UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

Shazbot · 18-08-2013 11:44am

Shazbot wrote: »

There's a very limited betting market for UFC on Fox Sports 1 on Paddypower. Anyone know where I can get more prices? I've contacted Paddypower to see if we can get more added.

From what's there, I'm going with 2 singles of Sonnen by points @ 7/5 and Travis Browne by KO @ 23/10.

I'd like to see what the odds on some of the undercard fighters are. I'll put money on Pickett v McDonald as fight of the night.

I'll be putting a small bet on Howard by points @13/2

One of the rare times when I get a nice return. Great night of fights.

welkin · 18-08-2013 3:27pm

Only broke even.

Had a big single on Lauzon but he got his ass handed to him.

Only got my money back cause I had a sidebet on Howard

stiffler123 · 18-08-2013 3:44pm

Shazbot wrote: »

I'll be putting a small bet on Howard by points @13/2

Very nice bet, well done.

welkin · 26-08-2013 5:34pm

Found 30c in my betsafe account so I'm having a punt on this week's MMA!

12 euro back when he comes in!

broders3 · 27-08-2013 12:15pm

My never ending quest for good value underdogs continues. Just 2 picks I like for Wednesday. I have Elkins over Hioki and he is a slight underdog at 11/10 on PP. The second is Melancon over Gastelum at 15/8. I thought Melancon looked incredible in his debut and that was a fight he took on short notice vs Bacsynski (excuse the spelling).

Some more underdogs for Saturday, have Rothwell over Vera by giant man smother. Rothwell is 11/10 which is generous, Vera's first fight back at heavyweight. I have Poirier over Koch. Dustin is 6/5 at the moment with Koch 4/6 for some reason. Not sure if it's a home advantage thing or something but Kock took a hellacious beating off Lamas last time out and Poirier lost a tough fight by decision to Swanson. I think Poirier is more well rounded and takes a decision.

If he is close to 100% I think Pettis can take the belt but I think his health is the big variable here. Won't be betting on it, just looking forward to watching it.

Jizzear · 30-08-2013 3:16pm

have a snakey accumulator on tomorrows fights,

guida by decision, barnett by ko/tko and pettis by ko/tko, a 5er pays over 600, sure why not like!

Mr. Manager · 30-08-2013 3:29pm

Jizzear wrote: »

have a snakey accumulator on tomorrows fights,

guida by decision, barnett by ko/tko and pettis by ko/tko, a 5er pays over 600, sure why not like!

Swap out Guida for Mendes and you've got a winner :cool:

Jizzear · 30-08-2013 6:14pm

Comply With My Fist! wrote: »

Swap out Guida for Mendes and you've got a winner :cool:

na reckon since maynard and mendes are fairly similar that clay is goin in with that gameplan meaning its gona be a ****e fight where nothing happens and so who knows who the decision will go to...

broders3 · 17-10-2013 2:10pm

Hasn't been much activity here lately so will get my 2 cents in for Saturday. Main bet I like is Gilbert Melendez to finish Diego Sanchez by KO @ 11/4. I think Gil is on a whole different level to Sanchez and most of the tipsters are saying it will be a decision due to Diego's toughness but I really think Gil makes an example out of him. Will double this up with a 2/1 bet on the fight to last below 2.5 rounds.

I like Lombard over Marquardt but he is 4/7 so not much value there.

Can't call the main event to be honest, leaning towards Cain but Junior would want to be longer than 7/4 for me to go with.

DK224 · 18-10-2013 4:19pm

Is it just me or is the 9/1 being offered on a Cain submission win over Junior tomorrow night a great price?

califano · 18-10-2013 5:43pm

Its just you!. Admittedly its is a nice looking price but bigfoot was there for the sub if needed wide open, even offered CAin his neck but Cain elected to beat down more even though it was a bloodbath of a ring. With the history with JDS i cant see a sub entering Cains mind even if JDS loses his senses similarly to Bigfoot and folds and opens himself up for the sub. This added to the fact that Cain just isnt a subber anyway.

welkin · 19-10-2013 10:51am

Lads what's the deal with Gonzaga so long against Shawn Jordan?

Ladcrooks have him at 33/20. Shawn Jordan has only beaten cans in the UFC and lost to Kongo. Jordan is 1/2 - wtf

Gonzaga is a beast imo. He's a bottler in the big fights but he's looked awesome since he came back and only lost to Browne via highly illegal elbows (imo)

Have a trebel with Gabriel, Cormier, and Kaufmann. 45e back from a tenner on Brokelads.

stealinhorses · 19-10-2013 11:00am

Yeah, veterans usually get a bit of an edge from the bookies. I wouldn't throw anything on Gonzaga anyway tbh, not at those odds either

Mellor · 19-10-2013 12:04pm

broders3 wrote: »

Hasn't been much activity here lately so will get my 2 cents in for Saturday. Main bet I like is Gilbert Melendez to finish Diego Sanchez by KO @ 11/4. I think Gil is on a whole different level to Sanchez and most of the tipsters are saying it will be a decision due to Diego's toughness but I really think Gil makes an example out of him. Will double this up with a 2/1 bet on the fight to last below 2.5 rounds.

You can't double those bets. One effects the other.

My only bet right now is Dodson by decision

mailburner · 19-10-2013 7:38pm

agree with gonzaga being overpriced but im scared to pull the trigger
really hope he gets the win though

single on george sotir by dec at 3/1 (betv)
I thought he would have been fav for the bout as is but he's
6/4 with kj trading at 8/15
I don't rate either at all but kj just stands and trades and does
nothing else as far as I can see but he's a very hard man to put away

treble at just under 8/1 on these
really see melendez and cormier going the distance
not sure about the main bout but I'm thinking it might
play out similiar to the last one but with junior holding
his own for two to three rounds this time and cain dominating
late on
Gilbert Melendez To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 4/7
(Method of Victory)
Daniel Cormier To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 4/7
(Method of Victory)
Cain Velasquez To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 13/5
(Method of Victory)

El Guapo! · 19-10-2013 8:08pm

Did a tenner accumulator on...

George Sotiropolous
Tim Boetsch
Hector Lombard
John Dodson
Gilbert Melendez
Daniel Cormier
Cain Velasquez

Returns €138.

Also stuck a cheeky €2 on Boetsch for KO of the night @25/1.

I never have any luck at gambling but it's worth a shot!

Xlami · 19-10-2013 8:19pm

broders3 wrote: »

Hasn't been much activity here lately so will get my 2 cents in for Saturday. Main bet I like is Gilbert Melendez to finish Diego Sanchez by KO @ 11/4. I think Gil is on a whole different level to Sanchez and most of the tipsters are saying it will be a decision due to Diego's toughness but I really think Gil makes an example out of him. Will double this up with a 2/1 bet on the fight to last below 2.5 rounds.

I like Lombard over Marquardt but he is 4/7 so not much value there.

Can't call the main event to be honest, leaning towards Cain but Junior would want to be longer than 7/4 for me to go with.

I don't see much value on this card but I don't see less than 3-1 as good value here. Sanchez never been knocked out and Melendez more of a point striker IMO. However if I am wrong I will bow to your wisdom.

mailburner · 19-10-2013 8:24pm

one for the road and my main bet which works out at 6/5

diego has fought 29 times and only once has failed to
go the distance which was a doctor stoppage v bj
in round 5
melendez has never been stopped in 24 fights

cormier has won all 12 of his fights
big country has been stopped once in 27 fights against
arlovski in 2008
I can't for the life of me see cormier finish bc

both gm+dc pts is 7/4 but I feel i'm taking the safe option
if ever there was such a thing in gambling

Selection2/5 - Yes
EventDiego Sanchez v Gilbert Melendez UFC
MarketFight To Go To Decision

Selection4/7 - Yes
EventRoy Nelson v Daniel Cormier UFC
MarketFight To Go To Decision

El Guapo! · 19-10-2013 9:27pm

I reckon that's as close as you can get to money in the bank, mailburner.
Good bet. Best of luck with it.

A little tip for anyone having a punt tonight: Bet the opposite of all my bets. It's a sure thing. :pac:

mailburner · 19-10-2013 9:34pm

El Guapo! wrote: »

I reckon that's as close as you can get to money in the bank, mailburner.
Good bet. Best of luck with it.

A little tip for anyone having a punt tonight: Bet the opposite of all my bets. It's a sure thing. :pac:

thanks eg
so which ONE of that 7 man accumulator is gonna screw you?

looks pretty good to me but there's always one

had a biggish bet last week on the moldo/thiago silva / maia treble

I was counting my money going into the maia fight, was so confident
I was shellshocked for days afterwards wondering how he didnt beat shields(who i dont rate at all) in brazil

MrStuffins · 19-10-2013 10:23pm

Melendez is the man but I can't shake my desire to have a punt on Diego at 9/2.

Suppose that's how bookies stay in business!

mailburner · 19-10-2013 11:05pm

MrStuffins wrote: »

Melendez is the man but I can't shake my desire to have a punt on Diego at 9/2.

Suppose that's how bookies stay in business!

it's a big price for diego, actually its huge and probably worth a small punt
i think itll be melendez but i dont think diego will be outclassed either

It might be sanchez/guida all over again
I hope it is anyway and if it is that kind of fight it will
be close enough

El Guapo! · 19-10-2013 11:12pm

mailburner wrote: »

thanks eg
so which ONE of that 7 man accumulator is gonna screw you?

looks pretty good to me but there's always one

I have this weird feeling that big country is gonna knock out Cormier. I really really hope I'm wrong but if my bet is gonna lose, that'll be the one to do it!

Plus Sotiropoulos is dodgy. He's on a bad streak at the minute and his job is on the line tonight in my opinion. He could very easily blow it.

mailburner · 19-10-2013 11:31pm

El Guapo! wrote: »

I have this weird feeling that big country is gonna knock out Cormier. I really really hope I'm wrong but if my bet is gonna lose, that'll be the one to do it!

Plus Sotiropoulos is dodgy. He's on a bad streak at the minute and his job is on the line tonight in my opinion. He could very easily blow it.

Think cormier will win ugly and I predict a third round similiar
to hamill silva....slow motion

I'm biased bout sot as i have him backed

he surely faces the chop if he loses

was thinking lombard might do what he normally does and just
wait for a one punch knockout and lose a decision or maybe
cb dolloway weathers the storm and somehow wins a dec

hope we are both wrong
best of luck with it

welkin · 20-10-2013 11:53am

welkin wrote: »

Lads what's the deal with Gonzaga so long against Shawn Jordan?

Ladcrooks have him at 33/20. Shawn Jordan has only beaten cans in the UFC and lost to Kongo. Jordan is 1/2 - wtf

Gonzaga is a beast imo. He's a bottler in the big fights but he's looked awesome since he came back and only lost to Browne via highly illegal elbows (imo)

Have a trebel with Gabriel, Cormier, and Kaufmann. 45e back from a tenner on Brokelads.

Was right about Gonzaga but Kaufmann let me down

mailburner · 20-10-2013 3:36pm

mailburner wrote: »

one for the road and my main bet which works out at 6/5

diego has fought 29 times and only once has failed to
go the distance which was a doctor stoppage v bj
in round 5
melendez has never been stopped in 24 fights

cormier has won all 12 of his fights
big country has been stopped once in 27 fights against
arlovski in 2008
I can't for the life of me see cormier finish bc

both gm+dc pts is 7/4 but I feel i'm taking the safe option
if ever there was such a thing in gambling

Selection2/5 - Yes
EventDiego Sanchez v Gilbert Melendez UFC
MarketFight To Go To Decision

Selection4/7 - Yes
EventRoy Nelson v Daniel Cormier UFC
MarketFight To Go To Decision

Delighted with that, went smoothly enough bar a possible
doctor stoppage

mailburner wrote: »

agree with gonzaga being overpriced but im scared to pull the trigger
really hope he gets the win though

single on george sotir by dec at 3/1 (betv)
I thought he would have been fav for the bout as is but he's
6/4 with kj trading at 8/15
I don't rate either at all but kj just stands and trades and does
nothing else as far as I can see but he's a very hard man to put away

treble at just under 8/1 on these
really see melendez and cormier going the distance
not sure about the main bout but I'm thinking it might
play out similiar to the last one but with junior holding
his own for two to three rounds this time and cain dominating
late on
Gilbert Melendez To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 4/7
(Method of Victory)
Daniel Cormier To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 4/7
(Method of Victory)
Cain Velasquez To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 13/5
(Method of Victory)

no joy with sotir

thought i had that treble in

mailburner · 24-10-2013 10:51pm

had it in my head all week to lump on manuwa to win inside
the distance at 11/10 but its now best at 4/5 so too short now

Went on sherdog who reckon jimmo by dec
I rarely read predictions before doing my bets as i hate
being put off and these experts get it wrong often enough also but
something was stopping me pulling the trigger when I seen that price
a couple of nights ago

I think manuwa could put jimmo away but if he doesnt do it
in the first or by maybe mid second I think it'll go to a decision
I think manuwas stand up is far superior to jimmo and if jimmo
makes it past the first then he has a good chance
I might be totally wrong but I'm going with this

Main bet on (pp)

UFC Matches Jimi Manuwa v Ryan Jimmo
26-10-2013 21:00
Round Betting
Jimi Manuwa To Win in Round 1 @ 5/2

with a saver on

Your selections
UFC Matches Jimi Manuwa v Ryan Jimmo
26-10-2013 21:00
Round Betting
Jimi Manuwa To Win in Round 2 @ 11/2

Got a freebet of bet365 so taking this accum at
slightly under 4/1

Manuwa
miller
craig
lineker

other than that i like guillards chances and a round one win at 3/1 looks decent or
a win by ko 13/10 isnt bad albeit a bit short but I'm rooting for pearson so I dont
want to get involved
guillard may well run rings around pearson though (hope im wrong)

mailburner · 26-10-2013 9:35pm

mailburner wrote: »

had it in my head all week to lump on manuwa to win inside
the distance at 11/10 but its now best at 4/5 so too short now

I think manuwa could put jimmo away but if he doesnt do it
in the first or by maybe mid second I think it'll go to a decision
I think manuwas stand up is far superior to jimmo and if jimmo
makes it past the first then he has a good chance
I might be totally wrong but I'm going with this

Main bet on (pp)

UFC Matches Jimi Manuwa v Ryan Jimmo
26-10-2013 21:00
Round Betting
Jimi Manuwa To Win in Round 1 @ 5/2

with a saver on

Your selections
UFC Matches Jimi Manuwa v Ryan Jimmo
26-10-2013 21:00
Round Betting
Jimi Manuwa To Win in Round 2 @ 11/2

Got a freebet of bet365 so taking this accum at
slightly under 4/1

Manuwa
miller
craig
lineker

)

never thought craig would be the one to let me down there

relieved to get the round two win for manuwa
got lucky with that one bigtime so just a tiny profit overall

expected more of a brawl
half of the first round being spent clinched against the
cage scuppered my main bet

but1er · 26-10-2013 9:42pm

munoz & pearson double 8.5 great odds

mailburner · 26-10-2013 9:49pm

very small bet for an interest
pays a little over 10/1

Melvin Guillard to win in Round 1 @ 5/2
(Round Betting)
Lyoto Machida to win on Decision or Points @ 12/5
(Round Betting)

mailburner · 26-10-2013 10:35pm

mailburner wrote: »

very small bet for an interest
pays a little over 10/1

Melvin Guillard to win in Round 1 @ 5/2
(Round Betting)
Lyoto Machida to win on Decision or Points @ 12/5
(Round Betting)

interest over

SRFC · 27-10-2013 2:24am

mailburner wrote: »

interest over

Guillard was about to dish out a beating to pearson you were unlucky.

mailburner · 05-11-2013 8:42pm

double for tomorrow night I think looks good

chiesa + kennedy (1/3+4/7)

works out at 11/10 with most (boyles for me)

Not a fan of kennedy by any means but I really don't see
natal winning this fight anywhere
Kennedy will win this for his brothers and sisters putting
their lives on the line for their great nation

On the other hand I don't rate colton smith at all and he's
up against chiesa
Both are good wrestlers and I see neither being taken down
chiesas stand up is imo much better than smith who really has
no stand up to speak of and surely won't have improved that
much since is one sided beating by whittaker to beat
chiesa so It's my opinion that chiesa will beat
smith in fort campbell in front of smiths brothers and sistesr and
I will hopefully have a few extra quid in my pocket because
if this happens I will be counting my money with kennedy still
to come

one possible doubt if any is that smith is moving down to lightweight and
has had his first proper fight camp so it should bring about some
improvement (not enough hopefully)

broders3 · 06-11-2013 5:55pm

Really like Chiesa in this fight. Smith looked like death on the scale I thought yesterday which certainly won't help him. The competition that Natal has beaten doesn't inspire confidence so I think Kennedy should have his way with him.

My accumulator for tonight:
Chiesa
Siler (Bermudez lucky to win his last 2 and he looked terrible against Holloway, I think Siler at 5/4 is a nice bet and bulks up the accum odds)
Khabilov
Carmouche
Kennedy

1 euro pays out 10.32 on paddy power so will have a few quid on that.

My other punt for a fiver is Khabilov/Masvidial for FON @ 9/1. Suplex master against a guy who likes to bang and is very durable.

mailburner · 07-11-2013 9:57pm

mailburner wrote: »

double for tomorrow night I think looks good

chiesa + kennedy (1/3+4/7)

works out at 11/10 with most (boyles for me)

Not a fan of kennedy by any means but I really don't see
natal winning this fight anywhere
Kennedy will win this for his brothers and sisters putting
their lives on the line for their great nation

On the other hand I don't rate colton smith at all and he's
up against chiesa
Both are good wrestlers and I see neither being taken down
chiesas stand up is imo much better than smith who really has
no stand up to speak of and surely won't have improved that
much since is one sided beating by whittaker to beat
chiesa so It's my opinion that chiesa will beat
smith in fort campbell in front of smiths brothers and sistesr and
I will hopefully have a few extra quid in my pocket because
if this happens I will be counting my money with kennedy still
to come

Easy enough, just finished it
One scare with chiesa but very comfortable besides
Rare I count a bet in with one fight left but I couldn't see
past kennedy with natal being a big step down in class for him

mailburner · 07-11-2013 10:00pm

broders3 wrote: »

My other punt for a fiver is Khabilov/Masvidial for FON @ 9/1. Suplex master against a guy who likes to bang and is very durable.

good man broders
I wondered how that price was so big but I always
lose when i bet on that one

mailburner · 09-11-2013 9:16pm

no degenerate gamblers around other than me?

broders3 · 09-11-2013 9:27pm

Me! I had a small bet on Vitor at 4/9. Still good value at that price I thought. Henderson really doesn't throw enough strikes for me to get the job done and I think vitor avoids the h bomb.

Will try keep my 1 strong FON win streak going. Cruishshank vs Martins is worth a small punt at 12-1.

mailburner · 09-11-2013 9:47pm

knew someone might pop out of the woodwork
welcome broders

gone for
belfort
ferraira
thatch
best combined odds 12/5

thatch will beat paulo thiago without any problem imo
vitor beats dan, too quick and age is on his side
have been very impressed with ferraira from what ive seen
think his stand up is better than sarafian and he's too cute
to get taken down (fight with moraes told me that much)

rony jason looks good for a win also

think vitor dan will walk fotn if it goes 3, dont think it will myself

my guess would be thatch thiago at 9s (certainly not backing it)
thiago is hard to put away and thatch is much better so he'll probably
look good beating him up

weemcd · 09-11-2013 9:55pm

If this card was anywhere else id be tempted to have a punt on Hendo. But this is in Brazil, and my #1 rule in gambling is never bet against a Brazilian fighting at home

mailburner · 09-11-2013 10:04pm

weemcd wrote: »

If this card was anywhere else id be tempted to have a punt on Hendo. But this is in Brazil, and my #1 rule in gambling is never bet against a Brazilian fighting at home

wise move

I learned my lesson when nog beat schaub there
couldnt see past schaub

be amazed if thatch couldnt beat paulo thiago though

broders3 · 09-11-2013 10:22pm

I actually know very little about ferreria and sarafian so will avoid those or thatch either for that matter. Not sure if hendo vitor will throw the volume of strikes required to get fotn. Both pretty measured guys looking for the big shot. Vitor barely threw a strike before he ko'd rockhold from what I can remember.

mailburner · 09-11-2013 10:32pm

started slow against bisbing also
I was getting excited
my biggest two bets all year were against rock and bis but
I was getting decent prices

said I'd do one mug bet for a laugh
need two for a few quid, three would cover xmas

UFC Matches Cezar Ferreira v Daniel Sarafian
10-11-2013 03:00
Round Betting
Cezar Ferreira To Win in Round 2 @ 15/2
UFC Matches Jeremy Stephens v Rony Jason
10-11-2013 01:00
Round Betting
Rony Jason To Win in Round 2 @ 6/1
UFC Matches Vitor Belfort v Dan Henderson
10-11-2013 03:30
Round Betting
Vitor Belfort To Win in Round 2 @ 6/1
Treble
1 line at €1.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €1.00
Potential returns: €416.50
No: O/20205062/0005940
Doubles from 3
3 lines at €1.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €3.00
Potential returns: €168.00
No: O/20205062/0005941

weemcd · 10-11-2013 3:09am

:rolleyes: so almost every Brazilian on the card so far has lost.

This makes me glad I don't gamble. Great night of finishes so far

Xlami · 10-11-2013 2:48pm

Got my footy accumulator up and put all the winnings on Rony Jason. Cruel world

mailburner · 10-11-2013 7:36pm

mailburner wrote: »

gone for
belfort
ferraira
thatch
best combined odds 12/5

gwan vitor you legend
that lad has been good to me this year

Apart from a few scares with ferraira it went well
was toying with putting in ferraira or jason so luck
was on my side there esp with the big fella sitting
on top of sarafian for most of that third round

broders3 · 11-11-2013 10:08am

Nice work mailburner. Vitor is the gift that keeps on giving. If you consider a shin to the chin a gift!

Should have stuck with the Dagestani's for fight of the night! Those former Soviet types know how to throw down!

El Guapo! · 12-11-2013 1:40pm

Anyone know who has odds up for fotn market for GSP v Hendricks?

I'm torn between doing Ceronne v Dunham or Lawler v MacDonald for fotn.

Mr. Manager · 12-11-2013 3:04pm

Just had a look on oddschecker there and couldn't see anything. We've seen MacDonald play the strategy game and patiently pick apart his opponent. Where as with Cerrone, I don't think he has any gear other than forward.

mailburner · 12-11-2013 5:20pm

ladbrokes the first to price it up http://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/ufc-167/fight-of-the-night
11/4 gsp hendr
5s chael reshad
5s cerrone dunham
7s lawlor mac

The 5s on cerrone dunham looks mighty but saying
that I would get this market wrong nine times out of ten

I'd be confident of it being a better fight than the top two
fights above it though

edit, Wouldn't rule out gsp fight either given how many times he's got it (3)
before and probably has more of a chance if its goes 5
Dont remember his fight with koscheck or fitch being great fights but they both
got fotn
they went five and he dominated both of them from start to finish

UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING