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European Parliament Elections 2019

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    #692
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    McHugh has that MNW seat IMO. A margin of error of 4% is pretty massive though so could be some surprises yet. When will results be announced?

    Sunday night is first count I believe.


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    #693
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    Faugheen wrote: »
    And Mairead’s 9% surplus?
    She has a surplus of about 5% I'd say


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    #694
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Zubeneschamali wrote:
    Why do you imagine Green means extra tax?


    Previous history of Greens in power.


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    #695
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    mickmackmcgoo wrote: »
    9% would definitely put Walsh there but it may only be 4 or 5 % which would make it very close

    Could also be 11 or 12 if you want to take in the MOE.


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    #696
    Wheeliebin30
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,593 ✭✭✭Wheeliebin30


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Greens are the safe option for Euros and Locals. Delighted to see the main parties getting a kicking though, they are smug and need a wake up call.

    I am not sure if the Green vote would translate much in a GE, but you never know these days. Green is good and climate change is high on the agenda.

    The main parties hardly got a kicking?


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    #697
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    is_that_so wrote: »
    He'll be OK if that's his FPV. Quota will probably be about 19% or so and he'll pick up some lefty stuff and even some FF stuff. Apart from maybe Walsh nobody looks like they can pass him.


    Closer to 20% maybe, and he will pick up transfers from those alright, but 5% from transfers could be a stretch. A lot will depend on what % of McGuinness surplus Walsh gets.


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    #698
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,897 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Previous history of Greens in power.

    They are not going to be in domestic power though. For a long time yet, unless the next GE requires a coalition, and they fit the bill.


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    #699
    alan partridge aha
    Registered Users Posts: 3,200 ✭✭✭alan partridge aha


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Greens are the safe option for Euros and Locals. Delighted to see the main parties getting a kicking though, they are smug and need a wake up call.

    I am not sure if the Green vote would translate much in a GE, but you never know these days. Green is good and climate change is high on the agenda.

    Ya agreed especially Vlad very smug and the nodding dog Mickey Martin


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    #700
    Fann Linn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,773 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    Sawduck wrote: »
    Regardless of what happens,at least we should all be grateful that boris johnson is not likely to be in control of our country

    He will be by proxy. No deal and hard border looking very ominous if he gets May's job.


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    #701
    Dyr
    Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Why do you imagine Green means extra tax?

    Because the greens don't like oridanry people.

    Not really surprised at their resurgence (like knotweed IMO) given the enormous push that the UN et al have given their cause recently

    I suppose that's different to Russian meddling is some way :confused:


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    #702
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    Sinn Fein won't be happy. Mary Lou has been a failure as leader.


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    #703
    Blueshoe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,964 ✭✭✭Blueshoe


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    They are not going to be in domestic power though. For a long time yet, unless the next GE requires a coalition, and they fit the bill.

    Hopefully never. I pay enough tax into the black hole


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    #704
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Wheeliebin30 wrote: »
    The main parties hardly got a kicking?

    FF no seat in MNW again, vote share down a lot after Crowley, a plus is winning a seat in Dublin.

    FG nowhere near as strong in Dublin, remains to be seen if they can pick up another seat in MNW but could also lose one in South.

    SF in big trouble. Share of vote down a lot.

    All down in the locals.

    I wouldn’t be happy if I were those three leaders.


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    #705
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Inquitus wrote: »
    First seats Sunday night, most Monday, and the longer counts for final seats into Tues and Weds I'd guess.


    No way it takes that long, done and dusted by the 6 pm news Monday.


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    #706
    Wheeliebin30
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,593 ✭✭✭Wheeliebin30


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    Sinn Fein won't be happy. Mary Lou has been a failure as leader.

    We all know who pulls the strings.


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    #707
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Closer to 20% maybe, and he will pick up transfers from those alright, but 5% from transfers could be a stretch. A lot will depend on what % of McGuinness surplus Walsh gets.
    I think he's far enough ahead of the rest at that level. Walsh gets in for me and she will get some Labour transfers as well. The last seat will probably be taken without reaching the quota.


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    #708
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    Faugheen wrote: »
    FF no seat in MNW again, vote share down a lot after Crowley, a plus is winning a seat in Dublin.

    FG nowhere near as strong in Dublin, remains to be seen if they can pick up another seat in MNW but could also lose one in South.

    SF in big trouble. Share of vote down a lot.

    All down in the locals.

    I wouldn’t be happy if I were those three leaders.
    Labour be raging too, no longer the 4th biggest party anymore. Big trouble for them


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    #709
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,520 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Wheeliebin30 wrote: »
    We all know who pulls the strings.

    This is on Mary Lou. She has been there long enough, is front and centre in all topical conversations and never seems to be absent of an opinion of her own.

    I think the shambles in the North has influenced how they are viewed down here.


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    #710
    Just Saying
    Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭Just Saying


    Faugheen wrote: »
    Could also be 11 or 12 if you want to take in the MOE.

    The quota in a 4 seat constituency is 20% of the vote.To have a 11/12% surplus MMcG would need 31/32% of the vote which is plainly absurd.

    I think you either misunderstand the quota system or think it's a 5 seater.


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    #711
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    I think more than anything this shows that there is a big opportunity for a FG or FF to embrace the Green agenda, without the lefty baggage. The Euros are a nice and safe way to send a message, sure no-one knows what goes in Europe. They won't receive the same vote in national elections, and it's there to be won.

    Better public transport, ignore the NIMBYs. More cycle lanes. More renewables. More focus on climate change as a country. More electric charging points. More retrofitting of housing to higher standards. But ditch the whole social justice spiel.


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    #712
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,897 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    To those who know, do you think Frances Fitzgerald will get a seat? She is polling lower than I expected. I suppose on transfers from Durkan she will get in.

    Time for some new blood in these parties, they trot out the same people to the retirement home in Strasbourg every time.


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    #713
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    Wheeliebin30 wrote: »
    We all know who pulls the strings.
    They tried hard to get the woman and feminist vote. They failed. Time to get the balaclavas back on lol


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    #714
    gmisk
    Registered Users Posts: 31,935 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    GOD having a meltdown on Twitter....absolutely delicious!
    If exit polls are correct, it looks like Irish people have voted for corruption and the destruction of their country and their children’s futures.


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    #715
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Just Saying wrote: »
    The quota in a 4 seat constituency is 20% of the quota.To have a 11/12% surplus MMcG would need 31/32% of the vote which is plainly absurd.

    I think you either misunderstand the quota system or think it's a 5 seater.

    You’re correct. I mixed up my North West’s with my South.


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    #716
    Wheeliebin30
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,593 ✭✭✭Wheeliebin30


    gmisk wrote: »
    GOD having a meltdown on Twitter....absolutely delicious!
    If exit polls are correct, it looks like Irish people have voted for corruption and the destruction of their country and their children’s futures.

    Yeah ok zzzz.


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    #717
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Greens are the safe option for Euros and Locals. Delighted to see the main parties getting a kicking though, they are smug and need a wake up call.

    I am not sure if the Green vote would translate much in a GE, but you never know these days. Green is good and climate change is high on the agenda.

    So how many of these middle class hypocrites that vote “Green” will be ditching the 4 foreign holidays and three cars? I always find the biggest hypocrites going vote green as they’re comfortably well off enough to afford to be preachy- minor inconveniences like carbon taxes will effect them the least, it’s always the poorest in society that will suffer


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    #718
    gandalf
    Registered Users Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    gmisk wrote: »
    GOD having a meltdown on Twitter....absolutely delicious!
    If exit polls are correct, it looks like Irish people have voted for corruption and the destruction of their country and their children’s futures.

    Jaysus I must unblock her for the entertainment so!

    At least now she can be accurately described as a failed candidate up until today she was a failed nominee candidate :D


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    #719
    Bobeagleburger
    Registered Users Posts: 45,276 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Greens are the safe option for Euros and Locals. Delighted to see the main parties getting a kicking though, they are smug and need a wake up call.

    I am not sure if the Green vote would translate much in a GE, but you never know these days. Green is good and climate change is high on the agenda.

    Can see green vote being carried to a GE. Maybe not to the same extent, but the regular parties don't do much for younger voters imo, where climate change is a massive topic, more so than other age brackets.

    Climate change is such a big deal and none of the big parties in the dail seem to care too much. They will now though!


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    #720
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I think he's far enough ahead of the rest at that level. Walsh gets in for me and she will get some Labour transfers as well. The last seat will probably be taken without reaching the quota.


    The last seat will most likely be filled without reaching a quota. Walsh looks okish, but McGuinness surplus will be around 5% and there will be some slippage in that. Still think she needed to, if not that 5% as 1st preference,at least 3% to have her on around 13% to take the last.


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    #721
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,897 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Lynn Boylan is Eoin O'Broin's partner. He of the housing crisis mantra every shaggin day.

    Maybe those who go out to work to pay for this have had enough now.

    Time for the contributors to the social fund to have a say. Vlad might get the message soon too.


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