Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

demfad · 14-03-2019 5:10pm

Inquitus wrote: »

Well it was roughly 70-72 ERG who voted against the 2nd WA vote and 10 DUP, so there is likely enough to swing it, if they are unanimous.

The DUP would prefer a Soft Brexit to the backstop IMO.

That was why Corbyn tried to court them before.

Leroy42 · 14-03-2019 5:10pm

If the DUP and the ERG signal they will vote for the deal it will pass as some MP's are voting against it on the basis that it would not pass anyway so essentially there is no risk.

If the numbers look to be close, which MP will want to be the one(s) remembered for causing the UK to crash out?

Inquitus · 14-03-2019 5:10pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Just realised the error in my maths.

Wouldn't they insist on changing the WA anyway though?

I think its finally dawning on them it's this Brexit or No/Much Softer Brexit.

An Ciarraioch · 14-03-2019 5:11pm

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I think she needs 326 votes for it to pass. Which would mean she needs an extra 84 votes

650-7(SF) = 643, also Speaker doesn't vote unless there's a tie, so 322, I think.

Duane Dibbley · 14-03-2019 5:15pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

650-7(SF) = 643, also Speaker doesn't vote unless there's a tie, so 322, I think.

I edited my post and got 320 based on this from the Guardian in Nov 2018

How much support does May need to get her plan through parliament?
She needs the support of 320 MPs to be guaranteed a win. While the Commons has 650 MPs, 11 do not take part in voting – the Speaker, John Bercow and his three deputies; and the seven Sinn Féin MPs. That leaves 639, meaning 320 will get her over the line

.

gooch2k9 · 14-03-2019 5:23pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

650-7(SF) = 643, also Speaker doesn't vote unless there's a tie, so 322, I think.

The grand finale at the end of Brexit; Bercow getting the final call. You'd know this was all just a grand "social experiment" at that point!

According to the Tory whips, they will vote against any amended motion. Does this mean they won't go for any extension unless it's their one? What then?

Water John · 14-03-2019 5:25pm

The Govn't in effect have at this point accepted yesterday's vote and will not a Crash out Brexit happen. For us in Ireland that is the main problem off the table.

BluePlanet · 14-03-2019 5:31pm

Water John wrote: »

The Govn't in effect have at this point accepted yesterday's vote and will not a Crash out Brexit happen. For us in Ireland that is the main problem off the table.

It's not off the table as the clock is still ticking and only the UK can stop it.

dresden8 · 14-03-2019 5:32pm

Water John wrote: »

The Govn't in effect have at this point accepted yesterday's vote and will not a Crash out Brexit happen. For us in Ireland that is the main problem off the table.

It is very much still on the table.

tuxy · 14-03-2019 5:34pm

As said, leaving with no deal in the case of no agreement is written into UK law, there is nothing in UK law about avoiding no deal.
The non binding votes are just to advise parliament on what direction it should try to take, it does not mean they will achieve it.

Professor Moriarty · 14-03-2019 5:37pm

If May puts forward her deal again, it is quite likely that the Kyle/Wilson amendment will be put forward. This amendment, if voted through, would mean that May's deal would have to be put to a referendum - if the deal is voted through. In that case, the EU would probably be very happy to offer an extension. It would also take no deal off the table.

Laois_Man · 14-03-2019 5:38pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They lost by 149 last time though. The ERG and DUP between them don't command nearly enough votes.

There are a lot more Tory MPs that support the ERG than the number who are actual members of it though.

Indestructable · 14-03-2019 5:42pm

In the case of a MV3, it's quite possible that the ERG and DUP will vote for it but some Tory remainers will switch their votes now that the Governments threat of No Deal is off the table.

The remainers will gamble that a second referendum or softer Brexit will follow a third defeat.

Water John · 14-03-2019 5:44pm

Whilst leave on the 29th March is still in the Law, both Gove and Lidington have signalled that the Law will be changed as we get to that date, if necessary.
That respects yesterday's vote. Yvette Cooper shows her mettle.

ancapailldorcha · 14-03-2019 5:50pm

Laois_Man wrote: »

There are a lot more Tory MPs that support the ERG than the number who are actual members of it though.

I'm aware of this. Last number I read for the number of MP's who'd vote with them was 70 (including the actual ERG MP's).

Professor Moriarty · 14-03-2019 5:53pm

Shadow Brexit Secretary just said that there should be a public vote on a credible Brexit option. So now Labour officially backs a second referendum.

robinph · 14-03-2019 5:53pm

Water John wrote: »

Whilst leave on the 29th March is still in the Law, both Gove and Lidington have signalled that the Law will be changed as we get to that date, if necessary.
That respects yesterday's vote. Yvette Cooper shows her mettle.

Liddington saying that they will have a bunch of votes about what it is that parliament wants two weeks after the 22nd March(?) in order to try and get one of the amendments dropped which would have the result of taking power away from the government is basically confirming they will make the change at the last minute to cancel the no deal exit. If that is a cancellation of A50 in the event of an extension being rejected is another matter of course.

tuxy · 14-03-2019 5:59pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm aware of this. Last number I read for the number of MP's who'd vote with them was 70 (including the actual ERG MP's).

Wouldn't the 70 ERG + 10 DUP be enough to turn around a 149 vote loss and win by 11?

Professor Moriarty · 14-03-2019 6:01pm

tuxy wrote: »

Wouldn't the 70 ERG + 10 DUP be enough to turn around a 149 vote loss and win by 11?

I'm open to correction, but quite a few ERG members voted for her deal this week on the basis that they saw Brexit slipping away otherwise.

Loafing Oaf · 14-03-2019 6:03pm

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

Bercow in theory could push back on May bringing the same deal for a vote again?

Probably won’t happen but it’s intersting to consider

https://news.sky.com/story/an-ancient-rule-means-bercow-could-take-drastic-action-on-brexit-11664555

I suppose the question then becomes would he want to. Doing so would presumably push the UK towards a crashout, and he is believed to have remainer sympathies, so...

joe40 · 14-03-2019 6:08pm

Indestructable wrote: »

In the case of a MV3, it's quite possible that the ERG and DUP will vote for it but some Tory remainers will switch their votes now that the Governments threat of No Deal is off the table.

The remainers will gamble that a second referendum or softer Brexit will follow a third defeat.

Yeah I see your point.
My head is starting to hurt at this stage.

Harry Palmr · 14-03-2019 6:15pm

This amendment H seems pretty pointless unless you like reading the runes.

No surprise - the No's have it.

Amendment I amendment (!)

14-03-2019 6:22pm

Labour front bench supporting Benn amendment. Some fun if this passes, equivalent to last nights shenanigans if it does.

SimonTemplar · 14-03-2019 6:25pm

What is the origin of the unicorn phrase? I must have missed that.

charlie14 · 14-03-2019 6:25pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Just realised the error in my maths.

Wouldn't they insist on changing the WA anyway though?

Even the ERG must know at this stage that is not going to happen.
They are really in the last chance saloon after last nights Malthouse amendment defeat shone a light on them.
If the UK crashes out with no deal it will be through default rather than design as there is no support for such a scenario.
For what it is worth, my opinion is that the ERG are nwo looking at either no exit or one a long way down the road if they do not back TM`s deal.
They will, like the DUP now realising the same, look for a way to climb down with some face.
It would not surprise me if that is by way of misrepesenting the Vienna Convention.
After all, misrepesentation is what they have show themselves to be particularly good at.

franglan · 14-03-2019 6:28pm

Was it Beth Rigby with the uniform comment to Boris first off?

Harry Palmr · 14-03-2019 6:33pm

Amendment to Amendment I result 311/314 noes have it by 3.

The substantive Hilary Benn amendment now follows

Hurrache · 14-03-2019 6:34pm

SimonTemplar wrote: »

What is the origin of the unicorn phrase? I must have missed that.

Seeking something that doesn't exist, a fantasy.

Laois_Man · 14-03-2019 6:38pm

43 Labour MPs disobeyed the whip in the 2nd referendum vote!

Chaos on all sides about everything as usual!

prawnsambo · 14-03-2019 6:53pm

So Theresa May has kept control of the process by just two votes.

14-03-2019 6:55pm

Thought Benn had a chance of passing tbh. What does this parliament want I wonder? Remainer Tory votes cancelled out by Leave Labour votes I'd say.

EDIT: Lidingtons April proposal on this probably made the difference.

Professor Moriarty · 14-03-2019 6:56pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Thought Benn had a chance of passing tbh. What does this parliament want I wonder? Remainer Tory votes cancelled out by Leave Labour votes I'd say.

There were quite a few abstentions.

CelticRambler · 14-03-2019 6:57pm

Meanwhile, away from Westminster
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1106223651332993024

Chris Grayling's No Deal planning stopped by the discovery of a WWII bomb at Manston Airport - that was laid by the RAF to destroy the airfield if the Nazis invaded. Sort of makes sense in this week

:pac:

An Ciarraioch · 14-03-2019 7:06pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There were quite a few abstentions.

http://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1106253326981697537

charlie14 · 14-03-2019 7:17pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1106253326981697537

How close that vote was will further concentrate the ERG minds I imagine.

Shelga · 14-03-2019 7:20pm

I’m starting to glaze over from the voting fiascos.

Can anyone summarise what the upshot of today’s votes is?

Inquitus · 14-03-2019 7:21pm

Shelga wrote: »

I’m starting to glaze over from the voting fiascos.

Can anyone summarise what the upshot of today’s votes is?

3rd WA Vote by Weds next week.

franglan · 14-03-2019 7:23pm

Inquitus wrote: »

3rd WA Vote by Weds next week.

When you really think about voting for the same thing for a third time while looking at the majorities of the past two votes - extraordinary times we live in.

tuxy · 14-03-2019 7:23pm

Inquitus wrote: »

3rd WA Vote by Weds next week.

Nice, gives her time to get a 4th one in by the 27th with a very slight change to it after taking to the EU at the EU summit!

Frank Bullitt · 14-03-2019 7:24pm

Inquitus wrote: »

3rd WA Vote by Weds next week.

I thought this was only a rumour? How does she expect this to ever pass if the EU have said (time and time again), that the deal won't change?

Laois_Man · 14-03-2019 7:26pm

Motion to request Art. 50 extension passed by a majority of 210

Now the little matter of agreeing on what to request it for!!

joe40 · 14-03-2019 7:32pm

tuxy wrote: »

Inquitus wrote: »

3rd WA Vote by Weds next week.

Nice, gives her time to get a 4th one in by the 27th with a very slight change to it after taking to the EU at the EU summit!

Funny how a second referendum would be undemocratic but MPs can vote on the same thing multiple times.

upupup · 14-03-2019 7:32pm

I propose an amendment to lock the doors of the hoc now,cut the power and phones lines and do not open the doors until march 29th.

An Ciarraioch · 14-03-2019 7:34pm

Gintonious wrote: »

I thought this was only a rumour? How does she expect this to ever pass if the EU have said (time and time again), that the deal won't change?

She said on the floor of the House that if it doesn't pass by the 20th, she'll have to seek a longer extension.

charlie14 · 14-03-2019 7:35pm

Gintonious wrote: »

I thought this was only a rumour? How does she expect this to ever pass if the EU have said (time and time again), that the deal won't change?

It is not going to change. All in the HoC know that so the only options after these votes and last nights is either vote for it, or have a extension delaying Brexit for a long time or indeed never.

At least that is my reading off it

CelticRambler · 14-03-2019 7:36pm

franglan wrote: »

When you really think about voting for the same thing for a third time while looking at the majorities of the past two votes - extraordinary times we live in.

Well hopefully we'll never again hear any Leavers use Ireland's second votes on the revised/clarified Lisbon & Nice treaties as examples of bullying - especially if their preferred MPs vote for Mays WA next week.

charlie14 · 14-03-2019 7:37pm

upupup wrote: »

I propose an amendment to lock the doors of the hoc now,cut the power and phones lines and do not open the doors until march 29th.

No food or drink and it might even work.

Worked in a papal election once allegedly.

Frank Bullitt · 14-03-2019 7:38pm

charlie14 wrote: »

It is not going to change. All in the HoC know that so the only options after these votes and last nights is either vote for it, or have a extension delaying Brexit for a long time or indeed never.

At least that is my reading off it

Despite them taking No Deal off the table though, thats not law though is it? Is it not just a vote for preference?

prawnsambo · 14-03-2019 7:38pm

upupup wrote: »

I propose an amendment to lock the doors of the hoc now,cut the power and phones lines and do not open the doors until march 29th.

I'm sure the Pope would loan them his special stove for the duration.

Hurrache · 14-03-2019 7:39pm

Gintonious wrote: »

Despite them taking No Deal off the table though, thats not law though is it? Is it not just a vote for preference?

It's not off the table really, it's the default if there's no agreement.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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