxx

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

I’m sorry, but €80k or thereabouts is not what a decently paid couple would earn. Blue collar workers don’t buy properties in the heart of Manhattan or London; why should it be any different in Dublin?

Cut your cloth according to your measure and buy a nice apartment in South Dublin or a small house in North or West County Dublin.

I’m not saying that this is you, but this phoney crisis is characterised by whinging millenials who want everything handed to them on a plate.

So many people don't seem to grasp just how wealthy a city Dublin is and how important it is as a centre for various sectors, international capitals at the level of Dublin don't have cheap property

Assetbacked

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

I’m sorry, but €80k or thereabouts is not what a decently paid couple would earn. Blue collar workers don’t buy properties in the heart of Manhattan or London; why should it be any different in Dublin?

Cut your cloth according to your measure and buy a nice apartment in South Dublin or a small house in North or West County Dublin.

I’m not saying that this is you, but this phoney crisis is characterised by whinging millenials who want everything handed to them on a plate.

Dublin is no where like Manhattan or London, not even close and I think the devastation seen around the city during the recession clearly indicates it is a fragile economy rather than an esta lish beacon of success, largely recession proof like Manhattan and London.

Things were of course expected to pick up after the recession but the way they have exploded the past four years has been a shock to society and you only need to go on Daft, search for rentals available in Dublin and compare that to what a decent salary is to see that it is a massive crisis.

Marcus Rashford

The point that many people seem to miss is that €40k is not a good salary.

Dublin is a relatively small city with supply constraints in relation to property.

Yet it’s teaming with people earning well north of €100k a year; lawyers, accountants, tech workers, people in pharma, people in finance.

Throw into the mix the fact that already wealthy people are backstopping their kids’ property purchase. I pity the cliched nurse and guard who want to buy somewhere for €500k only to find that said lawyer is ponying up some or all of the €500k to put their son or daughter into the house.

The takeaway is that unless you’re on a decent salary (and by decent I mean €80k or more per person), forget about living close to the city centre. Eminently reasonable.

Mad_maxx

Assetbacked wrote: »

Dublin is no where like Manhattan or London, not even close and I think the devastation seen around the city during the recession clearly indicates it is a fragile economy rather than an esta lish beacon of success, largely recession proof like Manhattan and London.

Things were of course expected to pick up after the recession but the way they have exploded the past four years has been a shock to society and you only need to go on Daft, search for rentals available in Dublin and compare that to what a decent salary is to see that it is a massive crisis.

No city is in the same class as NYC or London and property in both those cities is far higher than in Dublin, Dublin is however cheaper than Auckland, Vienna, Madrid, yet with higher salaries

beauf

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/income-brackets-ireland-1822710-Dec2014/?amp=1

This if from 2014. But I think you are over estimating the number people on a high salary.

Also it's generally two combined salaries buying property.

We are seeing a copy of London here. Dubliners won't be able to buy in the areas they grew up in and most people will have to move outwards and commute. Lots of foreign investment buys up prime property and land first in the cities then out into the test of the county. That's what happened in the UK and we are simply copying it.

beauf

It's manly shortage that's driving the high prices on Dublin.

If supply picks up it will ease the prices.

jam_mac_jam

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Why is the market unsustainable? There’s a populist narrative out there that “people can’t afford homes”. The reality is that people with sh1t jobs can’t afford homes close to the city centre. That’s actually pretty normal by international standards. What we’re actually seeing is unskilled uneducated workers left behind due to globalisation.

Work in finance with a non **** job and many colleagues are buying very far out of can't save for a deposit because rent is too high. This is effecting a lot of people.

bri007

80k-100k per couple is the norm I would suspect in first time buyers applications.

I think 80k per person is above the norm, while yes I agree many are earning this and above that however I don’t think it’s in the higher percentile I would suspect it’s in the low percentile. Especially first time buyers. (I could be wrong open for correction)

The median salary in Ireland is below as per CSO;

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/elcq/earningsandlabourcostsq32018finalq42018preliminaryestimates/

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

I’m sorry, but €80k or thereabouts is not what a decently paid couple would earn. Blue collar workers don’t buy properties in the heart of Manhattan or London; why should it be any different in Dublin?

Cut your cloth according to your measure and buy a nice apartment in South Dublin or a small house in North or West County Dublin.

I’m not saying that this is you, but this phoney crisis is characterised by whinging millenials who want everything handed to them on a plate.

Zenify

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

The point that many people seem to miss is that €40k is not a good salary.

Dublin is a relatively small city with supply constraints in relation to property.

Yet it’s teaming with people earning well north of €100k a year; lawyers, accountants, tech workers, people in pharma, people in finance.

Throw into the mix the fact that already wealthy people are backstopping their kids’ property purchase. I pity the cliched nurse and guard who want to buy somewhere for €500k only to find that said lawyer is ponying up some or all of the €500k to put their son or daughter into the house.

The takeaway is that unless you’re on a decent salary (and by decent I mean €80k or more per person), forget about living close to the city centre. Eminently reasonable.

Please show proof of this "teaming with people well north of100k".

I found this https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/earnings/earnings-faqs/

It's a few years old but wages aren't that different now.

At a glance it would seem that around 7% of people are on over 50k and it goes way down at 75k.

bri007

I think Marcus Rashford is getting paid far too much money at Man Utd 😂

Zenify wrote: »

Please show proof of this "teaming with people well north of100k".

I found this https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/earnings/earnings-faqs/

It's a few years old but wages aren't that different now.

At a glance it would seem that around 7% of people are on over 50k and it goes way down at 75k.

Subutai

Zenify wrote: »

Please show proof of this "teaming with people well north of100k".

I found this https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/earnings/earnings-faqs/

It's a few years old but wages aren't that different now.

At a glance it would seem that around 7% of people are on over 50k and it goes way down at 75k.

Only about 4% of income earners are on €80,000 or more. We could expect that most of those are late career and not in the market as first time buyers.

Only the top 10% make it to €50,000 or more.

https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/statistics/income-distributors/individualised-gross-income.pdf

Sheeps

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

I’m sorry, but €80k or thereabouts is not what a decently paid couple would earn. Blue collar workers don’t buy properties in the heart of Manhattan or London; why should it be any different in Dublin?

Cut your cloth according to your measure and buy a nice apartment in South Dublin or a small house in North or West County Dublin.

I’m not saying that this is you, but this phoney crisis is characterised by whinging millenials who want everything handed to them on a plate.

Over the last year I've been outbid on a 2 bed apartment in Kilmainham, a 2 bed house in Walkinstown, a 4 bed house in Drogheda, a 3 bed house in City West, a 2 bed house in Inchicore and a 3 bed house in Salins. My expectations have been sunk suitably low for the market that exists at the moment, and there's still not a lot available. I still believe the current market is unsustainable.

Zenify

I think we can all agree there are people in Dublin earning big salaries, but I hope we can now all stop using the words: most, normal, loads and teaming to describe people of 100k.

Marcus Rashford

The workforce is 2.27 million people. Even if only 4% of those are on €80k or more, that’s still over 90,000 people, the vast majority of whom live in Dublin. To state the obvious, that’s a lot of people chasing a finite supply of properties.

And those figures ignore people who are wealthy but suppress their income (by not taking a salary from their company for example).

As an aside, around 8,000 people work for the ESB and their average salary is €80k a year. The bottom line is that €40k a year is a yellow-pack salary in this day and age.

Zenify

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

The workforce is 2.27 million people. Even if only 4% of those are on €80k or more, that’s still over 90,000 people, the vast majority of whom live in Dublin. To state the obvious, that’s a lot of people chasing a finite supply of properties.

And those figures ignore people who are wealthy but suppress their income (by not taking a salary from their company for example).

As an aside, around 8,000 people work for the ESB and their average salary is €80k a year. The bottom line is that €40k a year is a yellow-pack salary in this day and age.

Are you trying to say everyone on 80k is looking to buy a property right now?

Amirani

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

The workforce is 2.27 million people. Even if only 4% of those are on €80k or more, that’s still over 90,000 people, the vast majority of whom live in Dublin. To state the obvious, that’s a lot of people chasing a finite supply of properties.

And those figures ignore people who are wealthy but suppress their income (by not taking a salary from their company for example).

You're again missing the fact that most of those on those high salaries aren't looking to buy properties, particularly not in the first time buyer segment. So your 90,000 number is pretty meaningless in that sense.

But overall, buying in central Dublin on a single salary or a low to average couple salary is going to be difficult because of competition for a relatively small number of appropriate properties.

givyjoe

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Why is the market unsustainable? There’s a populist narrative out there that “people can’t afford homes”. The reality is that people with sh1t jobs can’t afford homes close to the city centre. That’s actually pretty normal by international standards. What we’re actually seeing is unskilled uneducated workers left behind due to globalisation.

What a loathsome, ignorant, inaccurate post.

Interested Observer

Subutai wrote: »

Only about 4% of income earners are on €80,000 or more. We could expect that most of those are late career and not in the market as first time buyers.

Only the top 10% make it to €50,000 or more.

https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/statistics/income-distributors/individualised-gross-income.pdf

I'm counting over 450k people above 50k from the table on the 2nd page there. That's about 16%. Don't mean to split hairs but it's a big increase on 10%, in relative terms.

jam_mac_jam

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

The workforce is 2.27 million people. Even if only 4% of those are on €80k or more, that’s still over 90,000 people, the vast majority of whom live in Dublin. To state the obvious, that’s a lot of people chasing a finite supply of properties.

And those figures ignore people who are wealthy but suppress their income (by not taking a salary from their company for example).

As an aside, around 8,000 people work for the ESB and their average salary is €80k a year. The bottom line is that €40k a year is a yellow-pack salary in this day and age.

The vast majority of those 90,000 would already own their homes.

Samuel T. Cogley

I'm not going to get into the who earns what debate but when working class people can't afford to by in working class areas something is wrong. There are many working class areas in Dublin City and with easy access to Dublin City. Needing €300K+ to buy a decent 3 bed house in Kilbarrack (a place very dear to my heart :P) is not a sustainable market.

That said something needs to be done about the ridiculous cost to build in this country.

Marcus Rashford

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

The workforce is 2.27 million people. Even if only 4% of those are on €80k or more, that’s still over 90,000 people, the vast majority of whom live in Dublin. To state the obvious, that’s a lot of people chasing a finite supply of properties.

And those figures ignore people who are wealthy but suppress their income (by not taking a salary from their company for example).

As an aside, around 8,000 people work for the ESB and their average salary is €80k a year. The bottom line is that €40k a year is a yellow-pack salary in this day and age.

The vast majority of those 90,000 would already own their homes.

Meaning less homes available.

The point is that 90,000 is a huge number.

Excluding houses in places where nobody would want to live, how many properties are there in Dublin?

Interested Observer

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Meaning less homes available.

The point is that 90,000 is a huge number.

Excluding houses in places where nobody would want to live, how many properties are there in Dublin?

Ah right yeah so if these rich people are buying houses then they're the problem and if they're not buying houses then they're also the problem. Great stuff.

beauf

...
The top 16% are not all chasing the same housing stock as the rest of the population. In general.

Subutai

Interested Observer wrote: »

I'm counting over 450k people above 50k from the table on the 2nd page there. That's about 16%. Don't mean to split hairs but it's a big increase on 10%, in relative terms.

Here's a table. It's 10%. If you include the 40-50k band it is about 16%. That band is mostly (if not entirely) people on below 50k. Those on 50k should start in the 50k-60k band.