Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

ninebeanrows

If things do materialise with the strength of the sun - we will see temperatures by day in any sunshine reach reaching above zero in towns and cities, so there will be some melting!

Just looking for some negatives to throw into the pot!

pad199207

Weathercheck wrote: »

If things do materialise with the strength of the sun - we will see temperatures by day in any sunshine reach reaching above zero in towns and cities, so there will be some melting!

Just looking for some negatives to throw into the pot!

Now why did you have to go and say that?

dacogawa

Gerry's getting ready...

BLIZZARD7

Here she comes...

Steopo

Getting really concerned about this now as I've to fly to the US on Monday. If I'm over there in balmy Feb weather (forecast 10c over there) & miss out on the first proper Easterly in 8 years I'll be so pissed off. Need this thing to roll in early Mon morning and force a flight cancellation !!

BLIZZARD7

Steopo wrote: »

Getting really concerned about this now as I've to fly to the US on Monday. If I'm over there in balmy Feb weather (forecast 10c over there) & miss out on the first proper Easterly in 8 years I'll be so pissed off. Need this thing to roll in early Mon morning and force a flight cancellation !!

You might get lucky with that...

pad199207

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Here she comes...

Is she in even earlier in this run ?

ninebeanrows

This i think is as close to perfection as you can get.

JCX BXC

18Z update, -10 uppers arriving across most of the country by 3am Monday morning, a good 12 hours earlier than on the 12z Update.

MJohnston

pad199207 wrote: »

Is she in even earlier in this run ?

It looks to be almost exactly the same, maybe like 3 hours delayed in this later run? But then at +147 it flips around and is arriving earlier.

TheMilkyPirate

18Z arguably better than the 12Z. A lot more runs to go over the next couple of days.

Need to stress that the real cold is still A WEEK away. That's a long time in weather terms.

JCX BXC

What a run, a proper run and a half. Was most certainly not expecting another upgrade!

JCX BXC

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

18Z arguably better than the 12Z. A lot more runs to go over the next couple of days.

Need to stress that the real cold is still A WEEK away. That's a long time in weather terms.

Considering -10 uppers are arriving on 3am Monday, I'd argue that the cold is less than 6 days away.

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

Considering -10 uppers are arriving on 3am Monday, I'd argue that the cold is less than 6 days away.

-12 by 1pm Monday even!

George Sunsnow

The 18z gfs is taking new prisoners
It would send very heavy snow showers into cork city and waterford
It has -14 uppers onto the east coast
-13 onto the south coast in a southeasterly fetch that would scoop up Atlantic moisture to pummel the south coast
Incredible stuff really modeled for only a week away
This would all be happening in sub zero day time temperatures
It’s actually an unseen before unheard of scenario just 7 days away on this model :eek:

Donegal Storm

Weathercheck wrote: »

This i think is as close to perfection as you can get.

Having the high a nudge further north would be better, pressure is fairly high with strong winds so showers wouldn't have a change to pick up much moisture, serious windchill though.

Spectacular charts again though and no point looking at small details like that just yet. Now if they're still showing by Friday I'll be on board, heres hoping..

Edit: Pressure lower as the run goes on and a couple of kinks in the flow so plenty of snow later on, about as good a run as I've ever seen!

Soccarboy11

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The 18z gfs is taking new prisoners
It would send very heavy snow showers into cork city and waterford
It has -14 uppers onto the east coast
-13 onto the south coast in a southeasterly fetch that would scoop up Atlantic moisture to pummel the south coast
Incredible stuff really modeled for only a week away
This would all be happening in sub zero day time temperatures
It’s actually an unseen before unheard of scenario just 7 days away on this model :eek:

I'm loving the sound of this!

JCX BXC

18Z MUCH better than the 12z in my opinion, just for comparison purposes:

18z


12z

ninebeanrows

Everything is backwards

BLIZZARD7

-16c 850 temps over wales... Look where the 510 dam line is :eek:

Rougies

JCX BXC wrote: »

What a run, a proper run and a half. Was most certainly not expecting another upgrade!

I'd agree it's another upgrade, deep cold arrives slightly earlier and hangs around a bit longer with a deeper cold pool to the east.

Mesmerising charts this evening.

Kermit.de.frog

-15c 850 hpa in to the southeast by the Wednesday morning



Sweet dreams!

jimmy G M

Rougies wrote: »

I'd agree it's another upgrade, deep cold arrives slightly earlier and hangs around a bit longer with a deeper cold pool to the east.

Mesmerising charts this evening.

Any thoughts on how long the cold snap could last?

Pentecost

An idiot writes.....we’re not actually looking at the potential for -15/-16 type temperatures are we?! The country will go mental next weekend if this keeps up.

TheMilkyPirate

JCX BXC wrote: »

Considering -10 uppers are arriving on 3am Monday, I'd argue that the cold is less than 6 days away.

I'm just desperately trying to not get excited, Pay no attention to me.

18Z is amazing to be fair. Every night for the last few nights I've been lying in bed looking at the 18Z and thinking it can't get any better and every night it has. When does it stop?!

TheMilkyPirate

Pentecost wrote: »

An idiot writes.....we’re not actually looking at the potential for -15/-16 type temperatures are we?! The country will go mental next weekend if this keeps up.

No they are 850hpa temperatures, Translate to about 0c daytime surface temps

JanuarySnowstor

Global warming eh??
The scientists might have to go back to the drawing board lol.

Truly sensational charts
I'm surprised the media haven't lamped it yet

km79

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

No they are 850hpa temperatures, Translate to about 0c daytime surface temps

And at night ?

NMB

beautiful charts. I'll be buying a tonne of par cooked bread and uht milk near the end of the week. :cool:

BLIZZARD7

Its not an exaggeration to say next week we could see conditions similar to late February 1947 if some of these charts come off, truly exceptional.