Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Hotblack Desiato · 12-03-2020 11:20pm

ednwireland wrote: »

how long can airlines last with this level of shutdown

Depends on how much pain they can pass on to their employees - layoffs etc. Much more so in the US than the EU, "contractors" excepted.

Leases still have to be paid unless aircraft are sent back, and terminating a lease comes at a cost too

Airlines which own most of their frames will be in a better position, but grounded aircraft still need a level of maintenance.

Ain't gonna be pretty. But many industries will suffer also. IT excepted - everybody is going crazy trying to buy laptops / tablets for employees to work remotely. My job put in an order from A Very Large Vendor Indeed and got 30% of it, that's the best they can do for now.

martinsvi - just seeing your post now. Hope things work out OK for you, and everyone else on this thread, personally and professionally.

d51984 · 12-03-2020 11:28pm

In a very extreme case of getting Irish people home from Italy if theres any left that is, can we not fly them in to Baldonnell and transport the up the n7 to the Curragh for 2 weeks isolation?

Talking extreme cases here, its a bit late now. Would of been effective 2 weeks ago.

d51984 · 12-03-2020 11:37pm

Even people flying back from cheltenham, in to Baldonnel to be checked, then to the Currugh Camp if needed.

Hotblack Desiato · 12-03-2020 11:45pm

bk wrote: »

And seemingly (and stupidly) the 14 day rule doesn't apply to US citizens, even if they were in the Schengen area.

You can't really refuse entry to your own citizens though - unfair to make them some other country's problem to deal with - but they should be quarantined if there is any doubt.

GM228 · 12-03-2020 11:51pm

Could Baldonnel even handle a commercial jet and all it entails?

I think the runway is just about long enough for the likes of an A320 or 737NG given the right conditions (but not 100% certain), but what about unloading facilities, luggage, immigration etc?

d51984 · 12-03-2020 11:53pm

Im sure ive seen a 767 and 757 at Baldonel before. Anyway its a bit late now, should of been done 2 weeks ago. But then again, all the heads coming back from Cheltenham....

bk · 12-03-2020 11:56pm

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

You can't really refuse entry to your own citizens though - unfair to make them some other country's problem to deal with - but they should be quarantined if there is any doubt.

Of course absolutely right, I didn't specify it, but when I said "stupid", the stupid part is as you say, not quarantining their own citizens who return.

cson · 13-03-2020 3:57am

GM228 wrote: »

Hardly surprising, probably one of the most at danger of collapse airlines, assume very near the top of the list if not already there:-
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1238215785258123264?s=19

DY's enterprise value is approx $110m right now.

Right about price after discount of one 787, of which they operate 37. Granted they're all leased but optically its crazy!

smurfjed · 13-03-2020 1:08pm

DY's enterprise value is approx $110m right now.

What exactly is “enterprise value”?

Coil Kilcrea · 13-03-2020 1:20pm

smurfjed wrote: »

What exactly is “enterprise value”?

Effectively, its net worth or value at any given time.

easypazz · 13-03-2020 2:07pm

Total shutdown is next step. No flights in or out. Everybody self quarantine and hope there are no new cases for a few weeks then only start flying in and out on a small scale with everybody tested on arrival.

rockonollie · 13-03-2020 2:16pm

Aer Lingus finally waiving change fees for flights through May.....it was a very bad look for them only offering to waive for new bookings and not ones made prior to the pandemic.

easypazz · 13-03-2020 2:18pm

rockonollie wrote: »

Aer Lingus finally waiving change fees for flights through May.....it was a very bad look for them only offering to waive for new bookings and not ones made prior to the pandemic.

I wonder does it make financial sense for them?

Say 90% change date then they can cancel flight completely and only have to refund the last 10%

rockonollie · 13-03-2020 2:23pm

easypazz wrote: »

I wonder does it make financial sense for them?

Say 90% change date then they can cancel flight completely and only have to refund the last 10%

Most likely.....there's also the future business aspect of it.....

Tenger · 13-03-2020 2:36pm

rockonollie wrote: »

Aer Lingus finally waiving change fees for flights through May.....it was a very bad look for them only offering to waive for new bookings and not ones made prior to the pandemic.

In fairness BA did the same, I saw the reaction on their twitter account.

trellheim · 13-03-2020 2:51pm

same company .... Willie Walsh calls the shots across IAG

crisco10 · 13-03-2020 3:16pm

easypazz wrote: »

I wonder does it make financial sense for them?

Say 90% change date then they can cancel flight completely and only have to refund the last 10%

Absolutely must have been part of the decision. I've a few flights with Finnair coming up, and on 9th March they offered any flights free change up until end of November.
Then 10th of March they announced a heap of flight cancellations. clearly a strategy to move people off flights they were going to cancel anyway.

Nijmegen · 13-03-2020 5:02pm

To be honest I can't see now how this isn't a global recession with a lot of job losses across a lot of industries (and further long term impacts in that demand for air travel, when it returns, will not return to pre-virus peak). It may be the case that whoever is healthy to begin with cuts deepest, earliest will be those that survive (ala Lufthansa grounding 150 planes pretty immediately).

Inquitus · 13-03-2020 5:52pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

To be honest I can't see now how this isn't a global recession with a lot of job losses across a lot of industries (and further long term impacts in that demand for air travel, when it returns, will not return to pre-virus peak). It may be the case that whoever is healthy to begin with cuts deepest, earliest will be those that survive (ala Lufthansa grounding 150 planes pretty immediately).

Yep it will definitively cause a Global recession, defined as 2 quarters of negative growth, I don't see how that can be avoided at this point. It should be relatively easy to bounce back from though hopefully, once COVID-19 has blown through, as the existing fundamentals won't have changed that much, and the capacity will still be there.

Coil Kilcrea · 13-03-2020 7:54pm

Inquitus wrote: »

It should be relatively easy to bounce back from though hopefully, once COVID-19 has blown through, as the existing fundamentals won't have changed that much, and the capacity will still be there.

I agree that the bounce back should be speedy and significant. The problem is staying alive paying all the fixed costs and salaries with falling revenue and no forward visibility. Worse, competition will drive the already vulnerable out of business and that's not necessarily good for consumers. And I worry for all of the people employed in the industry facing lay-offs.

Tenzor07 · 13-03-2020 8:29pm

Even if the Coronavirus disapeard tomorrow, we're still looking at an aviation landscape which will look a lot different that what we have now...

British Airways are to cut jobs, Edinburgh airport may have to close down...with the loss of 1000's of jobs..

Boeing are living on borrowed cash... I'm sure Trump will have to step in and bail them out.

Tenzor07 · 13-03-2020 9:12pm

UK may get added to the U.S travel ban, which will ground all U.S bound flights.

The U.S may remove some Schengen area countries will low infection rates from the ban.

Coil Kilcrea · 13-03-2020 9:38pm

It's almost time for state intervention to offer a bail out/moratorium to the airlines in much the same way as the auto industry was saved in Detroit. This is way bigger than market dynamics or normal business adversity. It's existential and beyond the resources of even the financially strong airlines. It's essential to protect all of the jobs affected by this threat to our way of life. And I'm all for the free markets but this is beyond all of that when governments determine where they can fly.

easypazz · 14-03-2020 2:57am

Coil Kilcrea wrote: »

It's almost time for state intervention to offer a bail out/moratorium to the airlines in much the same way as the auto industry was saved in Detroit. This is way bigger than market dynamics or normal business adversity. It's existential and beyond the resources of even the financially strong airlines. It's essential to protect all of the jobs affected by this threat to our way of life. And I'm all for the free markets but this is beyond all of that when governments determine where they can fly.

Support from the EU is a given. One of the biggest problems is the monkey Trump. A clown that is incapable of diplomacy.

Nijmegen · 14-03-2020 9:58am

Yeah I reckon we’re headed for state bailout territories. To be honest this is so big, so global, it’s going to take a political and central bank response of 2008 if not bigger size. And look at the measures they’re bringing in already to fight the virus - overnight the US has basically just rolled out a sick pay scheme, for example, which is anathema to them.

I do think that in the short term a lot of people will lose their jobs and they will have the same forward guidance as the companies (ie, none) as they try to plan to pay their mortgages etc. Companies will be saved but god knows what’ll happen to the employees in the period in the middle. Thinking of everyone involved at this time, I really am.

The mood music from BA is really stark https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/13/ba-says-jobs-will-go-as-airline-industry-faces-crisis-worse-than-9-11-coronavirus

Coil Kilcrea · 14-03-2020 10:35am

easypazz wrote: »

Support from the EU is a given. One of the biggest problems is the monkey Trump. A clown that is incapable of diplomacy.

And decency.

BanditLuke · 14-03-2020 10:36am

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1238751149559291906

Are flights being turned away from Spain?

TheDriver · 14-03-2020 10:43am

BanditLuke wrote: »

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1238751149559291906

Are flights being turned away from Spain?

Appears to be same as canaries. There's talk of rescue flights only

Nijmegen · 14-03-2020 10:45am

BanditLuke wrote: »

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1238751149559291906

Are flights being turned away from Spain?

Airlines making the decision themselves. Jet2 will have a lot of package holidaymakers onboard they’re on the hook for if they get shut down in situ, where other airlines obviously just get to wave goodbye to them at the jet bridge.

Noxegon · 14-03-2020 2:00pm

LOT has just announced a suspension of all flights.

Cookiemunster · 14-03-2020 2:08pm

Noxegon wrote: »

LOT has just announced a suspension of all flights.

Poland is in total lock down. No flights or trains in or out of the country. Only Polish citizens allowed to cross the border.

d51984 · 14-03-2020 2:34pm

Spain gong in to full lockdown on Monday so theres another chunk of Irish flights that will be affected. I say next week we will start to see some frames been parked up across the country.

john boye · 14-03-2020 3:41pm

KLM are bringing forward the retirement date for their remaining B747s to the end of this month. You'd have to assume that BA and LH will do the same with at least some of their B744s too.

Inquitus · 14-03-2020 4:59pm

This is so egocentric and just wrong, what sort of people do we have out there?

Passenger Who Boarded Flight After Testing Positive for Coronavirus Gets Lifetime Ban from JetBlue
The passenger flew from New York to Florida after learning he tested positive for COVID-19

https://people.com/health/passenger-who-boarded-flight-after-testing-positive-for-coronavirus-gets-lifetime-ban-from-jetblue/

Tenzor07 · 14-03-2020 5:09pm

Trump set to ban flights from Ireland and UK shortly...

technocrat · 14-03-2020 5:09pm

Reuter’s now confirming a ban on UK & IRL flights to/from USA.

Irish Steve · 14-03-2020 5:13pm

Ban on UK & Ireland comes into force on Monday night

d51984 · 14-03-2020 5:20pm

This is going to hurt Aer Lingus really really bad.

Coil Kilcrea · 14-03-2020 5:27pm

d51984 wrote: »

This is going to hurt Aer Lingus really really bad.

Sadly, it will hurt all of us. Trump is blaming Europe‘s bad management of the crisis.

Gael23 · 14-03-2020 5:27pm

Aer Lingus are pretty screwed now

sparrowcar · 14-03-2020 5:28pm

This isn't going to hurt just EI.
Everyone involved in aviation is in trouble here.
The landscape will be very very different in a few months.

d51984 · 14-03-2020 5:29pm

Trump not looking too good himself tbh.

lomb · 14-03-2020 5:30pm

The airlines will recover in time it may be with new shareholders or employees or central bank bailouts but basically as long as there is demand there will be supply.

Fireball81 · 14-03-2020 5:30pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Aer Lingus are pretty screwed now

All airlines are screwed, at least they have the deep pockets of IAG to rely on - if it was public ownership or owned by the state a bail out will be required.

The EU doesn't allow them but they'll end up happening with some of the legacy carriers.

lomb · 14-03-2020 5:31pm

It does like like there will be a fairly massive recession before normality returns.

Gael23 · 14-03-2020 5:37pm

Can even the IAG weather this one out?

kevinandrew · 14-03-2020 5:37pm

Aer Lingus are as screwed as every other airline but it's in a much healthier state going into this crisis than others. It may only buy them some extra time compared to others but time is vital in a situation like this.

It will be about survival from now on.

Coil Kilcrea · 14-03-2020 5:39pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Can even the IAG weather this one out?

No, the costs here are beyond any cash on hand.

cson · 14-03-2020 5:41pm

kevinandrew wrote: »

It will be about survival from now on.

Exactly.

It's going to be all sorts of grim in Shamrock House but first to respond will be first to recover.

Gael23 · 14-03-2020 5:42pm

States I imagine will be pumping all financial resources possible into creaking healthcare systems and welfare so bailing out airlines will be so so far down the list

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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