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Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

1356760

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 314 ✭✭NMB


    All I heard was "air from Siberia" and a very pretty background


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Wonder what the 18z will have in store for us... :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    So lads It seems the serious operators here seem nearly giddy about the potential weather on the way.

    So with that in mind and noting that the thread says from Sunday next. So will it be grand until Saturday night and then bang ?

    Also can cork expect snow or will the snow shield stop it or will even the famous snow shield of cork be beaten by this ?

    Thanks lads.

    Yes hopefully it is. The answer to the Cork Question is right here:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=106196851&postcount=80


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,577 ✭✭✭Bonzo Delaney


    "I'll start that roof for you by the end of February missus " says I
    "Sure we'll be over the worst of the weather by then and in to spring " says I ! FFxS !!!😭😭😭😭


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    I have an exam on the 7th March so hopefully it would have cleared by then. Any time before or after that is fine by me but a few impromptu snow/study days before hand would go down nicely.

    A red level warning for snow would be the ultimate dream.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Wonder what the 18z will have in store for us... :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

    Beginning it's rollout now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    So is it bad news if the GFS sticks to what it was saying earlier?

    Is that what passes for bad news these days?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Beginning it's rollout now.

    Why do I have a bad feeling about this run coming up.....:(

    Maybe its going to bring us down a notch but still steller charts


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    So lads It seems the serious operators here seem nearly giddy about the potential weather on the way.

    So with that in mind and noting that the thread says from Sunday next. So will it be grand until Saturday night and then bang ?

    Also can cork expect snow or will the snow shield stop it or will even the famous snow shield of cork be beaten by this ?

    Thanks lads.

    Yes hopefully it is. The answer to the Cork Question is right here:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=106196851&postcount=80

    Gracias Chief.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    gabeeg wrote: »
    So is it bad news if the GFS sticks to what it was saying earlier?

    Is that what passes for bad news these days?

    He fears it going pear shaped. It would be typical after the ECM came on board.

    Actually i'm going to be optmistic, given the unique set of factors involved, i don't think it will go pear shaped- maybe
    a modified version of what has been shown previously, but still snowy charts.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    So what’s been happening this evening ?

    Again as per my message yesterday In The winter thread yesterday,I’m not getting too caught up on this at the moment , a 2-3 day trend from the main models and I’m in , but the chopping and changing has me fence sitting rite now , ECM back this up in the morning please


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Yeah but it was different yesterday, Pete.

    Frankly I think you're religiously checking the models every four hours like the rest of us, and you're at the point where every waking moment is a kind strange pain.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    So what’s been happening this evening ?

    Again as per my message yesterday In The winter thread yesterday,I’m not getting too caught up on this at the moment , a 2-3 day trend from the main models and I’m in , but the chopping and changing has me fence sitting rite now , ECM back this up in the morning please

    THIS TELLS YOU ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW:

    501 (162 members & 339 guests) Moderators : 5

    nacho libre, pad199207, Alonso77, moon madness, RoryMac, gumgum1, kittyn, Gasco, gabeeg, lobo1, gerrybhoy, the quiet fella, cheekycheeky, NMB, Dank Janniels, JCX BXC, Lu Tze, mel.b, jay28, Rodar08, MJohnston, giveitholly, TheTorment, RedPeppers, pmq71, blackwave, Donegal Storm, Stevie79, 1holly1, Sierra Oscar, Zoney, griffdaddy, taytobreath, Nickla, MidMan25, Speak Now, downwiththatsor, hellyeah, loopymum, mountainy man, torres9kop, Greensoup, KathleenF, noobsnow95, knowall123, Pherekydes, Longing, vandriver, pistolpetes11, snow_bunny, crownhill, barney 20v, Timistry, onmebike, Dickie10, vizualpics, InstaSte, Bonzo Delaney, ascophyllum, Keisha07, ps200306, lolie, Arne_Saknussem, ZX7R, Blondie919, Holy Duck, Gonzo, DanielL18, Kermit.de.frog, notmypants, dsaint1, BLIZZARD7, alentejo, SwissToni, mirrorwall14, talkabout, Luke-m, JazzyJ, dense, king size mars bar, kerrycork13, Frostybrew, Oscar Bravo, hawkwing, snowjon, Colser, Kingswood Rover, wench, P_1, cnocbui, obriebm, elvis99, thecretinhop, Longboard, Benicetomonty, cefh17, vickers209, nuttyboy79, Robert McGrath, mikeecho, joinme, wexfordman2, aonchraic, joe316, droidman123, Natibaby, geraardo, Wobbuffet, Lucreto, Reckless Abandonment, icesnowfrost, flanzer, United road, Sammy2012, Lawnmo, jammiedodgers, jh79, Deatr, Aaronh86, dexter647, RobertKK, Soccarboy11, Vxlks, Tazio, robinwing, LEIN, Musicman2000, cwboy, hungoverbunny, nerrad1983, Burts Bee, Sirted, Bogsnorkler, golf nut, CB19Kevo, Weathercheck, cascade12, rabwaygal, The Gardener, 2013Lara, Dancewithme, KinnegadKid, Samash, little bess, Pentecost, Lenny5, munsterlegend


    A sure sign snow is in the offing:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    THIS TELLS YOU ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW:

    501 (162 members & 339 guests) Moderators : 5

    nacho libre, pad199207, Alonso77, moon madness, RoryMac, gumgum1, kittyn, Gasco, gabeeg, lobo1, gerrybhoy, the quiet fella, cheekycheeky, NMB, Dank Janniels, JCX BXC, Lu Tze, mel.b, jay28, Rodar08, MJohnston, giveitholly, TheTorment, RedPeppers, pmq71, blackwave, Donegal Storm, Stevie79, 1holly1, Sierra Oscar, Zoney, griffdaddy, taytobreath, Nickla, MidMan25, Speak Now, downwiththatsor, hellyeah, loopymum, mountainy man, torres9kop, Greensoup, KathleenF, noobsnow95, knowall123, Pherekydes, Longing, vandriver, pistolpetes11, snow_bunny, crownhill, barney 20v, Timistry, onmebike, Dickie10, vizualpics, InstaSte, Bonzo Delaney, ascophyllum, Keisha07, ps200306, lolie, Arne_Saknussem, ZX7R, Blondie919, Holy Duck, Gonzo, DanielL18, Kermit.de.frog, notmypants, dsaint1, BLIZZARD7, alentejo, SwissToni, mirrorwall14, talkabout, Luke-m, JazzyJ, dense, king size mars bar, kerrycork13, Frostybrew, Oscar Bravo, hawkwing, snowjon, Colser, Kingswood Rover, wench, P_1, cnocbui, obriebm, elvis99, thecretinhop, Longboard, Benicetomonty, cefh17, vickers209, nuttyboy79, Robert McGrath, mikeecho, joinme, wexfordman2, aonchraic, joe316, droidman123, Natibaby, geraardo, Wobbuffet, Lucreto, Reckless Abandonment, icesnowfrost, flanzer, United road, Sammy2012, Lawnmo, jammiedodgers, jh79, Deatr, Aaronh86, dexter647, RobertKK, Soccarboy11, Vxlks, Tazio, robinwing, LEIN, Musicman2000, cwboy, hungoverbunny, nerrad1983, Burts Bee, Sirted, Bogsnorkler, golf nut, CB19Kevo, Weathercheck, cascade12, rabwaygal, The Gardener, 2013Lara, Dancewithme, KinnegadKid, Samash, little bess, Pentecost, Lenny5, munsterlegend


    A sure sign snow is in the offing:)

    They should feed that data into the models


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    THIS TELLS YOU ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW:

    501 (162 members & 339 guests) Moderators : 5

    nacho libre, pad199207, Alonso77, moon madness, RoryMac, gumgum1, kittyn, Gasco, gabeeg, lobo1, gerrybhoy, the quiet fella, cheekycheeky, NMB, Dank Janniels, JCX BXC, Lu Tze, mel.b, jay28, Rodar08, MJohnston, giveitholly, TheTorment, RedPeppers, pmq71, blackwave, Donegal Storm, Stevie79, 1holly1, Sierra Oscar, Zoney, griffdaddy, taytobreath, Nickla, MidMan25, Speak Now, downwiththatsor, hellyeah, loopymum, mountainy man, torres9kop, Greensoup, KathleenF, noobsnow95, knowall123, Pherekydes, Longing, vandriver, pistolpetes11, snow_bunny, crownhill, barney 20v, Timistry, onmebike, Dickie10, vizualpics, InstaSte, Bonzo Delaney, ascophyllum, Keisha07, ps200306, lolie, Arne_Saknussem, ZX7R, Blondie919, Holy Duck, Gonzo, DanielL18, Kermit.de.frog, notmypants, dsaint1, BLIZZARD7, alentejo, SwissToni, mirrorwall14, talkabout, Luke-m, JazzyJ, dense, king size mars bar, kerrycork13, Frostybrew, Oscar Bravo, hawkwing, snowjon, Colser, Kingswood Rover, wench, P_1, cnocbui, obriebm, elvis99, thecretinhop, Longboard, Benicetomonty, cefh17, vickers209, nuttyboy79, Robert McGrath, mikeecho, joinme, wexfordman2, aonchraic, joe316, droidman123, Natibaby, geraardo, Wobbuffet, Lucreto, Reckless Abandonment, icesnowfrost, flanzer, United road, Sammy2012, Lawnmo, jammiedodgers, jh79, Deatr, Aaronh86, dexter647, RobertKK, Soccarboy11, Vxlks, Tazio, robinwing, LEIN, Musicman2000, cwboy, hungoverbunny, nerrad1983, Burts Bee, Sirted, Bogsnorkler, golf nut, CB19Kevo, Weathercheck, cascade12, rabwaygal, The Gardener, 2013Lara, Dancewithme, KinnegadKid, Samash, little bess, Pentecost, Lenny5, munsterlegend


    A sure sign snow is in the offing:)

    Thanks for putting me second in the list Nacho :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,555 ✭✭✭wexfordman2


    THIS TELLS YOU ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW:

    501 (162 members & 339 guests) Moderators : 5

    nacho libre, pad199207, Alonso77, moon madness, RoryMac, gumgum1, kittyn, Gasco, gabeeg, lobo1, gerrybhoy, the quiet fella, cheekycheeky, NMB, Dank Janniels, JCX BXC, Lu Tze, mel.b, jay28, Rodar08, MJohnston, giveitholly, TheTorment, RedPeppers, pmq71, blackwave, Donegal Storm, Stevie79, 1holly1, Sierra Oscar, Zoney, griffdaddy, taytobreath, Nickla, MidMan25, Speak Now, downwiththatsor, hellyeah, loopymum, mountainy man, torres9kop, Greensoup, KathleenF, noobsnow95, knowall123, Pherekydes, Longing, vandriver, pistolpetes11, snow_bunny, crownhill, barney 20v, Timistry, onmebike, Dickie10, vizualpics, InstaSte, Bonzo Delaney, ascophyllum, Keisha07, ps200306, lolie, Arne_Saknussem, ZX7R, Blondie919, Holy Duck, Gonzo, DanielL18, Kermit.de.frog, notmypants, dsaint1, BLIZZARD7, alentejo, SwissToni, mirrorwall14, talkabout, Luke-m, JazzyJ, dense, king size mars bar, kerrycork13, Frostybrew, Oscar Bravo, hawkwing, snowjon, Colser, Kingswood Rover, wench, P_1, cnocbui, obriebm, elvis99, thecretinhop, Longboard, Benicetomonty, cefh17, vickers209, nuttyboy79, Robert McGrath, mikeecho, joinme, wexfordman2, aonchraic, joe316, droidman123, Natibaby, geraardo, Wobbuffet, Lucreto, Reckless Abandonment, icesnowfrost, flanzer, United road, Sammy2012, Lawnmo, jammiedodgers, jh79, Deatr, Aaronh86, dexter647, RobertKK, Soccarboy11, Vxlks, Tazio, robinwing, LEIN, Musicman2000, cwboy, hungoverbunny, nerrad1983, Burts Bee, Sirted, Bogsnorkler, golf nut, CB19Kevo, Weathercheck, cascade12, rabwaygal, The Gardener, 2013Lara, Dancewithme, KinnegadKid, Samash, little bess, Pentecost, Lenny5, munsterlegend


    A sure sign snow is in the offing:)

    Woo hoo, my name is on that list. I feel like I've just seen myself in the telly :-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 68 ✭✭Vxlks


    Oooooo can't wait to see this unfold gfs 18z


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 444 ✭✭Minister


    Woo hoo, my name is on that list. I feel like I've just seen myself in the telly :-)

    Mine isn't as i've just popped in!!!

    Well done to all of you who follow, analyse and impart to the rest of us mortals. It has been a fascinating few months since pre Ophelia. Thank you, and MT C of course.

    So, what are the chances of Waterford getting a good dollop of the white stuff?
    Thx.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,630 ✭✭✭ps200306


    Woo hoo, my name is on that list. I feel like I've just seen myself in the telly :-)
    Me too. It's like having a walk-on part in The Day After Tomorrow. I'm gonna be looking out for wolves on Dun Laoghaire pier.


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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    Pangea wrote: »
    Back in 2009/2010 I recall three weeks of snow cover here, snowed first then the deep freeze kept it.

    The difference I recall from those years was that when it fell it was wetter snow, so it packed into a sheet of ice on the roads, rather than staying as powder, which made driving on it very different. I had my 4x4 (still have it) in the 09/10 events, and it was great fun to drive on the higher ground up around Naull and Garristown in the fresh snow that got dumped on a regular basis by the Isle of Man streamer, much nicer to drive in than on the frozen ice that was on the lower roads.

    The next few days are for sure going to be an interesting period, that's for sure.

    What was thought provoking was the American (I think) temperature anomaly chart that shows the cold coming in from the East, then the warmer air almost getting back in from the South, before being pushed forcibly out by yet more cold from the North. If there's frontal activity in that phase, anything could be possible, depending on where the front tracks.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    If things do materialise with the strength of the sun - we will see temperatures by day in any sunshine reach reaching above zero in towns and cities, so there will be some melting!

    Just looking for some negatives to throw into the pot!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    If things do materialise with the strength of the sun - we will see temperatures by day in any sunshine reach reaching above zero in towns and cities, so there will be some melting!

    Just looking for some negatives to throw into the pot!

    Now why did you have to go and say that? :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Gerry's getting ready... :D

    442239.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Here she comes...

    gfsnh-0-144.png?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 239 ✭✭Steopo


    Getting really concerned about this now as I've to fly to the US on Monday. If I'm over there in balmy Feb weather (forecast 10c over there) & miss out on the first proper Easterly in 8 years I'll be so pissed off. Need this thing to roll in early Mon morning and force a flight cancellation !!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Steopo wrote: »
    Getting really concerned about this now as I've to fly to the US on Monday. If I'm over there in balmy Feb weather (forecast 10c over there) & miss out on the first proper Easterly in 8 years I'll be so pissed off. Need this thing to roll in early Mon morning and force a flight cancellation !!

    You might get lucky with that...

    18_156_ukthickness850.png?cb=21


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Here she comes...

    gfsnh-0-144.png?18

    Is she in even earlier in this run ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    This i think is as close to perfection as you can get.

    gfs-0-156.png?18?18

    gfs-1-162.png?18


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    18Z update, -10 uppers arriving across most of the country by 3am Monday morning, a good 12 hours earlier than on the 12z Update.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,666 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Is she in even earlier in this run ?

    It looks to be almost exactly the same, maybe like 3 hours delayed in this later run? But then at +147 it flips around and is arriving earlier.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    18Z arguably better than the 12Z. A lot more runs to go over the next couple of days.

    Need to stress that the real cold is still A WEEK away. That's a long time in weather terms.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    What a run, a proper run and a half. Was most certainly not expecting another upgrade!

    h850t850eu.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    18Z arguably better than the 12Z. A lot more runs to go over the next couple of days.

    Need to stress that the real cold is still A WEEK away. That's a long time in weather terms.

    Considering -10 uppers are arriving on 3am Monday, I'd argue that the cold is less than 6 days away.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,666 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Considering -10 uppers are arriving on 3am Monday, I'd argue that the cold is less than 6 days away.

    -12 by 1pm Monday even!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    The 18z gfs is taking new prisoners
    It would send very heavy snow showers into cork city and waterford
    It has -14 uppers onto the east coast
    -13 onto the south coast in a southeasterly fetch that would scoop up Atlantic moisture to pummel the south coast
    Incredible stuff really modeled for only a week away
    This would all be happening in sub zero day time temperatures
    It’s actually an unseen before unheard of scenario just 7 days away on this model :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    This i think is as close to perfection as you can get.

    Having the high a nudge further north would be better, pressure is fairly high with strong winds so showers wouldn't have a change to pick up much moisture, serious windchill though.

    Spectacular charts again though and no point looking at small details like that just yet. Now if they're still showing by Friday I'll be on board, heres hoping..

    Edit: Pressure lower as the run goes on and a couple of kinks in the flow so plenty of snow later on, about as good a run as I've ever seen!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 579 ✭✭✭Soccarboy11


    The 18z gfs is taking new prisoners
    It would send very heavy snow showers into cork city and waterford
    It has -14 uppers onto the east coast
    -13 onto the south coast in a southeasterly fetch that would scoop up Atlantic moisture to pummel the south coast
    Incredible stuff really modeled for only a week away
    This would all be happening in sub zero day time temperatures
    It’s actually an unseen before unheard of scenario just 7 days away on this model :eek:

    I'm loving the sound of this!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    18Z MUCH better than the 12z in my opinion, just for comparison purposes:

    18z
    h850t850eu.png

    12z
    h850t850eu.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Everything is backwards

    gfs-0-192.png?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    18_180_ukthickness850.png?cb=30

    -16c 850 temps over wales... Look where the 510 dam line is :eek:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,682 ✭✭✭Rougies


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    What a run, a proper run and a half. Was most certainly not expecting another upgrade!



    I'd agree it's another upgrade, deep cold arrives slightly earlier and hangs around a bit longer with a deeper cold pool to the east.

    Mesmerising charts this evening.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    -15c 850 hpa in to the southeast by the Wednesday morning

    gfs-1-204.png?18

    Sweet dreams!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,150 ✭✭✭jimmy G M


    Rougies wrote: »
    I'd agree it's another upgrade, deep cold arrives slightly earlier and hangs around a bit longer with a deeper cold pool to the east.

    Mesmerising charts this evening.

    Any thoughts on how long the cold snap could last?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,866 ✭✭✭Pentecost


    An idiot writes.....we’re not actually looking at the potential for -15/-16 type temperatures are we?! The country will go mental next weekend if this keeps up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Considering -10 uppers are arriving on 3am Monday, I'd argue that the cold is less than 6 days away.

    I'm just desperately trying to not get excited, Pay no attention to me.

    18Z is amazing to be fair. Every night for the last few nights I've been lying in bed looking at the 18Z and thinking it can't get any better and every night it has. When does it stop?!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Pentecost wrote: »
    An idiot writes.....we’re not actually looking at the potential for -15/-16 type temperatures are we?! The country will go mental next weekend if this keeps up.

    No they are 850hpa temperatures, Translate to about 0c daytime surface temps


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Global warming eh??
    The scientists might have to go back to the drawing board lol.

    Truly sensational charts
    I'm surprised the media haven't lamped it yet


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,254 ✭✭✭✭km79


    No they are 850hpa temperatures, Translate to about 0c daytime surface temps

    And at night ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 314 ✭✭NMB


    beautiful charts. I'll be buying a tonne of par cooked bread and uht milk near the end of the week. :cool:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Its not an exaggeration to say next week we could see conditions similar to late February 1947 if some of these charts come off, truly exceptional.


This discussion has been closed.
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