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Winter 2017-18: Discussion
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milli milli wrote: »I'm choosing to focus on this rather than the other predictions!
I really hope the mild wet weather predictions are wrong.
The last 2 winters there was NO snow days to speak of, where I lived. Maybe a couple of flakes in the sky that disappeared when they touched the ground. It was a major disappointment
I don't even need a Big Freeze but just a few days of snow showers and decent snow cover would satisfy me.
Just want to ask - if the results in the link are a good chance the weather could be cold, then why is everyone else predicting mild?
Is it because the link is for U.K. weather and they are more sheltered from the Atlantic?
Some people want to be more optimistic than others - and sometimes they do it out of hope but other times, they do it to get views and sales; just look at the likes of James Madden or Nathan Rao.
I have a couple of reasons why I'm not hopeful for Winter 2017/18. Firstly, I was extremely disappointed with Winter 2016/17 seeing all the signs that were showing especially for the earlier part of the Winter to be colder than the latter half. This was false, both December and February were very mild with January rather mild. As a result, I'm lowering my expectations and I'd rather be shocked or stunned than disappointed. Secondly, we're not in the ideal part of the solar cycle for a cold Winter - although you can never guarantee with our weather (like the Winter of 1981/82 was at the same stage this solar cycle is in). But unlike that solar cycle which was solar cycle 20, solar cycle 24 (2008-present) has been much weaker and has been the weakest solar cycle since solar cycle 16 or 12. Recently, we've had a huge spike in sunspot numbers - possibly the highest spike since early 2016 or late 2015. I will be researching on previous solar cycles to see if this is a common occurrence with weak solar cycles - as meteorologists have claimed, and the winters that followed these huge spikes in sunspot numbers out of nowhere towards solar minimum. Thirdly, one of the things we look at for predicting the Winter is the NAO in May. This May had a negative NAO but the SST anomalies made it look like we had a neutral NAO. The only neutral NAO I can find since 1900 is 1979/80 which was a close to average Winter in terms of temperatures but with only one Winter to consider for this, it's making it very difficult.
Winter 1990/91 proves that no matter if all the methodology is against a cold Winter, it doesn't mean it can't be one but as I said, I'd rather lower my expectations and be shocked or stunned than be hyped and then disappointed.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Join Date:Posts: 24484
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In laymans language what does this meanhatrickpatrick wrote: »NAO looks to be trending negative? Too early to say obviously but most of the spaghetti predictions seem to be on the negative side.
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Fairly content with the possibility of some good storms this winter, nice and interesting.
Of course then I decided to read back over a few snow threads. Let's just say I think it'll be another winter of disappointment in that aspect! 0 -
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Getting off topic a little bit but I'm looking at the colours for the North Atlantic.
Is that what they call a tri pole?
And what does that normally mean for 'our' weather?
This is a tri pole (see the North Atlantic Ocean) in the chart below that I have marked. The bands have to go in that order: warm, cold and warm. If they don't, it's not a tri pole. A tri pole in other words is a very negative NAO index. You don't need to have a tri pole to have a negative NAO index as long as there is blocking up to Greenland, Iceland or the Arctic.
A tri pole in May before the Winter is a methodology used and made by the UK Met Office since the late 2000s. This is because there is evidence according to the UKMO that if a tri pole occurs in May, it has a high chance of being there for the succeeding Winter. They say May specifically because on average, it is the month of the year where westerlies are at their lowest strength. This leads to the higher likelihood of other wind directions such as northerlies or easterlies development which according to the evidence can carry on into the Winter. 2010 was such an example. May 2010 had a tri pole as you can see in the chart and then the December to remember took place in the Winter succeeding it.
Whilst a negative NAO can still bring a mild Winter such was the case in 1997/98 though in my opinion that was down to a Very Strong El Nino event taking place then, a tri pole has a very small likelihood of bringing a mild Winter. Even saying that, do not rely on the tri pole method or NAO for predicting the Winter. Everything else has to setup just right with these which is why it's so hard for us to get snow or cold winters.
The current SST anomalies in the Atlantic is not a tri pole as the majority of the Atlantic is just rather warm. But it is not far from a tri pole!
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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He's 100% right on the 1740-41 famine. Proportionately many more killed than during the potato famine of the 1840s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Famine_(1740%E2%80%9341)
Also a bug bear of mine is people tend to think there was only one irish famine. Post Cromwell 1660s a very bad one, late 1870s, 1890 in parts of the country to name just a few off the top of my head. Most centuries had a few famines. Well documented in The Annals of the Four Masters etc.
Every day's a school day. Still can't stand him though 0 -
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Around the same numbers killed in both, (1million is a fairly accepted figure for both), however far off Mr. Healy (fantasy) Raes 3million figure.
As you say, it was proportionally bigger, as the population was quite low (2.7 million) in the former.
That's it 38% as opposed to 1 million out of 8 million from famine in the 1840s 12.5%, who died from actual starvation. A catastrophe buried by folk memory of the more recent major famine.
Healy Rae had a lot of half truths, 1816 the year without a summer after Tambora eruption etc. He muddled it up and spoke with such colloquial ineloquence that the comment section of online newspapers etc had a field day
I'd say he mixed up the figure of the actual population in 1739/40 with the fatalities.
Regardless of the subject of climate change as a whole it's ironic he was denounced totally by know it alls who actually knew nothing on some of the specifics he hit on. The year without a summer, 1740/41 famine, 1870s wet years etc. If ever the saying a wise man will learn from a fool but a fool will never learn from a wise man was more apt!
A lot of people don't realise..still.. how clever the Healy Raes are in pitching to their constituents. The wisest fools in Christendom.0 -
ENSO is continuing to give me headaches on what it will turn out like for Winter 2017/18. About a week ago, it was clearly showing La Nina signature but that signature has now disappeared within the space of a week.
The Atlantic is generally warm again so that is not doing us any favours BUT at least it's better than it being cold with the infamous cold blob that we had during the previous few Winters, most notably in Winter 2015/16.
The QBO is clearly in an easterly phase. For anybody who doesn't know, the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) is an index that tells you the state of the westerlies. If the QBO is in a westerly phase, it means that the westerlies are intensified through the Atlantic. But if the QBO is in an easterly phase, it means that the westerlies are weakened through the Atlantic. Winter 2009/10 had an easterly QBO, Winter 1946/47 had an easterly QBO and Winter 1962/63 had an easterly QBO - just three notable examples. Going by historical evidence, an easterly QBO is good for a Winter as it weakens the westerlies and makes it easier for blocking to take place therefore. However, like any other factor or methodology in forecasting our weather, it is not any guarantee and is to be treated with equal attention as any other factor. For example, Winter 1990/91 (which had a notably cold February - less so for Ireland though as it was in the UK) had a westerly QBO but Winter 1997/98 (which had a very strong El Nino and the warmest February on record) had an easterly QBO.
One of the reasons why we were so unlucky in Winter 2016/17 for a cold Winter was the QBO. It was meant to be in an easterly phrase but something happened in the atmosphere to cause the westerlies to become stronger and destroy the chances of the easterly QBO coming for 2016/17. Instead, we had a westerly QBO. Here's one example during 2016/17 where we could have been in a bitter cold spell but due to the westerly QBO, it was very temporary and not all that cold (10 February 2017):
The westerlies outdid the Scandinavian block a few days later and we were firmly in an Atlantic onslaught. If we get the blocking going, at least there won't be any intensified westerlies this time to make it only very temporary.
Solar activity is at low levels but we are still not at solar minimum yet which should be achieved by 2019 or 2020. The best chances for cold winters using solar activity methodology is just after solar minimum like 1995/96, 1996/97, 2009/10 or 2010/11 for recent examples.
The Siberian high is very strong right now and is creating quite a big expansion of snow cover across the Russian Federation. A strong Siberian high can be our best friend or our worst enemy. It can be our best friend as it aligns with a block from Greenland or Scandinavia to create very stubborn northern blocking and in turn give us very cold weather. Or it can be our worst enemy where it goes over to Canada and gives them very cold conditions which in turn blow up the jet stream and give us very stormy conditions. This was the case in 2013/14 for example. 2013 had a quick expansion of snow cover across Russia but the Siberian high went over to Canada and the USA to bring them a very cold, snowy Winter which in turn led to us achieving our wettest and stormiest Winter on record. We are on a par with 2013's Siberian snow cover, so it could go two ways.
Frankly, despite the QBO, I am not thinking highly of this Winter. My early thoughts was for the best chance of any cold weather to be taking place in December 2017 but then become very stormy in January and February.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Sryanbruen you're a national treasure to have on here.
Between your posts in this thread and the ENSO thread you're brilliant.
Not sure if this is based on statistics but I used to look at the met eireann monthly summaries and try and compare it to the ENSO conditions at the time from the NOAA records and it looks to me like all the people living all along the river Shannon should be delighted now with the change in ENSO for now anyway. Donegal looks like it will still get hit though. No change there.
But just Sryan keep up the eloquent and informative posts.
(ps. Don't get a big head.
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Sryanbruen you're a national treasure to have on here.
Between your posts in this thread and the ENSO thread you're brilliant.
Not sure if this is based on statistics but I used to look at the met eireann monthly summaries and try and compare it to the ENSO conditions at the time from the NOAA records and it looks to me like all the people living all along the river Shannon should be delighted now with the change in ENSO for now anyway. Donegal looks like it will still get hit though. No change there.
But just Sryan keep up the eloquent and informative posts.
(ps. Don't get a big head. ):D
:pac: thanks very much.
If you'd like to know about historical Irish weather whether it's IMTs (Irish Mean Temperatures), summaries etc, please check out the Irish Weather Statistics thread: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057714322&page=10
Recently, I posted part 1 to my Winter 1946/47 70th anniversary article. In the thread, you will also find tables by me which were analysed from online data into one full table divided into two (one from 1946/47 to 1983/84 and the other from 1984/85 to 2016/17). These tables show you what the Winter was like in terms of the methodology we use whether it's the AO, NAO, NAO in May, SSW, OPI, PDO etc. I also added in the UKMTs and CETs. When I calculate the IMTs back to 1946/47, I will update the tables to include the IMTs for each of the Winters. These tables were designed by me to be a simple source to making Winter forecasts based on historical weather instead of having to look up online on multiple sites for data. I can assure you that all the information on the tables is correct and none of it is false - although the OPI for 2015 and 2016 is estimated by me as there is no data of the OPI for those years after it was left to death in early 2015. These tables had been checked a lot of times before I released them to this forum and my weather enthusiast friends.
Another huge weather enthusiast who is a friend of mine makes his own analysis based on my tables - like a table including only cold Winters, such as the one at the bottom of this post:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=104086045&postcount=114Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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nacho libre wrote: »Why is that? In the winters of 2009 and 2010 was the QBO in an easterly phase. I recall reading on netweather that in rare circumstances even with the nao in a positive state and with a strong polar vortex, we can still manage to get a cold spell. One thing about that cold blob of water in the Atlantic you mentioned, it had the effect in recent winters of creating heavy snow showers in the west of Ireland that normally would have fallen as rain.
I think we will see some snow this winter, but we are overdue an event that leads to a decent covering. I long to see a weather map with a polar low heading in our directions.
We are not in the favourable phase of the solar cycle for one along with other factors such as the Siberian High possibly bringing a very stormy Winter if it ends up on the wrong side of the Northern Hemisphere.
Winter 2009/10 did have an easterly QBO but 2010/11 had a westerly QBO.
Yes, I just gave one example as such above, 1990/91. That had a positive AO, positive NAO, westerly QBO, high solar activity and an OPI that was on the positive side of neutral - all factors that would not be favourable for a cold Winter. Yet in the end it was a cold Winter and had a very snowy spell for the UK. They had to wait until February 2009 to find a spell as close to being snowy or cold as February 1991's one. Winter 2008/09 is another interesting Winter because it had a positive AO, positive NAO and a westerly QBO like 1990/91.
But anyway, you can see all this for yourself in the link I just mentioned above to Floki. Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Bumping this, now that the excitement of Ophelia is fading and the forum is returning to a more usual level of traffic.
How soon will we have a firm of idea of how the NAO will set up for the winter? Still looks to be trending negative: 0 -
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