Brexit consequences for Irish farmers

I said · 20-02-2016 2:07pm #1

Well will it be a disaster or opportunity for us?

tanko · 20-02-2016 2:59pm

It's highly unlikely to happen I'd imagine.

ganmo · 20-02-2016 9:41pm

It's going to be an almighty pain if they leave.
The polls are saying its 50/50 atm

tractorporn · 20-02-2016 10:34pm

tanko wrote:

It's highly unlikely to happen I'd imagine.

Having lived in England I disagree. The ordinary English man feels that "Europe" is taking money out of their pocket. It's only the farming community and business exporting that want them to stay in.

catbear · 21-02-2016 8:11pm

regardless of if they're in or out they still have to eat or will they simply eat less?

Count Mondego · 21-02-2016 8:25pm

It would be impossible to tell until it happens. If they did leave it doesn't necessarily mean that tariffs would be imposed on Irish beef exports. We are one of the biggest importers of English exports in the world so it would work both ways.

blue5000 · 21-02-2016 10:11pm

I'd say anyone farming in the border area could have a lucrative alternative enterprise.

It will be bad for beef, I reckon if they leave they'll be buying it in as cheap as possible from S. America. Uk farmers can kiss SFP goodbye.

It could be good for fresh produce, eg milk.

Nekarsulm · 21-02-2016 10:50pm

Was listening to , I think, Donnaldson on RTE last week about this. His take on it was, there has never been a year yet where the UK actually received more from Europe than they contributed. He claimed that the UK government could pay farm supports at the same level and save money overall. Of course it's easy to promise, but Governments are well known for going back on promises....

Count Mondego · 21-02-2016 11:15pm

Nekarsulm wrote: »

Was listening to , I think, Donnaldson on RTE last week about this. His take on it was, there has never been a year yet where the UK actually received more from Europe than they contributed. He claimed that the UK government could pay farm supports at the same level and save money overall. Of course it's easy to promise, but Governments are well known for going back on promises....

Since the rationing in the second world war, the priority of every government has been to provide cheap food, at the detriment of the UK farmer. Don't know how well they'd be looked after.

Nekarsulm · 22-02-2016 12:11am

Count Mondego wrote: »

Don't know how well they'd be looked after.

I know Labour and Corbyn are practically unelectable, but I wouldn't like to be a UK farmer if Kerry McCarthy was Minister of Ag. !

topmanamillion · 22-02-2016 12:19am

Not a fear would Britain impose tariffs on us. They know well where there bread is buttered.
It's a much larger issue than jus farming.
Theres 20k NHS vacancies and we have degree level nurse streaming out of our 3rd level institutions July.
Theres the fact it would go against the good Friday agreement to block any free movement with the North.
It wouldn't make any sense to rock the boat for Britain or us. I would say Kenny (most likely Taoiseach in the summer) would have a trip to Downing Street and a pretty handy trade deal to sign.

kowtow · 22-02-2016 11:55am

I think it is fair to say that Boris' decision to come out for a "Brexit" vote is a game changer.

Interestingly he's gone straight to the unease at the heart of all this, which is sovereignty. I suspect that the scripted drama in Brussels over the past few weeks has left many in the UK feeling that Cameron is little more than a technocrat - albeit a sensible, patriotic, one - who defines sovereignty as a fluid concept, as "the ability to get things done" - whereas in reality it is not a matter of opinion or degree actually something more important. The Sovereignty of Parliament ought properly - I think - to be a matter for the heart as much as the head. Short term considerations and gain need to be put aside, Delegata potestas non potest delegari.

There is a trite - but informative - comparison here between Chamberlain & Churchill in the late thirties - Like Cameron, Chamberlain focussed on practicality, risk, and short term advantage. He sought, and got, a political accommodation. Churchill refused to turn a diplomatic blind eye to the realities in Europe, and spoke from the heart. As it happens, the British people felt precisely the same way despite the military, financial, and political risk and the rest is history.

The problem with Europe is that to work properly it requires the people of Europe to be Citizens not of their own countries, but of a greater Europe. It is a Federal project - and you can't dress it up as something else by expunging the sovereign powers of member states and referring to them as "competences". You cannot share sovereignty, or at least - as Ireland & Greece have found out to their cost - you can't share it when it matters, and that is what actually counts.

If I am correct - and these points are articulated in the campaign with Boris, Gove & Co in the forefront, this will be a very close race.

Consequences for Ireland and it's farmers - very few. Irish citizens have always had identical rights in the UK to UK citizens, since long before the EU was dreamt of. We are huge trading partners, have always been, and will continue to be. Attempts by Irish political leaders to talk up Brexit look like the kid at the back of the class trying to get noticed.

Who knows, in the short term Europe might be extra generous in case we get any ideas.

In the long term, whatever the outcome of Brexit, the EU may be seriously damaged unless the Euro Core integrate fast. This is where the serious choices for Ireland will begin.

Nekarsulm · 22-02-2016 12:34pm

Cameron had promised the people a vote on Europe, and so is fulfilling his promise. The "vote" hovering in the background probably was useful in Cameron's summit last week, and now that he has got some accomodation on some of his bugbears, that stick to wave is not really needed. However the voting public may still give him a scare, come June. One sure thing, from the Daily Mail to the Sport, the anti EU papers will whip themsrlves into a fury of righteous indignation!

catbear · 22-02-2016 12:57pm

I don't think Cameron has anything but assurances that things he's concerned about will be discussed at future EU summits. That's nothing solid.

All he's done is attack the EU status quo which actually favours the UK greatly as it stands.

ganmo · 22-02-2016 1:18pm

kowtow wrote: »

Consequences for Ireland and it's farmers - very few. Irish citizens have always had identical rights in the UK to UK citizens, since long before the EU was dreamt of. We are huge trading partners, have always been, and will continue to be. Attempts by Irish political leaders to talk up Brexit look like the kid at the back of the class trying to get noticed.

Who knows, in the short term Europe might be extra generous in case we get any ideas.

In the long term, whatever the outcome of Brexit, the EU may be seriously damaged unless the Euro Core integrate fast. This is where the serious choices for Ireland will begin.

there is a train of thought that if the uk exit the eu Ireland could benefit considerably by being the only english speaking country in the Eu. If we maintain our 'open' trade with the UK and stay within the EU it could possibly be Win Win.

ganmo · 22-02-2016 2:57pm

hahaha

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patsy_mccabe · 22-02-2016 4:24pm

If they leave, Slab Murphy could open up his own consultancy.:rolleyes:

MickeyShtyles · 23-02-2016 1:58pm

Was at an Ag society dinner in UK over the weekend. From the big lads farming a few thousand acres to the dairy managers and contractors, there all fairly worried over it. Thought it'd be the other way round....

_Brian · 23-02-2016 2:17pm

Being selfish about it I think British farmers will lose SFP, this will in time lead to an increase in cattle prices in the uk. Hopefully this would drive more northern dealers into the south to lift prices.
I'm sure farmers in the uk are very worried. Even if they introduce a locally funded direct payment it could be slashed with a change of government.

I think the notion of restored sovereignty will be very popular with the general British public and it may overshadow the practical decisions needed.

I was reading an article last night that said the Italians are watching this tightly as the next EU nation to consider an exit. This could actually be the beginning of the unraveling of the EU and I think if the British leave more countries are sure to follow.

tractorporn · 23-02-2016 2:43pm

_Brian wrote:

Being selfish about it I think British farmers will lose SFP, this will in time lead to an increase in cattle prices in the uk. Hopefully this would drive more northern dealers into the south to lift prices.

Do you think that the loss in SFP will lead to a drop in beef numbers over there or how do you think the price will rise?

_Brian · 23-02-2016 3:20pm

tractorporn wrote: »

Do you think that the loss in SFP will lead to a drop in beef numbers over there or how do you think the price will rise?

I think a drop in numbers is possible.
There's no doubting the SFP has driven down cattle prices as a means of providing affordable food for the masses. I think that without the SFP the price will make its way to a level that sustainable for farmers. This will surely cause upward pressure on prices. It wouldn't be an easy journey and an amount of the market will be filled with cheap imports, hopefully some of which we can supply.

catbear · 23-02-2016 4:00pm

Isn't the GBP strong because the UK is in the EU?

I've seen more estimates of the pounds purchasing power being reduced between 20-30% so exporters would lose lose UK demand. It may not be the UKs freedom to trade outside the EU like with argentina that would be the problem but generally the UKs inability to consume like before.

So we lose the UK, then there's the rising middle class of China who are cultivating a taste for the quality produce from around the world, even KFC use the positive food quality perception of Ireland.

blue5000 · 23-02-2016 9:17pm

kowtow wrote: »

I think it is fair to say that Boris' decision to come out for a "Brexit" vote is a game changer.

Interestingly he's gone straight to the unease at the heart of all this, which is sovereignty. I suspect that the scripted drama in Brussels over the past few weeks has left many in the UK feeling that Cameron is little more than a technocrat - albeit a sensible, patriotic, one - who defines sovereignty as a fluid concept, as "the ability to get things done" - whereas in reality it is not a matter of opinion or degree actually something more important. The Sovereignty of Parliament ought properly - I think - to be a matter for the heart as much as the head. Short term considerations and gain need to be put aside, Delegata potestas non potest delegari.

There is a trite - but informative - comparison here between Chamberlain & Churchill in the late thirties - Like Cameron, Chamberlain focussed on practicality, risk, and short term advantage. He sought, and got, a political accommodation. Churchill refused to turn a diplomatic blind eye to the realities in Europe, and spoke from the heart. As it happens, the British people felt precisely the same way despite the military, financial, and political risk and the rest is history.

The problem with Europe is that to work properly it requires the people of Europe to be Citizens not of their own countries, but of a greater Europe. It is a Federal project - and you can't dress it up as something else by expunging the sovereign powers of member states and referring to them as "competences". You cannot share sovereignty, or at least - as Ireland & Greece have found out to their cost - you can't share it when it matters, and that is what actually counts.

If I am correct - and these points are articulated in the campaign with Boris, Gove & Co in the forefront, this will be a very close race.

Consequences for Ireland and it's farmers - very few. Irish citizens have always had identical rights in the UK to UK citizens, since long before the EU was dreamt of. We are huge trading partners, have always been, and will continue to be. Attempts by Irish political leaders to talk up Brexit look like the kid at the back of the class trying to get noticed.

Who knows, in the short term Europe might be extra generous in case we get any ideas.

In the long term, whatever the outcome of Brexit, the EU may be seriously damaged unless the Euro Core integrate fast. This is where the serious choices for Ireland will begin.

Well said kowtow.
I wonder is there still a lot of anti-german feeling in GB, seems like Greece has it anyway. A feeling of 'we won the war but now we are losing an economic war'.

catbear · 23-02-2016 11:51pm

blue5000 wrote: »

Well said kowtow.
I wonder is there still a lot of anti-german feeling in GB.

No, they absolutely fawn over their royals.

Alibaba · 07-05-2016 2:58pm

I wonder could this hit cattle prices here if Britain decides to leave.

I'd be a bit worried buying dear cattle at the moment with Brexit hanging over us.

BoatMad · 07-05-2016 3:58pm

Consequences for Ireland and it's farmers - very few. Irish citizens have always had identical rights in the UK to UK citizens, since long before the EU was dreamt of. We are huge trading partners, have always been, and will continue to be. Attempts by Irish political leaders to talk up Brexit look like the kid at the back of the class trying to get noticed.

The difference is Ireland cannot negotiate trade agreements with a non EU country outside the general Control of overarching eu trade agreements

That has never been the situation before , Ireland and the U.K. were fully sovereign nations and could conclude trade deals . Ireland can no longer do that in the eu

Irish citizens have " rights" in the uk purely as a result of uk laws , those rights can be removed in the morning

To suggest that the consequence of brexit would be small on Ireland is absolutely the most stupid thing to say

kowtow · 07-05-2016 4:02pm

BoatMad wrote:

The difference is Ireland cannot negotiate trade agreements with a non EU country outside the general Control of overarching eu trade agreements

I think if you look at the original accession documents for the UK and Ireland you will see that there is a specific carve out in respect of the traditional UK + Irish position.

There is no reason whatsover to believe that the UK would wish to remove the long standing entitlements of Irish/ UK households. Have you seen any such suggestion?

BoatMad · 07-05-2016 4:09pm

kowtow wrote: »

I think if you look at the original accession documents for the UK and Ireland you will see that there is a specific carve out in respect of the traditional UK + Irish position.

There is no reason whatsover to believe that the UK would wish to remove the long standing entitlements of Irish/ UK households. Have you seen any such suggestion?

I say again, there is no guarantee that Ireland would be able to negotiate favourable access to uk markets over and above the overall EU position and we would be subject to a common EU wide agreement

The imposition of vat at the point of import would be a significant cash flow hit for importers here alone , not to mention custom clearances delays

The issue of free movement of people could clearly affect the common travel area and the rights of Irish citizens to move to the uk etc

You simply cannot state that the risks are " few" you have no idea

My view is a uk leaving the EU will have massive and huge effects on Ireland and on the Eu, it will be a seismic effect and the EU will be a lot poorer in many ways as a result. I think it will ultimately leads to its breakup too

Waffletraktor · 07-05-2016 4:22pm

BoatMad wrote: »

I say again, there is no guarantee that Ireland would be able to negotiate favourable access to uk markets over and above the overall EU position and we would be subject to a common EU wide agreement

The imposition of vat at the point of import would be a significant cash flow hit for importers here alone , not to mention custom clearances delays

The issue of free movement of people could clearly affect the common travel area and the rights of Irish citizens to move to the uk etc

You simply cannot state that the risks are " few" you have no idea

My view is a uk leaving the EU will have massive and huge effects on Ireland and on the Eu, it will be a seismic effect and the EU will be a lot poorer in many ways as a result. I think it will ultimately leads to its breakup too

Yes ireland will, the british consider Ireland as themselves more than any other nation. And ireland is too valuable to change any agreements so long as things like border control are kept to an acceptable standard which shouldnt be too hard unless you go all Sweden. Ireland is no threat really to the Uk and bar a few decades in the early 20th century has been supplying plentiful and affordable food to the Uk, they need each other just as much.

I would say you are right about the Eu, they much like the British over value their new position in the world and has become a runaway train. Is the Netherlands and Italy not meant to be seriously considering such actions aswel?!

Alibaba · 07-05-2016 4:24pm

BoatMad wrote: »

I say again, there is no guarantee that Ireland would be able to negotiate favourable access to uk markets over and above the overall EU position and we would be subject to a common EU wide agreement

The imposition of vat at the point of import would be a significant cash flow hit for importers here alone , not to mention custom clearances delays

The issue of free movement of people could clearly affect the common travel area and the rights of Irish citizens to move to the uk etc

You simply cannot state that the risks are " few" you have no idea

My view is a uk leaving the EU will have massive and huge effects on Ireland and on the Eu, it will be a seismic effect and the EU will be a lot poorer in many ways as a result. I think it will ultimately leads to its breakup too

+1 Huge implications for this country and all of Europe as well.

BoatMad · 07-05-2016 4:32pm

Waffletraktor wrote: »

Yes ireland will, the british consider Ireland as themselves more than any other nation. And ireland is too valuable to change any agreements so long as things like border control are kept to an acceptable standard which shouldnt be too hard unless you go all Sweden. Ireland is no threat really to the Uk and bar a few decades in the early 20th century has been supplying plentiful and affordable food to the Uk, they need each other just as much.

I would say you are right about the Eu, they much like the British over value their new position in the world and has become a runaway train. Is the Netherlands and Italy not meant to be seriously considering such actions aswel?!

Again, Ireland has no guarantee that it can negioate trade agreements that are more beneficial to it , over any other EU country . Therefor unless Ireland can get majority agreement around the EU , it will be stuck with the provisions of a EU trade agreement.

The situation regarding Ireland and uk food supply is entirely different , then 40 or 60 years ago or before the foundation of the state. The U.K. Will have unfettered access to huge developing foreign food supplies that were not there previously , such access will be available to the uk without the overarching restrictions of EU trade agreements.

Personally i think however that the UK will be like the Chanel Islands, within the customs union but not in the EU

Brexit consequences for Irish farmers

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