So Michael D IS running again!

Hurrache · 24-10-2018 8:43pm

martingriff wrote: »

So is Liadh Ni Riada take home pay of average industrial wage before or after tax

She seems to think there's different tiers of average, so it all depends on what average you're talking about.

martingriff · 24-10-2018 8:43pm

Hurrache wrote: »

She seems to think there's different tiers of average, so it all depends on what average you're talking about.

Has she opened up a can of worms for Sinn Feinn or anyone who claim they take home the average industrial wage

Hurrache · 24-10-2018 8:46pm

martingriff wrote: »

Has she opened up a can of worms for Sinn Feinn or anyone who claim they take home the average industrial wage

Absolutely. It's been one of their mantras hasn't it. But now it seems their average take home does not actually mean average. I don't think she's been the first member of SF to be caught out in taking home more than they made public.

I'm not being facetious about her talking about different tiers of average either. She genuinely said there's different tiers of average.

martingriff · 24-10-2018 8:49pm

Hurrache wrote: »

Absolutely. It's been one of their mantras hasn't it. But now it seems their average take home does not actually mean average.

I'm not being facetious about her talking about different tiers of average either. She genuinely said there's different tiers of average.

Ya did not watch the debate as I would rather watch paint but ya when I heard it this morning I was SF are wishing they picked someone else she seems to not think

humberklog · 24-10-2018 8:52pm

L1011 wrote: »

I see one, The Irish Times on the Monday morning; Thursday vote.

The islands voting mean they are always curtailed a day or two before the vote so Monday was probably the latest you could have got one anyway.

Ah, think I read this post wrong L...

Copied from AH...

Opinion Polls for 2018 & 2011. Date is the last day of polling NOT published date.

2018 https://en.m.wikipedia...ntial_election,_2018
1) 24 August
2) 16 September
3) 10 October
4) 12 October
5) 16 October

2011 https://en.m.wikipedia...ntial_election,_2011
1) Poll taken before final list of candidates confirmed.
2) No date given in Irish Times report.
3) 5 October
4) 12 October
5) 20 October
6) 21 October

Time for me to take the tin foil hat off and make sprat lures for my Mackerel fishing tomorrow.

L1011 · 24-10-2018 9:02pm

If you did want to keep the hat on; if Paddy Power had commissioned a poll showing an upset they wouldn't have reason to release it until they had covered any potential loses on the various books. But I really doubt that has happened.

The poll on Sunday started polling awkwardly early. I suspect it was a landline only one which are getting harder and harder to get numbers on and you could spend huge amounts of time trying to get all the demographics covered. RedC generate random mobile numbers to try whereas ye-olde landline only polls use known blocks of domestic phones.

Hurrache · 24-10-2018 9:02pm

No dedicated TV3 thread yet, maybe we're all fed up.

gandalf · 24-10-2018 9:09pm

Just looking at the odds on paddy power and the only surprise is that they have Casey in 2nd place. Higgins still at 1/50.....

Sycamore Tree · 24-10-2018 9:12pm

Gavin or Sean will come last. Very unlikeable men.

My name is URL · 24-10-2018 9:15pm

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Gavin or Sean will come last. Very unlikeable men.

Gavin doesn't seem all that bad. He came across pretty well in last nights debate imo

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 9:17pm

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Gavin or Sean will come last. Very unlikeable men.

You're half-right in each case.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 9:22pm

gandalf wrote: »

Just looking at the odds on paddy power and the only surprise is that they have Casey in 2nd place. Higgins still at 1/50.....

Himself and SG having swapped places in the odds since last night! You'd hardly imagine through any favours PC did himself in the debate.

On the plus side, a tighter race for second might mean none of the people that put us through all this to no purpose get their expenses back. Shame if PC in the one that does, but even by that token, supposedly he's spent the least!

Eric Cartman · 24-10-2018 9:23pm

The Maria Cahill answer out of the spinner was shameful, absolutely disgraceful 'there was wrongdoing on both sides' just apologise.

jm08 · 24-10-2018 9:25pm

alaimacerc wrote: »

Cringeworthy that Casey's got himself from his already well-deserved last-place to being third-favourite. On the strength of shamelessly bashing Travellers, quivering his little bottom lip when he was rightfully criticised for that, pretending to "consider his position" while he went on an already-planned jolly of a weekend, then "returned" to the contest. To then bash welfare claimants.

I suppose it's what Trump would call a modern-presidential style.

Eric Cartman wrote: »

The Maria Cahill answer out of the spinner was shameful, absolutely disgraceful 'there was wrongdoing on both sides' just apologise.

She did apologise and said she was willing to meet her.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 9:35pm

Patser wrote: »

Does anyone know what Higgins engagement is tonight that means he can't make the debate? He escused himself weeks ago saying his itinerary is set, so it sounds like an official engagement but anyone any idea what/where it is that it couldn't be missed?

His line is that he divided up his time in advance between "being president" time and "campaigning" time, and have those to the broadcasters (and everyone else). If the broadcasters then scheduled debates in "presidential" time, he stuck with it. And the broadcasters, conversely, have said they can't just be arranging debates entirely around one person's schedule...

Adamcp898 · 24-10-2018 9:41pm

I don't like one of these 'pitches'. I honestly don't.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 9:42pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

No, what *you* think.

Again with "my opinion is OBVIOUSLY everyone's opinion"...

I wonder how many more times I'll have to point out that no matter how obvious something seems to random person, said random person is not actually the entire Irish population.

Apparently the Caseyite "speak your brains (what little of them)" faction's theory is that everyone really does share their prejudices, but some of us (PC/SJW/other reactionary cliché here) just "virtue signal" by saying otherwise.

It's one of those theories that conveniently excuses the lack of any evidence for it.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 9:57pm

Silentcorner wrote: »

It has gone from being the most one sided race in Irish political history to being a much closer affair (if the bookies odds are anything to go by), and yet the media are not framing it that way...

Yeah, I wonder why the media aren't framing MDH's odds having shortened from 1/5, to 1/9, to 1/33, to 1/50 as "a much closer affair".

It's almost as if they're reporting the facts, and not sheer wishful thinking on the part of the over-excited partisans for one ludicrous figure. That only ended up in the race because some of the councils got a little carried away with the spirit of "well, the ones we wanted t nominate are taken, but let's pick someone, for the sake of it!"

one official poll would give us all a good indicator but strangely enough, we haven't seen a poll since Peter Casey went off message last week.

Obviously a vast conspiracy by the Evil "Liberal" Media. Or as these things are conducted over several days, and are commissioned some additional time in advance of that, poor outburst planning on Casey's part?

I have heard media commentators across the media landscape, from RTE to Newstalk, heap insult after insult on Peter Casey, it's like they don't want to accept how irrelevant they have become, or more likely, they do not want to accept how a fairly significant percentage of Irish people have nothing but disdain for Irish media or why!

Are they perhaps now the Lamestream Fake News? Or are we trying to keep the Trumpiness slightly more deniable than that?

There is a very good chance, that come Saturday morning, the Political Establishment, Irish media will get a very strong slap in the face, if they do not understand why, they run the risk of FF type irreverence over the next ten years!!

Irreverence? Subliminal plug for the blasphemy referendum, perhaps?

q85dw7osi4lebg · 24-10-2018 10:06pm

Gavin has gone from last for me to second. More or less because he hasn't done or said a thing either inspiring or controversial. A bit like MDH you could say, only younger.

Casey #1

humberklog · 24-10-2018 10:07pm

alaimacerc wrote: »

Apparently the Caseyite "speak your brains (what little of them)" faction's theory is that everyone really does share their prejudices, but some of us (PC/SJW/other reactionary cliché here) just "virtue signal" by saying otherwise.

It's one of those theories that conveniently excuses the lack of any evidence for it.

It can be a bit more nuanced than that in fairness. There's even a poster over in AH that said "Casey would only appeal to the uneducated".

I wouldn't converse with that post on line but that post (theirs, not yours) makes my protest vote, to me, important.

What's wrong with uneducated people? I wouldn't dismiss anyone's vote because they're uneducated.

And it's that stench of intellectual and status dismissiveness from the Pro Higgins/SF camp I find awful.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 10:14pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

But being disadvantaged doesn't mean you get a free pass to litter and act anti social, to harbour criminality within the community or to treat animals poorly.

I'm not aware anyone is arguing for any such "free pass". Did recognition of ethnic minority status come with an immunity badge and a slashhook-duelling permit? If so, I missed that angle.

These are charges that can be laid at many Traveller communities, not just the "small minority" pavee point would have you believe.

Communal blame is a slippery idea at best. Even if it's many, does it excuse lazy stereotyping and slurring of every Traveller? That's what Casey did. That's what you'll see a metastasised version of, if you dip into the rhetorical gutter over in After Hours. That's the very definition of prejudice.

So whose fault is it, that travellers find themselves on the margins? Surely there must be some self responsibility, because if travellers lived quietly and cleanly on the side of the road (even if they were all unemployed), I doubt many would care enough to get incensed by them.

"Living by the side of the road", quietly and cleanly or otherwise, has largely been rendered impossible. As has the "traditional, nice" Traveller lifestyle that poster was pining nostalgically for. Pretty much inevitably, I think it must be said, but you have to face up to the consequences of that.

Getting incensed may indeed be an understandable reaction, but it's counterproductive. Especially when it's getting incensed at them living itinerantly, getting incensed at them living in permanent sites, getting incensed at them becoming settled, and pretty much at any choice they make.

Not a great deal of signs of them surging ahead in banking, law, and the arts, but the precedents make me wonder if people wouldn't just get incensed about that, too.

Eric Cartman · 24-10-2018 10:14pm

alaimacerc wrote: »

I'm not aware anyone is arguing for any such "free pass". Did recognition of ethnic minority status come with an immunity badge and a slashhook-duelling permit? If so, I missed that angle.
.

No, they seem to have gotten that long ago.

Patser · 24-10-2018 10:21pm

alaimacerc wrote: »

His line is that he divided up his time in advance between "being president" time and "campaigning" time, and have those to the broadcasters (and everyone else). If the broadcasters then scheduled debates in "presidential" time, he stuck with it. And the broadcasters, conversely, have said they can't just be arranging debates entirely around one person's schedule...

I edited my post earlier to show that he was actually at music event in Donegal with supporters after campaigning. It's not exactly Presidential duties, it was a campaign session that could easily been deferred.

Edit: To show link again

https://donegalnews.com/2018/10/mich...s-in-bundoran/

He was also at another supporter event in Leitrim earlier in day

feargale · 24-10-2018 10:21pm

martingriff wrote: »

So is Liadh Ni Riada take home pay of average industrial wage before or after tax

The crucial point is that whatever salary Sinn Féin representatives have foregone has gone not to the public purse but to the Sinn Féin coffers. Given the song and dance that they have made of this, and their self-congratulation, the clear implication of this is that the interests of Sinn Féin coincide with the national interest. Surprise, surprise! What has changed? Translate that to a time when they govern us and the Constitution may need to be reformed on Soviet lines:

In 1936, for the first time a Soviet constitution specifically mentioned the role of the Communist Party. Article 126 portrayed the Party as a "vanguard of the working people in their struggle to strengthen and develop the socialist system and representing the leading core of all organizations of the working people, both public and state".This provision was used to justify banning all other parties from functioning in the Soviet Union.

Hotblack Desiato · 24-10-2018 10:22pm

martingriff wrote: »

Ya did not watch the debate as I would rather watch paint but ya when I heard it this morning I was SF are wishing they picked someone else she seems to not think

I think she's wishing they picked someone else too.

Hotblack Desiato · 24-10-2018 10:24pm

Patser wrote: »

I edited my post earlier to show that he was actually at music event in Donegal with supporters after campaigning. It's not exactly Presidential duties, it was a campaign session that could easily been deferred.

Why though? How many debates are needed?

If TV stations decided to have 20 debates, should candidates have to attend them all?

I only dipped in and out of tonight's one (had it on mute most of the time) but the format looked lightweight as fluff.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 10:25pm

humberklog wrote: »

It can be a bit more nuanced than that in fairness. There's even a poster over in AH that said "Casey would only appeal to the uneducated".

I wouldn't converse with that post on line but that post (theirs, not yours) makes my protest vote, to me, important.

What's wrong with uneducated people? I wouldn't dismiss anyone's vote because they're uneducated.

And it's that stench of intellectual and status dismissiveness from the Pro Higgins/SF camp I find awful.

Why is Higgins/SF one camp? Two different candidates, by my count. And the other two don't-call-us-dwagons and the mini-Dana was pretty critical of Casey too, to be fair to them.

I didn't see that comment -- only so much AH I can stand, for the good my blood pressure. And I'd neither agree with it not condone it. Firstly, anti-Traveller sentiment goes a looooong way up the socio-economic scale. I've heard it many times in company that would be shocked and aghast of someone made similarly crass comment about gay people, women, "visible" ethnic minorities, etc.

Secondly, while I think education is a wonderful thing, it's pretty sneery to dismiss people that have had less access to it, often through no fault of their own. Indeed, it's one of the keys -- possibly the key -- to intergenerational disadvantage, and how it might be addressed. The Traveller community being a case in point.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 10:27pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

No, they seem to have gotten that long ago.

The prejudices of some "seem" to be getting harder and harder to parody, these days.

circular flexing · 24-10-2018 10:28pm

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Why though? How many debates are needed?

If TV stations decided to have 20 debates, should candidates have to attend them all?

I only dipped in and out of tonight's one (had it on mute most of the time) but the format looked lightweight as fluff.

Remember that debates only came a long in 2011 - they are a complete invention of the TV3 generation and basically a way to try and generate controversy where there is none.

Silentcorner · 24-10-2018 10:29pm

alaimacerc wrote: »

Yeah, I wonder why the media aren't framing MDH's odds having shortened from 1/5, to 1/9, to 1/33, to 1/50 as "a much closer affair".

It's almost as if they're reporting the facts, and not sheer wishful thinking on the part of the over-excited partisans for one ludicrous figure. That only ended up in the race because some of the councils got a little carried away with the spirit of "well, the ones we wanted t nominate are taken, but let's pick someone, for the sake of it!"

Obviously a vast conspiracy by the Evil "Liberal" Media. Or as these things are conducted over several days, and are commissioned some additional time in advance of that, poor outburst planning on Casey's part?

Are they perhaps now the Lamestream Fake News? Or are we trying to keep the Trumpiness slightly more deniable than that?

Irreverence? Subliminal plug for the blasphemy referendum, perhaps?

Reporting facts!!! I love people who have an ingrained trust in media...it reminds me of my youth!

An official poll would shut me up...can you post a link to the latest one?

Patser · 24-10-2018 10:30pm

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Why though? How many debates are needed?

If TV stations decided to have 20 debates, should candidates have to attend them all?

I only dipped in and out of tonight's one (had it on mute most of the time) but the format looked lightweight as fluff.

There were a grand total of 4 debates scheduled. Not exactly overload. And you can't argue that the debates (especially 2nd one with Pat Kenny - where Casey didn't back down) didn't have a big impact on the campaign in general.

Is it fair that the Incumbent can simply skip out on one of the few debates to go to meet fans, and so not face the level of scrutiny others had to tonight?

Edit: Just to add, look at the impact the final debate had in 2011. Imagine if Sean Gallagher had simply gone to a pub that night, how history might have changed.

An Ciarraioch · 24-10-2018 10:33pm

So, anything earth-shattering to report from tonight's debate?

circular flexing · 24-10-2018 10:34pm

Patser wrote: »

There were a grand total of 4 debates scheduled. Not exactly overload. And you can't argue that the debates (especially 2nd one with Pat Kenny - where Casey didn't back down) didn't have a big impact on the campaign in general.

Is it fair that the Incumbent can simply skip out on one of the few debates to go to meet fans, and so not face the level of scrutiny others had to tonight?

If "debates" are going to be a new norm then there should be some kind of commission for them (like they have in the US) where agreement is reached between candidates and broadcasters in terms of scheduling.

Graniteville · 24-10-2018 10:36pm

martingriff wrote: »

So is Liadh Ni Riada take home pay of average industrial wage before or after tax

Average industrial wage before tax is €47k,

All shinners take 47k AFTER Tax.

I would assume that her husband has kept his tax free allowance which means that to get to her 47k net take home pay, she'd need to be earning about €78k before tax.

Then you have the tens of thousands of unvouched expenses.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 10:39pm

Silentcorner wrote: »

Reporting facts!!! I love people who have an ingrained trust in media...it reminds me of my youth!

You pointed to the odds changing. I pointed out they'd consistently changed... in the exact opposite direction from your claims. Straight from the bookies mouth, no "ingrained trust" required, 100% verification. Media 1, you -1.

What I miss from my youth is that people not just writing complete nonsense, providing no evidence at all for it, and then when evidence to the contrary is provided, exclaiming "vast conspiracy!", as if everyone else were the credulous fools.

An official poll would shut me up...can you post a link to the latest one?

Google it. I already answered your point, pointing out they were scheduled in advance, not to suit the whims of your candidate.

Patser · 24-10-2018 10:39pm

circular flexing wrote: »

If "debates" are going to be a new norm then there should be some kind of commission for them (like they have in the US) where agreement is reached between candidates and broadcasters in terms of scheduling.

Agreed, that makes sense. Also as David Norris suggested, during the campaign the President steps aside from the role, and does not have ceremonial, presidential duties to attend to.

Again though tonight's schedule from Higgins seems to have been entirely campaign orientated, and I've no doubt if it was a the main RTE debate tonight, he would have made it.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 10:40pm

Patser wrote: »

There were a grand total of 4 debates scheduled. Not exactly overload.

Also a (rather shambolic) radio debate, on which MDH did appear.

McMurphy · 24-10-2018 10:42pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

So, anything earth-shattering to report from tonight's debate?

Higgins feared a roasting from Yates and so never bothered his barney togging out, and was quite rightly called out for it
.

Apart from that, not much.

humberklog · 24-10-2018 10:43pm

alaimacerc wrote: »

Why is Higgins/SF one camp?

Candidates from from the main parties.

Silentcorner · 24-10-2018 10:49pm

alaimacerc wrote: »

You pointed to the odds changing. I pointed out they'd consistently changed... in the exact opposite direction from your claims. Straight from the bookies mouth, no "ingrained trust" required, 100% verification. Media 1, you -1.

What I miss from my youth is that people not just writing complete nonsense, providing no evidence at all for it, and then when evidence to the contrary is provided, exclaiming "vast conspiracy!", as if everyone else were the credulous fools.

Google it. I already answered your point, pointing out they were scheduled in advance, not to suit the whims of your candidate.

Impressive self awareness there, I can see what I'm dealing with.

The story of this one sided race, is that the candidate who was trailing everyone in the field, is now probably 2nd, (perhaps in view of sensitivities I should have framed it that way initially) we don't know, not you or I, which is unusual, at this point we would have a poll to help us, in 2011 how many polls did we have in the last week....the most important week in the 6 week campaign...but we don't, do you think that there is no polling at all in the field? In the last week of an election...

Patser · 24-10-2018 10:50pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

So, anything earth-shattering to report from tonight's debate?

Ivan Yates should be President, tore a few of them apart:

Called Higgins a pompous poet and slagged others for being so crap they couldn't take him on.

Caught Casey out on how much is the dole? 5 awkward seconds of silence, followed by an 'I don't know'. All others equally quiet, and equally lost when asked price of milk.

Ni Riada badly embarrassed again about her wages, as they had the figures for her unvouched expenses to add on now.

Gallagher very subdued again, Duffy actually likeable and joining in the banter. Freeman victim of lot of slagging.

Debate was only 45 minutes long (with ad breaks as well) and actually well worth a watch, as quite funny at times.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 11:18pm

Patser wrote: »

Ni Riada badly embarrassed again about her wages, as they had the figures for her unvouched expenses to add on now.

Loved the way she converted it back to per-month, as if over a four grand unvouched sounds any better that way. Confirms she draws the whole amount down, but has to "top it up" from her after-tax salary. That Enniscorthy office must be the most palatial establishment place in the town!

Freeman victim of lot of slagging.

Righteously!

Debate was only 45 minutes long (with ad breaks as well) and actually well worth a watch, as quite funny at times.

It's on for 1h15, what happens at the end? Extended drum solo?

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 11:22pm

Silentcorner wrote: »

Impressive self awareness there, I can see what I'm dealing with.

Likewise, I'm sure.

The story of this one sided race, [...]

Is that it's getting more one-sided, on the basis of the bookies odds. You claimed it was getting less, on that exact basis. That make enough sense for you yet?

Silentcorner · 24-10-2018 11:29pm

alaimacerc wrote: »

Likewise, I'm sure.

Is that it's getting more one-sided, on the basis of the bookies odds. You claimed it was getting less, on that exact basis. That make enough sense for you yet?

Can you please provide proof of that please. Do you have polling that suggests that MDH has increased his lead since the last poll, which had Higgins on 68% ...you are too slick to be just making this up as you go along!

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 11:45pm

Silentcorner wrote: »

Can you please provide proof of that please.

Refer back to the bookies odds over time. You know, the thing you specifically made the claim about. Not sure if they archive it on their respective websites, but you'll find people quoting them contemporaneously quoting them here.

Do you have polling that suggests that MDH has increased his lead since the last poll, which had Higgins on 68% ...you are too slick to be just making this up as you go along!

Polling evidence since the last poll. Not sure you quite thought that one through. How many meals have you had since your last meal?

You seem to be confusing "bookies odds", the thing you made the claim about, with "polls", the thing you'd like to talk about now that you've been revealed to be spoofing utterly. Funny, that.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 11:47pm

alaimacerc wrote: »

It's on for 1h15, what happens at the end? Extended drum solo?

Caught up with it now... apparently it's what they self-describe as an "even worse panel after the break".

I do hate to agree with Ian O'Doherty on anything, but "ramshackle" is a pretty apt description.

alaimacerc · 24-10-2018 11:48pm

humberklog wrote: »

Candidates from from the main parties.

Higgins is a self-nominee, and independent and member of no party since his first election.

FrancieBrady · 24-10-2018 11:55pm

alaimacerc wrote: »

Caught up with it now... apparently it's what they self-describe as an "even worse panel after the break".

I do hate to agree with Ian O'Doherty on anything, but "ramshackle" is a pretty apt description.

It completely fell apart tbh. They all know the game is up.

Silentcorner · 25-10-2018 12:03am

alaimacerc wrote: »

Refer back to the bookies odds over time. You know, the thing you specifically made the claim about. Not sure if they archive it on their respective websites, but you'll find people quoting them contemporaneously quoting them here.

Polling evidence since the last poll. Not sure you quite thought that one through. How many meals have you had since your last meal?

You seem to be confusing "bookies odds", the thing you made the claim about, with "polls", the thing you'd like to talk about now that you've been revealed to be spoofing utterly. Funny, that.

I am not a betting man, so I don't understand the impact a rise or decline in support in a poll would have on bookies odds, a poll indicating a sudden and dramatic rise in support for candidate A would lead to a shortening of their odds I would imagine, would it not....in the absence of polls in the last 10 days of a national election, not you or I can predict what levels of support exist for either candidate.

Also, and bear in mind I am not a betting man, but I would imagine bookies odds would shorten in a race like this the closer we get to polling day, therefore, in the absence of official polls, or in the absence of a tweetgate type incident, Higgins, the clear leader's odds would naturally shorten...again, feel free to yet again accuse me of utter spoof...your kind are like that!

alaimacerc · 25-10-2018 1:50am

Silentcorner wrote: »

I am not a betting man, so I don't understand the impact a rise or decline in support in a poll would have on bookies odds, a poll indicating a sudden and dramatic rise in support for candidate A would lead to a shortening of their odds I would imagine, would it not....in the absence of polls in the last 10 days of a national election, not you or I can predict what levels of support exist for either candidate.

You're a bit late pleading lack of knowledge of betting as any sort of excuse, having made a claim expressly about that. Let me remind you of the statement I put you right on:

Silentcorner wrote: »

It has gone from being the most one sided race in Irish political history to being a much closer affair (if the bookies odds are anything to go by), and yet the media are not framing it that way...

If the bookies odds are anything to go by, exactly the reverse is the case. Are we clear on that yet? If you keep yes-but-no-butting and banging on about polls to deflect from that, perhaps not, but I suspect you're the only one you're fooling at this point.

Also, and bear in mind I am not a betting man, but I would imagine bookies odds would shorten in a race like this the closer we get to polling day, therefore, in the absence of official polls, or in the absence of a tweetgate type incident, Higgins, the clear leader's odds would naturally shorten...again, feel free to yet again accuse me of utter spoof...your kind are like that!

He's the clear leader, the odds are shortening, but somehow it's "a much closer affair"? On what basis? Yer man Casey joining the arm-wrestle for a distant second place, and making it even more distant in the process? Even what you "imagine" doesn't even remotely add up, even on its own terms.

And what "kind" is that, exactly? Even your insults seems decidedly schematic at this point. The "kind" that doesn't believe in sketchy conspiracy theories at the drop of a hat? It's a fair cop.

So Michael D IS running again!

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