Wednesday, 13 January, 2010
TODAY, leftover moisture from Tuesday's stormy weather will continue to dawdle northeast through central and eastern Ireland as well as Ulster and drop variable amounts of sleet, wet snow and cold rain, amounts will generally be 2-5 cms of snow or 2-5 mms of rain but there has been a heavier cluster embedded that could reactivate around Louth possibly. The rest of the country will likely stay overcast with brief breaks possible, and considerable fog or mist as snow continues to melt rather slowly. Western counties could see a few drizzly showers with snow possible over higher ground. Highs will be in the range of 1-3 C east and 3-5 C in the west although 5-7 C is possible in Kerry and nearby parts of Limerick and Cork, over to Waterford.
TONIGHT will continue rather cool and foggy with some patches of drizzle or freezing drizzle mixed with snow grains. Lows will be generally -3 to -1 C but could fall a bit lower if it clears up substantially (then really dense fog could develop later).
THURSDAY will be a milder day with a freshening southerly wind, a few spits of rain and variable amounts of cloud, highs near 8 C west to 4 C northeast.
FRIDAY is likely to become very mild with strong southerly winds developing. Periods of rain will move in rather gradually and become heavy late in the day. Highs will be 11-13 C at lower elevations, to 4-7 C higher up, and whatever snow is left will melt quickly. Rainfalls could reach 25-50 mms and winds SSE 35-55 mph. Severe flooding will have to be a concern given all these variables.
SATURDAY will stay very mild with the rain moving east and ending by mid-day west to east, temperatures staying in the 7-11 C range then falling off by evening. Winds will drop off to SW then NW 10-20 mph.
SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking colder but still near seasonal averages with highs of about 7-8 C and lows near freezing. There may be some sleety showers at times, as well as brief sunny intervals.
By about TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY, Russia may be sending another gift to the people of western Europe, and unfortunately, it's not free natural gas. This outbreak looks a bit subdued on the charts but it won't be far from freezing by day and possibly -5 C at night if this materializes. With east winds, there may be a return of at least some light snow. It has the look of a 2-3 day event likely to be followed by another surge of mild Atlantic weather. This fits with the general concept of a strong wind and rain event around the 26-27 January "northern max" lunar event and the 30 January full moon. If we don't happen to see an end to the renewed cold before those, count on some really wintry weather, but my money's on mild, windy weather then (so far). I should probably check with Joe, Ken and Nostradamus (and Danno for sure).
It continues to be unreasonably warm here, with a light rain at times, 12-13 C even at this time of the night (going on 9 p.m.) ... updates later.