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GFS Promises Christmas Heatwave

245

Comments

  • #52
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Heatwave??? ha ha Bob I think you need to move to Oz for xmas, It could get mild and that is hanging by a thread at the moment, There is a change on the way in the next 2 weeks and instead of Bob's heatwave, It could be winter woolies needed:)


  • #53
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 777 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    Did it not occur that a bit of reverse psychology might go a long way here. We all know anything out of the ordinary on the models falls apart 3-5 days before the event. (most of the time - just our fecking luck this one will come to fruition)

    Xmas day barbie on Dollymount beach anyone?


  • #54
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »
    Xmas day barbie on Dollymount beach anyone?
    Fabulous idea! Get organising.


  • #55
    force eleven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    Increasingly wintery outputs this morning. Brief milder interlude early next week and then all bets off.


  • #56
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,967 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    DarkJager wrote: »
    Na, freaky January with 20c+ temps would suit me fine :D best winter ever so far!

    tbh I wouldnt mind that! that would be warmer than any time over last summer!


  • #57
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,169 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Folks, if the GFS was showing an easterly in 12 days time and I started a thread about it all the naysayers on here would laugh and say that it was in FI. Why is mild weather in FI so much more set in stone?

    In any event, from looking at models and from Netweather, my sense is its still all to play for on Christmas day and it certainly could be a snowy christmas season (nearer New Year).

    I'm off to post on the White Christmas thread which is alive and well!


  • #58
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Yesterday's GFS projection of 10-12c temps for xmas day have now been shaved down to 4-8c at best, mildest in coastal parts of the southwest and west.

    185060.png


  • #59
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    wetterzentrale says 8-10 max.


  • #60
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,169 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Yesterday's GFS projection of 10-12c temps for xmas day have now been shaved down to 4-8c at best, mildest in coastal parts of the southwest and west.

    185060.png

    And there is a whole lot of cold air not far away. Wouldn't take much to change for those off to the beach for their BBQ on Xmas day to need to bring snow tyres (with their hats, scarfs and gloves) just in case.......


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  • #61
    maw368
    Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭maw368


    Warm at this time of year is just miserable BUT I would prefer ir to the repeated lashings I have been getting while cycling to work every day. But if it is warm then there has to be (for my sanity) a major snow and cold period in January... to June :)


  • #62
    Wertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,909 ✭✭✭✭Wertz


    Any of our model experts care to commit or not to the possibility of some calm, relatively dry and mild days next week?


  • #63
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Wertz wrote: »
    Any of our model experts care to commit or not to the possibility of some calm, relatively dry and mild days next week?

    Next week in particular from Wednesday is looking quite settled and dry, With daytime temperatures anywhere from 9-13 degrees.


  • #64
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Much better looking Gfs 12z run, The mild temps never really getting going, and look what is building to our east still FI but lets hope it continues.

    gfs-1-348.png?12


  • #65
    Nabber
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Christmas day heat wave is starting to fade on some of the models. Look at Sy Stephens day.

    prectypeuktopo.png


  • #66
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Evelyn Cusack previewed the warmer spell starting on Sunday during her 6pm news forecast. Bless her if she didn't smile broadly when she used the word "warmer". :)

    Roll on the christmas.


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  • #67
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    ugh mild christmas nothing could be worse:( i dont really want it to be snowing around xmas because it ruins travel plans but i still want it to be cold and frosty!


  • #68
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Evelyn has just predicted 10 °C on Christmas Day. :)


  • #69
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    She has indeed, the coldest of rampers has broken a 1000 hearts lol
    Of course those of us who are old and wise enough know that this actually increases the chances of snow at Christmas.
    Silly statement by Evelyn 10days out one which could easily come back to bite her in the rear!!

    In fact she couldn't even get tonight right forecasting widespread snow showers.
    Wtf did she get this from, all models are showing coastal showers at best.

    Boy am I glad we have access to the charts ourselves to make and decipher a proper forecast


  • #70
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Great, Evelyn is finally getting on message with Sponge Bob and the goblins and graupel ghouls have been banished until January. :D


  • #71
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Evelyn has just predicted 10 °C on Christmas Day. :)

    looking like that at this stage. a brave call when you consider ME called a xmas day thaw fourdays prior to the day itself in 2010. It eventually occurred on 27 th. Either way a big rise in temps is on the way next week as evelyn said.


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  • #72
    delw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Evelyn has just predicted 10 °C on Christmas Day. :)
    what happened to not being able to predict that far out :confused:


  • #73
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    10C would be a Christmas heatwave, 25C warmer than last Christmas...


  • #74
    dexter647
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭dexter647


    delw wrote: »
    what happened to not being able to predict that far out :confused:

    indeed delw:rolleyes:.... And in a week when the models showed us how unreliable they are even just 4 to 5 days ahead to say it's going to be 10c on christmas day is a very brave statement by Evelyn


  • #75
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Isn't it jus tlovely to have a thread that does not mention the 's' word in this forum :D


  • #76
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,990 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    delw wrote: »
    what happened to not being able to predict that far out :confused:

    They can go 10 days ahead. They are usually more confident of doing so if it's looking like warmer weather. If they see signs of a significant cold and snowy spell for around the 10th of January, you probably won't see Evelyn make mention of it on the 31st of this month. Partly because so many more things can go wrong in predicting snowy conditions. Another reason is most of the public perceive snowy conditions as bad weather. So i suspect they don't want to give bad news till they really have to.


  • #77
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Yes, it's a much safer bet when there's a big fat high moving up towards us, as this is a fairly stable setup and unlikely to spring surprises.


  • #78
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,990 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well hopefully this high is a case of short term pain... so soak up the sun bob while you can over Christmas, you'll be shivering sometime in January :D


  • #79
    Aiel
    Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Aiel


    When i was younger i would have been saddened to hear of mild weather coming for Christmas week.However its a few years on now and i now have heating bills to pay so im alot happier so far this winter compared to last when i then had my heat going 24/7 for 3 months straight.A few days of snow in January would be nice though:).


  • #80
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    More good news. :D

    185409.png


  • #81
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,761 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    More good news. :D

    185409.png

    I would consider that a waste at this time of year - lets save the hotstuff for summer!!;)


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  • #82
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I consider having the heat on all christmas a woeful waste. There are plenty of other threads around where the graupel ghouls can haunt each other so leave this one for the good news. :D


  • #83
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,761 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    I consider having the heat on all christmas a woeful waste.:D

    Its worse having it on in May and June:(


  • #84
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    all models showing a cold snap from 23 to xmas morning. one to watch if you have a white xmas bet on. either side of these dates temps are a few degrees above average for the time of year


  • #85
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,162 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    graupel ghouls

    :D Good one! Count me in to that category!


  • #86
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    all models showing a cold snap from 23 to xmas morning. one to watch if you have a white xmas bet on. either side of these dates temps are a few degrees above average for the time of year

    I love the way the snow lovers still manage to get their spoke in about a cold spell here:D


  • #87
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,185 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Yes, it's a much safer bet when there's a big fat high moving up towards us, as this is a fairly stable setup and unlikely to spring surprises.
    How long is it since we've seen the Azores high make an appearance like this?
    The good summer of 2006 perhaps?
    Remember all that talk about the gulf stream being dead and weather patterns changing in the North Atlantic and mini ice ages etc. All ancient history now as zonality returns with a vengeance!
    PS. I think next summer will be a long overdue hot one.


  • #88
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    leahyl wrote: »
    I love the way the snow lovers still manage to get their spoke in about a cold spell here:D

    Not at all :) Just wanted to mention it as I have 20 euro on snow falling in Dublin during Christmas Day. Got the bet at 9/2 in November. Also, the thought of a white xmas is lovely even though the chances of same are now low.

    Should any cold materialise next week, it will be another dose of this northwesterly maritime influenced showery weather and even then not anywhere as cold as it was this week. That's the way it looks at present.


  • #89
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Not at all :) Just wanted to mention it as I have 20 euro on snow falling in Dublin during Christmas Day. Got the bet at 9/2 in November. Also, the thought of a white xmas is lovely even though the chances of same are now low.

    Should any cold materialise next week, it will be another dose of this northwesterly maritime influenced showery weather and even then not anywhere as cold as it was this week. That's the way it looks at present.

    Oh no I don't mind - I think it's brilliant!!:D It's really annoying that it's not even going to be crisp, cold next week. Even if I had that I'd be happy:)


  • #90
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,169 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Lads this thread is now defunct. GFS is not showing a heatwave, on the contrary its showing -4's 850 temps over the country generally for the days immediately before and after Christmas day. Now I don't know how some people on here define a heatwave but...........


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  • #91
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Graupel Ghoul Holding Pen > THIS WAY, :cool: Ta! :cool:


  • #92
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Lads this thread is now defunct. GFS is not showing a heatwave, on the contrary its showing -4's 850 temps over the country generally for the days immediately before and after Christmas day. Now I don't know how some people on here define a heatwave but...........
    The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 Celsius degrees (9 Fahrenheit degrees), the normal period being 1961–1990.

    We might get 2-3 days of the temp being along the lines of the above. Technically not a heatwave but then again I think the thread title did not mean it in the literal sense.


  • #93
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,169 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 Celsius degrees (9 Fahrenheit degrees), the normal period being 1961–1990.

    We might get 2-3 days of the temp being along the lines of the above. Technically not a heatwave but then again I think the thread title did not mean it in the literal sense.

    You learn something new everyday! Thanks Wolfie.


  • #94
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 Celsius degrees (9 Fahrenheit degrees), the normal period being 1961–1990.
    The average is around c.5.5c so if the temperature hits 10.5c every day for 5 days it is OFFICIALLY a Heatwave. Wooooo Hooooooooooo! Result! :D


  • #95
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    We are staying in this cold (w-nw), mild (sw), cold, mild setup into the early days of 2012.


  • #96
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    The average is around c.5.5c so if the temperature hits 10.5c every day for 5 days it is OFFICIALLY a Heatwave. Wooooo Hooooooooooo! Result! :D

    Is 5.5 the average or the daily maximim average? ;)


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  • #97
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    The average is around c.5.5c so if the temperature hits 10.5c every day for 5 days it is OFFICIALLY a Heatwave. Wooooo Hooooooooooo! Result! :D

    I don't think so. ;)


  • #98
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    Is 5.5 the average or the daily maximim average? ;)
    Daily maximum average. It is actually 5.3c because the reference period for a Heatwave outperformance is normally 1961-1990, source for the 5.3c value is MT here

    If we have 5 consecutive days where the Daily Tmax value hits :cool: 10.3c :cool: then we have a Heatwave.

    Bring it on and make Evelyn smile even more.


  • #99
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Do you think my 1cm of snow will stay on the ground until Christmas Day? :p


  • #100
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Daily maximum average. It is actually 5.3c because the reference period for a Heatwave outperformance is normally 1961-1990, source for the 5.3c value is MT here

    If we have 5 consecutive days where the Daily Tmax value hits :cool: 10.3c :cool: then we have a Heatwave.

    Bring it on and make Evelyn smile even more.

    :confused:

    SpongeBob, I think you are misreading the stats! The mean daily maxima ranges between 7c and 9c at this time of year. The actual mean, that is, the average of both max and min, is around 5.5c for mid December.

    Re-read M.T's post for the love of God!


  • #101
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Daily maximum average. It is actually 5.3c because the reference period for a Heatwave outperformance is normally 1961-1990, source for the 5.3c value is MT here

    If we have 5 consecutive days where the Daily Tmax value hits :cool: 10.3c :cool: then we have a Heatwave.

    Bring it on and make Evelyn smile even more.

    I think the average and the daily maximum average are different though.

    Say average minimum is 0c and average max is 10.6, this would be average is 5.3. Would it have to be five days at 15.6 then to be heatwave???


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