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Winter 20/21 - General Discussion
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icesnowfrost wrote: »If things are to be believed. Each run just keeps looking better. I’m still not convinced yet as how many times have the models let us down but there’s so much potential showing up for Christmas Day snow.
In order to get the forecast for Louth, you can type in Dundalk or Drogheda rather than the county of Louth.
Not that much real cold on offer with this mornings ensembles, there is just one run going into the freezer for the Christmas period, the others are everything inbetween standard cold and very mild.0 -
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Lol silly mistake on my behalf with location but yeah it’s up and down but still good signs. See how the rest of the GFS runs play out. Blocking trying to take hold. It’s way better reading than last year at this time that’s for sure.In order to get the forecast for Louth, you can type in Dundalk or Drogheda rather than the county of Louth.
Not that much real cold on offer with this mornings ensembles, there is just one run going into the freezer for the Christmas period, the others are everything inbetween standard cold and very mild.0 -
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Rock Lesnar wrote: »Real heavy rain here now in Meath, and the sky has an orange glow to it
Snap, just posted likewise on the Convection page in error. Should have been over here.
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Squeaksoutloud wrote: »We seem to follow a very similar December pattern these past few years. An early cold spell around the first week and gets you in a festive mood then mild Atlantic driven weather right through to New Year with only the odd colder day. Anyone else notice this? Then the cold doesn't arrive until March when we want the Spring weather to be arriving!
Seems to be the major pattern for the last 5 years maybe.
This chart shows the average max temp for each 7 day running period for the last quart of the year for the period 2011-2019 (red line. Blue is just this year to compare) on a national level. We see that overall, there is a gradual decline in temps between October and late November, before they bottom out during early December, and if anything, begins to show a small rise thereafter.
(data is from Met Eireann)New Moon
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We had a nice orange glow ourselves in the morning sky here in Mayo today. There was a lovely splash of colour in the eastern sky around sunrise. It did not last long however as the grey murk soon rolled in to give a damp and dreary December day. Still raining on and off out there at present. 9c.
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daniel_t1409 wrote: »Ugh, I hate the long evenings in the summer. Just feels weird for it to be 22:00 and still bright outside. Don't mind the early mornings though, love getting up early to watch sunrise
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Oh God, the thoughts of being up at 5am to watch sunrise doesn't sound too enticing, unless I'm still up from the night before. Nice weather in the summer combined with late sunsets is heaven and is literally the only thing that has kept me from moving to the likes of southern france or italy, where summer sunsets are a fair bit earlier especially in southern italy.0 -
daniel_t1409 wrote: »Ugh, I hate the long evenings in the summer. Just feels weird for it to be 22:00 and still bright outside. Don't mind the early mornings though, love getting up early to watch sunrise.
Complete opposite here. There's little more depressing than looking out the window at 4pm and it being almost dark. I tend to be a bit of a night owl so not unusual for me to get up at 12-1 on weekends and you've only 2 hours of actual daylight left. Vitamin D supplements ftw.
It is a nice novelty around Christmas with the lights, but if I could have 16-hour days year round, I'd take them.0 -
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daniel_t1409 wrote: »What's new :rolleyes:
Is christmas period itself a write-off?
Chistmas is not a write off yet as it is still 2 weeks away and plenty can change over the next week, however the charts have become more uneventful with each run and we have a fairly average to mild Atlantic setup between now and the 21st of December. Perhaps over time the jet will dip futher southwards to allow us into the colder air nearer to Christmas. For now all is still to play for but so far the mild and Atlantic is winning despite the blocking that is set up and forecast to strength over the next week with an increasingly negative NAO and AO.
We also have a warming taking place that looks to fall just short of a SSW, this may or may not affect us come January, only time will tell. it appears this warming won't be enough to completely split the PV, it will stretch it somewhat and maybe displace it further south so not really a proper SSW.
Compared to last winter and the winter before that at least we have a few building blocks in place but none of it looks convincing enough to summon a beast in time for Christmas or the run up to the New Year.0 -
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I have to say that I am the opposite and love those long evenings in June when the twilight lingers long in the northwestern sky. On a clear night, you might be lucky and have the added bonus of some noctilucent clouds brightening up the northern horizon into the wee hours.daniel_t1409 wrote: »Ugh, I hate the long evenings in the summer. Just feels weird for it to be 22:00 and still bright outside. Don't mind the early mornings though, love getting up early to watch sunrise.
I don't mind the winter as such and love the prospect of a snow chase though they rarely come to fruition. There is no logic to why I like it but I think it is the inner child in me that still loves that hypnotic trance of watching snowflakes fall at night as they are lit up by an outside light.
It is the blue skies that I probably like the most in any season. Cold, crisp, frosty weather will do me nicely in the winter and even though we are no strangers to rain here in the west, I really despise those grey days of rain that we can get in the winter when the temperature remains around 4 or 5 degrees.
If I could cherry pick a few days, I would take the weather that we had at the end of last May and over the June bank holiday weekend. That was glorious!0 -
Goldfinch8 wrote: »I have to say that I am the opposite and love those long evenings in June when the twilight lingers long in the northwestern sky. On a clear night, you might be lucky and have the added bonus of some noctilucent clouds brightening up the northern horizon into the wee hours.
I don't mind the winter as such and love the prospect of a snow chase though they rarely come to fruition. There is no logic to why I like it but I think it is the inner child in me that still loves that hypnotic trance of watching snowflakes fall at night as they are lit up by an outside light.
It is the blue skies that I probably like the most in any season. Cold, crisp, frosty weather will do me nicely in the winter and even though we are no strangers to rain here in the west, I really despise those grey days of rain that we can get in the winter when the temperature remains around 4 or 5 degrees.
If I could cherry pick a few days, I would take the weather that we had at the end of last May and over the June bank holiday weekend. That was glorious!
fully agree
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daniel_t1409 wrote: »Wow, I'm the only one who doesn't really like the long evenings in summer? I don't mind it being bright until 8-9pm, but after 10pm it just seems too late to be bright. Or maybe I'm having bad memories of this year's awful summer.
I like the long evenings in summer but I also like the late sunrises in winter. I'm not keen on sunrise being so early during summer, sometimes I go to sleep after the sun is up during summer which I don't enjoy doing.0 -
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Chistmas is not a write off yet as it is still 2 weeks away and plenty can change over the next week, however the charts have become more uneventful with each run and we have a fairly average to mild Atlantic setup between now and the 21st of December. Perhaps over time the jet will dip futher southwards to allow us into the colder air nearer to Christmas. For now all is still to play for but so far the mild and Atlantic is winning despite the blocking that is set up and forecast to strength over the next week with an increasingly negative NAO and AO.
We also have a warming taking place that looks to fall just short of a SSW, this may or may not affect us come January, only time will tell. it appears this warming won't be enough to completely split the PV, it will stretch it somewhat and maybe displace it further south so not really a proper SSW.
Compared to last winter and the winter before that at least we have a few building blocks in place but none of it looks convincing enough to summon a beast in time for Christmas or the run up to the New Year.
The warming in the cart is going to be affected by the positioning of the Russian high.
Two weeks ago polish forecasting agency released there long range weather forecast.
They were forecasting this warming and basically said the Russian high will dictate what will happen.
Two main scenarios.
The Russian high will push further north and east bringing a near direct northerly blast to eastern and central Europe
This would be a very snowy picture for central Europe as you would have a feed of moisture been steered up from the south meeting the cold air from the north.
Or the high will start to move east and more southern bringing a north east blast.
Both are cold and snowy for eastern and central Europe although this would also bring much colder temperatures
But for Ireland the second would be more preferable as an easterly would be easier sourced.0 -
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