new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

jackboy · 28-01-2020 11:55pm

Not sure how serious this virus will turn out to be.

One thing is clear from the response, the world is utterly unprepared and unable to deal with an outbreak of a serious highly infectious virus.

wakka12 · 28-01-2020 11:56pm

Duke of Url wrote: »

If you are going to pretend to do research then at least make an effort.

The US flu mortality rate includes cases where flu causes other illnesses to worsen and lead to death, while China only counts people who die directly from flu," an observer who prefers to be anonymous told the Global Times.

The statistical methods used by the Chinese CDC should be revised, as deaths from pneumonia caused by the flu, for example, are not counted, the observer said.

Observers called for an improved statistical approach, and encouraged the public to get an annual flu shot.

An analysis led by Chinese scientists published in The Lancet Public Health in September 2019 found that there were 84,200 to 92,000 flu-related deaths in China each year, accounting for 8.2 percent of all deaths from respiratory diseases.

Well there were earlier reports that similarly for coronavirus in China there were inaccurate recordings of deaths, and that many deaths were counted as pneumonia. So surely this balances out then.

wakka12 · 28-01-2020 11:57pm

jackboy wrote: »

Not sure how serious this virus will turn out to be.

One thing is clear from the response, the world is utterly unprepared and unable to deal with an outbreak of a serious highly infectious virus.

How do you ever prepare for something like this? I think the world has reacted shockingly quickly and effectively considering how quickly it spreads

Call Me Jimmy · 28-01-2020 11:58pm

hmmm wrote: »

The jump was over a thousand yesterday, so if anything it's getting better as the number of infections detected is decreasing. Whether the figures are right or wrong is a different matter, but let's try and keep the thread reasonably factual?

Aye, but if that was the official Hubei province reporting and that represents all their cases, why do they update a few mins later with 50 more?

hmmm · 28-01-2020 11:59pm

jackboy wrote: »

One thing is clear from the response, the world is utterly unprepared and unable to deal with an outbreak of a serious highly infectious virus.

What response? The bit where the WHO is not panicking, or the bit where the virus was sequenced and distributed worldwide, or the bit where infected travelers are being picked up and tested, or the bit where the only H2H infections outside China were immediately tracked back to a source, or the bit where three different companies are already tasked with developing a vaccine?

Because that all looks pretty good to me.

jackboy · 29-01-2020 12:01am

wakka12 wrote: »

How do you ever prepare for something like this? I think the world has reacted shockingly quickly and effectively considering how quickly it spreads

There at least needs to be a plan that all nations will implement simultaneously.

hmmm · 29-01-2020 12:02am

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Aye, but if that was the official Hubei province reporting and that represents all their cases, why do they update a few mins later with 50 more?

I think you're mixing up the number of new cases & the number of critical cases (899) reported.

The chan chan man · 29-01-2020 12:03am

hmmm wrote: »

What response? The bit where the WHO is not panicking, or the bit where the virus was sequenced and distributed worldwide, or the bit where infected travelers are being picked up and tested, or the bit where the only H2H infections outside China were immediately tracked back to a source, or the bit where three different companies are already tasked with developing a vaccine?

Because that all looks pretty good to me.

Is there a conspiracy theory here that I’ve missed?

Call Me Jimmy · 29-01-2020 12:03am

hmmm wrote: »

I think you're mixing up the number of new cases & the number of critical cases (899) reported.

D'oh!

Duke of Url · 29-01-2020 12:10am

With the WHO stepping in things will get a lot more visible.

I know it’s currently too early to say but we should find out soon enough about the time of recovery which is not being released with real data.

fritzelly · 29-01-2020 12:16am

hmmm wrote: »

The jump was over a thousand yesterday, so if anything it's getting better as the number of infections detected is decreasing. Whether the figures are right or wrong is a different matter, but let's try and keep the thread reasonably factual?

Not talking about detections
Yesterday was around 700 serious /critical, now it's over 1100. More than a 50% increase

Nijmegen · 29-01-2020 12:19am

Like another poster above, company getting into contingency planning now. Have tried several of the usual suppliers and all are already out of face masks in the UK and Ireland. Interesting.

theguzman · 29-01-2020 12:21am

Nijmegen wrote: »

Like another poster above, company getting into contingency planning now. Have tried several of the usual suppliers and all are already out of face masks in the UK and Ireland. Interesting.

My local chemist was out of facemasks this evening also.

bb12 · 29-01-2020 12:23am

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/white-house-discussing-china-travel-restrictions-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html

29-01-2020 12:24am

https://twitter.com/k_kiumbe/status/1222255601838907392?s=21

A doctor who was treating patients affected by the Coronavirus has sadly died. it is a virus that attacks both upper and lower airways in a fair few of its victims, which us making it more serious than most fairly easily spread viruses. We have to remember too that our own immune systems can hyper-react to certain viruses and lead to a cytokine storm with fluid pouring into our lungs and other deadly effects on our organs.

theguzman · 29-01-2020 12:25am

bb12 wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/white-house-discussing-china-travel-restrictions-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html

Smart move and what should be done is just revoke access for all Chinese Passports temporarily.

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 12:25am

According to the World Health Organisation, 16-21 per cent of people with the virus in China became severely ill and 2-3 per cent of those infected have died.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/119116414/how-contagious-is-the-wuhan-coronavirus-does-it-spread-with-no-symptoms

ceadaoin. · 29-01-2020 12:36am

Nijmegen wrote: »

Like another poster above, company getting into contingency planning now. Have tried several of the usual suppliers and all are already out of face masks in the UK and Ireland. Interesting.

Ive read there are a few reasons for this, supplies are being sent to Chinese hospitals, people are buying them in bulk to resell them for a profit and obviously some people have stocked up just in case. I dont think its anything super sinister tbh.

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/119116414/how-contagious-is-the-wuhan-coronavirus-does-it-spread-with-no-symptoms

16-21 percent of those seeking medical care and who were tested. How many have mild infections not requiring intervention and have therefore not been tested? It's still too early to know the exact numbers as the situation constantly evolves.

29-01-2020 12:46am

circadian wrote: »

Thanks for the insight.

Despite spending extensive time in China (including Xi'an, snap!) I've never needed to see a doctor or receive treatment. Friends of mine were in Chengdu and had to go to hospital and they said the care was excellent but like you said it can vary wildly.

Without a doubt medical training in Ireland and standards in general are very high, it's the ability for the service to be effective is the problem. That doesn't fall on the medical staff, who I have the upmost respect for but it does fall on those running the HSE.

I've lived in Xi'an, Chongqing, Harbin, Dalian and Shenzhen. A little bit of time in both Beijing and Tianjin but that was pretty minor. Most of my time is split between Xi'an and Chongqing though.

I've had a few small issues in China but I went to the Military hospital in Xi'an when it was urgent, and went to HK when it wasn't. However, you can see part of the problems when you go for your yearly visa medical checkups... Nowadays, they've been moved to specialised clinics, but previously, they weren't. I've also taught in two medical universities, and I wouldn't be happy getting any of their graduates as my Doctor.

But mostly I'm basing this on foreign friends who are married to Chinese women, and talk about the experience of having kids, or the various operations their kids had to endure.

Nijmegen · 29-01-2020 12:53am

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Ive read there are a few reasons for this, supplies are being sent to Chinese hospitals, people are buying them in bulk to resell them for a profit and obviously some people have stocked up just in case. I dont think its anything super sinister tbh.

I mean it’s interesting in a “Wisdom of crowds” kind of way. Also worth pointing out that supplies you’d want if it did become serious will go fast or already be gone by the time we cotton on (and thinking that in turn drives panic buying.... bad circle).

Company has a lot of public facing and deals with travellers from affected areas as part of the business. I was surprised at the level of step up in planning that is going into effect. Basically the assumption from the top echelons is to operate on the basis it will escalate at the potential cost of owning a few more hand sanitizers than you otherwise would, but also looking more seriously at things like telephones etc in case a lot of people have to work from quarantined homes etc. I have been chatting to others in other orgs now moving up into similar stages of prep.

Rhys Essien · 29-01-2020 3:32am

This video has got me a bit scared.

https://youtu.be/oFlOkkmXS54

EthelSouthern · 29-01-2020 3:39am

Hope they would find a cure and stop this fear of mess.

bodhrandude · 29-01-2020 4:18am

Rhys Essien wrote: »

This video has got me a bit scared.

https://youtu.be/oFlOkkmXS54

That's pretty creepy stuff alright, the amount of things he lists you need is WTF!

Kermit.de.frog · 29-01-2020 4:26am

Personally, I think the evacuation of foreign nationals in the containment zones is a mistake.

You don't quarantine cities containing 10's of millions of people without a very serious reason for doing so. Needless to say the full story is not public here.

Everyone within the limit of the quarantine should remain there until some measurable semblance of control and subsidence is achieved.

It's too risky.

tonysopprano · 29-01-2020 4:28am

Yanks are evacuating their citizens to Alaska, where they will be quarantined

Kermit.de.frog · 29-01-2020 4:30am

National Children's Hospital Wuhan hospital construction live

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypti_cB0JTc

at1withmyself · 29-01-2020 6:27am

tonysopprano wrote: »

Yanks are evacuating their citizens to Alaska, where they will be quarantined

...to refuel the plane and then onto a military base in california to be quarantined...

Kermit.de.frog · 29-01-2020 7:24am

First coronavirus case reported in United Arab Emirates
The first case of coronavirus in the United Arab Emirates – and thus the Middle East region – has been confirmed by state media, according to Reuters.

The state-run news agency WAM announced the case earlier today, citing the UAE health ministry.

According to the report, the person had been in Wuhan, but did not provide any further information.

First suspected coronavirus case in Tibet
Tibet, the last place on China’s mainland that had not recorded a case of coronavirus, has now reported its first suspected case. A 34-year-old man who travel to Tibet by train from Wuhan has been placed in quarantine.

..

Wanderer78 · 29-01-2020 7:27am

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

National Children's Hospital Wuhan hospital construction live

Maybe that's where the bulk of the 3bn went to, that would make sense!

Nijmegen · 29-01-2020 9:01am

British Airways has suspended all flights to and from China till the end of February. I imagine a few more will follow like that. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-britain-ba-idUKKBN1ZS0OD

igCorcaigh · 29-01-2020 9:52am

The economic effects of this could be huge.

odyssey06 · 29-01-2020 9:54am

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The economic effects of this could be huge.

Already starting...

"Coronavirus fears hit global shares and oil price"
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51262450

ednwireland · 29-01-2020 9:56am

Nijmegen wrote: »

British Airways has suspended all flights to and from China till the end of February. I imagine a few more will follow like that. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-britain-ba-idUKKBN1ZS0OD

probably no-one on them

Ficheall · 29-01-2020 10:19am

Came back through Birmingham yesterday, forgetting that a significant portion of the population is Chinese. Some guy there who came back from Wuhan with a flu at the start of the year is being tested. Time to stock the larder when I get home.. ðŸ€”

Nijmegen · 29-01-2020 10:28am

ednwireland wrote: »

probably no-one on them

Except people trying to get out... I wouldn’t be surprised if a few expats wake up now with the idea that their route out might be shutting down. As it is you can’t get out of China by land to a number of countries.

29-01-2020 10:42am

Nijmegen wrote: »

Except people trying to get out... I wouldn’t be surprised if a few expats wake up now with the idea that their route out might be shutting down. As it is you can’t get out of China by land to a number of countries.

Very few foreigners ever travel by land from China to another country, so it's not a big deal.

And this fear of becoming stuck is being overhyped in many ways. Turkish airlines is still flying from Xi'an direct to many European cities. As are Beijing capital airlines. And that's without counting the airlines like KLM who have longer routes.

I suspect we will see some of them shut down eventually but other routes will remain open.

volchitsa · 29-01-2020 10:56am

Deleted User wrote: »

Very few foreigners ever travel by land from China to another country, so it's not a big deal.

From Hong Kong to mainland China is not uncommon though, that's how we were mean to be going there next month. Seems like it's out of the question now, with the border possibly being closed, but the airlines, including Chinese ones are only refunding for what they call mainland China. So much for one country, eh?

clever user name · 29-01-2020 11:33am

Things starting to get a bit more troublesome here (in Xi'an) in terms of day to day stuff. Buses are gone, the subway is still open (for now), but they've closed a bunch of the exits (weird). Need to show your ID when taking the subway (made this mistake yesterday lol). They're also checking peoples temperatures at the entrances. Didi is gone, China's version of Uber/Hailo. That means taxis are pretty busy and not easy to get. Shops/supermarkets are ok at the moment for most things, but it's harder to find bread and vegetables. I spent an hour today looking for onions, didn't find them. There goes my plans to make a nice stew :pac:. Masks? HA, good luck finding one of them. Most restaurants are closed. While this is not entirely unusual given it's still the New Year holiday, it's still far more than the norm. Talk of shops and supermarkets being replenished in the coming days, we'll see about that. All of this seems to be pretty much standard for most parts of China now. Government is urging places to close to help stop the spread.

So not tooooooo many issues at the moment, most people are just staying inside. Things will no doubt get worse in the short term. Long term, who knows. Hopefully things start to at least take a turn for the better in the next 3/4? weeks

Ann22 · 29-01-2020 11:41am

A team of scientists in Australia says it has successfully developed a lab-grown version of coronavirus, the first to be recreated outside of China, in a breakthrough that could help combat the global spread of the illness.

The researchers at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity in Melbourne said they would share the sample, which was grown from an infected patient, with the World Health Organization and laboratories around the world.

A laboratory in China had successfully grown the virus but had released only the genome sequence, not the sample itself, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

"Having the real virus means we now have the ability to actually validate and verify all test methods, and compare their sensitivities and specificities", the Doherty Institute's virus identification laboratory head, Julian Druce, said in a statement.

Dr Julian Druce announced the coronavirus breakthrough

"The virus will be used as positive control material for the Australian network of public health laboratories, and also shipped to expert laboratories working closely with the World Health Organization in Europe."

The flu-like virus broke out in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year and has killed 132 people, infected thousands more and spread to more than a dozen other countries.

It spreads in droplets from coughs and sneezes and has an incubation period of up to 14 days.

The Australia-grown virus sample would be used to generate an antibody test, which would allow detection of the virus in patients who had not shown symptoms, as well as contributing to the creation of a vaccine, the institute said.

The virus was grown from a patient who had arrived at the institute on 24 January, it added.

The Peter Doherty Institute is a joint venture of the University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital.

© RTÉ 2020

29-01-2020 11:54am

volchitsa wrote: »

From Hong Kong to mainland China is not uncommon though, that's how we were mean to be going there next month. Seems like it's out of the question now, with the border possibly being closed, but the airlines, including Chinese ones are only refunding for what they call mainland China. So much for one country, eh?

HK is part of China now, so it's not a "country". Even before, going from Shenzhen to HK wasn't a big deal, and hardly considered to be going to another country.

When talking about land travel from China, people usually talk about the immediate neighbors like Russia, or India. Land travel is rare because it takes forever considering the poor infrastructure and lack of dense populations near the border areas.

Air travel has always been the most common way of getting to and from Mainland China, with sea travel (cruises) coming up second.

pc7 · 29-01-2020 11:58am

[QUOTE=clever user name;112385061 Shops/supermarkets are ok at the moment for most things, but it's harder to find bread and vegetables. I spent an hour today looking for onions, didn't find them. [/QUOTE]

Could you do a huge shop and get ingredients to make bread? Oat bread even? just to tie you over. Must be quite nerve wracking, stay safe.

29-01-2020 11:59am

clever user name wrote: »

So not tooooooo many issues at the moment, most people are just staying inside. Things will no doubt get worse in the short term. Long term, who knows. Hopefully things start to at least take a turn for the better in the next 3/4? weeks

From what I've heard, everyone is waiting for the weather to heat up, and until then, everything is going to be shut down. So.. another month and a bit before any useful amount of heat.

I'd recommend getting out. While the Chinese can manage the various hoops to jump through, and have the network of contacts to gain knowledge of where to get food, foreigners will be left out of the loop. I wouldn't want to be stuck in Xi'an during the whole period.

pc7 · 29-01-2020 12:05pm

Klaz are you going to leave for a bit?

bb12 · 29-01-2020 12:06pm

Irish people now being advised to avoid 'all non-essential travel' to China due to coronavirus

https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-advice-travelling-coronavirus-china-4984300-Jan2020/

29-01-2020 12:08pm

pc7 wrote: »

Klaz are you going to leave for a bit?

Leave? I'm back in Ireland now. Returned last Thursday. Originally planned for just a month, but my university has announced that the next semester won't be starting on schedule, so I'll likely stay out until a green light is given.

pc7 · 29-01-2020 12:12pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Leave? I'm back in Ireland now. Returned last Thursday. Originally planned for just a month, but my university has announced that the next semester won't be starting on schedule, so I'll likely stay out until a green light is given.

Oh that's great, good you are home. Hopefully your friends and colleagues over there manage to stay well.

Oranage2 · 29-01-2020 12:37pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

HK is part of China now, so it's not a "country". Even before, going from Shenzhen to HK wasn't a big deal, and hardly considered to be going to another country.

When talking about land travel from China, people usually talk about the immediate neighbors like Russia, or India. Land travel is rare because it takes forever considering the poor infrastructure and lack of dense populations near the border areas.

Air travel has always been the most common way of getting to and from Mainland China, with sea travel (cruises) coming up second.

Shenzhen to HK is like leaving a country, you need an exit stamp from Chinese immigration and if your visa is single entry you can't return to mainland China, also you can't just go from Hong Kong to shenzhen without a Chinese visa. There are immigration borders there.

29-01-2020 12:44pm

Oranage2 wrote: »

Shenzhen to HK is like leaving a country, you need an exit stamp from Chinese immigration and if your visa is single entry you can't return to mainland China, also you can't just go from Hong Kong to shenzhen without a Chinese visa. There are immigration borders there.

Fine. Whatever. I've lived in Shenzhen, and visited HK every day or second day while I was there. Not like going to a different country, but I don't think it's a particularly important point for this thread.

at1withmyself · 29-01-2020 12:49pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Fine. Whatever. I've lived in Shenzhen, and visited HK every day or second day while I was there. Not like going to a different country, but I don't think it's a particularly important point for this thread.

It is exactly like going to a different country. A Chinese national needs a visa to visit Hong Kong and a non Chinese person going from Hong Kong to China needs a visa, hence the double visa checks. That is pretty much what's involved when moving between countries.

29-01-2020 12:50pm

okie dokie.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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