Winter 2017-18: Discussion

Does anybody place iny stock in this chap or is he another James Madden character http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/2020-snow-lovers-ice-age-uk-winter-forecast/

lapua20grain wrote: »

Does anybody place iny stock in this chap or is he another James Madden character http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/2020-snow-lovers-ice-age-uk-winter-forecast/

I never heard of him so I can't make an opinion yet.

lapua20grain wrote: »

Does anybody place iny stock in this chap or is he another James Madden character http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/2020-snow-lovers-ice-age-uk-winter-forecast/

Ok so he always forecasts a cold Winter like James Madden BUT he does it out of optimism and excitement.

I think you should take his forecasts with a large pinch of salt - just like with any forecast.

Long range forecasts are all experimental pseudoscience at best and clickbait profiteering at worst with most of them falling somewhere in between. It's definitely an interesting subject to discuss but there isn't any "best" person/org to look to. If you like their theories and methods then that's the best place to look. The sample size of LRFs and their verification is way too small to have any meaning right now. Hopefully in a few years some real scientific evidence will advance this particular area of meteorology.

nacho libre wrote: »

Ah it's that time of year again:)

If we look back over the last sixty years, we don't seem to have gone more than 10 years without one decent snowfall. Even in the blowtorch winters of the nineties, i recall a couple of good snow events. So with this in mind, assuming i don't kick the bucket in the meantime, we will see a good snow event within the next three years.

Well we're nearly at solar minimum which will be in like 2018-19 and just after solar minimum is the best time for cold winters according to research.

sryanbruen wrote: »

Here's how the Winter is looking like today as courtesy of everybody's favourite model, the CFSv2 :rolleyes:. The three monthly anomalies show December-January-February as an option but for the individual months, we only have December and January to go off of right now.

Winter overall - Very wet, mild and stormy.

December - Looks to be quite a wet and mild one. Not as extreme in either case as January looks or even the Winter overall but nevertheless, still miserably wet and mild.

January - Exceptionally mild and wet. Looks like a record breaking warm January and wettest January since 2014, even more so than January 2016.

What a terrible outlook!

UPDATE on the CFSv2 for Winter

Winter overall - Very mild but not as wet as last time it showed.

December - Close to average temperatures on the warmer side. Fairly dry.

January - Alarmingly mild or warm, OTT warmth it's showing! Rather wet also.

February - Straightforward unsettled mild and wet month. Very wet in parts of the northwest.

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Watching a few LR forecasts for the States last night, and many seem to be going for a similar winter to 2013-2014 over there. (cold NE/warm SW) If correct, could help fire up the N.Atlantic jet for us.

The SST anomaly profile on this day in 2013 is very similar to now with a positive PDO, a cold ENSO - though here in 2017, not nearly as cold (same with the PDO in 2017 of not being nearly as warm interestingly). The Atlantic is fairly mixed like now. On the side of SST anomalies, it does looks like it. Coming after a very quiet Winter - and also the fact that Winter 2017/18 will be at the same part of the Solar Cycle as Winter 2006/07 (Winter 2005/06 & Winter 2016/17 were at the same part of the Solar Cycle and were way too similar!), I wouldn't be surprised if it were to come off.

sryanbruen wrote: »

UPDATE on the CFSv2 for Winter

Winter overall - Very mild but not as wet as last time it showed.

December - Close to average temperatures on the warmer side. Fairly dry.

January - Alarmingly mild or warm, OTT warmth it's showing! Rather wet also.

February - Straightforward unsettled mild and wet month. Very wet in parts of the northwest.

That will do nicely . If we're not going to get significant cold and snow well then Very Mild and a bit wet will be grand.

Gonzo wrote: »

I reckon this winter will be yet another mild winter. Haven't had any proper lying snow sine 2010, just temporary dustings/coverings lasting no more than a few hours.

The Altantic has been raging here since July, with no let up in sight so here's hoping things may quieten down by December, giving us more of a chance of something colder during mid winter.

The predictions are for a very mild winter but as we know predictions often don't work out as this summer showed us.

The thing is that the analogues I did - and the CFSv2 model alone were showing a poor August but I went completely against them.

milli milli wrote: »

I'm choosing to focus on this rather than the other predictions!
I really hope the mild wet weather predictions are wrong.
The last 2 winters there was NO snow days to speak of, where I lived. Maybe a couple of flakes in the sky that disappeared when they touched the ground. It was a major disappointment

I don't even need a Big Freeze but just a few days of snow showers and decent snow cover would satisfy me.

Just want to ask - if the results in the link are a good chance the weather could be cold, then why is everyone else predicting mild?
Is it because the link is for U.K. weather and they are more sheltered from the Atlantic?

Some people want to be more optimistic than others - and sometimes they do it out of hope but other times, they do it to get views and sales; just look at the likes of James Madden or Nathan Rao.

I have a couple of reasons why I'm not hopeful for Winter 2017/18. Firstly, I was extremely disappointed with Winter 2016/17 seeing all the signs that were showing especially for the earlier part of the Winter to be colder than the latter half. This was false, both December and February were very mild with January rather mild. As a result, I'm lowering my expectations and I'd rather be shocked or stunned than disappointed. Secondly, we're not in the ideal part of the solar cycle for a cold Winter - although you can never guarantee with our weather (like the Winter of 1981/82 was at the same stage this solar cycle is in). But unlike that solar cycle which was solar cycle 20, solar cycle 24 (2008-present) has been much weaker and has been the weakest solar cycle since solar cycle 16 or 12. Recently, we've had a huge spike in sunspot numbers - possibly the highest spike since early 2016 or late 2015. I will be researching on previous solar cycles to see if this is a common occurrence with weak solar cycles - as meteorologists have claimed, and the winters that followed these huge spikes in sunspot numbers out of nowhere towards solar minimum. Thirdly, one of the things we look at for predicting the Winter is the NAO in May. This May had a negative NAO but the SST anomalies made it look like we had a neutral NAO. The only neutral NAO I can find since 1900 is 1979/80 which was a close to average Winter in terms of temperatures but with only one Winter to consider for this, it's making it very difficult.

Winter 1990/91 proves that no matter if all the methodology is against a cold Winter, it doesn't mean it can't be one but as I said, I'd rather lower my expectations and be shocked or stunned than be hyped and then disappointed.

Since the Arctic is basically screwed it follows that everyones weather is too. I forsee a lot of weather like today this Winter. I also predict a lot of storms as Atlantic is warmer than normal and I wouldnt be surprised to see a major flooding event yet again

The extreme is now the norm.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

A very mild winter ahead according to the latest ECMWF seasonal outlook dominated by a Euro Bartlett high and southerly winds over Ireland and Europe

https://twitter.com/gavinpartridge/status/909416033592717312

The Euro seasonals & monthly proved to be useless last year.

Regardless, a 'Euro Bartlett' isn't the worst set up for Ireland. Good chance of storms and impressive rainfall totals.