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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)
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Sunday, 14 November, 2010
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TODAY ... lingering fog (freezing fog in some cases) this morning, slowly clearing in most areas to give some weak sunshine through layers of high cloud ... remaining chilly with highs only 5-8 C ... some sleety showers confined mostly to western Mayo and Galway, but possibly developing in a few other locations, and turning to snow over higher ground. Generally light winds so that, if the sun does break through, it may feel relatively pleasant on the sunny side of a building but freezing in the shade.
TONIGHT ... fog patches redeveloping, widespread frost and freezing fog possible, with lows -4 to +1 C. ... most of the sleety showers dying out but could continue near west and later south coasts.
MONDAY ... variable cloud, mostly dry once the fog lifts, but some outbreaks of light rain near the south coast, chilly with highs 5-8 C.
TUESDAY ... becoming windy and milder with periods of rain, potential for some gusts to 50 mph or stronger in Connacht (less risk elsewhere but there are some models taking the strong winds into the southeast and later into Leinster). Highs near 12 C.
WEDNESDAY ... strong winds dying out, with periods of rain continuing, becoming foggy and temperatures steady near 8 C.
THURSDAY ... some dry intervals with showers and widespread low cloud, highs near 7 C.
OUTLOOK ... From about Friday to Sunday, the weather is likely to be dominated by low pressure off to the south, bringing some intervals of rain especially to the southern half of the country, and generally chilly temperatures on E-NE winds. This tendency may intensify to even colder temperatures later next week as eventually some arctic cold air mixes into the circulation over northern Europe. Sooner or later the models have that look of wintry weather ahead.
Today here (Saturday 13th) was cloudy and drizzly with highs near 8 C. It remains very pleasant across the eastern U.S. with highs well up into the teens or near 20 C. Tropical activity continues to percolate in the Caribbean with another named storm possible next week.0 -
Monday, 15 November, 2010
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TODAY ... morning fog or freezing fog slowly dissipating, with a few widely scattered sleety showers that could leave some ice or snow on higher ground, but also some watery sunshine possible as temperatures struggle to recover to about 7-8 C in a light but chilly breeze.
TONIGHT ... more fog developing, not quite as cold but lows generally 2-5 C
... some rain on west coast at times, winds slowly increasing to SE 15 mph.
TUESDAY ... becoming rather windy and raw with periods of rain, SE winds about 20-40 mph, highs generally near 8 C but rising late in the day to about 11 C on west coast, where winds SSW 35-55 mph. Rainfalls generally 5-15 mms. Some risk of higher wind gusts in Connacht and Munster, we are monitoring new guidance as it appears.
WEDNESDAY ... cloudy with rain becoming showery, winds diminishing to SW 15-30 mph, highs near 8 C.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... cloudy, raw, winds backing more to southeast, highs around 6-7 C.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY ... cloudy, periods of rain, moderate east winds, raw and rather cold with highs 6-7 C.
OUTLOOK ... generally rather cold with possible sleet or snow at times as temperatures begin to fall even further during the week.
Today (Sunday 14th) here was cloudy, cool and damp with highs near 8 C. Some snow has fallen across Minnesota and nearby parts of other states but it remains warm and dry further east. Tropical activity still not too intense and a watch is on for development in the Caribbean about mid-week.
Watch for updates on the potential wind event on Tuesday, with a thread now started for in-depth discussions.0 -
Tuesday, 16 November, 2010
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TODAY ... dry with some morning sunshine in eastern counties, rain arriving there by mid-afternoon ... cloudy with rain spreading gradually into western counties this morning, becoming heavier this afternoon ... winds SE 20-40 mph by mid-day and rising to 35-55 mph western counties late afternoon ... rainfalls 7-15 mms, highs reaching 10-12 C.
TONIGHT ... an interval of strong winds west coast (S 45-65 mph) but elsewhere, winds peaking around 30-40 mph this evening then falling off somewhat, with rain continuing then tapering off to showers ... mild with lows only 7-9 C.
WEDNESDAY ... cloudy with showers or longer periods of rain, a further 10 mms likely, winds picking up again from SW at 30-50 mph west coast, but 20-40 mph elsewhere, highs near 9 C.
THURSDAY ... variable cloud, still a few showers, less windy, lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C.
FRIDAY ... cloudy west, sunny at times east, showers developing across western counties in a northeast flow, chilly ... lows near -1 C and highs about 7 C.
WEEKEND ... continuing cool and variable with some showers at times mainly western counties, winds NE 20-30 mph, highs near 7 C and light frosts.
NEXT WEEK ... possibly turning even colder later in the week with chance of snow in frosty conditions under moderate northeast to north winds.
Meanwhile, I have posted a winter outlook in the winter 2010-11 thread.
Today (Monday 15th) here was overcast and foggy at times with rain, and chilly highs near 7 C. This evening has turned quite windy with a strong front coming ashore, and the outlook here is for even colder weather soon.
Watch for updates on the approaching wind event, both here and in the storm thread -- this is still looking a bit less windy than last week but has potential for 80 mph gusts out to sea, and not that far from land.0 -
UPDATE _ Tuesday, 6:30 p.m.
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It's fortunate that the storm off the west coast has not tracked any closer to land because there are very likely some 80-100 mph wind gusts closer to the centre. At the moment, peak gusts of 58 knots (about 67 mph) at Valentia with widespread reports of strong winds in western Munster, from about the SSE. These will slowly veer to S by midnight without dropping in intensity very much if at all. Meanwhile, stronger winds than presently felt will move further north into Galway and Mayo, so expect some gusts to 65 or 70 mph there later this evening. The storm is steady state, and the frontal band will not make very rapid eastward progress.
I imagine the winds will pick up somewhat more in the southeast and east this evening but may peak at about 50-55 mph in gusts there, although around some hills you may find much lower or somewhat higher speeds depending on exposure.
Watching this carefully but I think the storm has probably reached its peak intensity now and will remain about this strong for 3-6 more hours before slowly filling. As mentioned in the forecasts, there will be a secondary wind peak later tomorrow as the storm will tend to loop around and have a second go at the west coast before finally falling into a state of disrepair north of Malin Head over the weekend. At that point, a more energetic southern branch low will be directing the circulation pattern around to a more easterly direction.0 -
Wednesday, 17 November, 2010
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TODAY ... mostly cloudy with showers becoming more persistent and turning to steady rain for some, winds briefly much lighter, then ramping up again to about 30-40 mph (nothing like yesterday though), possibly a few stronger gusts near the Clare and Kerry coasts, from a SW direction. Rather chilly by mid-day with temperatures levelling off around 7-8 C. Rainfalls 10-15 mms.
TONIGHT ... showers or longer periods of rain becoming more drizzly with fog becoming widespread, lows 5-7 C in a moderate SW wind.
THURSDAY ... showers continuing, moderate SW winds, highs near 9 C.
FRIDAY ... partly cloudy for most, some showers continuing in Connacht mostly, and winds backing to south. Lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.
SATURDAY ... cloudy, periods of rain heavier in western counties, winds backing further to SE, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.
SUNDAY ... cloudy, raw, some sunny intervals developing with a few widely scattered sleety or wintry showers, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.
OUTLOOK ... colder in general next week, possibly cold enough for snow and sharp frosts at times in a generally NE to N wind flow.
Today (Tues 16th) here was bright but rather chilly in a strong westerly wind at times, highs near 9 C. Rain moved in after sunset and will probably continue at low elevations with snow expected above 300-400m during the next two days ... much colder air is now spreading across northern and central B.C. and most of western Canada into the northern plains states. The trend is staying mild on the east coast despite a weak cold front moving through there at the present time, and highs of 20 C are likely at times in the next week or so in DC and even NYC. The weak tropical activity seems to have almost died out but could regenerate.0 -
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UPDATE _ Wednesday, 9:30 p.m.
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Heavy and possibly thundery rain likely this evening around Limerick, local flooding may develop or intensify in parts of counties around Limerick and Lough Derg including east Clare, parts of Offaly, Tipps and Cork. May update this if the risk appears to be spreading further northeast.0 -
doesnt look good guys!0
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The name says it all, tony.
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Thursday, 18 November, 2010
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TODAY ... widespread showers continuing, some of them thundery but the general trend is taking the heavier activity northeast towards Ulster, so rainfalls today likely to vary from 5 mms southwest to 25 mms northeast, about 15 mms in the other corners of the country ... winds are also turning more to the west and will be rather gusty at 20-35 mph ... highs today will average 10 C ... a few brief sunny intervals may develop especially for western counties.
TONIGHT ... a few more showers although gradual improvements in a less windy SW to W flow, clearing at times towards morning, lows 5-7 C.
FRIDAY ... variable cloud, just a few showers in a rather light southerly flow with peak winds 10-20 mph ... cool with highs near 10 C.
SATURDAY ... periods of rain, heavier in south and later in west, 10-20 mms for most, winds SE 15-30 mph, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.
SUNDAY ... cloudy with showers, rather sleety in north, chilly with winds E to NE 20-30 mph, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.
OUTLOOK ... cold and breezy for much of next week with temperatures well below normal, frosts overnight with lows around -3 C, chilly days but with some sunshine, some scattered wintry showers, winds NE 20-30 mph and highs about 4-6 C. At least it doesn't look as wet although not bone dry either, so a very gradual drying trend for waterlogged fields and high stream levels.
Meanwhile, today here (Wed 17th) was wet and windy to start, then partly sunny with diminishing S-SW winds. Much colder air has moved into the region but so far it has stayed above freezing here with a high about 7 C earlier, now about 2 C. In Alberta it was -15 C with the earlier snow blowing around in a fairly brisk northeast wind.0 -
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Friday, 19 November, 2010
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TODAY ... While the east and north may enjoy some sunshine for a while, cloud and scattered showers will invade the west and south. Amounts will be around 5-10 mms. Highs today should reach 10 C and winds are likely to be less of an issue for most, south 10-20 mph although backing more to the southeast as the rain moves in. Some fog will develop on higher ground during this rainfall.
TONIGHT ... periods of rain for most, although parts of Ulster could remain dry, and winds SE 10-20 mph, lows 4-7 C, and rainfalls of 10-15 mms.
SATURDAY ... cloudy with rain becoming rather heavy at times especially for the south, central and western counties, where 15-25 mms possible ... winds SE backing to E, 15-25 mph, raw and chilly as a result ... highs 8-10 C.
SUNDAY ... overnight early morning showers clearing for most, with a slight frost developing well inland, then variable cloud, a few wintry mixed showers possible over higher ground, winds E-NE 15-30 mph, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.
MONDAY ... continuing cold and breezy, NE 15-30 mph, mixed wintry showers possibly heavy near the east coast and snow quite likely over high ground, with lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... somewhat less breezy as winds turn more northerly, and higher pressure develops ... sharp frosts with lows to -4 C and highs only reaching 4-6 C, some chance of freezing fog lingering in central valleys ... if the models are right, the weather forum will be going into meltdown because ...
THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... an even colder period is possible, with considerable model agreement already on a wintry northeast flow redeveloping and snow or sleet spreading across many parts of Ireland and the U.K., temperatures well below normal and possibly staying below 2 C all day, and also possibly some snow accumulating and causing travel disruptions. All this is not quite "carved in stone" yet but certainly seems like the most probable outcome as much higher pressure forms well to the north and strong low pressure drifts west from around Poland to around the North Sea and then across England.
:eek::D:eek::D:eek::D:eek:
And to add to the general festivities, snow is also falling here now, as temperatures have been dropping all day (Thursday here), with a cold rain and only 2-3 C mid-afternoon, now +1 C and wet snow with east winds ... further inland across all of western Canada it has turned very cold indeed, with 10-20 cms of snow in many parts, and temperatures down into the -15 to -25 C range. Meanwhile, the east coast of the U.S. remains on the mild side of the jet stream which is raging across the central plains and then heading up west of Greenland into the high arctic. This is leaving Europe cut off from the normal west to east flow, and the current low to the south really has nowhere to go, while colder air over Russia can easily move west now.
I'm expecting some significant snow here over the next few days and sub-freezing temperatures out to the coast by Saturday.0 -
Thanks MT, once again giving many of us something to look forward to with your wonderful words of wintry wonders:D:D0
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Saturday, 20 November, 2010
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TODAY ... mostly cloudy, periods of rain heavier south and later west, and some parts of Ulster remaining dry, with amounts elsewhere 5-15 mms ... winds ESE 15-30 mph, rather raw and chilly with highs 8-10 C.
TONIGHT ... gradual clearing, rain dying out over south and west to leave low cloud and fog, some patchy freezing fog and frost developing, winds E 10-15 mph, and lows -2 to +3 C for most (+5 C some sheltered coastal locations).
SUNDAY ... variable cloud with longer intervals of sunshine developing especially for western counties, some sleety showers near the east coast and spreading inland at times, highs near 7 C.
MONDAY ... partly cloudy, cold, isolated sleety showers or snow flurries near the east coast (snow more likely above 300m asl) ... lows near -3 C inland to +2 C urban and coastal, highs 5-7 C ... some patchy morning fog that may be slow to clear.
TUESDAY ... similar to Monday except for longer sunny intervals and less widespread showery precip in east. Same general temperature range.
WEDNESDAY ... dry and cold for most, sharp to severe frost, lows -6 to -2 C and highs only 4-7 C ... sunshine fairly widespread once the morning fog or low cloud breaks up, light northerly winds.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... we are monitoring this period for a possible wintry mix of snow, sleet, hail and rain in northeast winds associated with low pressure expected to move southwest from near Denmark to southern England. This could bring Ireland some locally heavy wet snowfalls especially well inland and on higher terrain. Temperatures could be as low as 2-4 C by day and -2 C at night. Winds may be fairly strong, NE 20-40 mph. This situation may change as the models get a better handle on the situation.
Beyond that, the cold may dig in for several more days and the various long-range model depictions of milder air moving back in have to be taken with caution as this may just begin to move back further as time goes on.
Meanwhile, snow is falling here after a cold, mostly dry day on Friday. The high was only 3 C and now it's about -1 C with an east wind picking up. It remains bitterly cold further inland across western Canada. But on the east coast, predicting highs close to 15 C in NYC and 20 C in DC on Saturday.
If you want to follow the progress of the cold spell, check out the threads on winter weather topics. I'm pretty sure I won't be around from 0800 to 1600 to update here (sleep deprivation must be addressed). :cool:0 -
Sunday, 21 November, 2010
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Full moon occurs today at 1727h GMT.
TODAY ... Most places will remain dry with partly cloudy skies and a brisk northeast wind at 20-30 mph. However, coastal portions of Leinster and some distance inland, expect passing showers of rain, hail and on higher ground snow, with some risk of thunder. Local 5-10 mms amounts possible. Highs 7-9 C but feeling colder in the wind.
TONIGHT ... variable cloud, scattered frost developing with fog patches well inland, as winds drop off to NE 10 mph away from the coast. The east coast shower bands may continue to some extent. Lows inland and west dropping to about -3 to +1 C, south coast around 2 C and east coast around 3-4 C.
MONDAY, TUESDAY ... both days partly to mostly cloudy, better spells of sunshine far west and northwest, extensive showers developing especially for eastern half of Ireland and most of Ulster, with some of these changing to hail, and/or snow on hills, with some thunder possible. Winds generally NE 15 to 30 mph, sometimes gusting to 40 mph around heavier showers. Highs both days around 7 C and morning lows by Tuesday -3 to +2 C.
WEDNESDAY ... somewhat less showery with longer sunny intervals, cold, sharp frosts in the morning with lows -5 to -2 C, chilly afternoon highs of 4 to 7 C. Winds NNE 15-30 mph. Some of the sea effect mixed showers may now begin to affect Ulster and Connacht more than Leinster.
THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... although details vary from model to model, the risk is certainly growing that this will produce intervals of snow and very cold temperatures on moderate NE winds ... temperatures are likely to be in the range of -3 at night to +5 C by day, and possibly a bit colder for some places, and snow may become fairly widespread and also encountered closer to sea level. There is even some risk of a heavy snowfall for some eastern counties during this period.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... cold seems set to dig in and there may be more outbreaks of snow or sleet (nothing better than very cold sleety rain) as lows develop off to the south and increase the wind gradient at times, but generally the winds will stay in the north to northeast.
Meanwhile, we already have the cold and snow here, it arrived late Friday and we woke up to 5-7 cms on the ground Saturday morning, with partly cloudy skies and east winds, highs near 2 C later in the day, and not much reduction in the snow cover (although the grassy surfaces are not frozen yet so there is some melting, and the streets and pavements are generally clear now). We're expecting even colder temperatures as an arctic high edges closer to us in central B.C. and this is causing -20 to -30 C temperatures further inland. However, the eastern half of the U.S. is staying milder with the storm track running from about Nevada to Michigan and then on towards Newfoundland. South of that, temperatures are managing to reach 15-18 C or even higher.
As always, get your latest updates throughout the day from the winter weather threads that are busy now (and will become hectic, I'm sure, as we get closer to the core of the cold spell).0 -
Monday, 22 November, 2010
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TODAY ... cold and at least partly cloudy in most regions, but showery in the east and near the north as well as northwest coasts. These showers will mix with hail and (above 300m) snow at times, and there could be a few instances of thunder. ... Winds moderate NE at about 15-30 mph, but more northerly in Connacht. Highs generally 7-9 C.
TONIGHT ... cloudy with some clear intervals, fog and frost developing inland, lows generally -3 to +1 C. ... a few of the coastal showers will continue at times, and snow levels may drop lower down too.
TUESDAY ... not much change from today with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, cold north to northeast winds, and coastal showers in the east, north and northwest, with some mixing to produce hail or snow in a few spots. Highs 6-8 C.
WEDNESDAY ... a sharp frost to start with lows of -6 to -3 C and not far from freezing even in large cities and near coasts ... fog may be widespread and slow to clear inland ... some sunshine may develop for a while, then cloudy with a mixture of sleet and snow breaking out, rather light falls expected, but road conditions may become poor as a result ... winds picking up again from the NNE at about 15-30 mph ... highs near 5 C.
THURSDAY to MONDAY should be a very interesting, wintry period with very cold air pushing into Ireland on moderate NE winds ... even in the daytime, temperatures will be hard pressed to reach 2-3 C and will fall readily to about -4 C at night ... widespread snow showers are likely with just some mixing to sleet or rain very close to sea level and due to the warmer sea temperatures ... accumulations of snow are likely, it's probably too early to speculate but at this point I would say 2-5 cms might be the sort of range at times.
This cold outbreak is not likely to come and go without a fight, and the models are suggesting a slow and rather gradual breakdown to milder conditions, if indeed they return in any strength by about 2-4 December. The patterns look rather devoid of strong warming events even when the cold fades out, so it may be a case of returning to the current sort of modified cold range of temperatures.
We're in the midst of a very cold outbreak here with the current temperature (at 9:30 pm Sunday our time) about -4 C and heading down under clear skies. Further inland of course it's more like -20 to -30 C in places. The east coast of the U.S., on the other hand, is enjoying quite mild weather with the storm track between here and there, across the plains states and Great Lakes region.
Check the winter weather threads for all the latest twists and turns on the road to winter.0 -
Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
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TODAY ... partly cloudy and cold, with coastal showers at times in Leinster and Ulster, later in Connacht ... these showers likely to contain some hail and higher elevation snow ... but many inland and south coast areas remaining dry ... highs 7-8 C in NNE winds of 15-25 mph.
TONIGHT ... clearing in some regions, and colder with lows -4 to -1 C, widespread mist or fog, some freezing fog patches, showers becoming lighter and mixing with snow in a few places.
WEDNESDAY ... windy and cold with some sunshine inland, mixed sleet or hail with snow showers heavier near east coast and in parts of Ulster and northwest Connacht. Highs only 3-6 C in strong NNE winds 20-40 mph.
THURSDAY ... cloudy with strong northerly winds, mixed wintry showers with rain, sleet and snow, some hail, highs 3-5 C east to 5-8 C west as a weak warm sector develops in the northerly flow. Winds NNW 20-40 mph.
FRIDAY ... windy and turning even colder, with sleet or hail showers turning to snow over parts of Ulster and Leinster, lows near -4 C inland, -1 C east coast, then highs only 3-6 C, feeling much colder as winds gust to 40 mph.
WEEKEND ... windy and very cold with outbreaks of snow likely, amounts likely to be generally 3-7 cms but potentially heavier in some eastern counties, as winds will be NE 20-40 mph. Lows near -3 C and highs near 2 C.
OUTLOOK ... continuing windy and cold with further snow, and if any warming does develop, it may be slight and bring further mixed wintry precip, towards the period 2-4 December.
Meanwhile, today here was very windy and cold, the high Monday was only -3 C and snow fell further west and south although not here. This cold spell should last a few more days, and extends east to about northern Ontario. But on Monday in NYC it was 18 C and predicting 20 C for today.
Would suggest checking the winter weather thread for updates on the imminent wintry blasts.0 -
thanks MT.
Never seen Met Eireann say this before: "This arctic spell is forecast to last through to the coming weekend and our 10-day model gives no indication of any mild weather before the second of December."
:rolleyes:0 -
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M.T. Cranium wrote: »Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
......imminent wintry blasts.
Thanks as always MT. Whatever about the weather, you also have a great turn of phrase! Love that one.
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Wednesday, 24 November, 2010
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TODAY ... showers mixing with sleet and snow on higher ground this morning in southern counties, followed by partly cloudy conditions, cold with NNE winds of 15-30 mph ... further wintry showers developing by late morning to early afternoon in Ulster and Connacht, spreading further south by afternoon and evening ... snow mostly on hills but may be seen briefly lower down too ... highs 4-7 C.
TONIGHT ... windy and raw with mixed wintry showers, winds N 20-35 mph in exposed areas, dropping off somewhat inland, frosty in a few spots but lows generally -2 to +2 C.
THURSDAY ... frequent showers with more of a wintry mix eastern half of the country, as highs reach 7-9 C west but only 3-5 C east, in a strong northerly flow (NNW 20-40 mph west coast, NNE 15-30 mph east coast). Snow may accumulate on hills in Ulster and later in parts of Leinster.
FRIDAY ... variable cloud, cold, northerly winds 20-30 mph, scattered wintry showers with snow accumulations on higher ground. Lows near -3 C and highs near 4 C.
WEEKEND ... continued very cold with scattered outbreaks of sleety showers mixing readily with snow especially inland and above 100m a.s.l., winds backing more to NE allowing spread of some mixed sea effect showers into the Dublin and Wicklow regions, heavy snow likely on hills there ... lows of about -4 C and highs near 4 C (some inland areas 2 C).
OUTLOOK ... windy (from the east) and very cold with outbreaks of snow, possibly becoming heavy in some parts, around late Monday and Tuesday ... the cold remaining firmly in place and some risk of a mixed wintry event later in the week when milder air tries to move back in from the southwest. Temperatures remaining about 5 degrees below normal.
Forecasts for this coming weekend seem a bit unstable with changes in the model runs and I may update the outlook later today ... but watch the discussion thread for all the latest thoughts of forum stalwarts.
Today (Tuesday 23rd) here was a sunny and record cold day with a high only -4 C and currently back down to -10 C under mostly clear skies. We're expecting our own version of a snowy breakdown late Wednesday night into Thursday here. A storm is brewing over Wyoming and South Dakota, keeping the weather very mild further south but spreading snow towards the Great Lakes.0 -
Thank you for that news, Mr Cranium. I have upmost respect for you and I'm sure things will turn out in a similar was as forecast by you. I'm just under 100m ASL with a 150m hill to my immediate north east and I'm about 40km away from the Irish Sea, on the Meath/Kildare border.....I'm borderline but hopeful that I see something good over the next week 0
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Thursday, 25 November, 2010
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TODAY ... dry and cold for most, although Donegal and much of Connacht will be showery with rain at low elevations, hail or snow on hills ... there could also be some passing flurries in Ulster and inland Leinster, with rain showers near the Wicklow coast turning to hail at times. Despite those areas of unsettled weather, most places will just stay dry and bright. By afternoon and evening, some milder air will make a slight foray into the west as winds turn more NW'ly there, but it will remain cold in the eastern two-thirds of the country. This will result in highs of about 7-10 C in the far west, 5-7 C in the north-south central band of counties and 4-6 C east. Winds NNW 20-35 mph in western counties, not as strong elsewhere (N 15-20 mph).
TONIGHT ... clearing again, very cold, just a few widely scattered flurries until a more organized band of sleet and snow arrives in the north towards morning. Lows generally -5 to -2 C ... western counties a bit milder and only clearing towards midnight.
FRIDAY ... cloudy with some sunny intervals, very cold, scattered flurries or outbreaks of snow (hail in some parts), highs only 2-4 C north, 4-6 C south. Winds NNE 15-30 mph. Some covering of snow on hills and higher terrain in central counties.
SATURDAY ... variable cloud, very cold, morning lows -6 to -3 C, outbreaks of snow (rain or hail near coasts), highs only 2-5 C, winds NE 10-20 mph but possibly stronger at times in Ulster.
SUNDAY ... cloudy with outbreaks of snow, very cold, a few centimetres of snow may develop in some regions especially Leinster, Ulster, higher parts of Connacht, as well as hilly parts of Cork and Kerry. Winds ENE 15-30 mph adding chill to temperature range from lows near -5 C to highs near 2 C.
MONDAY-TUESDAY ... risk of more snow as it remains very cold with brisk east winds at times, lows around -5 C and highs near 2 C.
The breakdown to milder weather appears very slow to develop and when it does come, may involve just a slightly milder flow from a northwesterly source south of Iceland.
Today (Wed 24th) at my location was cloudy and very cold with a few snowflakes, but very dry regardless with a high near -2 C. Expecting 10-15 cms of snow to start falling soon, lasting all day before somewhat milder air moves in. Another storm has formed in South Dakota and is moving towards Lake Superior, spreading 10-15 cms of snow into parts of North Dakota and Manitoba. While it was a bit cooler on the east coast on Wednesday, today should see warming again back to 15-17 C.
Join the weather forum crew for full updates on the developing wintry weather pattern, in the current forecast thread, and get updates on actual snow and hail reports on the dedicated threads.0 -
Just as a point of information,we've had a snow shower here this morning already and snow flurries at Arklow co wicklow right on the coast at sea level.M.T. Cranium wrote: »Thursday, 25 November, 2010
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TODAY ... dry and cold for most, although Donegal and much of Connacht will be showery with rain at low elevations, hail or snow on hills ... there could also be some passing flurries in Ulster and inland Leinster, with rain showers near the Wicklow coast turning to hail at times.
Air temp at my station exactly 2 miles inland of there is currently +0.7c with a dp of -2.2c with a breeze directly in off the sea.
So conditions are actually on the colder side of marginal at the moment even on the coast in the East and on the colder side of what the models suggest.
This may change of course during the day if the air temp rises to say +4c and the dp chases that above zero.0 -
UPDATE _ Thursday, 7:30 p.m.
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Have just posted this in the forecast discussion thread ...
There is good model consensus now on a snowfall event for Tuesday, with all four (or five) of the major models showing a storm tracking northeast from near northwest Spain Monday night to some position in northern France. The GFS is most aggressive in bringing this storm north into southeast England and the North Sea. The GEM model has almost the same evolution but not quite as far north and seems the strongest of all in terms of snowfall potential for Ireland. The UKMO and ECM models are more prone to stalling the low in France as they maintain the signal of blocking high pressure to the north. With that evolution, snowfall depends mainly on the strength of the easterly flow across Britain and Ireland.
Obviously too early to be definitive, but snowfalls in the 10-15 cm range would be plausible with any of these models or the model consensus at this stage, with the heaviest falls inland eastern and southern counties.
I continue to think Friday and the weekend will bring scattered outbreaks of 3-5 cms of snow, with the north favoured more than other parts of the country at first, but then later the east and central counties well exposed to incoming snow streamers from the Irish Sea. Winds will tend to veer from NNE towards ENE during the period which should be the main reason for a shift further south in the heavier accumulating snowfall bands.
I also think that snow streamers on the weekend will have vigorous convection due to the extreme difference in air mass temperature and sea temperature (still reported at 12 C at the M2 buoy). Air mass temperatures streaming off the U.K. land mass will be something like -1/-5 for temp dp values. This air will warm rapidly to about 5/2 near the surface but the profile above 200m will only be slightly modified. This will lead to vigorous convection and our many weather watchers in Meath, Dublin and Wicklow as well as some neighbouring counties will no doubt be reporting heavy falls of snow, hail and snow pellets as well as possibly a bit of rain at times, and lightning seems quite likely with this (especially later Saturday and Sunday).
I seem to be going backwards here because now I'm talking about almost a nowcast. As picked up in our forecast, there is a weak warm sector being pulled into the northerly circulation from the near Atlantic and this is temporarily raising temperatures especially in the west. This is a response to the developing wave dropping southwest from Norway, and this warm sector should be pushed off the south coast late tonight, so expect the current rain showers to start mixing more with sleet, hail and snow as the night goes on, but also, more to the east where the warming is less noticeable. A fairly strong cold front will develop tonight around the Hebrides and sweep south across Ulster during the morning. This should mark the onset of the coldest weather and the more organized bands of accumulating snow.
Meanwhile, snowing here at Cranium Central and about 4 cms on the ground now, temp -1 C, roads greasy and forecast 5-10 cms additional before turning to freezing rain then rain on Friday. As you may know, today is Thanksgiving in the U.S. but we had ours in Canada in October. Across the U.S. today, it's cold in the west and northern plains, very mild in the Ohio valley, and turning warmer as the day progresses on the east coast. For example, it was about 21 C in Charleston WV but only 9 C at DCA at 1 p.m. local time, but that warmer air is going to arrive on the east coast tonight local time. A strong cold front is going through Michigan and Indiana at present and snow squalls are likely Friday off Lake Huron, Lake Erie and later Lake Ontario. But it will stay quite mild to late afternoon in NYC and BOS on Friday and none of that snow is likely to hit them.0 -
Does the snow at "Cranium Central" generate a similar excitement on local forums? if so can you provide a link so we can compare the enthusiasm.0
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This guy "Cranium" is the dogs!
For a novice like me, the detail is outstanding!
Cheers & keep it up.0 -
It's a little different here in terms of weather forums, we have a television network called the Weather Network which is like the U.S. Weather Channel although I believe more successful in terms of developing an audience for weather. I'm not associated with it, so this is not to be construed as a plug, but you could find them and all relevant commentary at
http://theweathernetwork.com
They are on facebook and get a lot of viewer comments on there, for example I was reading them during the rampage of Hurricane Igor at the other end of our country in September. I haven't looked today, Vancouver tends to loathe snowfall because so many people have moved here to escape winter weather, and we have a large immigrant population who have no winter driving experience (at least each year we break in new talent).
Being surrounded by mountains the winter environment is easily available to those who like it, so many of us tend to prefer that the snow would stay in the alpine and out of the city. I like seeing it, but this is not like most North American cities that are geared up to handle snowfalls. When we had a lot of snow in Dec 2008, it was chaotic around here with the side streets in particular not getting plowed, but still being used (single lane) by cars.
I think this U.K. and Ireland interest in possible snow would probably be taken as amusing in most parts of North America, for the same reason that here it is more or less inevitable and we don't have these iffy situations so much, the weather pretty much makes up its mind and does whatever, so you wouldn't get a four-day discussion going about will it snow, won't it snow, at least not as much ... now anyway, I don't think there is a large Canadian weather forum besides the reference I linked, but Canadians join the large U.S. weather forums like Americanwx.com which has recently replaced Eastern U.S. weather forum due to some sort of internal revolt there. You might want to look in at that forum
http://americanwx.com
some time in December when there is talk of a big east coast snowstorm, then you see pretty similar discussions, but with a lot more professionals in the mix -- I think there are a few here too lurking under cover, but on the American forum, you get tagged meteorologists involved with "weather geeks" or whatever name you prefer on a pretty informal basis, and it's quite a lively discussion before major storms. Right now the American forum is rather quiet and just biding their time. One thing to note there, if you just look in, you can't see posted graphics, you have to be a member.
I guess I should look into starting a Canadian weather forum for Canadians, but I'll leave that to someone who plans to retire here (I hope to be well south of here in a few years as I've had a lifetime of winter and would now like to improve my summer totals). :cool:0 -
M.T. Cranium wrote: »I guess I should look into starting a Canadian weather forum for Canadians, but I'll leave that to someone who plans to retire here (I hope to be well south of here in a few years as I've had a lifetime of winter and would now like to improve my summer totals). :cool:
MT you would be more than welcome over here but i dont think it would improve your summer totals(as you well know):D0 -
Thanks, I hope I do get the chance to visit Ireland again. Might happen next year, don't know yet.0
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Vancouver today from my girlfriend's apartment.
Hopefully Dublin will look like this soon!!0 -
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Friday, 26 November, 2010
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Alert issued for widespread severe frosts and localized heavy snowfalls over the next five to seven days.
TODAY ... variable cloud with some sunny breaks, cold and windy at times (stronger winds west coast where N 25-40 mph) ... morning showers in the southwest, mixing with sleet or snow on higher ground, moving off the south coast soon ... patchy mixed wintry showers developing mainly over eastern Ulster and spreading to most other counties through the day, some giving accumulations of snow (2-4 cms) but these mostly on higher ground at first, with sleety rain or hail lower down. More snow in the mix by this evening ... highs today only 3-6 C, and quite chilly after snow begins to fall.
TONIGHT ... periods of snow or sleet becoming fairly widespread, then some clear intervals with a sharp frost developing, fog patches and icy roads ... lows dropping to -4 C inland, -1 C east and south coasts.
SATURDAY ... variable cloud with some sunny intervals mainly south, west ... snow showers becoming widespread but heavier accumulations more likely inland northern counties, and on higher ground in east, also southwest and parts of Connacht ... winds generally NE 15-25 mph ... very cold for late November with highs only 1-3 C inland, 2-5 C near coasts.
SUNDAY ... mostly cloudy with outbreaks of heavier snow possible, after a very cold night with morning lows around -5 C, daytime highs only reaching about 0-3 C with some accumulations of snow especially in Leinster, 2-5 cms possible in places ... winds ESE 10-20 mph except northerly at times in western counties. There is some chance of heavier snow developing in some areas and giving 5-10 cms in a few spots.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY ... continuing very cold with the risk of a heavy snowfall event concentrated on Leinster and parts of the south, possibly well around towards Kerry and Limerick, as a strong storm continues to be featured on models -- if this comes to pass, strong E-NE winds would develop while Ireland remains in the very cold air mass, and this could lead to widespread outbreaks of heavy snow inland and a sleety mix near some coasts. Temperatures appear to be stuck in the range of -5 to +2 C in this period.
OUTLOOK ... I am skeptical about rapid warming or breakdowns of this cold pattern but there would be an increasing chance of milder weather by perhaps the 5th or 6th, however, another plausible scenario is for the cold to lock in and force yet another storm around to the south so that the wintry spell might continue for quite some time.
Meanwhile, here we have had about 5 cms of snow on Thursday (25th) which has since turned to rain -- it is melting the snow gradually but conditions are rather slippery and the temperature has risen to +2 C. Mild air covers the east coast of the U.S., while snow squalls are developing in Michigan and will appear further east later today.0
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