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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020
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Good conditions for thunderstorm activity for Connaught, North Munster, North Midlands and many parts of Ulster away from the east, going by that chart alone.
Interestingly, the area's of highest cape were much further south on previous runs and have now shifted north. Its still a fluid situation albeit one with encouraging early signs.
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Might have Thor on our side all right this weekend Comhra :pac:
ICON- EU Higher Res model showing much more potential now for Sat with good CAPE readings and plenty of instability not a lot of shear though but good convergence. Showing Temps in the high teens touching 20 C or so with high DP of 14 to 16C as is ARPEGE but ECM is now cooler and cloudier with lower DP.
Would be very lively if we got what the ECM is showing for Sunday.
Feature of the rainfall over the weekend will be heavy slow moving showers or thunderstorms if they materialize. Met Eireann mentioning possibility of localized spot flooding the weekend.
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Today going by the charts ,in my amateur opinion, Sunday is shaping up to be a very memorable day for Thunderstorms / heavy rain / hail all leading to possible localized spot flooding and possible power outages. Lets be a bit sensationalist about it, haven't seen charts like this for a long time and from what I am seeing having watched the charts closely this last week, all the models are coming on board showing potential for widespread thunderstorms breaking out from early ( might have some storms in the early hours ) some might even be severe in the Western half of the country in the afternoon especially in the W.
Following a relatively mild humid night looks like getting warm and very humid from early morning, troughs transit the country coinciding with peak diurnal heating, the upper low spreads cold air aloft giving very decent or high CAPE readings, all a very slow moving affair with thunderstorms slow moving or near parked giving huge downpours of rain and possibly hail and gusty localized winds. Looking like proper convection. Funnels a possibility. Going by the current charts I would foresee warnings for hazardous driving conditions and spot flooding.
Low level shear, Deep layer Shear looking decent, notable convergence zones, very high Dew Points of 15 or 16C, decent vorticity, high Theta E readings, what could possibly go wrong :pac:
Saturday the ECM is back on board with parameters giving possible thuderstorms for the Southern half of the country.
What do ya think?
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Even better, 1300 J/kg CAPE in the Galway/Mayo area Sunday evening. Unusual to get such high values in Ireland. Applicable shear of around 15 knots from 400-850 hPa is marginal, and with such a narrow CAPE profile, pulse-type storms are likely. All surface-based, so relying on good clear spells to maximise heating.
Interesting weekend ahead if you're west. Are you listening, Oneiric?
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This is equlibrium level for Saturday evening (the temperature at the top of the convection zone, where updrafts loose buoyancy). Values below about -30 °C mean lightning is very likely. In the west it's around -40 °C. Sunday's chart is not available yet but I would reckon it will show similar or even lower. Check out updates here
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/
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I think here in Arklow based on all that,I think its likely that we can fly metal coated kites with long thin metal wires high in our open fields Saturday and sunday without much risk,ditto along the east coast and Dublin
Everyone else further west may stay indoors with earplugs and dark sun glasses and further west still,perhaps secure the delf in the dresser as it might move about or break with the noise
People up through Galway and Mayo sensitive to flash photography would also need to pull down the black out blinds
Speaking of blackouts,I'd advise having phone batteries charged and the stove lit for cooking the dinner out west0 -
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I’m posting this image here because it will probably get about 50,000 thank yous for the fact that is shows the Dublin Area getting what looks like quite a decent storm tomorrow evening! :P
ECM is showing potential around 05.00 or 06.00 Sun morning for Dublin. All down to timing, looks like a trough will transit during the early hours, warm sticky night with a Dp of about 13 or 14C in the E.
WRF shows what I think is the CAPE corresponding with the passage of the trough ?
ICON showing potential also for the E , a bit after the GFS and during the early hours also.
Would need to see tomorrow's charts to be more certain.
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ECM still showing big potential for Sunday, widespread thunderstorms, more so the western half of the country but could get storms a bit in from the Eastern coasts.
Skew T for near Sligo showing plenty of CAPE over 1200 J/kg and Li at -4
For a few runs ECM has been showing the most potential in the W, wouldn't rule out the possibility of some severe storms there Sunday Evening.
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Southern half of the country seeing heavy convective showeres and possible thunderstorms on Saturday. Probably more so from the afternoon into the evening.
Nice convergence zones tomorrow afternoon / evening, will be keep an eye on the highlighted area.
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igCorcaigh wrote: »Imagine!
Have we ever had colour coded thunderstorm warnings?
Lots of times. Don’t recall any red levels though. 0 -
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AROME Hi Res up to early Sun Morning. Showing a line of very heavy rain from possible thunderstorms going through Munster tomorrow afternoon / evening. Looks to coincide with the passage of a trough. Might get a proper storm here in Kerry too. The land could certainly do with it, my ponds are practically dried out.
Only 10 mm rainfall here this month, 41.8mm including May , ground is like rock.
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Struggling to get enthused about this. If we see charts like this closer the time then maybe I might perk up an ear.
but 2 days is a hell long time in the world of model watching and especially in delicate situations like this. No doubt some will see some 'popcorn' type showers but hit and miss jobs at best.New Moon
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Meteorite58 wrote: »AROME Hi Res up to early Sun Morning. Showing a line of very heavy rain from possible thunderstorms going through Munster tomorrow afternoon / evening. Looks to coincide with the passage of a trough. Might get a proper storm here in Kerry too. The land could certainly do with it, my ponds are practically dried out.
Only 10 mm rainfall here this month, 41.8mm including May , ground is like rock.
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Interesting. I've had just over 15 mm and I'm not too far from you.
Think Banna might well be the place to be tomorrow.... Or maybe not 0 -
Given that the ground is so dry at the moment, where is any potential evaporation to help build up those showers going to come from?
I don't think that local soil moisture deficits will actually be a hazard to these storms, in fact I think they'll be an aid! Heat from the day sun will provide the uplift. Dry land radiates heat much better.
The relevant moisture will be imported from Biscay and off Land's End high up into the atmosphere long before it reaches these districts.
I'm counting on the cold -40c's well high up to provide the trigger to all this.
The Wicklow mtns serving as a useful ramp to get the warm moist up into these layers to give the kick...
Ramping a bit here... just like the Wicklows (hopefully)
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SouthWesterly wrote: »Interesting. I've had just over 15 mm and I'm not too far from you.
Think Banna might well be the place to be tomorrow.... Or maybe not
Would love a proper show, AROME our best bet but this might peak inland before it gets to coastal Kerry ? Perhaps W Cork / E Kerry will do well, will need to see tomorrows charts but around Limerick and Clare could feature also.0 -
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