Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 24-11-2009 8:11am

Tuesday, 24 November, 2009
_____________________________

TODAY will start out cloudy but only the north will see much rain at first, as a band of heavier rain is developing off to the west and will move in gradually around mid-day in the west, then will reach other parts of Ireland by afternoon. Winds will be picking up from the SSW at 30-50 mph and rainfalls will eventually produce 10-25 mms more. Highs today will be fairly mild at about 14 C in the south, 12 C in the north.

TONIGHT will become windier especially in Connacht where gusts to 70 mph are possible. Elsewhere, winds will peak at around 50-55 mph, so it won't be particularly damaging, while the places likely to see stronger winds are perhaps more used to them too. Squally showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will accompany these strong winds and temperatures will remain in the 8-10 C range. Winds will veer from SSW to W during the night.

WEDNESDAY will continue cloudy with a few breaks, frequent showers some with hail or thunder, and strong SW to W winds at times (30-55 mph), with temperatures falling off gradually to about 7 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be breezy, cool and showery, with mixed wintry showers possible over higher ground especially in the north and west. Highs each day will be near 8 C and lows around 1-3 C.

SATURDAY looks rather chilly and wet with either a cold rain, or a sleety mixture, perhaps snow over higher ground at times. Highs will be only about 6 or 7 C.

SUNDAY will remain rather chilly with further mixed showers, and highs of about 7 C.

NEXT WEEK should see a gradual return to milder weather with some rain.

Monday in my part of the world was cloudy with periods of rain and fairly light winds, highs near 7 C.

Watch for updates, too bad the rain and wind won't be going on strike (for a while).

M.T. Cranium · 24-11-2009 6:19pm

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 1715h
_____________________

The band of light to moderate rain continues to move eastward rather slowly but should move past Dublin by about 9 p.m., then most of Ireland will be in a dry slot with moderate westerly winds of 20-40 mph for a few hours, followed by the stronger winds developing around deep low pressure now located near 57N 17W and extending a deep trough southward. This will rotate around and catch Donegal and Mayo, as well as adjacent parts of other counties in the northwest, with the full force of its 50-70 mph winds later tonight. Those counties will continue to see very strong winds veering SW to W through the morning.

Elsewhere, it's a case of somewhat more moderate but still blustery westerly winds developing late tonight; the south coast is in a slacker gradient and may only see 30-45 mph wind speeds, so judge your most likely wind speeds by this north to south contrast. Also, places well inland and sheltered from a westerly gale may not see very strong winds either.

The rest of the forecast remains about the same, but I am noticing a tendency for clusters of heavier showers to develop for the southwest at times, although the flow is turning more northwesterly, it seems that the frontal zone will not be pushed that far south and so at times various troughs will be energized to produce 5-10 mms of rain in a six-hour period as we move through this colder spell of weather. And it still looks a bit sleety for the weekend as weak disturbances form over Biscay and move towards the south of England, placing Ireland in a bit of a northeast flow -- not cold enough for any real snow, except maybe above 2,000 feet on some southern mountain peaks. Also, precipitation amounts may only be in the range of 0.1 to 0.3 inches which would not give much potential for snowfall in any case (1-3 inches of snow probably half of which would be sleet or slush, and all well up above most of the populated areas).

The period 2-5 December is beginning to look interesting, this is a high-energy period for storm development and now the jet stream and first signs of low pressure on the computer models are all in the vicinity of Ireland. Something to watch as this could intensify on later runs.

Cloudy and spitting rain here (the weather has basically not changed here for about four days, can't remember last time I saw the sun).

M.T. Cranium · 25-11-2009 7:13am

Wednesday, 25 November, 2009
________________________________

TODAY will be quite a stormy day in many parts of Ireland, but the strongest winds will occur this morning in Connacht and exposed parts of Ulster, where gusts to 80 mph are likely. Further south, gusts to about 65 mph are probable in more exposed areas, and where squally showers happen to bring brief bursts of stronger winds. For your local weather, much will depend on whether you happen to be in the path of one of these heavier squalls of rain, hail and mountain snow, because some of them may be quite fierce especially around Galway where a convergence zone is setting up, and also near the south coast where another strong band is developing. Some sunshine may be recorded between squalls, and in most areas, the wind will ease a little after noon, although some gusts to 55 mph will continue. Highs will be about 8 C but temperatures could drop sharply in some of these squalls.

Rainfall amounts as such will not average very much more than 3-5 mms but it is possible that one or two places will get a stronger downpour of 10-20 mms.

TONIGHT will continue rather windy and cold with mixed showers of hail and sleet, and it's possible that some snow will accumulate on higher ground at times. Lows will be only 2-4 C and winds westerly 25-45 mph with higher gusts in Connacht at times.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue rather unsettled and quite windy with more mixed showers or periods of sleety rain, sometimes getting rather heavy in the southwest in particular. Highs each day will be 7-10 C and lows close to the freezing point; if the wind drops off in any inland locations there could be a sharp frost for some places. Winds will continue WNW 20-40 mph with higher gusts, adding a chill.

THE WEEKEND looks unsettled with periods of rain, rather cold and sleety at times with snow possible again on higher slopes. It won't be necessarily too windy but there could be an interval with gusty northerly winds as one of the lows passes on Sunday. Highs on the weekend will only be around 6 or 7 C, and overnight lows -1 to +2 C.

NEXT WEEK is looking milder again with (you guessed it) more rain.

And my weather is also mild with (you guessed it) more rain.

Watch for updates -- the strongest winds are likely around 0900h in Connacht and probably then to mid-day in most areas further east as well.

Storm force winds are affecting all offshore waters but it's particularly bad off Donegal and Mayo where force 11-12 winds are likely at times.

maquiladora · 25-11-2009 11:30am

Thanks M.T. I've noticed on a couple of models there's seems to be hints of another storm late next week. Euro at 240 hours.... :eek:

M.T. Cranium · 25-11-2009 7:34pm

UPDATE _ Wednesday 6:30 p.m.
________________________

Expect some heavier showers this evening in the southeast from Waterford around to about Wicklow. These could give about 10 mms of rain but further north, it's mainly the western half of the country likely to see much shower activity overnight, and this fairly subdued (2-5 mms).

It's quite wet here today with a steady downpour all morning so far, milder at about 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-11-2009 10:42pm

UPDATE _ Wed 9:45 p.m.
____________________

Currently the most active showers are in east central Ireland closing in on Dublin, so expect perhaps 5-10 mms of rain in that region tonight, and perhaps there will be a touch of snow on the summits by morning.

It continues to pour with rain here.

Redsunset · 26-11-2009 6:21am

My take on the weekend at the moment is that it will feel rather cold.duh i hear you say!!:pac:

Showery rain but increasingly turning to wintry mix and yes definately some snow showers possible especially over higher ground in northern half of country but not confined as we head into sunday evening,monday morning as colder 850 temps flow over the country for a brief spell before we see a return to the muck.

well thats my 2 cents for the day.:D

M.T. Cranium · 26-11-2009 7:19am

Thursday, 26 November, 2009
_______________________________

TODAY will be blustery and rather cold with frequent showers (especially in western and central counties), some sunny intervals, and a mixture of rain, hail and possibly snow (mostly on higher ground) with some thunder possible in the squally showers. Winds will be W 20-40 mph and rather gusty around some of these showers. Highs will average 8-10 C.

TONIGHT will continue much the same, partly cloudy with more showers of a rather mixed variety, more frequent in the south and west. Lows will be around 3 to 5 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with brief sunny intervals, and showers merging for a time into periods of light rain, rather sleety above 300m and turning to wet snow at times on higher hills. Highs of about 7 to 9 C will feel colder due to the strong NW breeze.

SATURDAY will probably bring some cold rain at times with light to moderate northeast to north winds developing. This rain could become sleety and mix with snow at higher elevations. Highs will only reach 6 to 8 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY, as the crew have been suggesting, are looking somewhat promising for a bit of snow to fall at times, at least in the north and higher parts of central and southern counties. The temperatures will just be in that marginal range of about 4-6 C where snow could start falling, although precipitation in general does not look too heavy, and the most likely outcome is some light slushy accumulations in the early morning hours, with rain more likely at mid-day. We'll have to keep an eye on how this develops. Winds would be light to moderate NE to N backing at times to NW.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY is likely to be a milder period with rain at times, and the risk of another strong wind event developing later in the week (from the SSW) as the storm track is likely to be near Ireland and running from south to north. However, we must caution that much colder air will be trying to escape from the Greenland area and could come charging south behind any given storm in the next week to ten days, especially (I think) after the 5th of December.

It has continued to rain pretty well all day long here on Wednesday and yes we are getting rather tired of it, but I know one place that won't be wanting to take it away. :cool:

Drummer Mummer · 26-11-2009 12:49pm

Here in the North East clear skies and lovely sunshine, light winds but cool. Lovely day!

Joe Public · 26-11-2009 3:09pm

Drummer Mummer wrote: »

Here in the North East clear skies and lovely sunshine, light winds but cool. Lovely day!

That's nice but you should really post this in the current weather conditions thread.

Drummer Mummer · 26-11-2009 3:14pm

Sorry about that. As you can see I am new to all this and to be honest there are SO many threads regarding weather its all so confusing. I will endeavor to be correct next time!

M.T. Cranium · 26-11-2009 7:50pm

UPDATE _ Thursday, 1845h
________________________

Looks as though the southwest is about to get slammed by a developing frontal wave coming in from the northwest ... expect to see some rather heavy hail showers at lower elevations, and/or a cold drenching rain, but snow is quite possible on higher ground with this (not that anyone will see it until the morning perhaps). This system appears to be on a track that will largely avoid most other counties but there may be an increase in the current scattering of gusty hail and rain showers, and a similar if less active chance of seeing a bit of snow by morning on higher slopes.

As for the weekend situation, the other threads on the forum are all over this situation, and I will just say, this is the traditional early season forecaster's headache of marginal but quite possible snowfall generation from an easterly flow around low pressure, all the parameters read out about 1-2 C and sleet, so the best call to make this far in advance is to suggest that snow may fall on elevations higher than perhaps 200m, and if it falls lower down it's likely to melt on contact with the rather warm ground, but anything's possible in this transitional situation. It could also just fizzle to drizzle as we say, but it does look like some snow will fall especially on the Wicklow and Dublin mountains (hills, whatever you wish to say) and perhaps well down towards the higher towns and suburbs around there.

We may have a better idea of the potential for this by the morning forecasts.

I am somewhat in a state of shock having very nearly visualized the orb of our primary star in the sky at one point this morning, so thin was the lower fog layer and all three cloud layers above it, that a form of sunlight was discernible, and not only that, it wasn't raining, which was confusing because I have become more or less attached to my umbrella. :eek:

glossy · 26-11-2009 8:34pm

thanks ...

M.T. Cranium · 27-11-2009 7:25am

Friday, 27 November, 2009
___________________________

TODAY, some rather heavy showers will cross the southern counties this morning; some sleet or mountain snow may develop with this. Further north, showers will be lighter and widely spaced with some sunshine through variable layers of higher cloud at times. It will be chilly with brisk W to NW winds; by afternoon, a new batch of showers is likely with hail fairly frequent, and this may extend over most of the country at times. Highs today will be around 7-9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and cold with some sleety showers remaining, mostly near the west coast. It could snow on higher parts of Connacht at times, with 1-2 inches possible there. Lows will be generally close to zero C with some frost where winds fall off to light.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with intervals of light rain or sleet, mixing with some snow over higher ground. This will be a rather weak and disorganized system and it could dry out in some places to allow for a little weak sunshine. Highs will be around 7-8 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking quite cold with the strong possibility of some snow, especially above 200 metres (asl) and on east-facing slopes of higher ground. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with highs of about 6 C. It may clear extensively by Monday morning with a sharp frost as lows fall to about
-3 to -5 C inland (-1 to +2 C in more sheltered coastal and urban locations). Then it's possible that more wet snow will fall as warm fronts develop Monday and push this colder air back towards the north. Highs on Monday could be quite chilly after the frosty start, around 3-5 C in some parts.

From TUESDAY on, a milder and wet spell is likely, and it could get rather windy at times, but so far nothing too definite on that front -- temperatures will recover to about 9-11 C.

We managed to have an entire day without rain here and the sun even made a brief appearance (Thursday afternoon), with a mild high of 12 C.

Check the other threads about snowfall for more details and opinions about what may be about to unfold -- and watch for updates here too.

M.T. Cranium · 27-11-2009 8:49pm

UPDATE _ Friday, 1945h
_____________________

Tonight, some cold rain or sleet will hover around the south coast, with only scattered light precip further north, could turn to wet snow in places. Tomorrow, a more organized area of rain, with higher elevation sleet and snow, will gradually push into the south coast and make progress north overnight into Sunday morning. This could become rather heavy at times near the east coast south of Dublin, and with my idea of a rain-snow elevation dividing line of about 200 metres, this would imply some heavy snow potentially on the higher parts of Wicklow especially. It's somewhat on a knife edge as to how this actually plays out, the cold air is marginal but in any case what there is of it (the cold air) will build up like a shallow dome over Ireland on Monday morning. Then we need to assess whether it will try to hold back the milder moist flow long enough to induce any snow or sleet on the warm fronts late Monday into Tuesday morning. This could be an elevation event too but for the northern half of the country this time.

Ripley's believe it or not, the sun is shining here, the skies are mostly blue, with patchy cloud that is leftover fog from earlier, and it was rather cold at 0900 (4 C) but now at almost noon it is about 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2009 6:27am

Saturday, 28 November, 2009
__________________________

TODAY will start out dry in most regions as light rain moves away from the southeast. The day will feature cool temperatures, a thickening high overcast progressively dimming the sun, and periods of rain setting in by late afternoon or evening across the south. Winds will be light most of the day but will become NE 20-30 mph in the south by evening. Highs will reach about 7-9 C.

TONIGHT will see periods of rain heavier in the southeast, mixing with sleet and snow at higher elevations especially over the mountains of counties Dublin and Wicklow. The rain will be somewhat lighter and may become sleety or mix with wet snow in some central regions, and this mixed precip will perhaps reach the northwest and parts of Ulster just before dawn. Lows will be about 3-5 C in the coastal southeast, and 1-3 C elsewhere with some patchy frost forming in northern areas and slippery road conditions quite possible especially on higher sections. Winds in the southeast counties will reach NE 30-40 mph near exposed coasts.

SUNDAY will see a continuation of this pattern, with moderate to heavy rain possible at times near the southeast coast accompanied by strong NE winds, snow falling on higher parts of the mountains and possibly coming down to lower elevations at times, and a sleety mixture elsewhere in Ireland, although not as heavy. By late Sunday, some areas will have had 20-40 mms of rain in the southeast, and higher elevations could see 5-15 cms of snow (but not nearly that much in transitional elevations such as higher suburbs or lower slopes of the mountains). Highs on Sunday could be fairly brutal, considering the wind, at only 5-7 C (and lower than this on higher slopes).

SUNDAY NIGHT will see the sleety mix and mountain snow gradually ending with clearing towards morning, starting earlier in Connacht so that lows there could reach -5 to -7 C inland. Elsewhere, Monday morning lows will be between -3 and 0 C for most, and probably a few degrees above freezing in central Dublin and around the southeast coast. However, note that a sharp frost will develop in most parts of Ireland and roads could be very slippery all night.

MONDAY will start out clear or at least dry, and cold, with high cloud quickly spreading across the sky, and a chilly southeast wind developing. There is some chance of a brief period of sleet or snow in the evening as warmer air returns aloft at first. Highs on Monday will be only 4-7 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY will be dominated by Atlantic low pressure systems and southeast to south winds, so it will turn milder, although it may feel rather raw at times due to the winds reaching 20-40 mph. Highs will be generally in the range of 8-11 C and night temperatures will be up considerably too.

There are some indications of colder air trying to work around from Russia and central Europe in a long-track easterly but this is rather speculative and in any case it may never reach the British Isles before moderating.

Watch for updates and commentary on the other threads about any sleet or snow this weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2009 6:17pm

UPDATE _ Saturday, 5:10 p.m.
_______________________

This evening and overnight, widespread fog is forming across east-central Ireland and with temperatures near freezing this could produce some very slippery roads, even some local black ice. The rain from the Channel low is slowly moving onto the coast between Cork and Wexford, and will probably continue to make slow further northward progress overnight mainly from Waterford east, and this will turn readily to snow over higher ground as temperatures in the precip zone are only 2-4 C near the coast now.

As to the eventual outcome by Sunday morning, it still looks as though the southeast counties could get hit by fairly strong bands of moisture, rain near sea level, sleet higher up and snow above perhaps 300 metres, but with some variation at times. This mixture of precip could move further north and west through Sunday but the further it moves, the more fragmented and light it will become. Winds will become much stronger late tonight and on Sunday too, from the NNE at 20-40 mph near the Irish Sea coast, otherwise 15-30 mph. Over the nearby seas, winds of 30-50 mph will develop tomorrow, and if you have travel plans, you may run into some nasty weather in Wales too.

After our brush with drought yesterday, it's back into the murky rain, fog and drizzle for us, a change first brought to our attention by a driver outside where we live, just before midnight, spinning out on a routine turn and coming to rest between a road sign and a tree. As it wasn't that close to freezing, it reminds me to remind you to watch out on the roads (for the other guy mostly :cool: but have a great weekend despite the weather).

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2009 1:14am

UPDATE _ Saturday, 0010h
_____________________

Current indications show the low quite strong and trying to move north towards Wales, then slowly losing that battle and being pushed more to the southeast through Sunday. This is going to allow a band of heavy moisture to continue to drift further northwest to cover more of Ireland as the night goes on, and this precip could be quite heavy, as mentioned earlier, trending to snow at higher elevations as well as further distances inland (partly because the Irish Sea is relatively warm, and partly because further inland, the air is already colder and as winds pick up the trajectory will be from Ulster where it is also quite cold).

So a rather complicated picture, heavy rain along the coast and up to about 300 metres on the east side of the hills and mountains, then sleet, then snow over the summits and probably mixing back to sleet on the far side as the mess moves further inland.

The frequent thunder and lightning being reported are mainly due to instability created by cold air flowing out of northern England and Wales over the 10 C waters of the Irish Sea. This is not quite a classic winter sea effect situation as the precip bands would be there anyway given this strong of a low (980 mbs now), but the process is similar.

I imagine that the thunder and lightning may be noted further inland as time goes on, this system will continue to back up and loop for another 9-12 hours which is causing considerable friction between charged air masses and the land.

Another component of this weather picture is heavy hail that is really ice pellets or a sort of frozen sleet falling rapidly and not having time to melt before hitting the ground (whatever the surface temperatures may be). It's not surprising that this hail would be close to the more active thunder and lightning as the processes are related.

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2009 6:17am

Sunday, 29 November, 2009
__________________________

Watch for slippery or even icy road conditions in some higher eastern locations as well as some central districts today, and more generally tonight and Monday morning.

TODAY will continue wet in southeast counties, as periods of moderate to heavy rain cover parts of the country south of a line from Meath to Cork. At higher elevations in this zone, the rain will change to sleet at times, and snow could accumulate above 300 metres asl. Further rainfalls of 20 mms are likely, with some urban flooding possible in parts of this region. Highs in this region will be near 7 C near sea level, trending down to 2-4 C at higher elevations (zero on high summits, climbing strongly discouraged). Winds will be NE 20-40 mph (gusts to 50 near the Wicklow coast). There may be further thunder and lightning especially in Wicklow and Wexford.

In a zone further west that runs from about Kerry to Ulster, excluding most of Connacht, the precipitation will be more intermittent, more prone to a sleety mix or accumulating snow in some places, amounts of about 10 mms or several cms of snow, and winds will be somewhat lighter at NE 15-30 mph. It will be colder here, with highs of about 2-4 C.

In much of Connacht, the skies will be partly to mostly cloudy but precipitation will take the form of lines of sea effect showers originating near Donegal and Derry, heading in a generally SSW direction towards Galway. Amounts will be variable (3-7 mms rain, hail, or 3-7 cms of snow on higher ground). Highs will be around 4-5 C. Winds will be generally N 15-30 mph but stronger at times near the coast and on higher ground.

TONIGHT will see all of this precipitation and the stronger winds moving away to the east around midnight, with slow clearing to follow; however, there may be periods of sleet or rain until midnight in the southeast. Eventually some central and western parts will clear, despite a few rogue sea effect bands weakly persisting. Sharp frost will develop, with lows inland of -3 to -5 C, closer to zero C in Dublin and some other coastal regions around the southern half of the country. Winds will fall off to light northerly.

MONDAY will have a generally dry start under patches of clear sky, and patches of low cloud from overnight fog. Higher cloud will overspread around mid-day from the southwest, and it will be quite cold with highs possibly reaching only 4-6 C.

MONDAY NIGHT could see further sleet or snow in higher parts of central and northern counties as milder air slowly spreads in, mainly over top of the cold surface layers at first. Lows will be generally near -1 to +2 C, rising temperatures are likely after midnight though.

TUESDAY will become windy and wet with the winds starting out SE 30-45 mph and veering rapidly to SW 30-50 mph, with heavy showers developing, and temperatures rising slowly to reach about 8-10 C by late in the day.

WEDNESDAY is likely to bring very strong winds at times from a westerly direction, and a cold feel as temperatures fall back to around 6-8 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY, the oncoming Atlantic low will circle around and weaken somewhat, bringing further periods of rain, fog and drizzle, with temperatures generally near 8 C.

The further outlook calls for a milder period to develop again under southeast winds, despite an advance west across Europe of cold Russian air that will perhaps make it as far as western Germany or even Holland before losing its intensity and mixing in with a milder southeast flow over France. This could eventually lead to a colder day or two somewhere down the line, if the mild southeasterlies happen to get pushed too far west like around last New Years.

The weather across North America is changing slowly from the very mild pattern we have seen all November, to something looking more like very cold central and near normal on both coasts. This promises to fire up the Atlantic considerably around the energy peak 14-16 December that I would associate in my research with new moon. As a result, just as a speculative long-range forecast, much like it says in my winter outlook in that thread, look for a stormy period mid-month, possibly followed by rather cold weather around Christmas (white? probably not in most places, but at least a chance), and I'll throw in this detail -- another mild, windy system for New Years Eve.

Meanwhile, it has been raining most of the day here and it's quite mild at about 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2009 7:18am

Monday, 30 November, 2009
_____________________________

Watch for some icy sections, local fog and black ice, and sun glare combining to make this morning's driving conditions rather tricky in places.

TODAY will be dry in most places, with some sunshine especially this morning, although there are some weak showers of soft hail (or snow) in parts of Connacht. This morning's nippy northerly wind will tend to die off by mid-day and some higher cloud will spread in from the southwest. Highs today will be around 5-7 C.

TONIGHT will see some clear spots in Ulster so that it may return to near freezing there for a while, but other regions should hold near 2-4 C before rising slowly towards 6 C as winds increase to SSE 20-30 mph. There is some chance of isolated sleet in central counties, before light rain sets in by morning.

TUESDAY will become windy from around sunrise with periods of rain, winds veering to SW 30-40 mph and temperatures rising to around 9-11 C.

WEDNESDAY will be similar, rather windy at times with showers or periods of rain, and fog developing in many areas; highs will be near 9 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will see further light rain or showers, and moderate west to northwest winds, with highs near 7 or 8 C.

The weekend is likely to stay fairly mild, but the models have been giving very conflicting signals about developments beyond 5-6 days. There are suggestions of milder weather for a while, then a sharp cooling trend mid-month.

Sunday was a mild, dry day here with some fog, considerable cloud and temperatures near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-12-2009 6:27am

Tuesday, 1 December, 2009
___________________________

TODAY ... Any lingering frost should rapidly moderate but there could be icy sections on roads in north central counties and parts of inland Ulster until about 0900. A misty light rain is setting in from the west, and could begin as sleet or freezing drizzle in a few of these locations. Otherwise, expect it to be cloudy and cold in eastern counties (but above freezing) until the mist or rain arrives later this morning. Then most areas will have several hours of this rain followed by brighter skies and milder air as winds veer to SW 20-30 mph. Highs will eventually reach 8-10 C.

TONIGHT will be rather windy at times and showery with lows near 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will turn a bit colder as showers become more mixed with hail, and sleet could return to higher elevations of Connacht. Winds will veer further to WNW 20-30 mph (and could be gustier at times in the southwest). Highs will be near 8 C.

THURSDAY will be a rather chilly and damp day with fog, light rain, sleet on higher ground, and possibly a touch of snow in a few higher locations too. Lows will be near 1-3 C and highs 5-7 C.

FRIDAY will be milder again with intervals of mist or light rain, and some sunshine breaking through at times. Highs will be closer to 10 C although a scattered light frost may start the day.

The weekend looks mild with periods of rain, and there are indications of a windy wet storm event around Tuesday 8th.

Here on Monday, we had a relatively pleasant day, some rain before noon but then it cleared up and reached about 10 C.

Here's something to mull over -- Thursday it could be 70 F in Boston and New York City. Friday it could be closer to 35 F. Then there's some chance of snow there from a weak offshore trailing wave on Saturday. This is the beginning of the storm system that we're tracking for middle of next week coming somewhere close to Ireland.

Discodog · 01-12-2009 12:47pm

OK I am in the West & I need to do a lot this week. Out of Wed, Thur & Fri which days are likely to have less showers ?.

maquiladora · 01-12-2009 1:15pm

Discodog wrote: »

OK I am in the West & I need to do a lot this week. Out of Wed, Thur & Fri which days are likely to have less showers ?.

Hard to say, but Friday might have the longest dry spells.

Discodog · 01-12-2009 1:19pm

Cheers but BBC are showing a lump of rain in the West for Friday - too early for timings yet. At least I can do a bit this afternoon once this batch of showers move away.

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2009 5:48am

Wednesday, 2 December, 2009
______________________________

Full moon occurs today at 0732 GMT

TODAY will bring some locally heavy showers or thundershowers, but these are only covering about 20% of the country so there may also be some fairly long dry intervals. One batch of heavier showers is moving into the southwest this morning, while another is creeping slowly northeast towards Kildare from Laois. Winds will be rather light southerly ahead of a trough that will reach central Ireland by mid-afternoon; then they will become light northwesterly and pick up speed overnight. Highs today should vary from near 10 C in eastern counties, to 7-8 C in higher parts of western counties.

TONIGHT will bring rather strong west to northwest winds (30-50 mph) and more frequent showers mixing in with hail, sleet and mountain snow by morning. Lows will be around 4-6 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with widespread showers of hail, and some mountain snowfalls. Winds will continue rather blustery from the WNW (30-40 mph at times) and it will be quite chilly with highs of 5-7 C.

FRIDAY will bring milder weather and some dry intervals although another period of steady rain is likely by afternoon or evening. Winds will be lighter and back to the southwest. Highs will be near 10 C after a scattered light frost in the morning.

THE WEEKEND is looking fairly mild and unsettled. A strong storm is indicated for Tuesday of next week on the most recent guidance; this will have to be watched for gale force winds and heavy rains.

We had a very pleasant day here on Monday with clear skies and highs near 8 C; currently it is clear and about +2 C heading for a scattered frost by morning. Full moon makes it quite bright at almost 9 pm local time.

Duiske · 02-12-2009 9:07pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Friday will bring milder weather and some dry intervals although another period of steady rain is likely by afternoon or evening. Winds will be lighter and back to the southwest. Highs will be near 10 C after a scattered light frost in the morning.

M.T., the rain you mention for Friday looks like it could be quiet heavy, and could possibly stall for a time over eastern areas before moving away.
And with yet more potential for another spell of rain during the early hours of Sunday, do you think there would be high enough amounts to add to the flood problems ?

M.T. Cranium · 03-12-2009 7:23am

Thursday, 3 December, 2009
_____________________________

TODAY will be rather cold and windy at times, with frequent showers of rain or hail, mixing with snow on higher elevations. Winds will be WNW 20-40 mph and highs only 6-8 C.

TONIGHT will remain rather windy and quite cold, with less frequent but wintry showers in some parts, especially higher elevations. Lows will reach about 0-2 C and there will be scattered light ground frost.

FRIDAY will become milder, with some morning sunshine possible, then thickening cloud followed by periods of rain and a rising southerly wind by evening. Highs will reach 10-12 C.

SATURDAY will be windy with periods of rain, winds SSW 30-50 mph (gusts to 60 mph west coast) and risk of about 20-35 mms of rain in total. Morning lows will be 6-8 C and highs 11-13 C.

SUNDAY will continue rather windy and not quite as mild with more showers, highs near 9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY should be fairly mild and breezy with showers. The current thinking on the deep Atlantic storm is that it will be quite intense out to the west of Irish coastal regions, but that its effects will be much worse out around 20 W than near the west coast (but still rather windy there, gusts to 55-65 mph possible; out in the Atlantic, more like 80-100 mph). This storm is currently being shown curving around towards Iceland with central pressures well down around 935 mbs. Let's hope it does stay that far off shore, as a closer approach could be quite damaging.

In the longer term, there are indications of more mild weather through most of next week, but colder weather in the following week.

We had our second consecutive clear, sunny day here on Wednesday, and a sharp frost earlier as well as another one developing outside now at 10:20 pm. Highs are about 8 C in this spell, and lows near -2 C.

Predicting highs of about 15-18 C in New York and Boston today, and it could even touch 20 C in some parts of the northeast U.S., with heavy rain. This is basically from the same low that approaches Ireland by Saturday.

M.T. Cranium · 03-12-2009 8:42pm

UPDATE _ Thursday, 1940h
___________________

Looks like a generally clear night ahead with some patchy frost developing. Cloud could begin spreading into the southwest before morning and so any sunshine tomorrow morning will be largely confined to the east and north.

The forecast remains about the same, with the latest guidance on the Tuesday (night) storm event showing it quite strong and edging a bit closer to Ireland than earlier guidance, but not close enough to push very strong winds across the whole country, just parts of Connacht (where I am sure they are used to it). I'm sure this will change in detail before the event.

Well, believe it or not, 21 C in Boston at this hour with sunshine and a strong westerly wind. There are temperatures above 18 C all over the northeast US at this time. The low that would become the Tuesday storm near Ireland is just starting to develop now along a front through the Gulf of Mexico. This is expected to run up along the cold front, once that passes off the coast tomorrow morning, and may brush some parts of the northeast US with a brief wet snowfall before winding up to hit eastern Canada harder on Sunday. Then it will be racing across the Atlantic, so I'll keep watching its progress closely.

We are enjoying a third consecutive sunny day here, although there seems to be more high cloud around today. It's rather cold but not as cold as it may get after a front moves south on Friday (late) to usher in arctic air from the northeast. Unlike you folks, we don't have any seas between us and the arctic air source, but we do have the warming effects of downsloping, so it usually arrives here about -4 C by day and -12 C by night, much warmer than they see inland from here.

M.T. Cranium · 04-12-2009 6:55am

Friday, 4 December, 2009
_______________________

TODAY, a few rural parts of the northeast could start out icy but most other counties have seen overcast skies develop, allowing temperatures to rise above freezing already ... in any case, the colder spots will gradually cloud over too and warm to about +3 C, then all eastern counties will see the light rain spreading in from the central parts of Ireland (western counties are almost done with this first round) ... this batch is not very heavy and will give 3-5 mms, then some breaks will develop in the overcast, followed by another heavier round of showers from west to east later today. Highs will become quite mild, 10-12 C generally. Winds will pick up somewhat to SSW 20-35 mph.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with showers or longer periods of rain, rising southerly winds and lows only 6-8 C.

SATURDAY will be windy with morning rain followed by variable skies and squally showers in some areas. Rainfalls of 15-30 mms are likely. Winds will increase to SSW 30-55 mph (higher gusts in coastal Mayo) and highs will be around 12-13 C.

SUNDAY will become partly cloudy and breezy to windy, with a slight drop in temperature, occasional heavy showers that may contain hail and thunder, and winds SW 20-40 mph, with lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

MONDAY will be rather cool and windy with mixed wintry showers over higher ground and the northwest especially, but further south the changes will be more subtle -- highs will range from 6 C in the inland north to 10 C in the south.

TUESDAY we are still watching carefully to see how close to Connacht a very strong low decides to come -- the latest indications are fairly close but not quite close enough to cause concern for damaging winds on land. Out around 15-20 W it could be blowing a full hurricane at times (from the south) but figure on gusts to 70 mph on the exposed west coast, to 50 mph elsewhere further east. Some rain is likely to sweep through Ireland, probably early in the day, with this near-miss storm. At least I'm hoping it's a near miss. Highs will reach about 12 C.

The rest of the week should be breezy to windy and a bit colder with some episodes of mixed showers, but it will warm up again towards the weekend. There are indications of a more settled, frosty period to follow that, before Christmas, and the models keep flirting with advancing cold air from the far eastern parts of Europe.

It has recently clouded over here (at 10 p.m.) obscuring the moon, and it is rather cold, but about to turn even colder for us.

pauldry · 04-12-2009 10:52am

Unsettled up to 10th Dec. There on it will be dry quiet and cloudy until 25th or 26th when rain will move in with showers some wintry by the end of the month.

Sponge Bob · 04-12-2009 11:12am

maquiladora wrote: »

Hard to say, but Friday might have the longest dry spells.

Wrong , the correct answer was wednesday

maquiladora · 04-12-2009 11:41am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Wrong , the correct answer was wednesday

Thats why I said 'might' :P The wonderful Irish weather eh?

M.T. Cranium · 05-12-2009 7:18am

Saturday, 5 December, 2009
____________________________

TODAY will see some rain moving in from the southwest, but the morning may remain dry in eastern counties. It will be quite mild and misty or locally foggy, and eventually 15-25 mms of rain may fall. Winds will increase in western counties to about 25-45 mph from the south, and highs will generally reach 12 or 13 C.

TONIGHT will be showery and rather windy with lows of only 5-7 C, as winds veer to SW 20-35 mph.

SUNDAY will be somewhat cloudy and showery, with a few sunny intervals, and it will feel a bit colder in WSW winds of 20-30 mph. Highs will be 8-11 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will become quite windy and mild with periods of rain (possibly heavy in western counties), with highs near 12 C. Winds are currently not expected to become too strong, but will average 30-55 mph (the strong low well offshore will have 70 mph gusts or worse out over the open Atlantic).

The rest of the week should continue rather mild and showery, with highs around 10 C.

We had quite a cold but sunny day here on Friday; the highs were generally about 5 C and now it has dropped off to -1 C at 10:30 pm local time.

Redsunset · 05-12-2009 7:26am

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=6638636001&title=Ireland: Weekend Flooding Concerns

M.T. Cranium · 06-12-2009 6:28am

Sunday, 6 December, 2009
___________________________

TODAY will be breezy and partly cloudy with some sunny intervals, and passing showers. One or two of these may become heavy with hail or thunder, but many places won't see that much intensity. Winds will average SW 20-35 mph, and highs will reach 9-11 C.

(added 0715h ... some thundershowers with hail are possible in the southwest this morning. Winds will continue to gust to about 50 mph on the west coast until afternoon.)

TONIGHT will become rather cold and unsettled with periods of rain or sleet developing, and snow on higher ground possible. Lows will fall to about 2-4 C but could briefly reach freezing in the northeast.

MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, and passing showers, still rather wintry in the north at times. It will feel colder than today with winds more westerly and highs 7-9 C.

TUESDAY, the intense Atlantic storm is still being shown well offshore, so its effects will be somewhat of a glancing blow (we hope), with wind gusts to about 65 mph on the west coast at times (compared to perhaps 100 mph well out in the Atlantic). The rest of the country won't even be that windy, reaching 45-50 mph gusts, but there may be intervals of heavy rain from this storm's frontal systems as they rotate across Ireland, with highs to 10-12 C.

The rest of the week is looking like more of the same, southwest winds, fairly mild, occasional rain, and some sunny breaks, but towards the end of the week it looks more settled for a day or two, with the possibility of some frosts at night. There are sometimes indications of much colder air arriving around two weeks from now, something that would not be too surprising given the set-up around the hemisphere right now.

Meanwhile, we won't have to wait here, it is already quite cold at -2 C with a chilly east wind, the ground is bare but somewhat frozen and the entire day (Saturday) was sunny but some cloud and light snow is passing to our south from east to west and may catch us later tonight. Remember how it was 65 F in Washington DC on Thursday? Today some parts of that region had 3-5 inches of snow!

M.T. Cranium · 07-12-2009 6:40am

Monday, 7 December, 2009
__________________________

TODAY ... This morning will see some persistent light rain, turning sleety over higher ground, then there should be some brighter intervals by afternoon with more scattered and isolated showers. Winds will veer from south to west and become rather gusty at times (20-40 mph). Highs will average 8-9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few showers, and rather mild with lows of about 4-6 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy (windy in northwest coastal districts) with periods of rain developing, heavier in the west. Highs will reach 10-12 C. Wind gusts will be generally from the SW at 40-50 mph at most, but could reach 65 mph in western Mayo and Galway.

WEDNESDAY will continue about the same with slightly less blustery SW winds, showers, and highs of about 9-11 C.

THURSDAY, a drying trend is likely to begin, with winds backing to southerly and falling off to lighter speeds, cloudy for most with some sunny breaks, and possibly some light rain or drizzle near the south coast. Highs will be around 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY and into the weekend, current indications show a rather cool, dry pattern with higher pressure building, and possible frosts developing at night, highs 5-7 C, and risk of persistent fog.

There are some indications in the longer term of even colder weather developing at times next week.

My weather on Sunday was clear and quite cold with a brisk east wind. The high was about 3 C but it felt more like -5 C. Winds were not too strong here but picked up speed out to the west of us and did some damage in Victoria, B.C. with gusts over there to 90 km/hr. We're expecting this cold spell to continue most of this week.

glimmerman123 · 07-12-2009 3:17pm

Met Eireann are saying it is to turn a lot colder after next weekend with winds turning to a north- north easterly direction with severe frosts at night. Looks like we could be in for a long cold dry spell. No snow mentioned at the moment.

M.T. Cranium · 07-12-2009 10:23pm

UPDATE _ Monday, 9:20 p.m.
____________________

Good thing the Atlantic storm decided to make a left turn a few degrees of longitude earlier than the models originally thought -- because it's already down to about 948 mbs and producing 70-100 mph winds out in the middle of the ocean. However, it's now heading more for Iceland than Ireland.

We're having another clear, cold day here, slight chill from an east wind of 10-20 mph, and -2 C at 1 p.m. local time. This cold air has moved as far south as central California and Nevada, where it's fuelling a strong low that will head for the Great Lakes region over the next two days, bringing a blizzard to the central and northern plains states and the upper Midwest. Chicago will be on the edge of this but further north they could see a foot of snow in the next two days, then the lake effect snow machine turns on when cold westerly winds sweep in behind the low. This storm will never get anywhere near Ireland, it's heading more for southern Greenland in about a week, as the European blocking high builds west.

Looks as though it will be colder tonight before 0200h than after, as the milder southwest winds begin to pick up and increase the cloud cover towards dawn. Some places could hit 2-3 C at some point around 0200h in counties north of Dublin. It will be milder than that elsewhere and by morning in all parts.

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2009 7:56am

Tuesday, 8 December, 2009
____________________________

TODAY will be breezy with showery outbreaks of rain, generally rather light with 5-15 mms on average ... and some sunny breaks by afternoon especially in the west. Winds will pick up to reach SSW 30-45 mph in most regions and 40-60 mph near the west coast at times. (Much stronger winds will be found between 17 and 25 W as a deep storm heads north towards Iceland.)

Highs today will reach 11-13 C and this will probably be the mildest day in quite some time to come.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy and it will remain rather mild, with lows of about 4-7 C. Any showers will tend to be fairly light and brief in duration. Winds will settle back to SW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy but not too windy, partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers, and not quite as mild as today with highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY, expect a morning frost and some fog patches, icy sections on some roads in east central counties mostly, then weak sunshine or mist during the day, with lighter winds. Lows will be as cold as -1 C in some parts, but 2-5 C generally, and highs about 4-7 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY are currently looking cold and misty or foggy with sharp frosts at night, either low cloud or weak sunshine in the daytimes, and a temperature range from about -2 C to 6 C on average. In these spells, some central locations can be much colder, and some coastal spots can be a bit milder.

In the longer term, the models are suggesting a good chance of even colder weather arriving on east or northeast winds. This is not "carved in stone" yet but the build-up is typical, first with the Atlantic storm track dying out and then high pressure building up from the continent to the British Isles, but the final stage with higher pressure moving further west and north to direct a colder arctic flow is not guaranteed by any means, the high could just hang around and sink back into Europe, allowing a slight warming trend. I think the chances of a cold spell next week are rising to better than 50-50 now.

We had another cold, sunny day here but with slowly increasing high cloud. It was about 2-3 C by mid-afternoon (normal here is about 8 C). However, this is nothing compared to the intense cold in Alberta about 600 miles to the east of here, where for example Edmonton is about -25 C with a foot of snow on the ground, snow that fell a few days ago and froze solid apparently, so now it is very difficult to move and people are having to spend hours digging out their cars from their on-street parking. This very cold air is surging south into the central U.S. and interacting with strong low pressure near Denver Colorado to create the season's first big blizzard on the plains.

M.T. Cranium · 09-12-2009 7:24am

Wednesday, 9 December, 2009
_____________________________

TODAY will be cloudy with some brief sunny breaks, and intervals of light rain scattered fairly widely, but somewhat heavier over eastern counties. Winds will continue SW 20-35 mph but by evening will back to SSE 15-30 mph with mist or light rain. Highs today will be near 10 C.

TONIGHT will see mist and fog after the evening rain, and there could be some icy sections by morning on rural roads and highways in eastern (inland) counties. Lows there could reach -2 C but otherwise more like 2-4 C.

THURSDAY will have a widespread frost followed by misty or foggy conditions in light winds, and a slow temperature rise to only 4-7 C in some inland sections; coastal districts are more likely to reach 6-9 C with some weak sunshine at times. Mist could form into drizzle or light rain near the northwest coast.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY will continue much the same with fog and/or frost at night, weak sunshine or low cloud, mist and fog by day, and light winds. Lows will be in the -3 to +2 C range, highs 4-8 C.

SUNDAY will turn a bit breezier from the east, a cold wind at times with some drizzle, sleet showers or small hail possible especially over southern higher elevations. Lows will be near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

NEXT WEEK will quite possibly turn even colder with some risk of snow arriving on east winds. This situation is not "carved in stone" yet but indications are getting more favourable all the time for some wintry weather next week.

Tuesday was another cold, sunny day here, well below our normal values, rising only to about zero C at mid-day, and falling to -6 C at night (including tonight). Meanwhile, a plains states blizzard is heading for the Great Lakes, and there is thunder-snow near the south end of Lake Michigan.

M.T. Cranium · 10-12-2009 6:33am

Thursday, 10 December, 2009
__________________________

TODAY will be generally fair and reasonably mild, as there is just enough of a southeast breeze to keep the air moving and prevent fog and low cloud; however, that could happen in a few isolated valley locations. Highs will be generally near 8-9 C, but could be held to 5 C in any foggy locations.

TONIGHT will become foggy or misty and rather cold with lows generally between -2 and +2 C.

FRIDAY will see some of this fog failing to disperse, keeping some inland valley locations a bit colder than most other locations, where a bit of weak sunshine will boost temperatures to about 7-8 C.

SATURDAY will be similar, morning fog and frost, afternoon hazy sun or low cloud, and a temperature range of about -2 to +7 C.

SUNDAY will see more of an east wind developing; a few brief showers of light hail or sleet may develop near the east coast, and the wind will add some chill to daytime temperatures held to about 5-6 C.

MONDAY has some chance of seeing sleet or snow at times in an east wind of about 20-25 mph, although this is not a massive arctic invasion, but certainly one of the colder days of recent weeks with highs near 5 C.

Beyond Monday, the possibiliities range from deeper cold with higher risk of snow, to a sort of fizzling out easterly that slowly turns milder again. The best bet at this point is to suggest continued rather cold weather with some chance of snow, and wait to see how things develop over the weekend, as the amount of colder air moving west from Russia is somewhat uncertain.

On Wednesday here, we enjoyed more wintry sunshine with some drifting fog patches in the morning; it remains quite cold, -1 C daytime, -7 C early morning, and we're not expecting major changes in this. The Great Lakes region meanwhile is expecting a massive onslaught of snow squalls later today and on Friday. Some places could see two feet or more. Buffalo NY may be closed down by heavy squalls. This won't reach the large cities on the east coast but it is turning colder there after quite a mild day on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Wisconsin and Iowa are digging out of a massive blizzard that dropped almost two feet of snow there yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 10-12-2009 8:02pm

UPDATE _ Thursday, 7 p.m.
____________________

Revising the "tonight" portion of the forecast above as follows ... western counties will see cloud and outbreaks of light rain (heavier in coastal Kerry) with lows of about 5-6 C. Central counties (meaning from north to south in this case) will see increasing cloud and mist developing, temperatures will fall to about 2-3 C then rise slightly and some patchy light rain may arrive after midnight. Eastern counties will start out generally clear or locally foggy and remain rather cold and dry most of the night. Lows will average -1 C in rural parts and 2-4 C in Dublin and other larger towns and cities.

This is a rather weak disturbance that will probably begin to dissipate by morning, and also it will be pushed back to the west by swelling high pressure over the North Sea and eastern England. So the forecast from that point on should require less updating. However I notice on the 12z guidance that the shaping of the high has changed somewhat and I would take out reference to easterly winds on Sunday for most of Ireland, it may remain more similar to Saturday as per this forecast, then colder air does seem likely to arrive on Monday and it could last much of the week, although Ireland is first to escape from each wave of it as the easterly flow relaxes to more of a locally variable pattern under transient high pressure. The overall theme from next week to Christmas seems to be periods of quite cold weather each having some chance of laying down a bit of snow. White Christmas? That may be possible, but certainly many are likely to see a bit of snow in the two weeks between now and then.

I am just getting started on my day, the U.S. storm coverage exhausted me with a couple of non-stop weather days so I am trying to take it easy today. :cool: In other words, while it appears to have clouded over outside, I haven't looked at much local data yet, people look frozen walking past my window (we are soft coastal people here and freeze rather easily compared to the more hardy folk inland).

M.T. Cranium · 11-12-2009 6:10am

Friday, 11 December, 2009
___________________________

TODAY will be misty or locally foggy as light rain in the west slowly dies out. There could be a few glimpses of the sun in eastern counties, but a low overcast will become widespread. It will turn a little cooler than yesterday with highs generally near 10 C in the west, 7 C in the east. Winds will be light southeasterly (20-30 mph near the west coast).

TONIGHT will be cloudy with fog patches, drizzle at times in western districts, and rather cold with lows of about 3-5 C. If it clears anywhere (possible in the northeast) it could fall to near freezing and fog would likely become thicker as a result.

SATURDAY will start out rather foggy and raw with patchy drizzle. There could be some mid-day sunshine inland, and highs for the day will average near 7 C.

SUNDAY will be similar, possibly a bit colder, with fog, low cloud, morning frost in places, lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY will be a cold period with raw east winds, strong at times near the south and southeast coasts, drizzle or snow grains and highs of about 4 C, with lows near -2 C. More organized snowfall might develop over higher parts of the southeast.

From that point on, the weather is likely to remain quite cold for about a week, but there are various model depictions of how cold, and whether any snow could be produced. Some of the guidance suggests a dry spell wth high pressure nearby, but there is enough uncertainty that I am saying "chance of further snowfall" in this period. Any breakdown of cold weather is highly uncertain and could be as far off as Christmas or a little beyond.

Thursday here turned out to be a cloudy, cold day with a high near -1 C, and some light snow may develop here on Friday ... the longer range trend is for milder weather to return slowly. Meanwhile, parts of the Great Lakes region saw local squalls of 18 inches of snow (near Buffalo, NY for example).

M.T. Cranium · 12-12-2009 6:10am

Saturday, 12 December, 2009
____________________________

TODAY will be cloudy with some brief, hazy sunny intervals, but also some drifting fog patches or thicker low cloud, with light winds and highs generally in the 7-8 C range except 10-11 C near the west coast.

TONIGHT will be a bit colder than previous nights, any clearing will quickly lead to thick fog formation, and local frost and ice. Lows will range from -2 to +3 C (probably milder in Kerry and some coastal locations elsewhere).

SUNDAY will have some dense fog in the morning, some brighter intervals mid-day, but a considerable amount of low cloud will remain, with winds still rather light to easterly 10-15 mph. Highs will be in the 5-8 C range.

MONDAY and TUESDAY, the air starts moving again, with the high drifting off to the west, winds become NE 15-25 mph, and this may bring some localized weak hail or snow showers, especially over east-facing slopes. There will be widespread frost and fog overnight, and the temperature range will be generally -2 to +6 C on average.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY, the models have some uncertainty, but there could be some snow in this period, as slightly colder air arrives behind a weak disturbance, and the flow becomes either northerly or locally variable with low pressure near southeast Ireland. However, this situation remains less than definite, as always with cold air moving west in Europe.

At my location, we had some light snow pellets that left a slight dusting, but this is our first snow locally. The high was about +1 C. We're expecting several more days of light snow possibly turning heavier by Monday, then the milder Pacific air returns. But further east, it is brutally cold -- for example, around -40 C in northern Saskatchewan. About a hundred miles north of Toronto, lake effect snow has piled up to three feet in Muskoka. :eek:

M.T. Cranium · 13-12-2009 5:54am

Sunday, 13 December, 2009
___________________________

There have been only minor changes on the forecast models. The general idea is that a rather chilly high will remain near Ireland but drifting away to the northwest next two days, then a somewhat colder northeast flow will develop, lead to a cold ridge of higher pressure around Thursday and Friday, which will be replaced next weekend by a cold northerly flow. The models then seem to go back to a sort of default mild position which often turns out to be postponed once a cold spell begins, so I would not place too much faith in depictions of a strong warming trend just before Christmas, yet -- I would expect that a few days later perhaps.

TODAY will start out with some locally dense fog -- watch out for icy roads in these foggy areas -- mainly over eastern inland regions, with partly cloudy to sunny weather elsewhere. The fog may be slow to lift in places because there is very little wind or warmth from the sun, however, by afternoon most places should be dry with some sunshine and highs of 6-8 C. A bit of an east wind will be noticeable around Wexford and Waterford perhaps. The fog will be quick to return around sunset.

TONIGHT will likely see widespread fog and icy roads before morning, especially away from the south and west coasts which could stay above freezing; otherwise lows will tend to fall to about -3 C in rural sections and -1 to +1 in larger towns.

MONDAY will be foggy for quite a while in many locations and perhaps all day in some, and there, highs could fail to reach 3 or 4 C. Otherwise, some hazy sunshine may break through low cloud and boost temperatures to 5-7 C. Winds will start to feel more keen from the northeast at times. There could be some isolated hail or sleet showers mostly over higher parts of the east.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with more widespread hail or sleet showers, giving snowfall accumulations on some hills. Lows will be near -3 C and highs near 4-6 C.

WEDNESDAY will see frequent mixed showers giving some local accumulations of snow mostly on higher ground, and sleet or hail elsewhere. Winds will pick up to NE 20-30 mph. Lows of about -1 C will be followed by highs of 3-6 C.

THURSDAY will see a few more light wintry showers, but longer intervals of sunshine, and cold temperatures, morning lows of -4 C and highs of about +4 C.

FRIDAY will see increasing cloud and some flurries or showers of hail (graupel) as winds become more NW'ly at about 10-20 mph, with lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

NEXT WEEKEND could see even colder weather with snow possible in places. We shall continue to monitor this prospect here and in the various other threads on the weather forum. I will try to remain conservative on this because it is not quite a "done deal" yet ... but the signs are good with very strong high pressure building over Greenland and Iceland later this week.

Here in Vancouver today, we had a cloudy but mainly dry day, the offshore precip failed to move in so far, but when it does we'll have some snow or sleet here for about two days, followed by a warming trend. It was near +1 C at mid-afternoon and remains about zero now at 9 p.m.

Updates as necessary ...

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2009 8:41am

Monday, 14 December, 2009
____________________________

TODAY will feature cold temperatures and some lingering fog, mainly in central counties, but with fairly clear skies overhead, when the fog dissipates some chilly sunshine will follow. There could be some locally brief and light hail showers by afternoon in locations near the Irish Sea and north coast of Donegal. Winds will become more noticeable today, NE 10-20 mph. Highs will vary from 3-4 C in persistent fog, to 6-8 C elsewhere.

TONIGHT will see a return to very cold and locally foggy conditions, but there will be an increase in mid-level cloud from east to west through the night, tending to dissipate fog in the east, and raise temperatures slightly, so it could be around -3 C then rise somewhat before morning. Further west, any clear spots could get as cold as -5 C. There are likely to be some very icy spots in this mixture.

TUESDAY will see more cloud than sun, with passing if rather light showers of hail or sleet, with highs near 6 or 7 C. Winds will continue to add more chill, as they reach NE 15-25 mph.

WEDNESDAY will bring more frequent wintry showers, with some snow on hills, hail or sleet lower down, and a gusty NE wind 20-30 mph adding considerably to the chill, as temperatures vary from morning lows near -1 C to afternoon highs near 5 C.

THURSDAY will be similar, if perhaps a little colder still, but there may also be longer sunny intervals. The temperature range will be about -3 to 4 C.

FRIDAY will bring an interval of cold and largely clear weather with severe morning frosts as lows reach -6 C in places, and highs will recover to only around 2-5 C. There may be some lingering freezing fog in a few spots.

NEXT WEEKEND, cold air will come in from a new direction, the north and northwest. Despite a longer sea track, this air will be quite cold and full of wintry showers of hail and snow. Temperatures will be close to freezing, possibly struggling as high as 2-4 C in any longer sunny intervals, but easily reaching -3 C at night.

The uncertainty is slowly reducing from now through the weekend with most models showing this general scenario in one form or another, but what happens beyond the weekend is quite uncertain, with some models showing the cold air sticking around until Christmas, and others showing it pushed away to the northeast by a returning mild southerly flow. I would put the odds somewhat more on the persistent cold option as my research shows warming more towards the 27th-28th. I do think that New Years will see a milder interval.

So the question of a white Christmas is mainly, will enough snow fall in these showery opportunities, or perhaps from one more organized snowfall that comes along beyond the weekend, to last into Christmas morning? The odds on that would seem to be close to 50-50, which is a lot higher than the climatological average of perhaps 10%.

For my own weather report, we had perhaps 1-2 cms of snow in light bursts earlier today, the main heavy snowfall band is holding off to our southwest, waiting to come in later Monday. The temperature all day Sunday hovered near freezing. As I look outside, the roads are dry but a little greasy looking and there is a light dusting of snow on the grass and parked cars.

Elmo5 · 14-12-2009 11:16am

Fanastic news MT!! Snow!!!!

You are always right

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2009 1:33am

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 0030h
_____________________

Well, I try, but even if I'm not always right, I do think it will snow here and there. I envisage several different events, each covering about 30-50 per cent of the country, so sooner or later almost everyone will see some snow. There may be one or two places that don't, but each region has a better chance in one of these situations, so it could be fairly evenly distributed.

One place where I have to issue a revision is for tonight; there's enough cloud spreading in already that temperatures will likely hold above freezing in most locations, with lows of 2-4 C on average, and a cold sleety rain at times. Wouldn't be surprised if the higher slopes got some snow from that, but not down below about 500 metres a.s.l.

Weather here is cloudy, snow or sleet on the way but hasn't started yet.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2009 7:01am

Tuesday, 15 December, 2009
_____________________________

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with sleety showers, more frequent in the southwest this morning, but another batch may arrive in the east and Ulster this afternoon. Northeast winds will gust to 25-30 mph at times, making it feel rather cold, despite highs near 8 or 9 C.

TONIGHT will remain mostly cloudy and so it should stay above freezing in most areas, anywhere that clears could see fog forming and a light frost. Some of the light hail showers may continue for a while, with more arriving before morning. Lows will be about 2-4 C on average.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with heavier showers developing, these taking on a rather wintry nature by afternoon and evening, at first over higher terrain. Highs will reach about 7 C but temperatures will tend to drop a bit after any showers, with rather gusty NE winds 20-35 mph.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be colder days with a chance of snow showers mixing with the sleety or hail showers in the southeast which may see the coldest of the temperatures, as the winds swing into an easterly direction. The lows will average -1 C and the highs about +5 C on these two days, but it may feel colder due to 20-40 mph winds (stronger in the south and southeast coastal regions).

THE WEEKEND is still looking rather wintry and showery, although there are suggestions that the colder air will hold off to Sunday and Monday now, so we'll go with partly cloudy and showery, mostly rain or hail on Saturday, highs near 8 or 9 C, then hail or snow on Sunday and Monday, highs closer to 3-5 C. Overnight lows in this period will be near -1 C and frosts will be fairly frequent. I should stress, it could go either way from this projection, either colder with considerably more snow and frost, or not getting quite this cold, if the models start to backtrack on us. The indications at present are for the air mass to be over the Atlantic for 2-3 days after leaving Greenland, which gives some time for modification. Meanwhile, the outlook for beyond the weekend (and Monday) is quite uncertain, we've had a variety of suggestions and the best thing to say is to expect a slow moderating trend, but it may involve higher pressure giving sharp night frosts for a while.

The snow expected here has arrived, and seems to have turned to sleet before much accumulated. As the front is a series of waves, I expect this to continue for a day or two before we break into milder Pacific air by Wednesday.

M.T. Cranium · 16-12-2009 7:06am

Wednesday, 16 December, 2009
______________________________

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast in most places; there will be some locally icy freezing fog in some central districts at first, and also some light showers of rain or sleet drifting inland from the east coast. Despite that, most places will be dry and just a bit on the cold side, with highs of 7 to 9 C expected. Some heavier sleet showers may develop by afternoon, mostly in the southeast and parts of Ulster, and these could drop snow on higher ground, as well as bringing a slightly colder late afternoon or evening to some of these counties. Winds today will average ENE 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT will see more frequent mixed wintry showers, with some chance of snow in the higher parts of the southeast and north. It will become colder with lows in some inland parts reaching -2 C, near the coast more like +2 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be cold, wintry days with some blue sky, some passing sleet or snow showers, and a brisk east wind adding to the chill, at 20-40 mph (higher in the south and east near the coast). Morning lows will be near -3 C inland and close to zero C in coastal sections; afternoon highs will be struggling to reach 3-6 C in most areas. There could be some persistent frost in shaded rural locations.

SATURDAY will see the wind switching to the north and oddly bringing some milder air from that direction, in advance of a strong cold front; expect a partly cloudy day with a few passing showers (mixed types) and highs reaching about 7 or 8 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking quite cold again with strong NW winds at times, squally hail or snow showers this time heavier in Connacht than other parts of the country, and temperatures a little below freezing at night, a little above in the daytime (3-6 C). This spell could persist with more scattered snow accumulations mainly on hills, with the risk of a more organized period of heavier snow before Christmas. The cold air will be trying to hold on through the 24th and may last into Christmas Day before milder air returns.

Where I live, the promised snowfall turned to rain rather quickly and it has warmed up to about 4 C now, with no further sub-freezing temperatures expected and a little more rain to come. There are still a few patches of snow here and there (it never amounted to more than 2 cms).

Watch for updates if any heavier snow showers develop especially.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Comments