Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

Meteorite58 · 29-12-2017 9:03pm

Anybody with any experience of how reliable the Europe Swiss HD 4 *4 ( 3 day Model ) , Europe HD Flash and Europe Britain HD are ? ( found on the weather.us site)

ninebeanrows · 29-12-2017 9:08pm

I don't see a single GFS ensemble taking the ECMWF track.... Will be interesting to take a look at the EC ENS

pad199207 · 29-12-2017 9:16pm

Is there similarities to Storm Darwin with this.

ninebeanrows · 29-12-2017 9:18pm

I have taken a quick look at the stamps at 36 hours....The operation is one of the most northwest in position- but it has support of about 10 ensembles, however around 20 ensembles take a track similar to the HIRLAM solution. 10 members take the more southerly GFS solution and 10 don't really engage

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2017 9:19pm

Do not go gently into that dark and windy night, but rage, rage against the dying of the light.

ninebeanrows · 29-12-2017 9:19pm

So this would be the current best-guess for landfall...

hirlamuk-2-39-0.png?29-17

Meteorite58 · 29-12-2017 9:20pm

The HIRLAM would correspond somewhat with Met Eireann's warning I would think but perhaps a bit stronger in this output.

gozunda · 29-12-2017 9:28pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Met Eireann on the ball and Storm Dylan has been born...

Although perhaps a bit hasty with naming regions worst impacted, Munster could be worst affected

I suspect you may be correct ....

pauldry · 29-12-2017 10:04pm

I think Galway n Mayo will be worst affected and Donegal. Maybe even status RED if it gets to 140kph gusts though I think 130kph may be tops at Belmullet n Mace Hd...maybe 120 Finner n Malin

Meteorite58 · 29-12-2017 10:33pm

The ICON 18Z has moved it a bit further North and looking very strong ( but aware it can overdo the wind speed a bit maybe by 5-10 km/h ).

ninebeanrows · 29-12-2017 10:38pm

GFS has edged a bit further northwest

A severe storm

gfs-0-36.png?18

ninebeanrows · 29-12-2017 10:39pm

More impressive on the HIRES GFS- a dangerous storm approaches the west coast towards midnight....

30-515UK.GIF?29-18

Gaoth Laidir · 29-12-2017 10:45pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Anybody with any experience of how reliable the Europe Swiss HD 4 *4 ( 3 day Model ) , Europe HD Flash and Europe Britain HD are ? ( found on the weather.us site)

The Europe Swiss HD 4x4 is their hi-res COSMO model for Europe, the HD flash is I think the Hirlam and the Britain HD is the Euro4.

Meteorite58 · 29-12-2017 10:46pm

Yes they are starting to align better I think.

Oscar Bravo · 29-12-2017 10:48pm

Mace Head around 0400 Sunday should be gusting fairly high!

Neddyusa · 29-12-2017 11:03pm

Which hi-res model had the positioning of this evenings weather fronts most accurately shown yesterday?

Answer might give an indication of which model is most reliable RE tomorrow nights path.

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Some split in the models, this could come down to the wire before the track is known proper ( if that is possible !)

I think the ARPEGE is probably too far North ?

The GFS possibly too far South ?

WRF again maybe too far South ?

Would lean towards the ECM as the most consistent over the last few days but maybe a track a bit more South ? ( cant upload the ECM charts atm )

ICON again taking it more South. Might be more towards this track or a bit further North ?

Meteorite58 · 29-12-2017 11:20pm

Which hi-res model had the positioning of this evenings weather fronts most accurately shown yesterday?

Answer might give an indication of which model is most reliable RE tomorrow nights path.

I think the ICON had a better handle on it than the GFS or WRF, the HIRLAM has been quite consistent too.

Meteorite58 · 29-12-2017 11:50pm

Going by the ECM 12Z pressure charts I make out that when the wave first makes an appearance in the 09.00 chart it has a reading of 990hPa and by the time it deepens to a storm off the W coast at 03.00 it has a reading of 957 hPa. That is a drop of 33 hPa in 18 hrs.

Explosive cyclogenesis otherwise known as a weather bomb I would think.

Jaycornyn · 30-12-2017 12:10am

Is there a chance some counties might see a red warning by tomorrow evening?

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 12:21am

Jaycornyn wrote: »

Is there a chance some counties might see a red warning by tomorrow evening?

IMO if the storm's track brings the winds in over land then I think there is a good chance of a Red Warning for some counties.

stephenjmcd · 30-12-2017 12:45am

With orange warning in effect from 9pm, and looking at the charts albeit at a very novice level, would I be right in saying perhaps red level for the West coast from say 11pm or around mid night until 9/10am ??

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 12:47am

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 12:58am

stephenjmcd wrote: »

With orange warning in effect from 9pm, and looking at the charts albeit at a very novice level, would I be right in saying perhaps red level for the West coast from say 11pm or around mid night until 9/10am ??

Met Eireann updated there forecast a bit : Saturday night will be wet and very windy after a mainly dry start. Storm Dylan will track close to Connacht and Ulster coasts overnight generating mean wind speeds of 60 to 80 km/hr with gusts of up to 120 km/hr in parts of Conancht and Ulster with the strongest winds in coastal counties. Please check Met Eireann website for updates of warnings in operation.

The timing something around then or a bit after. Met Eireann sticking to there guns for now, they have more time to see how this pans out I would say as it is happening overnight on a weekend so less traffic on the roads etc.

The models have changed their track more towards the ECM so important to see what it does on the next run which will be out in the morning for the public.

Rock Lesnar · 30-12-2017 1:02am

Am i right looking at the chart above that north meath could take a bit of hit from this or am i reading it wrong

stephenjmcd · 30-12-2017 1:17am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Met Eireann updated there forecast a bit : Saturday night will be wet and very windy after a mainly dry start. Storm Dylan will track close to Connacht and Ulster coasts overnight generating mean wind speeds of 60 to 80 km/hr with gusts of up to 120 km/hr in parts of Conancht and Ulster with the strongest winds in coastal counties. Please check Met Eireann website for updates of warnings in operation.

The timing something around then or a bit after. Met Eireann sticking to there guns for now, they have more time to see how this pans out I would say as it is happening overnight on a weekend so less traffic on the roads etc.

The models have changed their track more towards the ECM so important to see what it does on the next run which will be out in the morning for the public.

That's what I was thinking with it being mainly an overnight event that they may not increase the warning to a red level.
Heading to Galway myself on the train tomorrow evening due in at 10 so that should be interesting

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 1:24am

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Am i right looking at the chart above that north meath could take a bit of hit from this or am i reading it wrong

On the WRF model and on this run yes, I think the different models are getting more in line with the 12Z ECM . Met Eireann is still talking about Conancht and Ulster and they must have their reasons being the professionals ?

MJohnston · 30-12-2017 2:27am

There's a secondary wind impact that potentially hits in some of the models around NYE 10pm that should be carefully monitored, I think - it could be a danger to folks out celebrating in the south-west. Saturday overnight will be less of a danger in a sense as a lot of people won't be out because of NYE.

M.T. Cranium · 30-12-2017 7:19am

Dylan looks quite compact and the extent of severe gusts may be confined to exposed locations north of Galway Bay around to Malin Head with diminishing impacts further south and east.

I may change my view on that as the storm rapidly develops later today and we can get a better handle on details, but most of the guidance seems to indicate severe winds limited to those counties and in particular coastal Mayo, north Sligo/Leitrim and west/morth Donegal. Gusts to 70 knots or 130 km/hr could occur (0200-0500h).

Galway Bay might briefly see similar intensity when winds are due west but if the current guidance is correct, exposed locations in west Munster might peak closer to 55 knots, Dublin around 52 knots.

Will underscore the uncertainty in my forecast and alert readers to watch for updates -- but that's how I plan to start my forecast response.

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 8:41am

The ECM keeping the strongest winds along coastal counties in the W, NW and N. Perhaps some strong winds in the SW for a time. Seems to be the most consistent and accurate performing model.

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 8:50am

The other models have come more in line with the ECM. Still time for them to drift more N on next runs taking more of the stronger winds off shore.

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 9:03am

Met Eireann current forecast:Tonight, rain will spread northeastwards with strengthening south to southeast winds. From around midnight onwards, it will become stormy in the west and northwest with severe or damaging gusts of up to 120 km/hr. and very windy further east with very strong, gusty southwest winds.

Sunday morning will continue very windy or stormy over the northern half of the country with very strong, southwest winds and severe gusts of up to 120 km/hr. In the late morning and afternoon, winds will gradually ease from the west.

Oscar Bravo · 30-12-2017 9:26am

Update 0800
STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath, Meath and Clare

Update of warning
Tonight and Sunday morning storm Dylan will track northeastwards close to Connacht and Ulster coasts. The biggest impact from the storm will be in western and northern counties with west to southwest winds reaching mean speeds of 65 to 80 km/h with gusts of 110 to 125 km/h. High seas along the west coast too with the risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:

Saturday 30 December 2017 08:00

Valid:

Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 10:00

dmc17 · 30-12-2017 10:18am

Fairly high tides and big swells off the west coast early Sunday morning also

JCX BXC · 30-12-2017 11:47am

Clare added to the orange warning, fun

Debating whether or not to bring in my Davis, I'm not happy with its current setup.

squarecircles · 30-12-2017 11:59am

Anticipating Dylans arrival tonight in West Mayo, we're well used to these winds though.

Any chance the wind gusts could go higher than 125 kmh ?

Gaoth Laidir · 30-12-2017 12:35pm

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/947059494441439233

amandstu · 30-12-2017 12:45pm

That latest MetEireann gif seems to be pushing the winds quite a bit further away from the West coast.

Seems to be very windy weather coming up a few days later though.

Gaoth Laidir · 30-12-2017 12:49pm

ICON seems to be overdoing the gusts a bit, with >160 kph at Belmullet.

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 1:20pm

Interesting that the Met Office keeps the track closer to the coast.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/947062044611809281

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 1:27pm

The 9Z Icon further off shore again.

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 1:32pm

ninebeanrows · 30-12-2017 2:59pm

Probably windier in Dublin now than it will be tomorrow morning!

Long live the ECMWF--- will watch the evolution with interest but so far I cannot see much difference to the evolution progged by the EC. Some very stormy conditions likely for the northwest and i'd say Belmullet will receive a gust in excess of 140kph... but the storm has taken the usual turn to the north when we get closer to T0.

Donegal Storm · 30-12-2017 3:00pm

Been busy all week so only heard mention of this for the first time this morning, looks like it could be a direct hit here in NW Donegal. Fairly standard looking winter gale but will be interesting to see what happens, shame it's early in the morning as I'm planning on taking advantage of one of my last lie ins of the holidays!

nacho libre · 30-12-2017 3:23pm

It seems as if it will be nothing out of the ordinary for the North West.
According to Met Eireann peak gusts will be 77 miles per hour.
A major storm will have gusts of 90 mph or more at Belmullet.

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 3:47pm

WRF and GFS 12Z have moved the storm further off the NW again. Looks like a few counties might get taken off the Orange warning .

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 4:10pm

Gaoth Laidir · 30-12-2017 4:12pm

Knock's TAF is not very exciting. Gusting 48 knots.

TAF EIKN 301100Z 3012/3112 25022G32KT 9999 FEW015 SCT040
TEMPO 3012/3015 -SHRA SCT018CB
BECMG 3014/3016 24014KT
BECMG 3016/3018 15010KT
BECMG 3021/3023 14020G30KT
TEMPO 3021/3024 3000 -RA BKN007
BECMG 3023/3101 23025G35KT
TEMPO 3023/3106 24035G48KT TEMPO 3103/3112 -SHRA SCT018CB
BECMG 3106/3109 24015G25KT
BECMG 3109/3112 24009KT=

Taking that with the Harmonie animation I posted earlier leads me to think that Met Éireann see a bit of a downgrade. We'll see in their update at 4 pm.

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 4:19pm

Taking that with the Harmonie animation I posted earlier leads me to think that Met Éireann see a bit of a downgrade. We'll see in their update at 4 pm.

I think so too, the 12Z ICON though bringing the storm track closer again with a wider windfield. Hasen't performed well far out but normally not far off the mark closer to the event although inclined to overcook the wind speeds.

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2017 4:34pm

Interesting how the ICON has the storm track curve around Ireland, on this run it has brought it in closer hugging the coast more.

I wonder if the Jet eased off a bit as in the chart below could this have the effect of letting the Storm slow a bit and drift in more towards Ireland ?

rEKauJv.gif?1

ninebeanrows · 30-12-2017 4:59pm

If it looks like a fish, smells like a fish and feels like a fish , it's probably a fish. &#55357;&#56834;

Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

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