Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Wednesday, 24 June, 2009
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TODAY will be (very) warm and hazy for most, with some cloud to start across parts of central Ireland -- this is the remnants of some heavy showers in Wales yesterday, so needs to be watched for the same sort of development later on today in the northwestern parts of Ireland (being a slow learner I have recently discovered this to be Connaught). In fact, almost anywhere in the western two thirds of Ireland could see a brief shower later today, but most places will stay dry and the sun should become quite strong eventually as some drier air is mixing in -- this will lower the humidity more than the temperature, although the east coast could have a noticeable sea breeze this afternoon. Highs for most of Ireland should reach 23 to 26 C, and even where the sea breeze cools things down a little, it will be into the 18-21 C range. Hopefully I or someone else will spot any heavy showers developing and report on them, anything that does form should drift to the northwest mainly.

TONIGHT will be another fairly clear if hazy night, and quite warm with lows of about 14 to 17 C for most. Some dense fog patches are quite likely especially over districts where rain has fallen in the evening (parts of Mayo and Galway would be a rough guess).

THURSDAY should be quite similar to today, with possibly a slight cooling near the east coast due to a stronger sea breeze. There may be less potential for showers to form as well, although that's not very certain, and highs should reach 23 to 25 C for most places, near 20 C east coast. Winds will tend to back slightly to about due east.

FRIDAY may see a return to somewhat higher humidity levels again as it stays very warm and winds return more to the southeast again. Highs will once again reach 23 to 26 C and there may be somewhat more organized shower or thundershower development in the western half of the country.

SATURDAY is looking very warm and sunny as well with a few isolated thundershowers, highs 24 to 27 C with light sea breezes on most coastlines cooling the immediate shore districts to about 18-20 C.

SUNDAY from this distance looks warm and humid with thundershowers that could become rather heavy in places. Highs will be around 23-25 C away from the coasts. All of the nights from Thursday to early Monday should remain well above 10 C for lowest readings, probably averaging about 14 or 15 C. But as the air dries out later this week, one or two places could drop to 8 or 9 C for a couple of hours, but you likely won't notice unless you're out at 0400 or so.

Thanks to Paulhac for updating yesterday, I missed the entire day in real time due to sleep and then some business that took me away for the day, normally I have a couple of quick looks at the British Isles weather around 3 to 6 pm your time, and I hope to do that today to catch up with any interesting showers or storms. I should just mention (for weather newbies) that sometimes in this kind of weather pattern, you will notice radar echoes at night and early morning that are not really showers or rain, but just false returns off a stable layer near the ground. For example, I'm seeing one or two of those over parts of Wales early this morning. The ones that show up at mid-day are usually real though. If you ever wonder if they are real, check the satellite image for corresponding bright features, if you only see very grey and dull images where the radar echoes are sitting, then it's likely (wait for it) anomalous propagation.

Thursday, 25 June, 2009
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TODAY should continue warm and bright in most parts, although I am a bit concerned about the spread of low cloud into Ireland (as well as eastern England) overnight, and how fast this might dissipate today, given a slightly stronger east wind that may be more noticeable today at 15-25 mph in more exposed locations. This will, however, suppress the sea breeze on the west coast and allow those locations to warm to the maximum extent.

To be on the safe side, I am going to suggest a cloudy start with a brighter late morning, sunny by afternoon in most locations, but don't be surprised if some east coast locations stay foggy or get into a clammy low cloud situation for a while. Highs should be about 22-25 C in the west and central inland districts, near 20 C south coast (15 C over the water) and 18-20 C east coast assuming that it clears up somewhat this afternoon (16 C over the Irish Sea). The chance of showers seems slight although some are moving past the southwest early this morning in a northwesterly direction away from land. However, there could be a few light sprinkles of rain moving west across Clare and Galway towards Mayo this morning.

TONIGHT should see mainly clear skies and less breezy conditions, with fog becoming extensive in some east and south coast locations. Lows will be about 10-13 C inland, and 12-15 C in larger cities and near the coasts.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy, warm and more humid again, with a higher risk of showers developing, once again mainly in the south and west. Highs will be about 23 C with some cooling near the east and south coasts.

SATURDAY also looks very warm and humid with isolated heavy thundershowers possible, highs near 25 C inland, 20 C near the coasts.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY could be somewhat unsettled but with very warm air seeping in from the near continent and the southern UK, it may reach 27 C in places. The situation is less than certain because a strong low well offshore will continue to spin off moisture just to the southwest of Ireland, and if this proves to be more progressive it could bring a lot of rain into the southwest at any point beyond Sunday night. On the other hand, if the pattern stays more blocked than the models are showing today, the warmth could evolve into a heat wave. So the forecast splits the difference and places Ireland on the edge of these two competing systems (for the time being).

UPDATE _ 7:45 pm Thursday 25 June 2009
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I would agree that southeast Ireland will see the arrival of some heavy thundery showers around midnight that may persist for a good part of tonight, and may spread gradually to more south-central parts of Ireland. Meanwhile some other heavy showers are brushing past southwest Kerry and may make a bit more progress inland although the motion on these is mostly to the north.

As far as Friday goes, I expect that this activity will redevelop mainly over the south-central portions of Ireland but may extend to parts of the west, as well as redeveloping at times in the southeast as further waves of moisture arrive. The chances for rainfall are probably about 80% in the southeast, 60% in the central and south-central portions of Ireland, 40% around Dublin, trending down to about 20% in Ulster. For the western third it's about a 50-50 proposition. Amounts in general will be 5-15 mms where rainfall develops, with a few spots seeing 15-25 mms. Quite a few places may remain dry so the overall national average will be perhaps 3-4 mms.

Not much change to forecasts above for the weekend or beyond, it certainly looks unsettled at times on the weekend, and quite warm to hot on Monday and Tuesday, even Wednesday, before nature's air conditioner, the Atlantic, finally wakes up again much later in the week (and that could be pushed back in time as well).

I hope it rains where you want rain and stays dry where you don't. This is a tricky business especially when your neighbour wants rain and you don't. :cool:

Friday, 26 June, 2009
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TODAY, some heavy and at times thundery showers will move across the southern two-thirds of Ireland from a generally southeast to northwest direction. Not all districts will get this heavy rainfall, but where it does occur amounts may reach 25 mms (one inch) or more, and there could be brief stream and urban flooding. Meanwhile, the northern parts of the country will be more likely to remain dry although some showers could develop there eventually. However, it won't be a complete washout by any means, after heavy showers move through, the sun could come out for a time and it will become very warm and very humid as a result -- and that could reload the atmosphere for further showers. A more organized complex of heavy thunderstorms could develop late in the day but I mention this in the "tonight" forecast. Today's highs will probably average out near 23 or 24 C except near the east coast which could stay closer to 19 or 20 C.

Watch for updates from me or other interested Boards members as the radar lights up. At the moment, the heavier rain is south and west of Dublin, moving towards the Midlands, and another band is moving inland from around Waterford towards south Tipperary. Later this morning the heavier rain is likely to be further west and then more clusters may move into the same areas or close to them.

TONIGHT will continue very warm and very humid (for night-time, that is) with lows only dropping to about 14 to 16 C. Many places will have mist or fog from earlier rain, but more heavy thundery showers could develop and move into the southeast in the evening, then spread across other parts of Ireland overnight. Watch for updates. These could be even heavier than last night's action which was reported to be quite intense around south Wicklow and Wexford.

SATURDAY will continue much the same, very warm, very humid, and thundery at times. Highs will reach 25 C or so, between the showers, in many places. It will feel pretty close to 30 C if the sun comes out for any length of time.

SUNDAY may be somewhat less unsettled but there is also the risk of a localized heavy thunderstorm complex in the southeast to start the day. Later on the day may produce more sunshine, very warm to hot temperatures that could reach 27 C or higher (after lows near 16 C) and humidex readings of about 31 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking very warm and humid -- if there are long intervals of sunshine it could reach 28 or even 30 C inland. But there will be some risk of heavy thundery rain at times as well, mainly in the central portions of the country. WEDNESDAY could see more organized thunderstorm development and it will remain very warm, to hot, and humid. LATER in the WEEK, it should cool off very slightly each day with showers and some sunny intervals, with decreasing humidity.

For those who are not weather forum regulars, may I suggest also that you visit our other threads like the thunderstorm thread and the current observations thread at the top of the page, to see more information about current storm activity etc. (I am not always here, virtually speaking).

UPDATE _ Friday, 5:30 pm
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Heavy thundery showers are likely this evening across parts of Mayo. Some light rain is threatening to move into the Dublin region but may be intermittent for most of the evening before some heavier activity develops towards midnight. Will be watching this for potential development to affect a wider area of the east and southeast (currently the cells are over inland north Wales).

Looks like a fine evening for most in other parts of Ireland, enjoy your weekend as it unfolds.

Sunday, 28 June, 2009
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TODAY will bring some cloud with prolonged showers in the southwest, but it appears that this will not move too much further into the rest of Ireland, where skies should remain partly cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times, with warm conditions inland and to the northwest coast. Under the cloud in Kerry, Cork, possibly west Limerick and south Clare, it may remain 20-22 C most of the afternoon. Further east and north highs should be 24 to 27 C except for readings closer to 20 C near the other south coast districts and around to the east coast. Ulster (mostly NI north of Belfast) may see thundery showers at times, but these can't be entirely ruled out anywhere else by afternoon.

TONIGHT the showers in the southwest should begin to break up and remnants may move across the northwest before ending. Other districts should be largely dry if mostly cloudy with mist developing, as it remains warm and close with lows of 12-15 C.

MONDAY will see similar conditions as another area of rain begins to move slowly into the southwest, becoming heavy at times by evening there. This may become associated with some more widespread thundery showers after a mostly dry day with hazy sunshine at times, and warm highs of 24 to 28 C inland, 19-22 C around the coastal districts.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY at the moment looks like being very warm to locally hot with any prolonged sunny intervals bringing temperatures up towards 30 C inland, but the big question is whether or not cloud will be extensive enough to hold down these temperatures to about 25-27 C much of the time. I currently think it will be a mixed bag with some places managing to reach 29 or 30 while others are held down to 25-27, so from this distance I would say to expect very warm conditions but not to count on it being "hot" as such, although in some places it may be. A few thundery showers are probably inevitable but Tuesday will certainly bring a more organized band of them in western districts before the ocean storm finally rotates further away from Ireland.

LATER in the WEEK it should begin to cool back to the lower 20s again, with some thundery showers at times.

UPDATE _ Monday 29/06 at 6:45 pm
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Keeping a close watch on developments to the southwest where ocean buoy K1 (located around 49 N 13 W) recently reports sustained winds at 27 kts and satellite imagery suggests thundery showers developing. A nearby ship report confirms a strong pressure gradient in the vicinity.

Expect this cluster of moderate to heavy showers with 30-40 mph winds to sweep through coastal waters west of Ireland tonight possibly impacting on land in Kerry, Cork and coastal Limerick and Clare between midnight and about 0400h, then slowly moving north to affect Galway and Mayo later tonight. Rainfalls of 25-40 mms are possible with this. Looks at present as though rain amounts and wind speeds will drop off fairly steadily to much lower values in eastern Ireland as this rotates around towards Iceland overnight and tomorrow morning. Will update around 11 pm.

UPDATE _ Wed 1 July, 7:15 pm
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Another batch of heavy and possibly thundery showers is brewing off the south coast, looks to be heading about due north to hit the coast between Cork and Waterford late this evening (about 11 pm) and then spread into much of central and possibly eastern Ireland overnight. I have the impression that this might die out slowly and be followed by another area of heavy showers leading to the predicted heavy thunderstorms and localized torrential rainfall and possible flooding in some areas tomorrow. In any case, the trend is towards widespread rainfall and whether this comes overnight or Thursday, be prepared for the risk of flooding. Would recommend that people have a look at the thread started by Darkman2 as yours truly may be out for several hours now (today is a holiday here).

UPDATE _ Thursday, 2 July, 09 _ 0445h
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Just preparing the forecast but as to current situation, one line of heavy thunderstorms has recently moved north through Dublin and districts about as far west as Athlone, and this is gradually weakening, but another strong line of storms appears to be developing over Wicklow and Carlow, moving generally north towards Dublin, and could be as severe when it arrives around 0630-0730. Will give a more comprehensive forecast about 0520, looks like potential for serious urban flooding today with more activity possible even further into the day.

Thursday, 2 July, 2009
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TODAY will continue very unsettled in the eastern two-thirds of Ireland, although some west coast districts could break into sunshine for a while. There will be several more waves of heavy thundery showers or even torrential rain especially around Wicklow and Dublin, and some distance west into central Ireland. Rainfall amounts of 25-50 mms (1-2 inches) will create some urban and stream flooding. Between showers, it may brighten for a while and warm up to 22-24 C but in the heavy rain it will be about 19 C. I'm sure it will feel like a sauna with the high humidity. Watch for updates as we attempt to track the incoming heavier cells (there is quite a conveyor belt of them from Biscay across Cornwall and southwest Wales into eastern Ireland).

Some southern and western districts may see a bit more sunshine and less rain although few places will be absolutely dry today.

TONIGHT there could be more heavy thundery showers with lows near 18 C in the east, 14 C in the west and north.

FRIDAY, another separate system of heavy showers and thunderstorms will approach from the southwest during the morning and move across Ireland slowly during the day, leading to more heavy and possibly flooding rainfalls of 25-50 mms (1-2 inches) locally. Highs will be about 21-22 C but with high humidity it will feel like about 25-27 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT will continue stormy with stronger winds developing from the south then southwest (20-35 mph) and possibly some hail at times in the sporadic thundery showers.

SATURDAY will become a bit brighter and fresher with continued widespread thundery showers, some with hail. Winds will be southwest at about 25-40 mph and some strong gusts are possible in some showers. Morning lows will be around 13 C and afternoon highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a few more showers mainly across the north and central districts, lows of 8-11 C and highs near 17 C.

NEXT WEEK looks a lot less humid than this week has been, with some rather cool temperatures at times, and passing showers but also longer dry spells.