FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

ninebeanrows · 03-02-2021 7:42am

Nice EC! Would prefer better uppers at 144hrs though.

You know something is afoot when meteociel is struggling at 642am

ninebeanrows · 03-02-2021 7:42am

The potential snow-storm at 192hrs to boot.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2021 7:45am

At some point Atlantic fronts are going to come up against entrenched very cold continental air. Definitely to be watched but when is completely unknown.

ECM1-192.GIF?03-12

bazlers · 03-02-2021 7:46am

I can see the build up thread getting updated. I dont think the frog could resist..:)

JanuarySnowstor · 03-02-2021 7:48am

I keep harping on about heights not sustaining to our North. At 192hrs it looks like a massive snowstorm but look North and no decent heights over Greenland.
Just being picky but sorry it ain't a proper Easterly rather we benefit hugely from very cold air in Continental Europe

Villain · 03-02-2021 8:42am

The ECM 850 temps for the auld archive:

Getting closer now but still a risk of some minor changes that could downgrade the depth of length of cold we see.

The risk of a breakthrough also brings the risk of a disruptive snow though with battleground setups appearing. Very interesting to watch this one unfold.

Meteorite58 · 03-02-2021 8:56am

Very cold charts from the ECM this morning. Full of intrigue. Currently showing the possibility of big frontal snow events later next week. Hard frosts each night and cold days. Certainly lots of possibilities for snow in the NE, E and SE earlier next week and could be more countrywide thereafter depending on how a large area of LP or depression tracks crossing the Atlantic towards and close to or over Ireland around next Thurs or Fri. Could even be classified as a storm and could get quite windy too but too early to know.

lucernarian · 03-02-2021 11:27am

It's been very quiet in here given that the 06z GFS has rolled out - any updates for those of us not able to check it right now?

bosco12345 · 03-02-2021 11:31am

lucernarian wrote: »

It's been very quiet in here given that the 06z GFS has rolled out - any updates for those of us not able to check it right now?

Very quiet, come on lads, keep the eye candy rolling in so I can get even more hyped

bazlers · 03-02-2021 11:31am

Feature of the altlantic lows possibly running a little further south.

Darwin · 03-02-2021 11:32am

GFS 6z still cold/snowy Sunday onwards, but appears to bring things to an early end late Wednesday / early Thursday with the incursion of milder air from the south.

Longing · 03-02-2021 11:32am

06z GFS is a bit of a downgrade stalls the cold and brings in the milder air in sooner aswell. Long term cold with this run is a no go.

Edit: Actually looking back on previous GFS 06 runs the GFS is like some of our politicians jumping from one party to the other

Reckless Abandonment · 03-02-2021 11:35am

Gfs is very good . It continues the trend. The lows that end the party only have to drop more south to keep things very interesting. And as we've already seen the gfs has been correcting lows to the south all week.

Stevieluvsye · 03-02-2021 11:37am

Yes, i'm of the opinion that it is good also. I can see this cold spell lasting the week (If not longer)

munsterlegend · 03-02-2021 11:40am

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Gfs is very good . It continues the trend. The lows that end the party only have to drop more south to keep things very interesting. And as we've already seen the gfs has been correcting lows to the south all week.

The U.K. Met office are of a similar view.

TonyMaloney · 03-02-2021 11:46am

The GEFS mean is looking very interesting. Lows sliding under, and sustained cold winds from the East so far.

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 11:49am

I think we could say a 2-3 day easterly is looking pretty likely now if we have the same or better charts by this evening, obviously time to change still but the signal is strong for that at least. What I'd like to see now would be upgrades in the medium term say Wednesday to Thursday to look for any signs of the cold spell persisting.

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 12:17pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

The U.K. Met office are of a similar view.

The GFS control for now seems to reflect the Mogrep- the UK in house model- view. The poster insisting it will be brief might be wrong.

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 12:17pm

ICON better at +120 on the 6z. Cold further south with lows under cutting

munsterlegend · 03-02-2021 12:20pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The GFS control for now seems to reflect the Mogrep- the UK in house model- view The poster insisting it will be brief might be wrong.

They have been calling this for 2 weeks now.

Longing · 03-02-2021 12:25pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The GFS control for now seems to reflect the Mogrep- the UK in house model- view The poster insisting it will be brief might be wrong.

Yes Nacho I hope I am wrong. Reverse psychology hoping it pays off.;):p

munsterlegend · 03-02-2021 12:27pm

Longing wrote: »

Yes Nacho I hope I am wrong. Reverse psychology hoping it pays off.;):p

Going on trends all those Atlantic lows tend to be drifting further South. Wouldn’t mind it clipping the south west all the same!

Supercell · 03-02-2021 12:33pm

Good heavens, the fax T120 absolutely screams potential, look at those lovely convergence lines to the north..wow..coming soon to an Irish East coast near you too!
Lows bumping off the icelandic high...528 dam already down across the country..

bazlers · 03-02-2021 12:43pm

Supercell wrote: »

Good heavens, the fax T120 absolutely screams potential, look at those lovely convergence lines to the north..wow..coming soon to an Irish East coast near you too!
Lows bumping off the icelandic high...528 dam already down across the country..

Unfortunately im getting excited already. Im going to pay for that.

fred funk }{ · 03-02-2021 12:55pm

bazlers wrote: »

Unfortunately im getting excited already. Im going to pay for that.

And the kiss of death, telling others of the incoming blizzard.

03-02-2021 12:58pm

fred funk }{ wrote: »

And the kiss of death, telling others of the incoming blizzard.

Weathercheck did that already on the 5 to 8am rte radio forecast,so should be OK:D

highdef · 03-02-2021 1:07pm

AuntySnow wrote: »

Weathercheck did that already on the 5 to 8am rte radio forecast,so should be OK:D

Here's the link to that forecast, for anyone who missed it - https://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/share/radio1/21903382

lucernarian · 03-02-2021 1:08pm

highdef wrote: »

Here's the link to that forecast, for anyone who missed it - https://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/share/radio1/21903382

Appropriate to say "One of us! One of us!"?

munsterlegend · 03-02-2021 1:16pm

lucernarian wrote: »

Appropriate to say "One of us! One of us!"?

He’s one of our own..

Slashermcguirk · 03-02-2021 1:41pm

So will we by the looks of things :-)

Tzardine wrote: »

Th UK looks like they are going to be hammered with snow.

Fuppin grassholes.

TonyMaloney · 03-02-2021 1:42pm

I've always said perturbation 23 was the best of all the perturbations.

Ask anyone

Slashermcguirk · 03-02-2021 1:44pm

That is a thing of beauty

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I've always said perturbation 23 was the best of all the perturbations.

Ask anyone

esposito · 03-02-2021 1:54pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

That is a thing of beauty

Although it’s small at present, there is the chance that the rest of February could remain significantly cold with the SSW effects? Small chance for now.

Slashermcguirk · 03-02-2021 1:56pm

I agree, it’s mad how often in Ireland that February and March deliver so much better for snow than December and January. You would think it would be the opposite with the shorter days. Late February and early March have delivered quite frequently, would be great to get something memorable in early February

quote="esposito;116151215"]Although it’s small at present, there is the chance that the rest of February could remain significantly cold with the SSW effects? Small chance for now.[/quote]

Arduach · 03-02-2021 2:17pm

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I've always said perturbation 23 was the best of all the perturbations.

Ask anyone

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED????:D

arctictree · 03-02-2021 2:22pm

I wonder did we ever get a purple to hit Ireland? Whats that, -15 Uppers?

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 2:25pm

arctictree wrote: »

I wonder did we ever get a purple to hit Ireland? Whats that, -15 Uppers?

I think we did from a bitter northerly during the Christmas holidays at one stage during the 90s. I can't remember the year, maybe Syran could shed more light on it. What I do remember is an intensely cold but dry and sunny cold spell, we had sub zero temperatures day and night. I remember Scotland in particular getting daytime highs below -20C but I think it was also dry there too. We had a snowy Christmas holiday event as well in 2000 I think but that spell was not quite as cold as it was an unstable easterly.

Slashermcguirk · 03-02-2021 2:27pm

I think even -20. Central Sweden and Norway are between -15 and -20 degrees this week with a lot of snow. Helsinki has been pounded recently too

I see even Berlin and Copenhagen much further south are also much colder this week than recent weeks and they are going much colder over the coming days

arctictree wrote: »

I wonder did we ever get a purple to hit Ireland? Whats that, -15 Uppers?

bazlers · 03-02-2021 2:30pm

What are we thinking wind strength here if this comes off.
A little lighter than Feb 2018 episode?

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 2:32pm

Charts are looking really good now for the most part for a decent 2 to 4 day cold spell next week. There is still uncertainty about how cold it will get, how much snow we will see and how long the cold spell will last. If we can maintain this trend throughout today and tonight then we should be starting to feel more confident.

Everything we have posted over the past day or so should really belong in the up to 120 hour thread by this point, however due to the very confusing modeling with all the ups and downs, the posts are better off in here due to all the uncertainty. I prefer that the charts being posted in the shorter range technical thread contain model data that has a high confidence level. If we can maintain the cold trend right through today I think we will start posting in the other thread soon and keep this thread for charts that are at least a week away.

bazlers · 03-02-2021 2:32pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I think even -20. Central Sweden and Norway are between -15 and -20 degrees this week with a lot of snow. Helsinki has been pounded recently too

I see even Berlin and Copenhagen much further south are also much colder this week than recent weeks and they are going much colder over the coming days

If we develop a Scandi high with that entrenched cold...well enough said.

DOCARCH · 03-02-2021 2:42pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Charts are looking really good now for the most part for a decent 2 to 4 day cold spell next week.

Things looking up when Gonzo is positive!

Darwin · 03-02-2021 2:43pm

arctictree wrote: »

I wonder did we ever get a purple to hit Ireland? Whats that, -15 Uppers?

The closest I can find is from 1982, but uppers never reaching purple level:

Night time temps during December 2010 reached lows of -17.5c in Mayo, again the uppers temps not in the purple zone. Interesting readup on 2010 here:

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/ColdSpell10.pdf

Apologies for going off-topic.

Danno · 03-02-2021 2:49pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Charts are looking really good now for the most part for a decent 2 to 4 day cold spell next week. There is still uncertainty about how cold it will get, how much snow we will see and how long the cold spell will last. If we can maintain this trend throughout today and tonight then we should be starting to feel more confident.

I agree with this Gonzo, but an extended run of cold is quite a possibility I feel. Now this is only gut feeling talking here but:

* The Atlantic has been quite weak for a long time now. Apart from a wet fart of a gale gust here at the end of January (40mph) I cannot ever remember a January in recent times that didn't give some sort of a storm.

* With the cold air well in over the whole island, any attempts by the Atlantic to get back in will be weak affairs, for a time at least.

* Look at Scotland the last fortnight and even parts of NI (N. Antrim and N. Derry) where the Atlantic has been stalling, if this zone gets shifted 250 miles SW we could be in for a run of Atlantic fronts freezing over us and petering out their snow.

As others say, get the cold in place first then look for the moisture. All to play for and the trends have been our friend so far.

One last thing I want to see as we end this week is for soil temperatures to drop rapidly. A few clear frosty nights would be a blessing for keeping snow on the ground longer term should that arrive.

Nqp15hhu · 03-02-2021 2:51pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I think we did from a bitter northerly during the Christmas holidays at one stage during the 90s. I can't remember the year, maybe Syran could shed more light on it. What I do remember is an intensely cold but dry and sunny cold spell, we had sub zero temperatures day and night. I remember Scotland in particular getting daytime highs below -20C but I think it was also dry there too. We had a snowy Christmas holiday event as well in 2000 I think but that spell was not quite as cold as it was an unstable easterly.

The lowest maximum in Scotland is -15.9c.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-extremes

Nqp15hhu · 03-02-2021 2:52pm

arctictree wrote: »

I wonder did we ever get a purple to hit Ireland? Whats that, -15 Uppers?

I think we had that in the easterly of 2013 (or maybe 2018). It’s not impossible. I’m sure it’s happened more than a few times.

Considering we get down to at least -10c at some point in most winters.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2021 2:52pm

The deeper cold air is being advected this way a good bit more efficiently than this time yesterday when there was more shortwave disruption in the North Sea. I think we'll go colder closer the weekend on the output myself.

compsys · 03-02-2021 2:54pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I agree, it’s mad how often in Ireland that February and March deliver so much better for snow than December and January. You would think it would be the opposite with the shorter days. Late February and early March have delivered quite frequently, would be great to get something memorable in early February

quote="esposito;116151215"]Although it’s small at present, there is the chance that the rest of February could remain significantly cold with the SSW effects? Small chance for now.

[/QUOTE]

Not at all. There's always a time lag.

February is often the coldest month in a lot of northern hemisphere countries.

I think some of the confusion arises because many in Ireland regard February as spring.

But meteorologically speaking, February is very much a winter month, so there should be no surprise that it's often the coldest and snowiest.

Also sea temps in Feb and March are at their lowest so for an island like us in particular it means we often get our coldest weather around this time of year.

Nqp15hhu · 03-02-2021 2:58pm

Spring doesn’t properly kick into gear here until April.

Calibos · 03-02-2021 2:59pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The deeper cold air is being advected this way a good bit more efficiently than this time yesterday when there was more shortwave disruption in the North Sea. I think we'll go colder closer the weekend on the output myself.

Touch and Go with the isobars on that last frame for me in Bray. Either I get lucky and have the longest sea fetch possible from Blackpool and Morecambe Bay for powerful streamers galore.....or......I have the shortest Sea fetch possible because of the Anglesey Shadow

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST