I know there was already a Christmas weather thread posted last week but it was in the pictures section and seems to be gone now? If not, and if appropriate, Mods should feel free to merge this thread with that...
OK its November so its just about socially acceptable to start thinking of Christmas. Will it be white? Will Sponge Bob get another bbq day this year? Feel free to add your thoughts...
As of now guidance is, inevitably this far out, patchy. Essentially there are some positive straws in the wind this year though (signals for blocking etc.). TWO have had a Christmas weather threading running for some time (they are on their 9th update!). Their latest guidance is posted below. There is no sign yet of Netweather's Christmas Weather page.
I will update as and when appropriate....
"...Christmas weather forecast 2012
Welcome to our dedicated Christmas 2012 weather forecast page. This will update regularly (usually each Saturday) during the run up to Christmas from September 1st and will take into account the weather patterns which develop during the autumn. Please remember that our Xmas forecast is intended to be for fun, as trying to forecast a single day even one week ahead is fraught with difficulty. The forecast is based on what we expect the general synoptic conditions to be like during the late December period.
Forecast - Ninth update
As we approach the beginning of November the latest update increases the chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions to above average. There have continued to be signs of northern blocking persisting in the medium term, and this increases the chance of colder than average conditions in the UK. Although there's a lot of uncertainty about how the weather will develop as we head through November and into December, there are signs of it being more favourable for cold weather than is often the case. So if you're dreaming of a White Christmas keep your fingers crossed!
Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%....."