COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

hmmm · 02-08-2020 1:55pm

NaFirinne wrote: »

and in some tests on animals made Covid 19 even worse and killing those who previously were not even vulnerable to it.

This is just not true.

Sounds to me like you've been fed some line about ADE, which occurs in some other viruses but we have not seen with Covid.

Gael23 · 02-08-2020 4:51pm

Once a vaccine is proven to work and licensed how long will it take to mass produce millions of doses?

Micky 32 · 02-08-2020 5:02pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Once a vaccine is proven to work and licensed how long will it take to mass produce millions of doses?

I remember reading somewhere that one company ( can’t remember which one) claimed they could make 2 billion doses within 2 months, could be wrong.

Marhay70 · 02-08-2020 5:31pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

I remember reading somewhere that one company ( can’t remember which one) claimed they could make 2 billion doses within 2 months, could be wrong.

India, the world's largest vaccine producer would be hard pushed to do that in a year. It's not just the vaccine, it's the bottles it comes in, the syringes to inject it, the PPE even the alcohol to swab the site. All these logistics come into play and then we must remember all the other vaccines and drugs we need, we can't just stop producing them.
I'm pretty sure all the stops will be pulled out once we have the vaccine but there are limitations.

seanb85 · 02-08-2020 5:49pm

Marhay70 wrote: »

India, the world's largest vaccine producer would be hard pushed to do that in a year. It's not just the vaccine, it's the bottles it comes in, the syringes to inject it, the PPE even the alcohol to swab the site. All these logistics come into play and then we must remember all the other vaccines and drugs we need, we can't just stop producing them.
I'm pretty sure all the stops will be pulled out once we have the vaccine but there are limitations.

Yep, the Serum Institute of India are the world's biggest vaccine producer and they are making 100m a month of the Oxford one.

They would normally produce 1.5b doses of other vaccines in a year.

Gael23 · 02-08-2020 9:40pm

So then hopefully by the time it’s approved there should be a good volume already produced and ready

Santy2015 · 03-08-2020 8:06pm

Documentary about the oxford vaccine on channel 4 at 9pm.

Hmmzis · 03-08-2020 8:29pm

Missed this one somehow, Derek Lowe has compiled a table of all the vaccine candidates that have published NHP challenge data:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/30/coronavirus-challenges-in-primates-compared

I hope the table will grow over the coming weeks and we'll see even more good data coming out the trials.

Hmmzis · 03-08-2020 10:11pm

Some hopefull news on the treatment side:

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/neurorx-relief-aviptadil-data/

A polypeptide that occurs in the lungs as a cytokine inhibitor made into a drug. Even with the low n it appears to have a very positive effect on critical patients. Fingers crossed for the ongoing RCT.

Marhay70 · 04-08-2020 12:15pm

Hmmzis wrote: »

Some hopefull news on the treatment side:

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/neurorx-relief-aviptadil-data/

A polypeptide that occurs in the lungs as a cytokine inhibitor made into a drug. Even with the low n it appears to have a very positive effect on critical patients. Fingers crossed for the ongoing RCT.

I would hope a lot more effort will be put into research on the treatment side. Vaccine is very important for those who don't have the virus but for those who do and are facing an uncertain prognosis, effective treatment is much more important. How available is this drug?

Micky 32 · 04-08-2020 2:35pm

I see the WHO being optimistic as ever about the vaccine. They reckon even if a safe effective vaccine comes out it won’t be a “silver bullet” in controlling the virus, if so what’s the point of having a vaccine??

Stark · 04-08-2020 2:44pm

Not quite sure what they mean exactly by it. Maybe they're thinking it'll be comparable to the flu vaccine, which though effective isn't a "silver bullet" for the flu. I think the coronavirus vaccine should have an advantage over the flu vaccine in that we only have one strain to worry about for the time being and the uptake should be a lot higher than the flu vaccine. But I imagine we'll always have to live with importing new coronavirus cases from poorer countries where vaccine uptake is low.

leahyl · 04-08-2020 2:45pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

I see the WHO being optimistic as ever about the vaccine. They reckon even if a safe effective vaccine comes out it won’t be a “silver bullet” in controlling the virus, if so what’s the point of having a vaccine??

Can't we have some positivity?

Micky 32 · 04-08-2020 2:48pm

leahyl wrote: »

Can't we have some positivity?

When the vaccine comes out i need to start travelling again to see family.

I just hope the government don’t carry on with their campaign on only essential travel despite an effective vaccine.

Deeper Blue · 04-08-2020 2:49pm

Maybe the WHO mean that COVID won't be eradicated completely, something similar to polio whereby boosters are required for people travelling to affected regions etc.

Oafley Jones · 04-08-2020 2:53pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

I see the WHO being optimistic as ever about the vaccine. They reckon even if a safe effective vaccine comes out it won’t be a “silver bullet” in controlling the virus, if so what’s the point of having a vaccine??

Apart from the possibility of dramatically reducing numbers and a easing of lockdowns etc? I don’t think anyone working on this was overly hopeful that we’d be able to disappear it. You might as well ask the question why we have flu vaccines etc.

Micky 32 · 04-08-2020 2:57pm

Oafley Jones wrote: »

Apart from the possibility of dramatically reducing numbers and a easing of lockdowns etc? I don’t think anyone working on this was overly hopeful that we’d be able to disappear it. You might as well ask the question why we have flu vaccines etc.

I understand that part of it, it’s just the way WHO come out with their statements that make it sound like a vaccine won’t make much difference.

timsey tiger · 04-08-2020 3:11pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

I just hope the government don’t carry on with their campaign on only essential travel despite an effective vaccine.

Yeah, that's a big worry alright. :rolleyes:

Hmmzis · 04-08-2020 3:15pm

A safe and effective vaccine will make a dramatic difference, once a large portion of the population has had it. The thing with this virus is that it has been running rampant through the world uncontrolled in a lot of places and has effectively become endemic.

We have very safe and effective vaccines against measles, polio, mumps, pertussis, HPV, smallpox, tuberculosis among many others. Apart from smallpox, they are all still a problem in the world. The richer countries will be able to afford and run mass vaccination campaigns and handle the logistics around it, for the developing world that is going to be a very difficult thing to do (even with a one time forever shot). Smallpox was eradicated with great difficulty and lots of time and resources spent on it, well worth the effort though, given how awful that disease was. Humanity was tantalisingly close to do the same to polio until some fools screwed it all up in the name of some political nonsense.

They key here is that while it will not go away anytime soon, safe and effective vaccines will curb the spread so that it's not a major concern anymore for everyday activities (work, travel, meet people, etc.). While SARS-cov-2 eradication would be beyond amazing to achieve, I'm afraid there will not be enough money and willpower to go that far.

Micky 32 · 04-08-2020 3:19pm

timsey tiger wrote: »

Yeah, that's a big worry alright. :rolleyes:

Can’t you go and troll someone else or at least contribute something useful?Thanks.

Hmmzis · 04-08-2020 3:21pm

Marhay70 wrote: »

I would hope a lot more effort will be put into research on the treatment side. Vaccine is very important for those who don't have the virus but for those who do and are facing an uncertain prognosis, effective treatment is much more important. How available is this drug?

From a quick read, it's a drug that was intended for an entirely different thing (erectile dysfunction), but doesn't appear to have gone into phase III trials yet, has been around for a couple of years and so far the phase I and II trials don't seem to have shown anything majorly wrong about it.

LiquidZeb · 04-08-2020 4:00pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

I see the WHO being optimistic as ever about the vaccine. They reckon even if a safe effective vaccine comes out it won’t be a “silver bullet” in controlling the virus, if so what’s the point of having a vaccine??

I think the WHO are talking on a more global scale there. Outright eradication of covid outside of OECD countries is really science fiction. Between massive numbers of people whose existence is unregistered by their countries, large rural populations and superstitions about science and modern medicine and just straight up expense it's unlikely that many third world countries will be seeing an end to covid bar herd immunity.

04-08-2020 4:12pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

I see the WHO being optimistic as ever about the vaccine. They reckon even if a safe effective vaccine comes out it won’t be a “silver bullet” in controlling the virus, if so what’s the point of having a vaccine??

Availability, uptake and rollout challenges will mean a vaccine will work alongside other measures for a time, and there is always the risk that a vaccine resistant strain will emerge, so continuous monitor of effectiveness will also be needed

Marhay70 · 04-08-2020 4:31pm

Hmmzis wrote: »

From a quick read, it's a drug that was intended for an entirely different thing (erectile dysfunction), but doesn't appear to have gone into phase III trials yet, has been around for a couple of years and so far the phase I and II trials don't seem to have shown anything majorly wrong about it.

Great, that'll solve two of older folks' problems in one go.:rolleyes:

Marhay70 · 04-08-2020 4:42pm

I think the WHO are also concerned about people dropping their guard regarding Covid if they think it has become less of a threat. We've already seen here in Ireland, the events around the reopening of Temple Bar and Penney's where people just seemed to forget there was still a problem, I think much the same will happen if they reopen the pubs next week, rationality just flies out the window.

timsey tiger · 04-08-2020 5:48pm

LiquidZeb wrote: »

I think the WHO are talking on a more global scale there. Outright eradication of covid outside of OECD countries is really science fiction. Between massive numbers of people whose existence is unregistered by their countries, large rural populations and superstitions about science and modern medicine and just straight up expense it's unlikely that many third world countries will be seeing an end to covid bar herd immunity.

We have done it before with smallpox and are getting very close with polio, with the immediacy of covid it will be done with this too.

It will probably be harder to generate herd immunity through vaccination in rich post truth/science societies.

Hmmzis · 04-08-2020 5:53pm

Derek Lowe's take on the Regeneron AB cocktail challenge data:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/08/04/regenerons-monoclonal-antibody-cocktail-in-primates

Looks good, shows similar levels of protection as the front-runner vaccines and works as a post-exposure prophylactic (though the doses have be quite high then).

On a different note, but similar topic, got a link form Reddit to an interview with the head researcher of the Russian vaccine effort. Will read it through (slowly, since my Russian has become a bit slow in the last decade or two) and post a synopsis if people are interested, the first couple sections looked quite interesting, i.e. it's a prime-boost double vector design.

Or, if your Russian is up to scratch, here is the link for you own reading:

https://meduza.io/feature/2020/07/23/sozdatel-rossiyskoy-vaktsiny-ot-koronavirusa-denis-logunov-dal-meduze-pervoe-bolshoe-intervyu-on-rasskazal-stoit-li-zhdat-privivok-k-sentyabryu-2020-goda

Marhay70 · 04-08-2020 6:31pm

Hmmzis wrote: »

Derek Lowe's take on the Regeneron AB cocktail challenge data:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/08/04/regenerons-monoclonal-antibody-cocktail-in-primates

Looks good, shows similar levels of protection as the front-runner vaccines and works as a post-exposure prophylactic (though the doses have be quite high then).

On a different note, but similar topic, got a link form Reddit to an interview with the head researcher of the Russian vaccine effort. Will read it through (slowly, since my Russian has become a bit slow in the last decade or two) and post a synopsis if people are interested, the first couple sections looked quite interesting, i.e. it's a prime-boost double vector design.

Or, if your Russian is up to scratch, here is the link for you own reading:

https://meduza.io/feature/2020/07/23/sozdatel-rossiyskoy-vaktsiny-ot-koronavirusa-denis-logunov-dal-meduze-pervoe-bolshoe-intervyu-on-rasskazal-stoit-li-zhdat-privivok-k-sentyabryu-2020-goda

Will Google not translate it more quickly for you. I know it's not perfect but if you have a working knowledge of the language it should be fairly obvious if something is way off.

Thierry12 · 04-08-2020 6:37pm

Marhay70 wrote: »

Will Google not translate it more quickly for you. I know it's not perfect but if you have a working knowledge of the language it should be fairly obvious if something is way off.

He wanted to boast about his Russian

Marhay70 · 04-08-2020 6:59pm

Thierry12 wrote: »

He wanted to boast about his Russian

Very condescending, he may just want to hone it. Anyway, not our place to pass judgement.
.

hmmm · 04-08-2020 7:41pm

LiquidZeb wrote: »

I think the WHO are talking on a more global scale there.

From what we've heard so far, let's assume vaccines cost 40 euros a head. That's very affordable for rich countries, but multiply that by 8 billion and the figures get scarier. Even worse if it turns out to be an annual vaccine. Poorer countries simply can't afford this, and it puts us all at risk if it's left to spread around the world.

NaFirinne · 04-08-2020 7:48pm

hmmm wrote: »

From what we've heard so far, let's assume vaccines cost 40 euros a head. That's very affordable for rich countries, but multiply that by 8 billion and the figures get scarier. Even worse if it turns out to be an annual vaccine. Poorer countries simply can't afford this, and it puts us all at risk if it's left to spread around the world.

The Vaccine should be free.

charlie14 · 04-08-2020 7:51pm

hmmm wrote: »

From what we've heard so far, let's assume vaccines cost 40 euros a head. That's very affordable for rich countries, but multiply that by 8 billion and the figures get scarier. Even worse if it turns out to be an annual vaccine. Poorer countries simply can't afford this, and it puts us all at risk if it's left to spread around the world.

Charge 50 euros in the rich countries with the extra going to subsidise the poorer countries would be my suggestion

It would be in the interest of the richer countries if as many as possible were vaccinated worldwide.

hmmm · 04-08-2020 7:53pm

NaFirinne wrote: »

The Vaccine should be free.

Someone has to pay the costs for manufacturing and development.

I imagine in Ireland & most rich countries the government will distribute the vaccine for free.

hmmm · 04-08-2020 8:07pm

A million caveats on this as proper trials have not been completed, but potential good news on a treatment
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/neurorx-relief-aviptadil-data/

Marhay70 · 04-08-2020 8:40pm

NaFirinne wrote: »

The Vaccine should be free.

Cost won't matter to you anyway, will it?

Marhay70 · 04-08-2020 8:47pm

hmmm wrote: »

A million caveats on this as proper trials have not been completed, but potential good news on a treatment
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/neurorx-relief-aviptadil-data/

Have we in Ireland any history of approving medication before it's proven, a la Remdesivir in the U.S.? Not necessarily this particular one but ones that have been used to treat other ailments besides Covid.

Gael23 · 04-08-2020 10:04pm

Any developments on the oxford vaccine in the past few days?

Hmmzis · 04-08-2020 10:06pm

Marhay70 wrote: »

Will Google not translate it more quickly for you. I know it's not perfect but if you have a working knowledge of the language it should be fairly obvious if something is way off.

Cheers, the translated version is rather excellent, even with a bit of the dry humour preserved.

Quick highlights for those who are interested:

- it's a prime-boost regimen vaccine based on two human adenoviral vectors, one for the prime, the other for the boost. No mention of the types AD viruses in use. The different AD in the boost apparently makes the response more pronounced and reliable.

- vaccine platform has been used in their Ebola vaccine that was approved and their MERS candidate that has got to phase II trials.

- pre-clinical trials involved various animals - mice, hamsters, rhesus macaques and marmosets. The hamsters and macaques were challenged, both species were protected. They'll publish their data some time later in an international journal (he says 42 days, but I'm not sure from what date that counts).

- phase I has gone well so far, 76 volunteers, data is looking good and no serious adverse reactions have been noted. Just the regular - fever, swelling at injection site and pain at injection site.

- phase I data is being compiled now and will be used by their health ministry for the approval of the next phase (in our terms, that would be phase II/III). That would be expected to start in August all going well.

- phase II/II will include 2000 volunteers from different clinical backgrounds (apparently no children or the elderly will be allowed in that)

- they might get a limited use allowance for risk groups if phase I data is supportive of that.

- earliest full approval is 6 months after phase II/III has started, all going well.

- They have partnered with 3 other Russian companies to produce the vaccine, their own institute can produce about 3-5 million doses a year.

timsey tiger · 04-08-2020 10:38pm

hmmm wrote: »

Someone has to pay the costs for manufacturing and development.

I imagine in Ireland & most rich countries the government will distribute the vaccine for free.

They should pay people €500 to take it.

LiquidZeb · 04-08-2020 10:59pm

timsey tiger wrote: »

They should pay people €500 to take it.

Why? Its in people's best interest to take the vaccine why should they need financial incentive?

timsey tiger · 04-08-2020 11:18pm

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Why? Its in people's best interest to take the vaccine why should they need financial incentive?

It's in societies best interest that people take the vaccine. Many won't for a myriad of reasons, an extra incentive would help.

Some people on here don't think it is in their interest to take a "rushed vaccine" for a disease they think won't affect them that badly. They don't care or haven't thought about the people they might infect.

LiquidZeb · 04-08-2020 11:21pm

timsey tiger wrote: »

It's in societies best interest that people take the vaccine. Many won't for a myriad of reasons, an extra incentive would help.

Some people on here don't think it is in their interest to take a "rushed vaccine" for a disease they think won't affect them that badly. They don't care or haven't thought about the people they might infect.

If someone won't take the vaccine over some irrational health concern then surely bribing them won't change their mind?

timsey tiger · 04-08-2020 11:25pm

LiquidZeb wrote: »

If someone won't take the vaccine over some irrational health concern then surely bribing them won't change their mind?

How many of these really are out there.

Can't you think of any group that might be more likely to take the vaccine if incentivised. (hint young people out of work).

LiquidZeb · 04-08-2020 11:34pm

timsey tiger wrote: »

How many of these really are out there.

Can't you think of any group that might be more likely to take the vaccine if incentivised. (hint young people out of work).

The problem is the antivax crowd are a very loud minority. We had one a few nights ago here and he basically shanghaied the entire discussion with his nonsense. Once a vaccine rolls out next spring god willing, they'll be all over social media banging their drum. Even if only one in every thousand is put off it's still damaging. I can see the logic of your idea but I don't think the government could afford it by next year.

Gael23 · 04-08-2020 11:38pm

LiquidZeb wrote: »

The problem is the antivax crowd are a very loud minority. We had one a few nights ago here and he basically shanghaied the entire discussion with his nonsense. Once a vaccine rolls out next spring god willing, they'll be all over social media banging their drum. Even if only one in every thousand is put off it's still damaging. I can see the logic of your idea but I don't think the government could afford it by next year.

Which vaccine do you think we’ll see next spring?

Charles Babbage · 04-08-2020 11:40pm

timsey tiger wrote: »

How many of these really are out there.

Can't you think of any group that might be more likely to take the vaccine if incentivised. (hint young people out of work).

Make a vaccine a requirement of having a job or getting the dole (as not getting one would be making you unemployable).

meanwhile more progress on a vaccine. The more runners in the race the more likely there will be finishers.

Novavax, the little-known Maryland company that received $1.6 billion from the federal government to produce an experimental coronavirus vaccine, announced encouraging results in two preliminary studies on Tuesday.

In one study, 56 volunteers produced a high level of antibodies against the virus without any dangerous side effects. In the other, researchers found that the vaccine strongly protected monkeys from coronavirus infections.

There are other vaccines that are further along with clinical trials, but Novavax’s stands out because it is protein-based — the same proven technology used for existing vaccines against diseases like shingles — which could make it safer and easier to manufacture in large amounts.

LiquidZeb · 04-08-2020 11:42pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Which vaccine do you think we’ll see next spring?

Oxford and moderna hopefully. Both teams are very optimistic and so is Dr Fauci in America. They're both manufacturing at a potential loss and have been for a while now.

hmmm · 05-08-2020 12:17am

Some commentary on the Novavax results
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/health/covid-19-vaccine-novavax.html

Note that the US has placed a big bet on this vaccine ($1.6bn)

"Although it’s not possible to directly compare the data from clinical trials of different coronavirus vaccines, John Moore, a virologist at Weill Cornell Medicine who was not involved in the studies, said the Novavax results were the most impressive he had seen so far.

“This is the first one I’m looking at and saying, ‘Yeah, I’d take that,’” Dr. Moore said."

"Sanofi and Novavax both manufacture their vaccines inside the cells of the fall armyworm moth, which allows them to be produced more quickly than older methods that use mammal cells. This technique is one reason Novavax’s vaccine candidate has gotten so much attention — in addition to its deal with the U.S. government, the company has also secured up to $388 million from the nonprofit Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, which seeks to make vaccines available outside of the United States. Sanofi’s Flublok vaccine, which is already on the market, uses this technology."

hmmm · 05-08-2020 1:00am

Oops I can see this one getting wings. Statnews put out an article on the Novavax results, and (incorrectly) stated that some of the participants had to be hospitalised due to adverse reactions. They've now corrected this, but there was a bit of plunge in the Novavax stock price after hours.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyo7-tP5B-4

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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