Property Market 2019

Greyian

Subutai wrote: »

Interested Observer wrote: »

I'm counting over 450k people above 50k from the table on the 2nd page there. That's about 16%. Don't mean to split hairs but it's a big increase on 10%, in relative terms.

Here's a table. It's 10%. If you include the 40-50k band it is about 16%. That band is mostly (if not entirely) people on below 50k. Those on 50k should start in the 50k-60k band.

You're reading the table incorrectly. The 89.99% cumulative is inclusive of 50-60k. Without them, it is 84.35%. This means 15.65% of people fit in the 50k+ bracket, because 50-60k is part of 50k+

OwlsZat

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

That said something needs to be done about the ridiculous cost to build in this country.

This seems to be the elephant in the room when it comes to housing supply. We should have a suspension or significant reduction in the tax take on building new homes/apartments until the housing deficit is cleared. Not heard a single mention of any such idea.

The_Conductor

OwlsZat wrote: »

This seems to be the elephant in the room when it comes to housing supply. We should have a suspension or significant reduction in the tax take on building new homes/apartments until the housing deficit is cleared. Not heard a single mention of any such idea.

Honestly- it wouldn't make one iota difference to the supply of new builds to the market. We are at full pelt in the construction sector- we don't have the labour and skills to build much faster than we currently are doing- and even that is imported skilled people- I had no idea that virtually the entire plumbing skillset was the exclusive domain of Polish plumbers- how did that happen?

The bottleneck for developers- is cashflow related- our traditional lenders do not want to lend to developers- and who can blame them.

Some sort of a scheme to develop massive numbers of council/local authority dwellings, in high density developments- ideally as close to Dublin and/or on public transport links- is critically needed.

Outsourcing development to 'housing associations' and other inefficient tax schemes (which is what most of them are)- hasn't worked- akin to the manner that outsourcing the rental sector to private landlords hasn't worked. We need to bite the bullet- acknowledge that it hasn't worked- and move on.......

kippy

The_Conductor wrote: »

Honestly- it wouldn't make one iota difference to the supply of new builds to the market. We are at full pelt in the construction sector- we don't have the labour and skills to build much faster than we currently are doing- and even that is imported skilled people- I had no idea that virtually the entire plumbing skillset was the exclusive domain of Polish plumbers- how did that happen?

The bottleneck for developers- is cashflow related- our traditional lenders do not want to lend to developers- and who can blame them.

Some sort of a scheme to develop massive numbers of council/local authority dwellings, in high density developments- ideally as close to Dublin and/or on public transport links- is critically needed.

Outsourcing development to 'housing associations' and other inefficient tax schemes (which is what most of them are)- hasn't worked- akin to the manner that outsourcing the rental sector to private landlords hasn't worked. We need to bite the bullet- acknowledge that it hasn't worked- and move on.......

Just to address the plumbing issue - there have been very few plumbers trained in Ireland in the past decade - probably by far the least numbers of all the trades. A lot of plumbers that were around emigrated, some of those that didn't ended up working in other areas with the result that there are few few around now.
It's a "dirtier" job amongst the trades and can be one of the least well paid so finds it hard to attract people into it I would think.

Agree with all of your post.

OwlsZat

The_Conductor wrote: »

Honestly- it wouldn't make one iota difference to the supply of new builds to the market.

When there is a chance for developers/ builders to make a better return it's obvious it would improve the general interest in doing the building. The last time we needed lots of builders they came in droves from eastern Europe. I wonder why something similar isnt happening this time.

airportgirl83

OwlsZat wrote: »

The_Conductor wrote: »

Honestly- it wouldn't make one iota difference to the supply of new builds to the market.

When there is a chance for developers/ builders to make a better return it's obvious it would improve the general interest in doing the building. The last time we needed lots of builders they came in droves from eastern Europe. I wonder why something similar isnt happening this time.

Because in doesn't make sense financially. Back in 2006 unemployment rate in Poland was close to 14%, hence, people were emigrating. It's different now, people can get jobs easily back at home.

hmmm

The_Conductor wrote: »

The bottleneck for developers- is cashflow related- our traditional lenders do not want to lend to developers- and who can blame them.

Some sort of a scheme to develop massive numbers of council/local authority dwellings, in high density developments- ideally as close to Dublin and/or on public transport links- is critically needed.

Yes re the cashflow issue. This campaign against build-to-rent is really beginning to annoy me - there won't be an apartment built in Dublin if they succeed in scaring away these investors.

Agreed that it's time for large, cheap build, affordable high-density housing. Stop pissing around with the 10% or whatever in private estates, it's not working and it's putting developers off building. Stop building social houses, it's a waste of land and resources - apartments only.

snotboogie

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

The workforce is 2.27 million people. Even if only 4% of those are on €80k or more, that’s still over 90,000 people, the vast majority of whom live in Dublin. To state the obvious, that’s a lot of people chasing a finite supply of properties.

And those figures ignore people who are wealthy but suppress their income (by not taking a salary from their company for example).

As an aside, around 8,000 people work for the ESB and their average salary is €80k a year. The bottom line is that €40k a year is a yellow-pack salary in this day and age.

How many earning over 80k are in a relationship with somebody also earning over 80k and are young enough to be in a first time buyer category? Look at the PAYE receipts and it infers that while Dublin has the most high earners it doesn’t have the vast majority of them, about 50% of PAYE is collected in Dublin https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/statistics/receipts/net-receipts-by-county.pdf

Marcus Rashford

50% of PAYE collected despite Dublin only having 25% of the people?

snotboogie

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

50% of PAYE collected despite Dublin only having 25% of the people?

Yes Dublin has by far the most high earners but doesn’t have the vast majority. Two very different statements. Looking at PAYE a significant percentage of that 90,000 earning over 80k are living outside Dublin

Marcus Rashford

snotboogie wrote: »

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

50% of PAYE collected despite Dublin only having 25% of the people?

Yes Dublin has by far the most high earners but doesn’t have the vast majority. Two very different statements. Looking at PAYE a significant percentage of that 90,000 earning over 80k are living outside Dublin

Nonsense

jay0109

OwlsZat wrote: »

This seems to be the elephant in the room when it comes to housing supply. We should have a suspension or significant reduction in the tax take on building new homes/apartments until the housing deficit is cleared. Not heard a single mention of any such idea.

The elephant in the room is immigration, the subject of which we shall never speak. Have you seen PPS numbers issued for the past few years!

enricoh

OwlsZat wrote: »

This seems to be the elephant in the room when it comes to housing supply. We should have a suspension or significant reduction in the tax take on building new homes/apartments until the housing deficit is cleared. Not heard a single mention of any such idea.

Vat on new house is 13.5%. What percentage do builders have to hand over as social housing - iirc 15? Who pays for that - home buyers.

Was talking to an estate agent recently n he was doing his nut. He had deposits down on a clatter of houses in an estate, then the council dealt direct with the builder n bought a third of the total estate for social housing.
When word got out he was handing back deposits left, right and centre. I wouldn't blame them for cancelling buying either

OwlsZat

jay0109 wrote: »

The elephant in the room is immigration, the subject of which we shall never speak. Have you seen PPS numbers issued for the past few years!

Immigration is at fault for the a housing supply issue? Do explain

OwlsZat

enricoh wrote: »

Vat on new house is 13.5%. What percentage do builders have to hand over as social housing - iirc 15? Who pays for that - home buyers.

Was talking to an estate agent recently n he was doing his nut. He had deposits down on a clatter of houses in an estate, then the council dealt direct with the builder n bought a third of the total estate for social housing.
When word got out he was handing back deposits left, right and centre. I wouldn't blame them for cancelling buying either

While it's a daft situation but I've little time for EAs. Add that to the list of problems the total lack of a clear fair process for buying/selling private dwellings and the daft fact that councils are buying from the private market rather than building.

OwlsZat

airportgirl83 wrote: »

Because in doesn't make sense financially. Back in 2006 unemployment rate in Poland was close to 14%, hence, people were emigrating. It's different now, people can get jobs easily back at home.

We keep hearing the wages in the construction sector have gone bananas. Surely we can attract overseas construction talent from somewhere. We should be on the overseas charm offensive poaching young workers. Are there no building firms that offer work across other EU countries?

q85dw7osi4lebg

It's funny that viewers / bidders want evidence of offers and bids but would be horrified if there own personal details were leaked regarding interest in a property, let alone the illegality of it.

OwlsZat

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

It's funny that viewers / bidders want evidence of offers and bids but would be horrified if there own personal details were leaked regarding interest in a property, let alone the illegality of it.

It's funny we don't have a formal process for the largest single purchase of most people's lives.

q85dw7osi4lebg

OwlsZat wrote: »

It's funny we don't have a formal process for the largest single purchase of most people's lives.

I'd say the PSRA / agents are open to suggestions though ! I've had a good think about it myself and I can't come up with a solution that cant be seen as massagable in one way or another.

Worth noting the complaints rarely come from successful bidders too.

OwlsZat

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

I'd say the PSRA / agents are open to suggestions though ! I've had a good think about it myself and I can't come up with a solution that cant be seen as massagable in one way or another.

Worth noting the complaints rarely come from successful bidders too.

Bid in the dark. All bidders must be registered with PPS numbers. Allow all bids up until a fixed time period ie. 1 month. Highest bidder wins. The bidding process should obviously not be managed by a human...

Wildly Boaring

OwlsZat wrote: »

We keep hearing the wages in the construction sector have gone bananas. Surely we can attract overseas construction talent from somewhere. We should be on the overseas charm offensive poaching young workers. Are there no building firms that offer work across other EU countries?

Sure the whole industry got shafted in 2008.
We all got the sack and anyone self employed got left with a massive dept or bankrupt.

Yes money is decent again. It's not bananas in comparison with other industries or other countries. Rent is also bananas. So eastern Europeans ain't coming here to be stung again.

I'm in construction management here. Money is reasonable but sure as hell not bananas. I'd be on twice or even there times in Oz. I know QSs flying in and out of London for triple Irish rates.

q85dw7osi4lebg

OwlsZat wrote: »

Bid in the dark. All bidders must be registered with PPS numbers. Allow all bids up until a fixed time period ie. 1 month. Highest bidder wins. The bidding process should obviously not be managed by a human...

Why the 1 month? Owners are surely entitled to hang on for as long as they want to get the best price possible on the biggest asset of their life ?

There are automated bidding process already with SherryF online etc.

OwlsZat

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Why the 1 month? Owners are surely entitled to hang on for as long as they want to get the best price possible on the biggest asset of their life ?

There are automated bidding process already with SherryF online etc.

That's why I gave an example (i.e.) fixed time. Let it be however long they like. Just make the date clear from the off.

OwlsZat

Wildly Boaring wrote: »

Sure the whole industry got shafted in 2008.
We all got the sack and anyone self employed got left with a massive dept or bankrupt.

Yes money is decent again. It's not bananas in comparison with other industries or other countries. Rent is also bananas. So eastern Europeans ain't coming here to be stung again.

I'm in construction management here. Money is reasonable but sure as hell not bananas. I'd be on twice or even there times in Oz. I know QSs flying in and out of London for triple Irish rates.

Well Oz seems to be playing daft money to everyone. Hell I might even go myself. You could add in the middle East too. I wasn't making out like everyone in the sector is coining it. Rather there must be a heap of Romanians Turks etc who would consider a couple of years here. The same way we send peoole to Oz/Dubai/London. Is there any company that recruits and employees construction workers using that kind of model?

Wildly Boaring

OwlsZat wrote: »

Well Oz seems to be playing daft money to everyone. Hell I might even go myself. You could add in the middle East too. I wasn't making out like everyone in the sector is coining it. Rather there must be a heap of Romanians Turks etc who would consider a couple of years here. The same way we send peoole to Oz/Dubai/London. Is there any company that recruits and employees construction workers using that kind of model?

Yes

Every decent sized steel fixing and shuttering subbie brings in scores of them.

But

Subbies are again fearful to overextend.

You will notice that a lot of the same big boys as the tiger are still building away. BAM, Sisk, Walls, Hegarty....ete....etc

That's because when **** hit fan they just burnt every subbie and supplier they had. Left them out to dry. So why bother getting into bed with them again?

If you're going in with them it is controlled and with as little credit as possible.

There is a serious construction hangover and fear. Once bitten twice shy.

Mad_maxx

OwlsZat wrote: »

Immigration is at fault for the a housing supply issue? Do explain

It's a key component of the demand side, you could build a hundred thousand units per year but if one hundred and fifty thousand people arrive into the country ( overwhelmingly the cities), your going to be short accommodation

Unfortunately this obvious reality has been politicised

Interested Observer

Subutai wrote: »

Here's a table. It's 10%. If you include the 40-50k band it is about 16%. That band is mostly (if not entirely) people on below 50k. Those on 50k should start in the 50k-60k band.

It isn't. There are 84% earning 50k and below. The 89.9% includes the 50-60k earners. Just add up the numbers of 50k+and divide by the total and you get 0.16 ish.

The_Conductor

Apparently we're expecting an increase of 137-140k in Dublin by 2022 (ESRI predictions).
Where these people are supposed to live- is beyond me.

beauf

Or how the hospital's will cope....

Supply and demand. No escaping that.

el Fenomeno

The_Conductor wrote: »

Apparently we're expecting an increase of 137-140k in Dublin by 2022 (ESRI predictions).
Where these people are supposed to live- is beyond me.

Does that figure take into account the lack of available accommodation or is it just based on economic growth, job creation etc.

ie. surely that number will drop quite substantially when they realise they can't find anywhere to live?