Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

Meteorite58

The first wind warning for the weekend, bound to be more on the way, looking very lively at times. Can change the title as the weekend goes on if needed.

Met Eireann

National Weather Warnings


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, North Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Southwest winds gradually veering westerly will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65km/h, with gusts between 90 and 110km/h. Winds will become strong in the southwest at first and extend northwards later in the night and tomorrow morning.

Issued:Thursday 28 December 2017 16:00
Valid:Thursday 28 December 2017 23:00 to Friday 29 December 2017 14:00


Updated Warning from Met Eireann

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for South Wexford, Galway, north Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and south Waterford
Overnight and on Friday morning, southwest winds gradually veering westerly will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65km/h, with gusts between 90 and 110km/h.

Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 00:00
Valid:Friday 29 December 2017 00:01 to Friday 29 December 2017 13:00



National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath
Storm Dylan is expected to affect Ireland on Saturday night /early Sunday morning. Its expected track is northeastwards through Donegal Bay and up along the north-Ulster coast. The biggest impact from the storm will be across Connacht and Ulster where mean winds will reach speeds of 60 to 80 km/h with gusts of up to 120km/h.


Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 09:00
Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wexford, Wicklow and Offaly
West to southwest winds from Storm Dylan will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h and gusts of 90 to 110km/h later on Saturday night /Sunday morning.

Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 15:00
Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00

Meteorite58

The first strong winds for the weekend. The second set of winds arriving into the SW /W around 21.00 tomorrow evening set to be stronger again for more parts of the country.

Meteorite58

Including current model forecast winds for tomorrow night/ early Sat as set to be quite strong. From following this the last few days shows the models changing in each run , sometimes upgrading and sometimes downgrading, I would imagine that forecasters will be monitoring this closely over the weekend as could experience very strong winds in places at times. A fast moving / evolving windy spell and potentially stormy in places at times.

Meteorite58

Current model runs for later Sat evening into Sun morning. A difference in the models but the ECM has been showing this for a few days now in one form or the other. By the way this is the strongest they have shown it.

ninebeanrows

12z EC ain't as strong

Meteorite58

Weathercheck wrote: »

12z EC ain't as strong

I see that now, strongest winds off and along the coasts and in the W / NW later.

Meteorite58

Worth Noting .



[IStorm Forecast
Valid: Thu 28 Dec 2017 06:00 to Fri 29 Dec 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 28 Dec 2017 01:17
Forecaster: GATZEN][/I]

A level 2 was issued for southern Ireland and the northern Celtic Sea mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent tornadoes.


A powerful 65 m/s mid-level jet streak approaches over western Europe late in the period. A well-developed tropopause fold evolves and crosses the North Atlantic west of Ireland and enters the Celtic Sea. At low levels, a moist maritime air mass advects into the area with a south-westerly low-level jet. This air mass is slightly unstable given steep mid-level lapse rates that overlap with the rich moisture. Therefore, some thunderstorms are forecast along the cold front in the night and morning hours. Further north across southern Ireland and the southern Irish Sea, strong low-level stretching is expected to result in steep low-level lapse rates and weak CIN. Along the cold front, a narrow rain band could develop into a line of thunderstorms. With strong flow at lot to mid levels, severe wind gusts are forecast with this convective line. Additionally, tornadoes are not ruled out given large SRH ahead of the cold front. Severe winds further north are expected to be non-convective.



Marine Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning
1. South to southeast winds veering southwest will reach gale or strong gale force tonight on coasts from Carnsore Point to Valentia to Erris Head.

2. Southwest to West gales or strong gales on all Irish coastal waters and the Irish Sea overnight and tomorrow, with storm force winds for a time along southern and western coasts.

Issued:Thursday 28 December 2017 18:00


Jet

Meteorite58

Some strong winds showing up on the models running through the center of the country tomorrow morning ( not as strong in the centre of the country on the ARPEGE or ICON )

Meteorite58

Looking like a country wide windy night Fri into Sat morning as a low tracks very close to the W of Ireland producing possible strong winds there and the NW and N. Even at this stage not fully resolved.

Meteorite58

Potential wind storm Sat night/ Sun morning.

Met Eireann: Another spell of heavy rain will move into the southwest from the Atlantic Saturday evening and extend to all areas during Saturday night in strong locally gale force southwesterly winds, possibly severe, damaging winds in some western areas for a time….. please stay up to date with forecasts and warnings.





ARPEGE showing the storm well off the coast.

Soccarboy11

Very windy in Cork ATM, just got woken up due to it. Lashing rain too.

Gaoth Laidir

42 gust 60 knots at Mace Head at 7 am.

ninebeanrows

EC has upped the ante, further northwest than GFS though, two major models suggesting a damaging storm event tomorrow night...

Still a wide spread in guidance at this late juncture.


GFS




EC

JCX BXC

There was a gust of 53kts in Cork Airport according to the 6:30am METAR.

ninebeanrows

Taking a look at ENS postage stamps, circa 35/50 members bring notable storm close to Ireland @ 48 hours. I note there is still a wide range of tracks so very uncertain which part of the country gets a direct hit. The largest clustering is for a track similar to the Op but still a large minority bringing a direct hit to inland Ireland also.

With the event now a mere 36 hours away- it is a very difficult call, but i would expect Orange warnings to be issued this evening.

ninebeanrows

6z ICON first out of the traps and it isn't pretty..

ninebeanrows

GFS 6z a little less deep than 0z and a bit further south as a result...but same theme, perhaps model average now moving further southeast than EC operational..

ninebeanrows

Actually on the higher res GFS, there really isn't too much difference, a steady forecast for a high impact wind-event into central Ireland

ninebeanrows

Hirlam onboard- violent winds approach the southwest by midnight Saturday, some slight filling as it move inland but inland gales and severe wind gusts..






Sustained 110-120km/hr approach the Shannon Estuary...

squarecircles

Orange wind warning issued by met eireann for storm Dylan.

ninebeanrows

Met Eireann on the ball and Storm Dylan has been born...

Although perhaps a bit hasty with naming regions worst impacted, Munster could be worst affected

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath
Storm Dylan is expected to affect Ireland on Saturday night /early Sunday morning. Its expected track is northeastwards through Donegal Bay and up along the north-Ulster coast. The biggest impact from the storm will be across Connacht and Ulster where mean winds will reach speeds of 60 to 80 km/h with gusts of up to 120km/h.

Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 09:00
Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow and Offaly
Southwest winds from Storm Dylan will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with gusts up to 100 km/h on Saturday night /early Sunday morning.

Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 09:00
Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00

Oscar Bravo

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath

Storm Dylan is expected to affect Ireland on Saturday night /early Sunday morning. Its expected track is northeastwards through Donegal Bay and up along the north-Ulster coast. The biggest impact from the storm will be across Connacht and Ulster where mean winds will reach speeds of 60 to 80 km/h with gusts of up to 120km/h.

Issued:

Friday 29 December 2017 09:00

Valid:

Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow and Offaly

Southwest winds from Storm Dylan will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with gusts up to 100 km/h on Saturday night /early Sunday morning.

Issued:

Friday 29 December 2017 09:00

Valid:

Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for South Wexford, Galway, north Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and south Waterford

Overnight and on Friday morning, southwest winds gradually veering westerly will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65km/h, with gusts between 90 and 110km/h.

Issued:

Friday 29 December 2017 00:00

Valid:

Friday 29 December 2017 00:01 to Friday 29 December 2017 13:00

Gaoth Laidir

Did storm Dylan not affect the UK a week or so ago??

Darwin

Seems a bit odd that Laois not mentioned on the weather warnings, perhaps an oversight? GFS shows max 66 Knots gust predicted for my region early Sunday vs 57 Knots peak predicted for Ophelia!

Meteorite58

I think we can expect another warning for winds overnight into Sat and wouldn't be surprised to see the Orange warning tweaked before the storm' s final track and intensity is determined for Sat night into Sun morning.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/946654584952578048

Trees reported by Kerry County Council down near Kenmare and Ballybunion now cleared. Gusting around 70 km/h here near Tralee.


https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/946693864844414977


https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/946697591307239424

Meteorite58

Early hours of Sat to midday looking very windy along the W and NW coasts

sryanbruen

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Did storm Dylan not affect the UK a week or so ago??

That was the media sensationalising as usual, not actually named by the meteorological services.

Meteorite58

Europe Swiss Model projections Sat into Sun for Storm Dylan.

squarecircles

Am I seeing things or is that 180 kmh wind gusts off the west coast in that chart !!!

ninebeanrows

Euro4 having a disaster or onto something?

Obviously has UKM global boundary conditions so should explain it - but serious discrepancies in the forecast at the moment...

And at 42 hours...

downwiththatsor

Weathercheck wrote: »

Euro4 having a disaster or onto something?

Obviously has UKM global boundary conditions so should explain it - but serious discrepancies in the forecast at the moment...

And at 42 hours...

Euro4 seems to have been all over the place with updates etc the past few days so wouldnt take much notice of it on its own.

Harry Palmr

My empted bin was felled by the wind

peasant

emmm...

On Ventusky (which I found to be fairly accurate during Ophelia) the Icon model currently shows the following wind gust values for Sunday morning:

03:00h 170 km/h near Lahinch
04:00h 195 km/h in the Dublin mountains

03:00 - 04:00h gusts of 140-160 km/h pretty much anywhere between Clare/Galway and Dublin/Wicklow coasts.

Ok...this is still a bit far out and probably not all that correct...but scary nonetheless.

What are the chances of something of this severity to actually happen?

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.99;-7.28;7&l=gust&t=20171231/04&m=icon_eu

Captain Snow

peasant wrote: »

emmm...

On Ventusky (which I found to be fairly accurate during Ophelia) the Icon model currently shows the following wind gust values for Sunday morning:

03:00h 170 km/h near Lahinch
04:00h 195 km/h in the Dublin mountains

03:00 - 04:00h gusts of 140-160 km/h pretty much anywhere between Clare/Galway and Dublin/Wicklow coasts.

Ok...this is still a bit far out and probably not all that correct...but scary nonetheless.

What are the chances of something of this severity to actually happen?



https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.99;-7.28;7&l=gust&t=20171231/04&m=icon_eu

That's a class website. Thank you.:)

Soccarboy11

Longford has been downgraded from Orange to Yellow it looks like!

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Louth, Westmeath and Meath

ninebeanrows

Latest GFS rolling out, bringing a more southerly track to the storm- significantly different (relatively) to the EC and models incorporated into the MetE forecast warning..

ninebeanrows

GFS Low res..





GFS High res.. direct hit

downwiththatsor

Yeah looks like more a Cork Kerry max gusts zone if Gfs is correct

ninebeanrows

ICON going for the Clare to Dublin track also

ninebeanrows

Hirlam holding with EC type scenario, although a bit further south, a severe event...

eigrod

I know local wind strength & timings are difficult to predict, but is Dublin Airport likely to be affected around 11pm tomorrow (Saturday) night?

Oscar Bravo

Small changes in the 1500 update

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath
Storm Dylan is expected to affect Ireland on Saturday night /early Sunday morning. Its expected track is northeastwards through Donegal Bay and up along the north-Ulster coast. The biggest impact from the storm will be across Connacht and Ulster where west to southwest winds with mean speeds of 60 to 80 km/h with gusts of up to 120km/hr. High seas along the west coast too with the risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 15:00
Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wexford, Wicklow and Offaly
West to southwest winds from Storm Dylan will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h and gusts of 90 to 110km/h later on Saturday night /Sunday morning.

Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 15:00
Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00

ninebeanrows

12z still tracking the storm up the Donegal bay with centre staying well off land to the northwest!!!

Some disagreement at such a short range.

aisling86

What time do the next set of charts roll out? Are we looking at a more southerly track?

ninebeanrows

ECMWF has centre around 958hPa off the northwest coast @ 6am Sunday

ninebeanrows

aisling86 wrote: »

What time do the next set of charts roll out? Are we looking at a more southerly track?

Still significant uncertainty, indeed- unsual for such a short-range- haven't seen such a poor handle on developments in many years.

ninebeanrows

Attached are the high res ECMWF progs

ninebeanrows

WRF NMM for 6am Sunday

Meteorite58

Some split in the models, this could come down to the wire before the track is known proper ( if that is possible !)

I think the ARPEGE is probably too far North ?



The GFS possibly too far South ?



WRF again maybe too far South ?



Would lean towards the ECM as the most consistent over the last few days but maybe a track a bit more South ? ( cant upload the ECM charts atm )


ICON again taking it more South. Might be more towards this track or a bit further North ?

Meteorite58

IMO this has the potential to be a severe storm, moving along quite quickly but damaging. If it produces a track and intensity similar to the ICON's then there could be considerable damage and power outages I would Imagine and moving into the Red Warning zone. I don't know what track it is going to take but I would imagine that the models will align better with a couple of more runs.

Some of the European models showing peak winds running through the middle of the country also.

Another couple runs before having confidence in track and strength.