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European Parliament Elections 2019

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    #722
    Just Saying
    Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭Just Saying


    Faugheen wrote: »
    You’re correct. I mixed up my North West’s with my South.

    No problem...I had to edit my post as I typed 20% of quota instead of 20% of poll.

    I think the Greens will get 3 seats.

    I also think Lynn Boylan is in huge trouble and the SF seat in the South is in danger.
    Traditionally Greens are transfer friendly and SF are not but the geographical spread of candidates makes things especially confusing.


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    #723
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,194 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    mickmackmcgoo wrote: »
    I'm not , depends on how much surplus mcguinness has when passed the quota. Will be a tight one

    IF and that's a big IF, the exit poll is accurate, McGuinness will have 5% of a surplus. If 60% of that goes to Walsh, she will have 13%, ahead of McHugh and on the heels of Carthy.

    Walsh and McHugh could be more transfer-friendly than Carthy and Flanagan, leaving them to fight for the last two seats. Only thing is Walsh is unlikely to get transfers from Casey.


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    #724
    Fann Linn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,772 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    hmmm wrote: »
    I think more than anything this shows that there is a big opportunity for a FG or FF to embrace the Green agenda, without the lefty baggage. The Euros are a nice and safe way to send a message, sure no-one knows what goes in Europe. They won't receive the same vote in national elections, and it's there to be won.

    Better public transport, ignore the NIMBYs. More cycle lanes. More renewables. More focus on climate change as a country. More electric charging points. More retrofitting of housing to higher standards. But ditch the whole social justice spiel.

    It wouldn't work. No one would believe Leo or MM if they started spouting green values and policies.

    In fairness to Cuffe and the GP at least they do really believe this sh1t.


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    #725
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,865 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    road_high wrote: »
    So how many of these middle class hypocrites that vote “Green” will be ditching the 4 foreign holidays and three cars? I always find the biggest hypocrites going vote green as they’re comfortably well off enough to afford to be preachy- minor inconveniences like carbon taxes will effect them the least, it’s always the poorest in society that will suffer

    The boom is back baby.


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    #726
    Wheeliebin30
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,593 ✭✭✭Wheeliebin30


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Lynn Boylan is Eoin O'Broin's partner. He of the housing crisis mantra every shaggin day.

    Maybe those who go out to work to pay for this have had enough now.

    Time for the contributors to the social fund to have a say. Vlad might get the message soon too.

    300k for a social house to be built. 40 built around the corner from me.

    My area can’t even get 50k for a playground for my kids.

    Sick of this homeless nonsense.


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    #727
    abcabc123123
    Registered Users Posts: 286 ✭✭abcabc123123


    Any chance Gannon might squeeze into the running on transfers? I reckon he'd take a lot of Cuffe's surplus, and would transfer well from Higgins and White, if he stays ahead of him.


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    #728
    Westernyelp
    Registered Users Posts: 2,371 ✭✭✭Westernyelp


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Indeed, she may have missed a tenth of the support she expected, kudos on your latin.


    Ming, however, got beaten on those numbers.

    think the Latin translation would have her losing 90%


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    #729
    Boom__Boom
    Registered Users Posts: 3,101 ✭✭✭Boom__Boom


    mickmackmcgoo wrote: »
    Fianna fail won't get 2 in South anyway . Kelly. Kelleher. Ni Riadh. O Sullivan look ok. Can mick Wallace hold off clune for a seat ? Would Malcolm Byrne wex vote transfer well to him ?

    I think Ni Riadh could be in bother - Given the way the Green vote has gone, I could see her losing a serious chunk of her transfers to O'Sullivan, especially when you see how Ni Riadh's FPV is down (19.1% in 2014 to 13% in the exit poll)

    Sinn Fein have taken a serious kicking when you look at the 3 Euro constituencies
    - Ni Riadh down from 19.1% in 2014 to 13% in the Red C poll
    - Boylan down from 23.6% in 2014 to 10% in the Red C poll
    - McCarthy down from 17.8% in 2014 to 15% in the Red C poll

    Add in the fact that the Red C poll has them down to 12% from 15.2% in the locals in 2014.

    Mary Lou likely to come under some pressure I'd imagine.


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    #730
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,194 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Tell me how wrote: »
    This is on Mary Lou. She has been there long enough, is front and centre in all topical conversations and never seems to be absent of an opinion of her own.

    I think the shambles in the North has influenced how they are viewed down here.

    I think Wheeliebin was referring to the men behind closed doors.


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    #731
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,865 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Wheeliebin30 wrote: »
    300k for a social house to be built. 40 built around the corner from me.

    My area can’t even get 50k for a playground for my kids.

    Sick of this homeless nonsense.

    Yep, I hear ya. And hopefully others aiming for power or actually IN power might listen now. The pendulum has swung too far imo.

    Imagine workers having to commute an hour or more to get to a job, whilst a family without work is housed within the city limits. Beggars belief.

    BTW I am all for working people getting a leg up through HAP or whatever, but the whole system needs a bloody good overhaul.


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    #732
    AndrewJRenko
    Registered Users Posts: 28,386 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Sawduck wrote: »
    Would the green party put taxes on everything they see as a threat to the environment?
    No, but they might well put taxes on the things that actually ARE a threat to the environment - plane flights, diesel engines, plastic, plastic, plastic.


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    #733
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    I expect to see basically every party leader try "blame" the Greens for what appears to be an undershoot of expectations by all. But the Greens % doesn't give sufficient cover to everyone

    If played out, FFs performance is almost worthy of ditching Martin really - unless the Local results are much more positive, which they could be. But he'll blame the Greens and survive.


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    #734
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users Posts: 13,030 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Peter Casey rejected again. Hopefully that's the end of him.


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    #735
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,872 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    AndrewJRenko wrote: »
    No, but they might well put taxes on the things that actually ARE a threat to the environment - plane flights, diesel engines, plastic, plastic, plastic.


    Was it not the Greens that were mad keen on diesel engines over petrol a few years back ?


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    #736
    Fann Linn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,772 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Yep, I hear ya. And hopefully others aiming for power or actually IN power might listen now. The pendulum has swung too far imo.

    Imagine workers having to commute an hour or more to get to a job, whilst a family without work is housed within the city limits. Beggars belief.

    BTW I am all for working people getting a leg up through HAP or whatever, but the whole system needs a bloody good overhaul.

    No way will any govt change their social policies on the exit poll results of Mairead McGuinness and Walsh in an EU election!!


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    #737
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    Hermann Kelly of Irexit on 0% :D


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    #738
    mickmackmcgoo
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 950 ✭✭✭mickmackmcgoo


    Boom__Boom wrote:
    Sinn Fein have taken a serious kicking when you look at the 3 Euro constituencies - Ni Riadh down from 19.1% in 2014 to 13% in the Red C poll - Boylan down from 23.6% in 2014 to 10% in the Red C poll - McCarthy down from 17.8% in 2014 to 15% in the Red C poll


    Huge drop for Sinn Fein yes. I think carthy and Ni Riadh will be ok. Dublin will be difficult for Sinn Fein . Cuffe and F Fitzgerald are safe . Between Boylan , Clare Daly and Andrews for 2 seats . All assuming exit poll is right of course which it won't be


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    #739
    grbear
    Registered Users Posts: 693 ✭✭✭grbear


    It'll be interesting to see how Midlands-Northwest plays out but I'm delighted to see that Rabbitte failed miserably.


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    #740
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,517 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    blanch152 wrote: »
    I think Wheeliebin was referring to the men behind closed doors.

    I know. But I'm not so sure those guys are responsible for the party as much as they are said to any more.


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    #741
    Christy42
    Registered Users Posts: 7,867 ✭✭✭Christy42


    AndrewJRenko wrote: »
    No, but they might well put taxes on the things that actually ARE a threat to the environment - plane flights, diesel engines, plastic, plastic, plastic.

    Indeed. And if we could get a better emphasis on public transport it would help the health of the cities a lot and shorten a lot of commutes.


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    #742
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    Anyone think Lynn Boylan still has a chance? Think FF could be in trouble there too.


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    #743
    badtoro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 482 ✭✭badtoro


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    Hermann Kelly of Irexit on 0% :D

    Seems high to me, must be that margin or error % 😉


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    #744
    Fann Linn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,772 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    Anyone think Lynn Boylan still has a chance? Think FF could be in trouble there too.

    As long as FF are in trouble its a good day.


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    #745
    Nobelium
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭Nobelium


    road_high wrote: »
    So how many of these middle class hypocrites that vote “Green” will be ditching the 4 foreign holidays and three cars? I always find the biggest hypocrites going vote green as they’re comfortably well off enough to afford to be preachy- minor inconveniences like carbon taxes will effect them the least, it’s always the poorest in society that will suffer

    So true . . . grand for those who can put in some 50 grand heating / solar / wind system and buy an new electric car every 2 years


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    #746
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Westernyelp wrote: »
    think the Latin translation would have her losing 90%


    These days with the google and all it isn't hard to look things up instead of making an idiot of yourself.


    And yet...


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    #747
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,872 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Peter Casey rejected again. Hopefully that's the end of him.


    No big loss, but it looks like when he is eliminated his vote will have a major say in where the last seat, if not the last two go


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    #748
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    Anyone think Lynn Boylan still has a chance? Think FF could be in trouble there too.

    I won’t rule it out completely but SF are very transfer toxic. She’s in big trouble.


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    #749
    mickmackmcgoo
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 950 ✭✭✭mickmackmcgoo


    Fan of Netflix wrote:
    Anyone think Lynn Boylan still has a chance? Think FF could be in trouble there too.


    She has a chance . Gary Gannon transfers will help her and Clare Daly


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    #750
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,865 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Fann Linn wrote: »
    No way will any govt change their social policies on the exit poll results of Mairead McGuinness and Walsh in an EU election!!

    They are not Dublin based, which is where the housing anomalies are happening between workers and scratchers.


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    #751
    Just Saying
    Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭Just Saying


    In Midlands NW the fascinating question is where the Smith/Casey/Rabbitte transfers will go.
    It is likely that the 3 candidates requiring the transfers will be Mc Hugh/Walsh/Flanagan who are for varying reasons unlikely to pick up a big block of transfers from any of them.
    If this is the case the key question will be how far ahead of Flanagan will Mc Hugh and Walsh be after the distribution of the MMcG surplus...If Walsh gets more than 50% of the surplus then Flanagan is in real trouble.


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