Tesla Talk

Amazon's a reasonable shout as an acquirer -- they've already invested in Rivian, not averse to huge capital expenditure, the semi could complement their expanding logistics ambitions, and autonomous driving could help solve the last mile in delivery too.

Still more likely they remain independent -- Musk doesn't have any problem raising money.

sk8board wrote: »

Would you buy a RWD model S though?

Sure. I actually don't really like AWD. Takes the spirit out of driving. And in this country you don't need it either.

The cost of tyres would be the least of my worries if I bought an aging out of warranty Tesla Model S

copeyhagen wrote: »

4 year old cars are hardly aging!

Generally I would agree with that. But first generation Tesla Model S were poorly build with poor reliability, many needing eye wateringly expensive parts replaced. Now they were all under warranty so didn't cost the owner anything, but the 4+ year old cars are now out of warranty. That would worry me

That said battery and drivetrain are under warranty for 8 years

unkel wrote: »

I feel an early Model S is overpriced at this stage. 5, nearly 6 years old, with asking prices of €50k, no thanks

For €30k, maybe.

I'm waiting. Not very patiently, but waiting anyway

I am waiting with you. There has to be a drop on the way one the model 3 is available in the uk.

£25k for an AP1 is my trigger.

Tuned in via YouTube and it was pretty interesting investor event last night. Self driving feature complete sometime in 2019(*) and launching fleetwide "in 2020(*)" for any cars with AP computer version 3 which is 21 times faster than the currently shipping Nvidia AP2 computer. Cars made after November 2016 are all compatible with AP3 computer so Tesla will potentially have a robotaxi fleet of 1 million cars by that time. Legislation is lagging behind so needs to be addressed first. Musk drives the latest development versions of full self drive and summon and admitted that "they are not ready for deployment quite yet" but that they operate on totally different level from the competition and once the product is ready it will be able drive on any road (or other drivable surfaces) anywhere on earth.

A not so subtle dig to Audi SUV's efficiency. "Oh E-tron... etron, if you speak French you get it". And that 2012 Model S 85 has still longer range than the next best competitor in 2019.

Lots of questions from the investors about negative publicity and Elon seemed a bit lost on how to deal with it. Bloomberg was mentioned, i.e. Musk should have a chat with him. Also somebody from the odeon suggested a Tesla myth rebuttal page which was received well. Marketing is pointless as it's wasting money and Tesla sells any vehicles they can manufacture regardless. The same reason was given about moving to Indian market: too much bureaucracy for what it's worth. Can't currently make enough cars to serve the other markets.

More global factories a key to cater for the demand and to shorten the time from manufacture to money in due to long delivery times to international markets as well as to combat import duties and taxes. Europe site will be next but location is not selected yet. He hinted something about Germany I think. It's balancing act as expanding too rapidly will lead the company running out of money but they will have to expand rapidly enough to cater for the global markets. The Chinese GF building itself has now been completed and the process installation is on the way.

Tesla won't be able launch more models before manufacturing is sorted out. Both battery cell and vehicle/battery pack capacity needed to launch both Model Y and the Semi. Pickup Truck will be revealed by the end of the summer and can do anyting than a F150 can do but better. Model Y according to Musk has market potential of 290% over the Model 3 which sounds about right. There are lots of customers who need more seats or a hatchback for a dog etc. etc. He said that they have a conservative estimation of Model Y volume production by end of 2020 but likely before that sometime in next summer.

Musk seem to still be burning the candle from both ends. The delivery of facts and projection was typical Musk genius style. Love or loathe. I have been a fan since Model X lauch event.

(*) Elon time so there could be a delay.

jusmeig wrote: »

In relation to GF China, finished means just the very small portion they are using for 3 production? They surely have not build that big yoke from the render with the tapered corners in 6 months?

Musk mentioned that the factory building itself has been completed and that it has a yearly capacity of half a million cars or a bit more which would be currently 23% (I think that was the number) of the total Chinese BEV market. One of the questions was that will that be enough for China and the answer was that Tesla may have to build another factory in some other place than Shanghai in China due to the logistics (again). Nothing was mentioned about further building work needed in Shanghai, just the assembly lines under construction now.

Model 3 will be initial product and as communicated before I suspect the cars will be shipped not only to China but other regions too until the local giga factories have been built to Europe and other locations. And moving lots of Model 3 production in China will free space in Fremont for production of new cars like the Model Y.

Mike9832 wrote: »

Could they do European production in China?

Surely cheaper than doing it in the US?

Makes sense to ship them from the location that has lowest import duties. Not sure how US/China compare in that respect but the production cost will be somewhat cheaper in Shanghai both due to cheaper labour and more optimised production due to learnings from US factories.

Sabre Man wrote: »

Elon has said that won't happen, so unless he changes his mind I don't see it happening.

And of course Elon is not known to be volatile. :pac::D

I think Volvo makes S90 in China so it may be beneficial. It could make delivery of custom models faster, as there is decent ground link to Europe.

copeyhagen wrote: »

there's not a hope that the autonomous driving will happen in the next 5 years surely?

I would almost bet my house on it. Have you seen the Tesla Driver UK videos on youtube? Autopilot seems to struggle on anything but ideal driving conditions (i.e motorways, dual carraigeways etc).
Even the latest video of Advanced summon doesnt look promising. It drives in a straight line from where it was parked to where the driver is standing, driving across other parking spots etc.
How they can say FSD is next year is beyond me.

copeyhagen wrote: »

there's not a hope that the autonomous driving will happen in the next 5 years surely?

Why are you so sure? The dev builds of these cars have been driving autonomously for years.

ELM327 wrote: »

On known roads though.
They could do full autonomy now from "on ramp to off ramp" (ie NOA with no prompts) but not on country lanes etc.


Fully guided driver assists will be here by end of year able to cope with 99.999% of scenarios, but the ability to be 100% confident 'hands off' will take a lot longer

Autopilot isn't based on knowing the roads but on machine learning.

I'm contemplating a model S with AP1, just because I didn't see the autonomy realistically from a legal point of view being ready in the next few years.

I wonder if in fact they WILL be able to retrofit the AP3 to odler cars with some swap down the line, by the time its actually ready.

Mike9832 wrote: »

Pure AI?

lol

Only this year could AI beat gamers at starcraft

Still games it can't beat human's at

Starcraft is much more complicated than driving
Planes have been taking off and landing themselves for years, are you afraid of flying?

handlemaster wrote: »

the solar roof is really just a joke, they cant and havent delivered.

Tesla is basically a very small electric car company, with add on notions.

The car models I find are look a little old looking to , the styling needs to be updated, i.e. new models are needed.

The solar roof is being rolled out in 8 states. That's version 3 of the roof. It's a work in progress.