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Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

  • 28-12-2017 6:34pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The first wind warning for the weekend, bound to be more on the way, looking very lively at times. Can change the title as the weekend goes on if needed.

    Met Eireann

    National Weather Warnings


    STATUS YELLOW


    Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, North Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
    Southwest winds gradually veering westerly will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65km/h, with gusts between 90 and 110km/h. Winds will become strong in the southwest at first and extend northwards later in the night and tomorrow morning.

    Issued:Thursday 28 December 2017 16:00
    Valid:Thursday 28 December 2017 23:00 to Friday 29 December 2017 14:00


    Updated Warning from Met Eireann

    National Weather Warnings

    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for South Wexford, Galway, north Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and south Waterford
    Overnight and on Friday morning, southwest winds gradually veering westerly will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65km/h, with gusts between 90 and 110km/h.

    Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 00:00
    Valid:Friday 29 December 2017 00:01 to Friday 29 December 2017 13:00



    National Weather Warnings

    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath
    Storm Dylan is expected to affect Ireland on Saturday night /early Sunday morning. Its expected track is northeastwards through Donegal Bay and up along the north-Ulster coast. The biggest impact from the storm will be across Connacht and Ulster where mean winds will reach speeds of 60 to 80 km/h with gusts of up to 120km/h.


    Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 09:00
    Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wexford, Wicklow and Offaly
    West to southwest winds from Storm Dylan will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h and gusts of 90 to 110km/h later on Saturday night /Sunday morning.

    Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 15:00
    Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


«13456715

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The first strong winds for the weekend. The second set of winds arriving into the SW /W around 21.00 tomorrow evening set to be stronger again for more parts of the country.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Including current model forecast winds for tomorrow night/ early Sat as set to be quite strong. From following this the last few days shows the models changing in each run , sometimes upgrading and sometimes downgrading, I would imagine that forecasters will be monitoring this closely over the weekend as could experience very strong winds in places at times. A fast moving / evolving windy spell and potentially stormy in places at times.

    tempresult_xwy4.gif

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Current model runs for later Sat evening into Sun morning. A difference in the models but the ECM has been showing this for a few days now in one form or the other. By the way this is the strongest they have shown it.


    ECU1-72_fzg7.GIF

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    12z EC ain't as strong


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    12z EC ain't as strong


    I see that now, strongest winds off and along the coasts and in the W / NW later.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Worth Noting .

    psNNWXG.png

    [IStorm Forecast
    Valid: Thu 28 Dec 2017 06:00 to Fri 29 Dec 2017 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Thu 28 Dec 2017 01:17
    Forecaster: GATZEN][/I]

    A level 2 was issued for southern Ireland and the northern Celtic Sea mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent tornadoes.


    A powerful 65 m/s mid-level jet streak approaches over western Europe late in the period. A well-developed tropopause fold evolves and crosses the North Atlantic west of Ireland and enters the Celtic Sea. At low levels, a moist maritime air mass advects into the area with a south-westerly low-level jet. This air mass is slightly unstable given steep mid-level lapse rates that overlap with the rich moisture. Therefore, some thunderstorms are forecast along the cold front in the night and morning hours. Further north across southern Ireland and the southern Irish Sea, strong low-level stretching is expected to result in steep low-level lapse rates and weak CIN. Along the cold front, a narrow rain band could develop into a line of thunderstorms. With strong flow at lot to mid levels, severe wind gusts are forecast with this convective line. Additionally, tornadoes are not ruled out given large SRH ahead of the cold front. Severe winds further north are expected to be non-convective.



    Marine Weather Warnings


    STATUS ORANGE

    Gale Warning
    1. South to southeast winds veering southwest will reach gale or strong gale force tonight on coasts from Carnsore Point to Valentia to Erris Head.

    2. Southwest to West gales or strong gales on all Irish coastal waters and the Irish Sea overnight and tomorrow, with storm force winds for a time along southern and western coasts.

    Issued:Thursday 28 December 2017 18:00


    Jet

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Some strong winds showing up on the models running through the center of the country tomorrow morning ( not as strong in the centre of the country on the ARPEGE or ICON )


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looking like a country wide windy night Fri into Sat morning as a low tracks very close to the W of Ireland producing possible strong winds there and the NW and N. Even at this stage not fully resolved.

    tempresult_ybr5.gif

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Potential wind storm Sat night/ Sun morning.

    Met Eireann: Another spell of heavy rain will move into the southwest from the Atlantic Saturday evening and extend to all areas during Saturday night in strong locally gale force southwesterly winds, possibly severe, damaging winds in some western areas for a time….. please stay up to date with forecasts and warnings.

    tempresult_eib7.gif

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    ARPEGE showing the storm well off the coast.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 579 Soccarboy11


    Very windy in Cork ATM, just got woken up due to it. Lashing rain too.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    42 gust 60 knots at Mace Head at 7 am.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    EC has upped the ante, further northwest than GFS though, two major models suggesting a damaging storm event tomorrow night...

    Still a wide spread in guidance at this late juncture.


    GFS

    48-515UK.GIF?29-0


    EC

    ECU1-48.GIF?29-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    There was a gust of 53kts in Cork Airport according to the 6:30am METAR.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Taking a look at ENS postage stamps, circa 35/50 members bring notable storm close to Ireland @ 48 hours. I note there is still a wide range of tracks so very uncertain which part of the country gets a direct hit. The largest clustering is for a track similar to the Op but still a large minority bringing a direct hit to inland Ireland also.

    With the event now a mere 36 hours away- it is a very difficult call, but i would expect Orange warnings to be issued this evening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    6z ICON first out of the traps and it isn't pretty..
    iconeu_uk1-2-44-0.png?29-10

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    GFS 6z a little less deep than 0z and a bit further south as a result...but same theme, perhaps model average now moving further southeast than EC operational..

    gfs-0-42.png?6?6


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Actually on the higher res GFS, there really isn't too much difference, a steady forecast for a high impact wind-event into central Ireland

    42-515UK.GIF?29-6


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Hirlam onboard- violent winds approach the southwest by midnight Saturday, some slight filling as it move inland but inland gales and severe wind gusts..

    hirlamuk-2-42-0.png?29-11

    hirlamuk-2-48-0.png?29-11


    Sustained 110-120km/hr approach the Shannon Estuary...

    hirlamuk-3-43-0.png?29-11


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    Orange wind warning issued by met eireann for storm Dylan.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Met Eireann on the ball and Storm Dylan has been born...

    Although perhaps a bit hasty with naming regions worst impacted, Munster could be worst affected
    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath
    Storm Dylan is expected to affect Ireland on Saturday night /early Sunday morning. Its expected track is northeastwards through Donegal Bay and up along the north-Ulster coast. The biggest impact from the storm will be across Connacht and Ulster where mean winds will reach speeds of 60 to 80 km/h with gusts of up to 120km/h.

    Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 09:00
    Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow and Offaly
    Southwest winds from Storm Dylan will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with gusts up to 100 km/h on Saturday night /early Sunday morning.

    Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 09:00
    Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath

    Storm Dylan is expected to affect Ireland on Saturday night /early Sunday morning. Its expected track is northeastwards through Donegal Bay and up along the north-Ulster coast. The biggest impact from the storm will be across Connacht and Ulster where mean winds will reach speeds of 60 to 80 km/h with gusts of up to 120km/h.

    Issued:

    Friday 29 December 2017 09:00

    Valid:

    Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow and Offaly

    Southwest winds from Storm Dylan will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with gusts up to 100 km/h on Saturday night /early Sunday morning.

    Issued:

    Friday 29 December 2017 09:00

    Valid:

    Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for South Wexford, Galway, north Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and south Waterford

    Overnight and on Friday morning, southwest winds gradually veering westerly will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65km/h, with gusts between 90 and 110km/h.

    Issued:

    Friday 29 December 2017 00:00

    Valid:

    Friday 29 December 2017 00:01 to Friday 29 December 2017 13:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Did storm Dylan not affect the UK a week or so ago??


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,526 ✭✭✭ Darwin


    Seems a bit odd that Laois not mentioned on the weather warnings, perhaps an oversight? GFS shows max 66 Knots gust predicted for my region early Sunday vs 57 Knots peak predicted for Ophelia!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    I think we can expect another warning for winds overnight into Sat and wouldn't be surprised to see the Orange warning tweaked before the storm' s final track and intensity is determined for Sat night into Sun morning.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/946654584952578048

    Trees reported by Kerry County Council down near Kenmare and Ballybunion now cleared. Gusting around 70 km/h here near Tralee.


    https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/946693864844414977


    https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/946697591307239424


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Early hours of Sat to midday looking very windy along the W and NW coasts

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Did storm Dylan not affect the UK a week or so ago??

    That was the media sensationalising as usual, not actually named by the meteorological services.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Europe Swiss Model projections Sat into Sun for Storm Dylan.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    Am I seeing things or is that 180 kmh wind gusts off the west coast in that chart !!!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Euro4 having a disaster or onto something?

    Obviously has UKM global boundary conditions so should explain it - but serious discrepancies in the forecast at the moment...

    And at 42 hours...

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