The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

normanoffside wrote: »

It’s a good question, there are a couple of reasons:

1. Health care workers are being tested routinely and often more than once for screening purposes.
2. When there was a big backlog lots of people will have recovered by the time they were tested.

Otherwise the simple answer is that we have to test loads of people otherwise we can’t find the positive cases.
It’s impossible in most cases to know if they have it until they are tested as the symptoms are so similar to colds and flus.

I get the health worker piece, I would assume all frontline workers, including Gards, The Army, Ambulance would need to have been tested.

But I cannot help thinking that only testing a handful of people is kind of pointless?

I am struggling to believe South Korea's claim that they tested unilaterally now. Their population is 50 million, there is no way they have tested everyone? They must be spoofing?

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Normal what do you reckon out real infected numbers would be at given our useless testing regime?

Could we be close to 100k? I'm just going off the lowest 10x estimate from all the Italian, Spanish, etc claims

If our current infected rates are circa 100k then 400 deaths fits snugly into the the German mortality rate of 0.37%?

normanoffside wrote: »

Clusters in nursing homes would be skewing our death rate massively upwards though?
Probably closer to 60,000

I was speaking with friends on the continent earlier today, the same nursing home spikes are happening in Belgium, France and the UK. I think if you are over 80 and you get this your survival chances are minimal.

It is spreading through the nursing homes because old aged people are less likely to be as vigilantly hygienic, either voluntarily or not. I have seen some racist finger pointing at nursing home staff, but the reality is that it has gotten in there through family and friends as well. I reckon over time it will be proven we have a lot of asymptomatic cases and that the younger you are the more robust your immune system is at shaking it off.

I robbed this graph off the main page. It show Dublin as basically being Ireland's epicentre, when you see how satellite towns and counties are affected it really compounds this. Cavan, Mullingar, Kildare and Wicklow are all now an hour's drive from Dublin.



The more I see the figures the more I think we are lucky to have locked down so early. But without a plan we are screwed if we open up early.

If we assume a 50% asymptomatic rate and then the 0.037% mortality rate I estimate that total Dublin deaths are going to be 1.4 million @ .037% = circa 5,000 deaths. There is a long way to go yet at these rates. However if we apply the same logic to the underestimation ( by say 10 times ) then Dublin has potentially 55,000 infected already. Given the 50% asymptomatic rate then that figure may not be to far off.

Either way you look at it the lockdown has been a success but we have no plan yet to get out of it, which is a problem.

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Let’s round up the Republic’s population to 5 million, it’s only 100,000 shy of this number

The amount of people expected to get it (whether they show symptoms or not) is anything from 30% to 70%, depending on the source you read. Huge differences there but let’s say 50% because it’s somewhere in between

That’s 2.5 million who’ll get it (remember; not all will show symptoms)

Reported mortality rates on this have been 0.5 to 2%. It’s just too early to tell

Let’s be optimistic and say 1%

1% of 2.5 million is 25,000 Irish fatalities in the Republic

This is more than double how many the HSE worker doing the Ask Me Anything thinks in his Best Case Scenario. He mentioned 10,000 people in this instance

So hopefully he’s actually right in this case and it’s “only” 10,000

For this to happen;

- The amount of carriers of this will have to be much lower than 50%, and

- mortality rate would need to be closer to 0.5%

How does 10,000 compare to a normal 12 months in Ireland when you combine the pneumonia and flu fatalities?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

The death rate would depend on the health status of the individuals infected, 10000 fit young healthy 20-30 yr olds infected you d have very low death rate most would survive,

Flip that to elderly with underlying conditions and you could have alot dead... its hard to know how many will die. too many variables

wakka12 wrote: »

It's just simply not true though . Denmark has a mortality rate of 5% among confirmed cases. If Denmark really has 30-80x times more cases then the danish authorities think the mortality rate of covid is between 0.06 and 0.15%.

If we apply that death rate to Italy based on 21600 deaths, it would mean up 43.2 million Italians have had the disease , considering the first cases of community transmission and deaths in Italy were recorded just 6 weeks ago it just not a plausible figure that 3/4 Italians caught the virus since then. Even that number getting it since January is not realistic

It's not realistic because contact tracings show that the R0 of the disease is nowhere near high enough to cause so many infections so quickly

If there were that many infections herd immunity would occur in Italy and there would not be thousands of deaths per week still occurring

Again, how could a disease of comparable mortality to flu stress Western European healthcare to this extent, mass graves in New York ffs..it's just impossible

I think your points are valid. A couple of aspects to the virus that are overlooked.

Danish Geography - Denmark is made up of a peninsula ( Jutland, very rural almost like Scotland( and then two other interconnected islands. Copenhagen is bridged to mainland Europe and also now to mainland Sweden. A lot of Swedes would work in Copenhagen and vice versa. You can live in Malmo ( pronounced malmoooo,) and commute to Copenhagen. Has the bridge and travel been closed with Malmo?

Just also on your Math. This morning I am getting 309/6,879 = which is 4.5% ( I know close enough to your 5%. But applying this to Italy's figures of 21,645/165,155 = 13.1% it is clear we have a difference in death to infection ratio. But what is that genuinely indicating at this stage?

Finally the 30x-80x standard deviation currently being offered by whoever quoted it is simply appalling for drawing any type of conclusive conclusion. They either have 30x 6k or 80 x 6k.... I mean that is a difference of 300,000 people. It is impossible to draw a suitable forecast from such numbers.

I personally think that it will turn out that this virus is extremely infectious and has a huge rate of infection. However it will also occur that there is a large populous of asymptomatic sufferers. I think the older you are the more trouble you are in. a lot more people are getting this and brushing it off.

iguana wrote: »

The serology study done on blood donations from people claiming to have had no symptoms in the town on Castiglione d'Adda in Lombardy showed a 70% infection rate. Whatever about southern Italy, it's actually looking reasonably likely that the infection rates in northern Italy may in fact, be that high.

I think over time it will be proven that the infection rates are massive. But large amounts of younger people are brushing off the virus . I think the amount of asymptomatic sufferers could be well over 50%.

I am wary of the figures from northern Italy also. I reckon they have had this virus since possibly December and did not know it. Either way they were caught napping and did not expect it to be as widespread as it was so soon. It is looking like countries with smaller population densities are coping best.

Here is also a link to a stats website I found earlier today. I got it from a link that I found on a twitter feed from a UCD commerce student. His feed is full of scaremonger, he has been trying to assimilate and compare the latent German test results with Spanish infection rates, what ever he gets off on:rolleyes: . But he spiked his stats from this site here, so worth a look.

Edit - I took down the link it started giving me issues.