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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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first off lets talk about the snow risk, once again I have to say the GFS always makes these charts look like major snow events, when in reality most of them are showers.
Monday 10th looks fairly wintry, particularly across the west and north. Wouldn't be much snow in the east from this, similar to most westerlies.
Tuesday 11th see's any snow quickly turning back to rain.
Tuesday night/Wednedsday morning sees widespread heavy rain across the country and milder.
Wednesday 12th see's the cold air back and widespread wintryness across the country. This is 8 days away so do not take this seriously at all. But if this came off there would be large dumpings of snow from Sligo to Louth, patchy coverings everywhere else.
Wintry showers afterwards, most of them in the north and west. These turn to rain as milder air moves in Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Looks fairly wintry overall but it wouldn't be like an easterly or notherly, there would be spells of rain and warm sectors mixed up in it with best chance of lying snow on high ground in the west and north, but everywhere would stand a chance of at least seeing some flakes fall on to wet ground.0 -
now lets talk about those temperatures.
Monday 10th sees a rather cold day, cold enough for showers to turn wintry. Looks milder on the west coast where showers would probably stay as rain, but 2 to 4C across most of the country.
Tuesday 11th see's milder air moving in turning any wintryness to rain, however the mild struggles to get into Leinster and Ulster.
Wednesday 12th is colder again, especially across the east and north with milder air heading back in towards the west.
Windchill is similar to last nights charts, showing a bitterly feeling 3 day period with windchill as low as -9C, particularly over high ground, so it's going to feel very raw indeed.
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The wind speeds are now more conservative than what was showing last night, but still fairly strong, these may still produce a red warning, but would not be nearly as bad as what was showing last night.
Sunday 9th February see's strong winds, particularly in coastal areas with speeds of up to 90km/h, more like 70km/h inland, especially early on, winds die away as the day goes on.
Monday 10th will be a windy day, but nothing serious, wind speeds generally between 35 and 60km/h.
The big day itself, Tuesday 11th of February. Most of the day is grand, not too windy, but the storm approaches from the south-west later in the evening, after dark.
During Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is when winds will be at their strongest, crossing the country with wind speeds between 90km/h and 140km/h. The north of the country doesn't look as bad as the southern two thirds of the country.
12th of February still looks incredibly windy especially in the Dublin area with the storm shifting across into the central belt of the UK, then southeastwards towards London and south east. Wind speeds dying off very quickly in the afternoon as the storm clears.
Again I expect this to change alot over the coming week. We have already seen a downgrade since last night and I expect more to follow.0 -
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We know what the GFS is like with these sorts of things but jeez, that is a proper chilly polar maritime northwesterly. Coldest I've seen in a while with thickness sub 518 dam and 850hPa temps going as low as -6 to -9C.
Definitely more threats for a wider risk of wintry outbreaks across the country with this compared to the late January northwesterly. I'd expect a tone down in the cold after this run.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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At 10 days out this storm appears. All very unstable. It's going to be a weather forecast courtesy of D'Unbelievables next week.
'wind, rain, sleet, sun, snow, hail' etc. All we're missing is a forest fire and conditions conducive to the appearance of 'the black beetle'!0 -
indeed the latest GFS is now a major downgrade for the storm. It is now tracking much further north with the north of Scotland taking the burnt of the storm. It will still be windy but as of the latest run, we are out of the danger zone. However there is another major storm appearing for around the 14th/15th of February.
Even with big downgrades, next week is looking very unsettled and windy generally.
Another potential storm waiting around the 14th/15th of February.
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Those kind of thicknesses would suggest very little north Atlantic modification and would mean A Lot of heavy snow showers especially out westsryanbruen wrote: »We know what the GFS is like with these sorts of things but jeez, that is a proper chilly polar maritime northwesterly. Coldest I've seen in a while with thickness sub 518 dam and 850hPa temps going as low as -6 to -9C.
Definitely more threats for a wider risk of wintry outbreaks across the country with this compared to the late January northwesterly. I'd expect a tone down in the cold after this run.
Digging out the car snow, a rare happening from that direction but it has happened before
The air from cloud to ground would be cold enough for to maintain the snow
Normally I'd be looking for - 10 uppers but not needed
The lapse rate plus low pressure and 516 dam growing the snow showers
Interesting stuff0 -
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Those kind of thicknesses would suggest very little north Atlantic modification and would mean A Lot of heavy snow showers especially out west
Digging out the car snow, a rare happening from that direction but it has happened before
The air from cloud to ground would be cold enough for to maintain the snow
Normally I'd be looking for - 10 uppers but not needed
The lapse rate plus low pressure and 516 dam growing the snow showers
Interesting stuff
Yes, January 1984-esque conditions like from 15th Jan 1984 below.
Report on snowfalls from this NW'ly:
https://www.rte.ie/archives/2018/1218/1017873-snow-covers-ireland/
ECM 0z had 850hPa temps as low as -7C early on Tuesday 11th and subzero dew points too for most inland areas. EDIT: Down to -6C 850hPa and dew points still generally subzero later on Monday but brief, on 12z.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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ECM snow charts suggesting nothing out of the ordinary also. Some hill snow, maybe the odd flurry at lower levels if showers are heavy enough.
No surprise really that real storm potential is being downgraded run on run as these millennial winters are just incapable of producing them.New Moon
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snow does look rather restricted to mostly high ground in Ulster, parts of the west and the Wicklow Mountains. Looks very good for Scotland but most of that is high ground as well. For now I wouldn't be expecting much more than what happened the other week, as the cold and snow potential will probably downgrade more over the next week, as it usually does.
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downgrade is the word of the day
Dont know about that squarecircles, Sunday storm looks consistent and a possible fast moving depression on Saturday showing up now ( in range so in the +120 technical thread ).
Weds looking very severe still, granted it is a long way off and the models are showing different tracks and strengths but the overall picture I think is still showing strong possibility for a storm. And maybe another one after that.
ICON
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since this afternoons run, it has shifted from nothern Scotland, back south, but further south than yesterdays runs. Severe winds over the bulk of the country but perhaps not as bad as what was shown yesterday but it would still be close to red alert territory with winds up to 130km/h in places, especially along the south coast. Southern England looks to be in real trouble if this was to verify.
An upgrade for snow too, particularly after the storm.
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JanuarySnowstor wrote: »nobody knows certainly not the models but the trend this evening is to downgrade itJanuarySnowstor wrote: »Everything upgraded again on the gfs 18z!!
Storm very much back on, severe with snowfall likely both before and after....
It's getting closer folks!
New Moon
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squarecircles wrote: »people over on the netweather forum are getting worried now.
That storm would bring devastation to southern England.
apparently the control run also goes with this storms level of intensity.
More runs needed!
New Moon
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