US Sports Thread (NBA, NCAA, MBL, NHL, NFL, etc.)

Cam Newton wrote: »

Nice little tip, no team playing against Cam Newton has covered the spread at any level of football since October 2010

Arizona Cardinals covered the spread of 6.5 pts in Week 1

I will admit that the line opened at 7.0 but the stats generally use the closing line for stuff like this

Also here's a link to an article about the general uselessness of stats like "has covered the spread since ..."

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/6240/when-it-comes-the-point-spread-sometimes-numbers-do-lie

Cam Newton wrote: »

Nice little tip, no team playing against Cam Newton has covered the spread at any level of football since October 2010

It's an interesting historical stat but there's an article on Grantland yesterday saying that ATS records have very little predictive value for future results: When It Comes to the Point Spread, Sometimes Numbers Do Lie

It may even be the case that they predict the opposite, i.e. as lines get inflated, and there's a regression to the mean, that teams with a good ATS history will have below-average future ATS records.

There's another example of this going on right now. Totals in the NFL have been going over at an amazing rate this season, every week so far overs have won, sometimes by dramatic amounts (see NFL Spread Sheet: Over and over again).

Because overs are winning ATS, is this a reason for continuing to bet overs? For me, it's the opposite. As the overs have been winning, bookies have inflating the lines every week. If we see a regression to the mean, you'll have some very inflated lines, so I'm on the lookout for unders at the moment.

Re: Panthers @ Falcons game
I thought about this some more and I don't believe it's going to hit -3, so I'm going to take the Falcons -3.5.

3 is the hardest number for lines to move on or off of because so many games are decided by 3. This one is hovering between -3.5 and -4 so I can't see it hitting 3.

I watched the Panthers-Saints on condensed gamepass last night (great feature for NFL bettors actually) and I think the Panthers were slightly flattered by the result. Newton's a talent, no doubt, but the offense as a whole still looks quite raw. They're relying on kind of improvised big plays from Newton, which I don't think will always come off. There was a significant contrast between him and Brees, where Brees was moving the chains methodically by carving up the Panthers' secondary on short passes. You can see it in the passing stats:

Brees: 32-45-1 (343 yards)
Newton: 16-31-1 (219 yards)

2 of the Carolina TDs were horrible defending, the guy really should've been tackled 30 yards out, but the Saints matador-style tackling let them run in. I think Atlanta will make it more difficult for them defensively.

Falcons -3.5 vs. Panthers

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Just looking at that article, there is bound to be value to be had on the unders this weekend as they keep making the overs higher and higher, it will even out after a while, so i think its time to hit the unders.

There's another argument that scores are going up because QBs and WRs are protected more by rule changes, there's obviously some truth to that, but I don't think it's that much different to last season to justify increasing the lines that much.

As an experiment, let's see how many totals go over from now until the end of the season. Up to now, overs have gone: 48-28-1. If there's an over-reaction in the line-increases (which is my theory), unders should come out ahead from now on. If scores are really going up so much and bookies have been slow to react, overs should continue to win.

Cam Newtons ATS record will be interesting to monitor as well, but there'll be a higher sample-size with the over-under lines. I'll track the total here each week.

DB74 wrote: »

Here's the average points per game over the last 6 full NFL seasons.

Very interesting. Did you get those stats from a public database or is it your own? I was just looking to do some similar queries.

padraig_f wrote: »

Some early picks this week:

6pm:
Eagles +0 @ Redskins
Bills +3 @ Giants
Lions -4 vs. 49ers

9pm
Ravens -6.5 vs. Texans (gone to -7.5 today)

MNF:
Jets -7 vs. Dolphins

A few I'm waiting for possible line moves before betting on:

Bears -3 vs. Vikings (waiting for -2.5)
Cowboys 7 vs. Patriots (waiting for +7.5)
Cowboys ML @ Patriots (wait for slightly better than 5/2)
Falcons -3.5 vs. Panthers (not sure it goes to -3 but let's see)

Just to see how the line moves went, some went with me, some against. Kicking myself I didn't take the Cowboys +7, it went down to +6 and is now at +6.5. I'll wait til kickoff to see if the +7 becomes available again. I'll bet them money-line anyway, and stay away on the handicap if it stays at +6.5.

Eagles went from +0 to -3, Ravens went from -6.5 to -7.5 and back to -6.5 suddenly yesterday, sparking a rumour that Andre Johnson might be available (as far as I know he's still out).

Bears went from -3 to -2.5 but I think that was because Julius Peppers was made doubtful, which makes me a lot more lukewarm on the bet. I took it anyway at -2.5 for a small amount.

Seems a lot of people like the Panthers, as the Falcons went from -3.5 to -3 (with some extra juice, 4/5).

Jets went from -7 to -6.5, surprised me that one, still like the Jets though, so doubled down at -6.5.

Good luck everyone.

padraig_f wrote: »

Very interesting. Did you get those stats from a public database or is it your own? I was just looking to do some similar queries.

It's from my own. It's nothing fancy believe me.

Just an excel spreadsheet with the results for every game from 2005 to-date

There's a couple of formulae in it to determine who the favourite is and stuff like that but it's pretty basic stuff, probably archaic to anyone who can Access or a similar database program. I keep promising myself that I will learn databases but I never quite get around to it

You have to update every week with the results and lines etc but I'm nerdy enough to actually enjoy rubbish like that!

Anyway if you (or anyone else) wants it just pm me your email address and I will send it over to you

DB74 wrote: »

Just an excel spreadsheet with the results for every game from 2005 to-date

Thanks, I'm doing some of my own manual collection of stats, I was thinking about automating some of it (i.e. scraping from results sites), but I can also see a benefit to entering the stuff manually, you become quite familiar ith the figures.

I was thinking about using a database, but I'm starting to think that excel might be the best option. The volume of data isn't that high, the benefit is more in manipulating the data, applying formulas, generating derived stats, highlighting trends, all of which excel is good at.

One thing I'd really like to automate is the line movement through the week, to save me checking it regularly. i.e. would update several times a day, produce a graph to track the movement, and alert me with text or email if a certain number becomes available. I have some programming ability so I'm going to look at this.

El LoCo Ade wrote: »

Florida International At Arkansas State (Handicap)
Arkansas State (-3.0) 20/23

Nice tip I threw a few quid on while watching it last night. Pretty even game till the 4th quarter when Arkansas really got it going both defensively and offensively and completed blitzed FIU. I don't think I have ever seen a QB make so many rushing yards himself in a game!

Opr

Added Lions -2.5 @ Broncos, fading the Tebow hype.

Good article the other day:
Double Digit Underdogs in the NFL: Long-term Value for Bettors

Liked that advice from Warren Buffet as it applied to sports betting: "Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy".

In this vein, I'll also be taking
Rams +13.5 vs. Saints

Didn't think the Rams were that bad last week in Dallas, played them pretty close for 3 quarters, and it's a huge amount of points to be given at home. Will wait 'til kickoff in the hope it goes to +14, but will still take the 13.5.

Few other leans, not that strong, will probably put them in some kind of parlay:

Dolphins +9.5 @ Giants
Jags +9.5 @ Texans
Browns +9 @ 49ers
Steelers +3 vs. Patriots

Saints ****ed up what should've been a very profitable night. Complacent bastards.

really fancy the chargers to cover the -3 spread tonight. they have been unlucky in the last few games and should bounce back tonight....i hope

http://www.paddypower.com/football/football-matches/major-league-soccer/Houston-v-Philadelphia-Union-3160258.html?ev_desc=Houston-v-Philadelphia-Union&aff_id=



Houston worth it ?

How I lost one bet yesterday...Rams +3 @ Cardinals. Rams never trailed in regulation and had a field-goal blocked to send it to overtime...



I usually like the unders in MNF and, with Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy & Michael Vick, these are two teams that like to run the ball.

Under 47.5 Bears @ Eagles

What is the opinion of OSU's -27 spread against Iowa State tonight?

Am thinking of throwing together this accum:

Kansas State to win outright, Alabama -2 (as tipped by Horseboxo in the basketball), OSU -27 and maybe either Arkansas or Wisconsin to beat the spread. I'm leaning on Arkansas at -13.0.

Would come to a nice 25/1.

Can you bet on just the straight win in American football?

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

Yes, under the "game line".

Thanks, does there be many shocks or do the favourites usually win?