GFS Promises Christmas Heatwave

Sponge Bob · 16-12-2011 12:35pm

Gahhhhhh.

It would have to be around 15c , eg

Source > http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=MTM02

Deep Easterly · 16-12-2011 12:43pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Would it have to be five days at 15.6 then to be heatwave???

Nope! A heatwave would imply that there is an unusually intense and prolonged period of heat, literally. 5 days of 15.6c I call more a 'mildwave'.

compsys · 16-12-2011 12:46pm

Heatwave refers to a sustained period of temperatures of around 5c above the average daily max. The average daily max in winter is around 8 degrees which would mean temperatures would have to reach 13c for it to be called a heatwave.

WolfeIRE · 16-12-2011 12:57pm

lolie · 16-12-2011 1:51pm

Just heard John eagleton on todayfm 12.45 news say 10 degrees on 24-25th, no record breakin weather on the way. Mite be repeated in next few minutes

WolfeIRE · 16-12-2011 1:57pm

lolie wrote: »

Just heard John eagleton on todayfm 12.45 news say 10 degrees on 24-25th, no record breakin weather on the way. Mite be repeated in next few minutes

That's a big call when the ECM and GEFS both show temps around 6-8c at best (most likely a degree or two lower) on 24th.

lolie · 16-12-2011 2:03pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

That's a big call when the ECM and GEFS both show temps around 6-8c at best (most likely a degree or two lower) on 24th.

He seemed very sure, just have to wait and see. Could be worth a small punt for a white chrimo

Deep Easterly · 16-12-2011 2:17pm

It's a brave call to make alright this far out. The model consensus seems to have us on borderline (average) territory around Christmas with the PF wavering close to Ireland. Whatever side of it will be under come the time is anybody's guess but 7c to 9c, being the average, would seem a fairly good guess at this point.

WolfeIRE · 16-12-2011 2:26pm

GEFS ensemble for Derry keeping us in this mild, cold, mild, cold setup.

Deep Easterly · 16-12-2011 2:32pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

GEFS ensemble for Derry keeping us in this mild, cold, mild, cold, mild, cold, mild, cold, mild, cold setup.

You mean, no heatwave?

lolie · 16-12-2011 2:49pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

You mean, no heatwave?

Dont tell poor sponge bob

Deep Easterly · 16-12-2011 3:14pm

Here is how the current ECMWF is looking for midnight on Christmas Eve:

A fairly consistent WSW'ly between areas of low pressure to our N and high pressure to our S or SW. Looks to be fairly in line with the ensemble chart Wolfe posted up with fairly changeable weather being the overall consensus. Mild to cool and back again and at this early stage it seems to be the luck of the draw as to which one will prevail at Christmas.

So, SpongeBob's chance of a having a mild/warm Christmas is looking to have a 50% chance at this stage. that is, either it will be or it won't.

Sponge Bob · 16-12-2011 3:20pm

Neither a non nor a no!

Nabber · 16-12-2011 3:34pm

Would prefer a heat wave to the Westerly set up

Christmas Eve... Same chart as last week, and the week before only different dates.

Deep Easterly · 16-12-2011 7:01pm

Latest GFS not in favour of a scorcher this Christmas:

Based on this one run, Sponge Bob's forecast of a warm Xmas is losing ground a little due a tend towards average to cool conditions for the big day:

Still plenty of room yet for the odds to tilt in favour of a more milder outcome over the following week or so. Don't lose hope just yet SB.

Christmas Tune Countdown: Christmas Day

Joe Public · 16-12-2011 7:18pm

Even the mild week is shortening to about 3 days.:eek:

Wertz · 16-12-2011 7:51pm

Joe Public wrote: »

Even the mild week is shortening to about 3 days.:eek:

Which way if you don't mind me asking? earlier or later in the week?

16-12-2011 8:01pm

I'll put the bikini away again so..:p

Sponge Bob · 16-12-2011 8:14pm

Wertz wrote: »

Which way if you don't mind me asking? earlier or later in the week?

Early. Hopefully all week and the following week but deffo early. Ignore the banal negativity from the graupel ghouls.

gbee · 16-12-2011 8:33pm

Ice Cream Queue Christmas Day outside Sponge Bobs house on December the 25th 2011

nacho libre · 17-12-2011 1:39am

So it looks like it's going to be more of the same till the new year, no noticeably mild weather nor noticeably cold weather either.

We have actually been quite lucky to get any snow at all really this month- in the past such a setup further north would have more than likely led to sw-ne jet profile, which in turn would have meant weeks of mild south westerlies.

looking ahead, if we can get lower pressure established into europe, it may facilitate height rises to the north east in the longer term, especially if there is a good warming event to disrupt the vortex towards the end of the month. If there is to be a significant change, models should be picking up on it around the second week in January.

Sponge Bob · 17-12-2011 9:27pm

Build Baby Build! :cool:

Harps · 17-12-2011 9:58pm

As posted in the FI thread, the GFS Op run seems to be overly optimistic with how mild it'll get and on high pressure building. Mean is still below zero for Christmas Day

davidsr20 · 17-12-2011 10:04pm

Such a depressing tread,anyway come on the cold!

Deep Easterly · 17-12-2011 10:57pm

Odds swinging back in favour of an average to mildish Christmas day, but with some cloud and rain as weak warm fronts move up from the SW:

Still 50/50 at this early stage but encouraging if you are Sponge Bob.

Cantona's Collars · 17-12-2011 11:07pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

Such a depressing tread,anyway come on the cold!

Google let it snow for your fix.

Su Campu · 19-12-2011 12:04am

Amazing to see the turn around within a week. The GFS for Wednesday shows T850 of almost +11 °C, and the freezing level around 3,500 m!

Dublin Airport forecast sounding, Wednesday 21st, 18Z

Sponge Bob · 19-12-2011 12:55am

Mmmmm, I can feel the warmth already. :cool:

ednwireland · 19-12-2011 9:25am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Mmmmm, I can feel the warmth already. :cool:

bring it on (although abit less rain would be nice)

currently 6.8 degrees and rain here

average_runner · 19-12-2011 9:44am

I dont mind the warm weather, but that means rain usually in winter.

Not exactly good weather to get around in!!

Deep Easterly · 19-12-2011 9:02pm

Latest 850hPa temp forecast for noon, Christmas Day:

IMAGE: Vedur.is
A relatively mild, but breezy and potential wet set up. GFS showing a similarly mild forecast but with frontal zones not so near to our shores.

Still to far out to be any way confident but odds still in favour of the milder outcome for Christmas Day. At this stage I'd say about 60% chance with 40% chance of it being cooler.

Christmas Tune Countdown: Christmastime

derekon · 19-12-2011 9:53pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Latest 850hPa temp forecast for noon, Christmas Day:

IMAGE: Vedur.is
A relatively mild, but breezy and potential wet set up. GFS showing a similarly mild forecast but with frontal zones not so near to our shores.

Still to far out to be any way confident but odds still in favour of the milder outcome for Christmas Day. At this stage I'd say about 60% chance with 40% chance of it being cooler.

Christmas Tune Countdown: Christmastime

Thanks for the above post DE.

I visit that Icelandic website often and find it very accurate, particularly in terms of temperature. I have checked it just now and it only runs up to midnight on Xmas Eve into Xmas morning - however your screen capture shows the time as midday on Xmas Day.

How do you extend the time period on that website? Do I do something with the link at the top of the page?

Thks

D

Deep Easterly · 19-12-2011 10:52pm

derekon wrote: »

Thanks for the above post DE.

How do you extend the time period on that website? Do I do something with the link at the top of the page?

Thks

D

You can change the forecast period by changing the actual image url, for example:

http://www.vedur.is/photos/sjo_atlant_hitaspa/111219_1200_12.png

the last section of the url shows the forecast chart for 12hrs ahead (or from the actual run time) i.e, the '12' before the .png. If you change the number in this section in increments of 6 you can go right up to 240hrs (10 days, which is how far the ECMWF forecast charts go)

EG:

Forecast for 18hrs:
http://www.vedur.is/photos/sjo_atlant_hitaspa/111219_1200_18.png

Forecast for 144hr:
http://www.vedur.is/photos/sjo_atlant_hitaspa/111219_1200_144.png

Forecast for 240hr:
http://www.vedur.is/photos/sjo_atlant_hitaspa/111219_1200_240.png

You can do the same with the wind speed and rainfall charts as well although the forecast precipitation only shown up to 132hrs.

bryaner · 20-12-2011 2:26pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Not at all Just wanted to mention it as I have 20 euro on snow falling in Dublin during Christmas Day. Got the bet at 9/2 in November. Also, the thought of a white xmas is lovely even though the chances of same are now low.

Should any cold materialise next week, it will be another dose of this northwesterly maritime influenced showery weather and even then not anywhere as cold as it was this week. That's the way it looks at present.

I'll buy that bet of ya for €1

Su Campu · 20-12-2011 2:28pm

There is a chance of brief snow on high ground in the northwest late Thursday and into Friday morning before mild air pushes in again.

WolfeIRE · 20-12-2011 2:34pm

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

I still cannot get my head around James Madden's post on Sunday. I find it incredible. What, where, how did he come up with this conclusion. Why would he make a complete mockery of the long range forecasting game by producing such a misjudged short to medium range forecast.

The media has not mentioned his latest forecast and no doubt will not mention the "-20c within weeks" stories they ran in October.

Was James' website hacked? Or is he a chancer? One or the other.

mike65 · 20-12-2011 2:41pm

Thats barking stuff (esp as its been up for 2 days)

NIALL D · 20-12-2011 8:18pm

i was reading somewhere there expecting temps around 4 - 6 degrees or that in scotland on xmas day.. like it could possibly snow on the highest mountains there couldnt it ??
and as they say it only takes one snow flake to the ground to call it an official white christmas ..
not backing him up , but is there a possibility it could snow in scotland ? cause if it did he will probably turn around and say there was snow and he was right !!

Kippure · 20-12-2011 8:20pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

I still cannot get my head around James Madden's post on Sunday. I find it incredible. What, where, how did he come up with this conclusion. Why would he make a complete mockery of the long range forecasting game by producing such a misjudged short to medium range forecast.

The media has not mentioned his latest forecast and no doubt will not mention the "-20c within weeks" stories they ran in October.

Was James' website hacked? Or is he a chancer? One or the other.

Mate i,m truly lost for words too.

Deep Easterly · 20-12-2011 8:21pm

ECMWF, GFS & UKMO 12z runs continuing to show a mild, breezy if gloomy Christmas Day:

Kippure · 20-12-2011 8:25pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECMWF, GFS & UKMO 12z runs continuing to show a mild, breezy if gloomy Christmas Day:

At this range, it is what it is. A mild christmas.

cherryghost · 20-12-2011 9:11pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

I still cannot get my head around James Madden's post on Sunday. I find it incredible. What, where, how did he come up with this conclusion. Why would he make a complete mockery of the long range forecasting game by producing such a misjudged short to medium range forecast.

The media has not mentioned his latest forecast and no doubt will not mention the "-20c within weeks" stories they ran in October.

Was James' website hacked? Or is he a chancer? One or the other.

Trolling of the highest caliber!

Harps · 20-12-2011 9:17pm

I assume he's just trying to grab a few headlines again so more people check out his website, no other sensible reasoning behind it

It certainly is looking bleak at the moment, I'm heading back to the west coast for Christmas week so endless low cloud and drizzle to look forward to :rolleyes:

Su Campu · 20-12-2011 9:37pm

I left a message in his guestbook, but by the looks of the other complimentary messages that appear there I don't stand much chance of getting it published.

http://www.exactaweather.com/Guestbook.php?posted=1

patneve2 · 20-12-2011 9:55pm

Its all publicity, I wouldn't even access his site. Some people are good forecasters, others are just sensationalists that want to make money and need the publicity. Makes me angry.

Deep Easterly · 20-12-2011 10:14pm

Kippure wrote: »

,I'm truly lost for words too.

I am not sure why..

It isn't as if this guy's 'long-range' (or even short or medium-range) forecasts are any way credible or accurate. This is the same fella that predicted some sort of big freeze for last October, and was influential enough to have this totally baseless forecast quoted by the national media which hyped people up expecting something that didn't, and was unlikely, to happen.

People (not us weather enthusiasts of course) seem to have a short memory though and still continue to be drawn in by these totally rubbish forecasts because it tells them what they want to hear. It is pure an utter tabloidism which plays on the ignorance of others.

pauldry · 20-12-2011 10:47pm

Apart from a blip on December 23 when temperatures will be in single figures and prob around 5 to 8c the charts look like 9 to 11c most days pre and post xmas right up to the new year.

In fact Germany, France and some of those countries look like having a very dry couple of weeks. However I would say that here it will be drizzly and wet too in the North and West at times.

This just what im picking up from charts so cant understand why someone would think snow. The only snow in Sligo so far this winter that lay on low levels was when the jetstream was pulled South by a storm that hit France.

There are no such scenarios in 2011(hope that by predicting all this Ill jinx it and lows will somehow miraculously dig down like last year). Id say the chances of a white christmas are around 25/1 now even. Does anybody think thats being too negative or is it realistic?

Sponge Bob · 20-12-2011 10:59pm

The chances for christmas are more like 100-1 Paul.

Thought I'd take this opportunity to wish y'áll a happy new year.

Musicman2000 · 20-12-2011 11:53pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The chances for christmas are more like 100-1 Paul.

Thought I'd take this opportunity to wish y'áll a happy new year.

Why anyone would like this dull, grey, damp depressing weather is beyond me. Ok it will save on the heating bills, nothing like cold sunny clear days in winter.

Harps · 21-12-2011 2:14am

A bit confused as to what I'm seeing here, from what I can tell both are showing the 850hPa temps for Thursday morning yet they're showing a massive difference.

HIRLAM makes a lot more sense so I assume I'm reading the NAE chart wrong?

GFS Promises Christmas Heatwave

Comments