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Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

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    #32
    downwiththatsor
    Registered Users Posts: 910 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Euro4 having a disaster or onto something?

    Obviously has UKM global boundary conditions so should explain it - but serious discrepancies in the forecast at the moment...

    And at 42 hours...

    17123100_2906.gif

    Euro4 seems to have been all over the place with updates etc the past few days so wouldnt take much notice of it on its own.


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    #33
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    My empted bin was felled by the wind


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    #34
    peasant
    Registered Users Posts: 17,819 ✭✭✭✭peasant


    emmm...

    On Ventusky (which I found to be fairly accurate during Ophelia) the Icon model currently shows the following wind gust values for Sunday morning:

    03:00h 170 km/h near Lahinch
    04:00h 195 km/h in the Dublin mountains

    03:00 - 04:00h gusts of 140-160 km/h pretty much anywhere between Clare/Galway and Dublin/Wicklow coasts.

    Ok...this is still a bit far out and probably not all that correct...but scary nonetheless.

    What are the chances of something of this severity to actually happen?

    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.99;-7.28;7&l=gust&t=20171231/04&m=icon_eu


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    #35
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 602 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    peasant wrote: »
    emmm...

    On Ventusky (which I found to be fairly accurate during Ophelia) the Icon model currently shows the following wind gust values for Sunday morning:

    03:00h 170 km/h near Lahinch
    04:00h 195 km/h in the Dublin mountains

    03:00 - 04:00h gusts of 140-160 km/h pretty much anywhere between Clare/Galway and Dublin/Wicklow coasts.

    Ok...this is still a bit far out and probably not all that correct...but scary nonetheless.

    What are the chances of something of this severity to actually happen?



    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.99;-7.28;7&l=gust&t=20171231/04&m=icon_eu

    That's a class website. Thank you.:)


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    #36
    Soccarboy11
    Registered Users Posts: 579 ✭✭✭Soccarboy11


    Longford has been downgraded from Orange to Yellow it looks like!

    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Louth, Westmeath and Meath


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    #37
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Latest GFS rolling out, bringing a more southerly track to the storm- significantly different (relatively) to the EC and models incorporated into the MetE forecast warning..


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    #38
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    GFS Low res..

    gfs-0-42.png?12

    gfs-0-42.png?12?12

    GFS High res.. direct hit
    39-515UK.GIF?29-12

    42-515UK.GIF?29-12


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    #39
    downwiththatsor
    Registered Users Posts: 910 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Yeah looks like more a Cork Kerry max gusts zone if Gfs is correct
    12_36_windvector_gust.png?cb=532


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    #40
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ICON going for the Clare to Dublin track also

    iconeu_uk1-2-37-0.png?29-16

    iconeu_uk1-2-42-0.png?29-16


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    #41
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Hirlam holding with EC type scenario, although a bit further south, a severe event...

    hirlamuk-2-39-0.png?29-17

    hirlamuk-2-42-0.png?29-17


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    #42
    eigrod
    Registered Users Posts: 7,594 ✭✭✭eigrod


    I know local wind strength & timings are difficult to predict, but is Dublin Airport likely to be affected around 11pm tomorrow (Saturday) night?


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    #43
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,099 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Small changes in the 1500 update

    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath
    Storm Dylan is expected to affect Ireland on Saturday night /early Sunday morning. Its expected track is northeastwards through Donegal Bay and up along the north-Ulster coast. The biggest impact from the storm will be across Connacht and Ulster where west to southwest winds with mean speeds of 60 to 80 km/h with gusts of up to 120km/hr. High seas along the west coast too with the risk of coastal flooding.

    Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 15:00
    Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wexford, Wicklow and Offaly
    West to southwest winds from Storm Dylan will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h and gusts of 90 to 110km/h later on Saturday night /Sunday morning.

    Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 15:00
    Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


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    #44
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    12z still tracking the storm up the Donegal bay with centre staying well off land to the northwest!!!

    Some disagreement at such a short range.


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    #45
    aisling86
    Registered Users Posts: 586 ✭✭✭aisling86


    What time do the next set of charts roll out? Are we looking at a more southerly track?


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    #46
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ECMWF has centre around 958hPa off the northwest coast @ 6am Sunday


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    #47
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    aisling86 wrote: »
    What time do the next set of charts roll out? Are we looking at a more southerly track?

    Still significant uncertainty, indeed- unsual for such a short-range- haven't seen such a poor handle on developments in many years.


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    #48
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Attached are the high res ECMWF progs


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    #49
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    WRF NMM for 6am Sunday

    nmmuk-11-42-0.png?29-18

    nmmuk-2-42-0.png?29-18


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    #50
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,895 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Some split in the models, this could come down to the wire before the track is known proper ( if that is possible !)

    I think the ARPEGE is probably too far North ?

    arpegeuk-53-40-0_hfa6.png

    The GFS possibly too far South ?

    tempresult_dge3.gif

    WRF again maybe too far South ?

    tempresult_qdn0.gif

    Would lean towards the ECM as the most consistent over the last few days but maybe a track a bit more South ? ( cant upload the ECM charts atm )


    ICON again taking it more South. Might be more towards this track or a bit further North ?

    tempresult_gid3.gif


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    #51
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,895 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    IMO this has the potential to be a severe storm, moving along quite quickly but damaging. If it produces a track and intensity similar to the ICON's then there could be considerable damage and power outages I would Imagine and moving into the Red Warning zone. I don't know what track it is going to take but I would imagine that the models will align better with a couple of more runs.

    Some of the European models showing peak winds running through the middle of the country also.

    Another couple runs before having confidence in track and strength.


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    #52
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,895 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Anybody with any experience of how reliable the Europe Swiss HD 4 *4 ( 3 day Model ) , Europe HD Flash and Europe Britain HD are ? ( found on the weather.us site)


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    #53
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I don't see a single GFS ensemble taking the ECMWF track.... Will be interesting to take a look at the EC ENS


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    #54
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,139 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Is there similarities to Storm Darwin with this.


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    #55
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I have taken a quick look at the stamps at 36 hours....The operation is one of the most northwest in position- but it has support of about 10 ensembles, however around 20 ensembles take a track similar to the HIRLAM solution. 10 members take the more southerly GFS solution and 10 don't really engage


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    #56
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,376 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Do not go gently into that dark and windy night, but rage, rage against the dying of the light.


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    #57
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    So this would be the current best-guess for landfall...

    hirlamuk-2-39-0.png?29-17


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    #58
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,895 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The HIRLAM would correspond somewhat with Met Eireann's warning I would think but perhaps a bit stronger in this output.

    tempresult_iob0.gif


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    #59
    gozunda
    Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Met Eireann on the ball and Storm Dylan has been born...

    Although perhaps a bit hasty with naming regions worst impacted, Munster could be worst affected

    I suspect you may be correct ....


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    #60
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,924 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I think Galway n Mayo will be worst affected and Donegal. Maybe even status RED if it gets to 140kph gusts though I think 130kph may be tops at Belmullet n Mace Hd...maybe 120 Finner n Malin


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    #61
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,895 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The ICON 18Z has moved it a bit further North and looking very strong ( but aware it can overdo the wind speed a bit maybe by 5-10 km/h ).

    tempresult_gcw4.gif


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