Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Over 3 miles -

Next Destination, Monkfish, Energume ( hopefully goes to the Marsh to prove my point ) , The Big Getaway, Pencilfullofled .. the list could go on. In fairness the fact that connections are avoiding this troop " because it is a hard race " really speaks volumes.

In the Marsh he could face Andy Dufresne, Sporting John , Asterion Forlonge - it is no cakewalk in fairness. As I said I would like to see Energume here either.

He wouldn't have the pace for Shiskin, Unexcepted or Mt Lenister in the Arkle.

There are lots of horses who he hasn''t raced against yet. Which is the heart of the argument.

Can't agree with most of this but with you 100% on hoping Energumene goes for the Marsh. I really like the horse and I'd be gutted if he goes to the Arkle or even skips the festival. Heard Paul Townend is very sweet on him.

Hope this is not too much, too heavy. YESTERDAY MORNING.

Champion Chase

In the two-mile division, the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham went the way of last season’s brave Arkle winner, Put The Kettle On, who outstayed the free-rolling Duc Des Genievres up the hill in a race where Defi Du Seuil was a huge disappointment, stopping quickly after three out. There are clearly still big issues with Philip Hobbs’ talented chaser, but even though he’s out to 20/1 in places, he did travel and jump well on the whole in that race up until the closing stages, so if Hobbs can find the key to him and work out what’s ailing him, he’s still a player in this division and I’ll be keeping a close eye. That’s because the strength in depth is simply not there – while Henry De Bromhead’s mare is admirable, a good jumper and a brave battler up the hill, there are giant holes to be picked in the Arkle form and the form of this race, so if she were to win the Champion Chase, I would be extremely surprised on a form basis.



Chacun Pour Soi and Altior head the market at the time of writing and I would be stunned if either of them were beaten by Put The Kettle On come March. Clearly, that comes with the proviso of ‘with a run’ because the former is, while very talented, made of glass and the latter is rising 11 coming off his most tricky season so far. If those worries weren’t there and we were basing this on ability and form alone, I would say that the 7/1 available on Altior is a loopy price for a horse who could turn up in the Tingle Creek this weekend and hose up, instantly being shortened into about 2/1 for the Champion Chase. I feel like we forget that this is a horse that’s only been beaten once over obstacles – by the aforementioned highest-rated horse in training and over a trip that suited his opponent far more than it did him. We also forget that he came back and easily took care of a field of 160-chasers at Newbury in the Game Spirit afterwards and the racing post comment after the race was: “it would be folly to assume any horse other than he is the one to beat come March”.



Although we haven’t seen him out yet, I have seen nothing in this division that suggests to me that a changing of the guard is ready to occur. Rouge Vif was impressive on good ground in a handicap at Cheltenham, but he’ll have to step up again on that to challenge in this, while of course we haven’t seen Chacun Pour Soi yet, but being beaten by A Plus Tard over 2m last season doesn’t suggest he’s the one to usurp Altior either. Of course, he does have to beat Politologue, who was an excellent winner of this last season, but he’s 3-0 against that rival as it stands. Perhaps it falls to Politologue’s stablemate Greaneteen to improve enough to challenge Altior, but he is often talked about by his trainer Paul Nicholls, as needing an extra half mile sooner rather than later, so there’s every chance he’ll end up in the Ryanair if he goes to Cheltenham – we’ll see if the pair face off in the Tingle Creek!



I think this is the right moment to make the bet, as the Tingle Creek could change the market completely and render this 7/1 a distant dream. Backing him each-way is the shrewd thing to do when you consider his age and his potential for declining slightly, but he’s been there, he’s done it and apart from one blip (if you can even call it that given Cyrname’s achievements!), there is very little quantifiable reason to believe that Altior won’t come back pretty much as good as he was. If he does, he’s simply the best horse in the race and to have that level of simplicity in a market at this time of year is a blessing. Now we cross our fingers that his spin around Sandown Park is as good as it could be and then we can get that cotton wool ready for him before he presumably heads to the Game Spirit again after that.



bettrends advice:
Queen Mother Champion Chase – ALTIOR 1pt E/W @ 7/1 (bet365)