Brexit consequences for Irish farmers

I said

Well will it be a disaster or opportunity for us?

tanko

It's highly unlikely to happen I'd imagine.

ganmo

It's going to be an almighty pain if they leave.
The polls are saying its 50/50 atm

tractorporn

tanko wrote:

It's highly unlikely to happen I'd imagine.

Having lived in England I disagree. The ordinary English man feels that "Europe" is taking money out of their pocket. It's only the farming community and business exporting that want them to stay in.

catbear

regardless of if they're in or out they still have to eat or will they simply eat less?

Count Mondego

It would be impossible to tell until it happens. If they did leave it doesn't necessarily mean that tariffs would be imposed on Irish beef exports. We are one of the biggest importers of English exports in the world so it would work both ways.

blue5000

I'd say anyone farming in the border area could have a lucrative alternative enterprise.

It will be bad for beef, I reckon if they leave they'll be buying it in as cheap as possible from S. America. Uk farmers can kiss SFP goodbye.

It could be good for fresh produce, eg milk.

Nekarsulm

Was listening to , I think, Donnaldson on RTE last week about this. His take on it was, there has never been a year yet where the UK actually received more from Europe than they contributed. He claimed that the UK government could pay farm supports at the same level and save money overall. Of course it's easy to promise, but Governments are well known for going back on promises....

Count Mondego

Nekarsulm wrote: »

Was listening to , I think, Donnaldson on RTE last week about this. His take on it was, there has never been a year yet where the UK actually received more from Europe than they contributed. He claimed that the UK government could pay farm supports at the same level and save money overall. Of course it's easy to promise, but Governments are well known for going back on promises....

Since the rationing in the second world war, the priority of every government has been to provide cheap food, at the detriment of the UK farmer. Don't know how well they'd be looked after.

Nekarsulm

Count Mondego wrote: »

Don't know how well they'd be looked after.

I know Labour and Corbyn are practically unelectable, but I wouldn't like to be a UK farmer if Kerry McCarthy was Minister of Ag. !

topmanamillion

Not a fear would Britain impose tariffs on us. They know well where there bread is buttered.
It's a much larger issue than jus farming.
Theres 20k NHS vacancies and we have degree level nurse streaming out of our 3rd level institutions July.
Theres the fact it would go against the good Friday agreement to block any free movement with the North.
It wouldn't make any sense to rock the boat for Britain or us. I would say Kenny (most likely Taoiseach in the summer) would have a trip to Downing Street and a pretty handy trade deal to sign.

kowtow

I think it is fair to say that Boris' decision to come out for a "Brexit" vote is a game changer.

Interestingly he's gone straight to the unease at the heart of all this, which is sovereignty. I suspect that the scripted drama in Brussels over the past few weeks has left many in the UK feeling that Cameron is little more than a technocrat - albeit a sensible, patriotic, one - who defines sovereignty as a fluid concept, as "the ability to get things done" - whereas in reality it is not a matter of opinion or degree actually something more important. The Sovereignty of Parliament ought properly - I think - to be a matter for the heart as much as the head. Short term considerations and gain need to be put aside, Delegata potestas non potest delegari.

There is a trite - but informative - comparison here between Chamberlain & Churchill in the late thirties - Like Cameron, Chamberlain focussed on practicality, risk, and short term advantage. He sought, and got, a political accommodation. Churchill refused to turn a diplomatic blind eye to the realities in Europe, and spoke from the heart. As it happens, the British people felt precisely the same way despite the military, financial, and political risk and the rest is history.

The problem with Europe is that to work properly it requires the people of Europe to be Citizens not of their own countries, but of a greater Europe. It is a Federal project - and you can't dress it up as something else by expunging the sovereign powers of member states and referring to them as "competences". You cannot share sovereignty, or at least - as Ireland & Greece have found out to their cost - you can't share it when it matters, and that is what actually counts.

If I am correct - and these points are articulated in the campaign with Boris, Gove & Co in the forefront, this will be a very close race.

Consequences for Ireland and it's farmers - very few. Irish citizens have always had identical rights in the UK to UK citizens, since long before the EU was dreamt of. We are huge trading partners, have always been, and will continue to be. Attempts by Irish political leaders to talk up Brexit look like the kid at the back of the class trying to get noticed.

Who knows, in the short term Europe might be extra generous in case we get any ideas.

In the long term, whatever the outcome of Brexit, the EU may be seriously damaged unless the Euro Core integrate fast. This is where the serious choices for Ireland will begin.

Nekarsulm

Cameron had promised the people a vote on Europe, and so is fulfilling his promise. The "vote" hovering in the background probably was useful in Cameron's summit last week, and now that he has got some accomodation on some of his bugbears, that stick to wave is not really needed. However the voting public may still give him a scare, come June. One sure thing, from the Daily Mail to the Sport, the anti EU papers will whip themsrlves into a fury of righteous indignation!

catbear

I don't think Cameron has anything but assurances that things he's concerned about will be discussed at future EU summits. That's nothing solid.

All he's done is attack the EU status quo which actually favours the UK greatly as it stands.

ganmo

kowtow wrote: »

Consequences for Ireland and it's farmers - very few. Irish citizens have always had identical rights in the UK to UK citizens, since long before the EU was dreamt of. We are huge trading partners, have always been, and will continue to be. Attempts by Irish political leaders to talk up Brexit look like the kid at the back of the class trying to get noticed.

Who knows, in the short term Europe might be extra generous in case we get any ideas.

In the long term, whatever the outcome of Brexit, the EU may be seriously damaged unless the Euro Core integrate fast. This is where the serious choices for Ireland will begin.

there is a train of thought that if the uk exit the eu Ireland could benefit considerably by being the only english speaking country in the Eu. If we maintain our 'open' trade with the UK and stay within the EU it could possibly be Win Win.

ganmo

hahaha

patsy_mccabe

If they leave, Slab Murphy could open up his own consultancy.:rolleyes:

MickeyShtyles

Was at an Ag society dinner in UK over the weekend. From the big lads farming a few thousand acres to the dairy managers and contractors, there all fairly worried over it. Thought it'd be the other way round....

_Brian

Being selfish about it I think British farmers will lose SFP, this will in time lead to an increase in cattle prices in the uk. Hopefully this would drive more northern dealers into the south to lift prices.
I'm sure farmers in the uk are very worried. Even if they introduce a locally funded direct payment it could be slashed with a change of government.

I think the notion of restored sovereignty will be very popular with the general British public and it may overshadow the practical decisions needed.

I was reading an article last night that said the Italians are watching this tightly as the next EU nation to consider an exit. This could actually be the beginning of the unraveling of the EU and I think if the British leave more countries are sure to follow.

tractorporn

_Brian wrote:

Being selfish about it I think British farmers will lose SFP, this will in time lead to an increase in cattle prices in the uk. Hopefully this would drive more northern dealers into the south to lift prices.

Do you think that the loss in SFP will lead to a drop in beef numbers over there or how do you think the price will rise?

_Brian

tractorporn wrote: »

Do you think that the loss in SFP will lead to a drop in beef numbers over there or how do you think the price will rise?

I think a drop in numbers is possible.
There's no doubting the SFP has driven down cattle prices as a means of providing affordable food for the masses. I think that without the SFP the price will make its way to a level that sustainable for farmers. This will surely cause upward pressure on prices. It wouldn't be an easy journey and an amount of the market will be filled with cheap imports, hopefully some of which we can supply.

catbear

Isn't the GBP strong because the UK is in the EU?

I've seen more estimates of the pounds purchasing power being reduced between 20-30% so exporters would lose lose UK demand. It may not be the UKs freedom to trade outside the EU like with argentina that would be the problem but generally the UKs inability to consume like before.

So we lose the UK, then there's the rising middle class of China who are cultivating a taste for the quality produce from around the world, even KFC use the positive food quality perception of Ireland.

blue5000

kowtow wrote: »

I think it is fair to say that Boris' decision to come out for a "Brexit" vote is a game changer.

Interestingly he's gone straight to the unease at the heart of all this, which is sovereignty. I suspect that the scripted drama in Brussels over the past few weeks has left many in the UK feeling that Cameron is little more than a technocrat - albeit a sensible, patriotic, one - who defines sovereignty as a fluid concept, as "the ability to get things done" - whereas in reality it is not a matter of opinion or degree actually something more important. The Sovereignty of Parliament ought properly - I think - to be a matter for the heart as much as the head. Short term considerations and gain need to be put aside, Delegata potestas non potest delegari.

There is a trite - but informative - comparison here between Chamberlain & Churchill in the late thirties - Like Cameron, Chamberlain focussed on practicality, risk, and short term advantage. He sought, and got, a political accommodation. Churchill refused to turn a diplomatic blind eye to the realities in Europe, and spoke from the heart. As it happens, the British people felt precisely the same way despite the military, financial, and political risk and the rest is history.

The problem with Europe is that to work properly it requires the people of Europe to be Citizens not of their own countries, but of a greater Europe. It is a Federal project - and you can't dress it up as something else by expunging the sovereign powers of member states and referring to them as "competences". You cannot share sovereignty, or at least - as Ireland & Greece have found out to their cost - you can't share it when it matters, and that is what actually counts.

If I am correct - and these points are articulated in the campaign with Boris, Gove & Co in the forefront, this will be a very close race.

Consequences for Ireland and it's farmers - very few. Irish citizens have always had identical rights in the UK to UK citizens, since long before the EU was dreamt of. We are huge trading partners, have always been, and will continue to be. Attempts by Irish political leaders to talk up Brexit look like the kid at the back of the class trying to get noticed.

Who knows, in the short term Europe might be extra generous in case we get any ideas.

In the long term, whatever the outcome of Brexit, the EU may be seriously damaged unless the Euro Core integrate fast. This is where the serious choices for Ireland will begin.

Well said kowtow.
I wonder is there still a lot of anti-german feeling in GB, seems like Greece has it anyway. A feeling of 'we won the war but now we are losing an economic war'.

catbear

blue5000 wrote: »

Well said kowtow.
I wonder is there still a lot of anti-german feeling in GB.

No, they absolutely fawn over their royals.

Alibaba

I wonder could this hit cattle prices here if Britain decides to leave.

I'd be a bit worried buying dear cattle at the moment with Brexit hanging over us.

BoatMad

Consequences for Ireland and it's farmers - very few. Irish citizens have always had identical rights in the UK to UK citizens, since long before the EU was dreamt of. We are huge trading partners, have always been, and will continue to be. Attempts by Irish political leaders to talk up Brexit look like the kid at the back of the class trying to get noticed.

The difference is Ireland cannot negotiate trade agreements with a non EU country outside the general Control of overarching eu trade agreements

That has never been the situation before , Ireland and the U.K. were fully sovereign nations and could conclude trade deals . Ireland can no longer do that in the eu

Irish citizens have " rights" in the uk purely as a result of uk laws , those rights can be removed in the morning

To suggest that the consequence of brexit would be small on Ireland is absolutely the most stupid thing to say

kowtow

BoatMad wrote:

The difference is Ireland cannot negotiate trade agreements with a non EU country outside the general Control of overarching eu trade agreements

I think if you look at the original accession documents for the UK and Ireland you will see that there is a specific carve out in respect of the traditional UK + Irish position.

There is no reason whatsover to believe that the UK would wish to remove the long standing entitlements of Irish/ UK households. Have you seen any such suggestion?

BoatMad

kowtow wrote: »

I think if you look at the original accession documents for the UK and Ireland you will see that there is a specific carve out in respect of the traditional UK + Irish position.

There is no reason whatsover to believe that the UK would wish to remove the long standing entitlements of Irish/ UK households. Have you seen any such suggestion?

I say again, there is no guarantee that Ireland would be able to negotiate favourable access to uk markets over and above the overall EU position and we would be subject to a common EU wide agreement

The imposition of vat at the point of import would be a significant cash flow hit for importers here alone , not to mention custom clearances delays

The issue of free movement of people could clearly affect the common travel area and the rights of Irish citizens to move to the uk etc

You simply cannot state that the risks are " few" you have no idea

My view is a uk leaving the EU will have massive and huge effects on Ireland and on the Eu, it will be a seismic effect and the EU will be a lot poorer in many ways as a result. I think it will ultimately leads to its breakup too

Waffletraktor

BoatMad wrote: »

I say again, there is no guarantee that Ireland would be able to negotiate favourable access to uk markets over and above the overall EU position and we would be subject to a common EU wide agreement

The imposition of vat at the point of import would be a significant cash flow hit for importers here alone , not to mention custom clearances delays

The issue of free movement of people could clearly affect the common travel area and the rights of Irish citizens to move to the uk etc

You simply cannot state that the risks are " few" you have no idea

My view is a uk leaving the EU will have massive and huge effects on Ireland and on the Eu, it will be a seismic effect and the EU will be a lot poorer in many ways as a result. I think it will ultimately leads to its breakup too

Yes ireland will, the british consider Ireland as themselves more than any other nation. And ireland is too valuable to change any agreements so long as things like border control are kept to an acceptable standard which shouldnt be too hard unless you go all Sweden. Ireland is no threat really to the Uk and bar a few decades in the early 20th century has been supplying plentiful and affordable food to the Uk, they need each other just as much.

I would say you are right about the Eu, they much like the British over value their new position in the world and has become a runaway train. Is the Netherlands and Italy not meant to be seriously considering such actions aswel?!

Alibaba

BoatMad wrote: »

I say again, there is no guarantee that Ireland would be able to negotiate favourable access to uk markets over and above the overall EU position and we would be subject to a common EU wide agreement

The imposition of vat at the point of import would be a significant cash flow hit for importers here alone , not to mention custom clearances delays

The issue of free movement of people could clearly affect the common travel area and the rights of Irish citizens to move to the uk etc

You simply cannot state that the risks are " few" you have no idea

My view is a uk leaving the EU will have massive and huge effects on Ireland and on the Eu, it will be a seismic effect and the EU will be a lot poorer in many ways as a result. I think it will ultimately leads to its breakup too

+1 Huge implications for this country and all of Europe as well.

BoatMad

Waffletraktor wrote: »

Yes ireland will, the british consider Ireland as themselves more than any other nation. And ireland is too valuable to change any agreements so long as things like border control are kept to an acceptable standard which shouldnt be too hard unless you go all Sweden. Ireland is no threat really to the Uk and bar a few decades in the early 20th century has been supplying plentiful and affordable food to the Uk, they need each other just as much.

I would say you are right about the Eu, they much like the British over value their new position in the world and has become a runaway train. Is the Netherlands and Italy not meant to be seriously considering such actions aswel?!

Again, Ireland has no guarantee that it can negioate trade agreements that are more beneficial to it , over any other EU country . Therefor unless Ireland can get majority agreement around the EU , it will be stuck with the provisions of a EU trade agreement.

The situation regarding Ireland and uk food supply is entirely different , then 40 or 60 years ago or before the foundation of the state. The U.K. Will have unfettered access to huge developing foreign food supplies that were not there previously , such access will be available to the uk without the overarching restrictions of EU trade agreements.


Personally i think however that the UK will be like the Chanel Islands, within the customs union but not in the EU

waalaa

The UK will vote to remain and I don't think it will be that close. Brexit campaigners are extremely vocal and anybody (other than the remain campaigners) planning to vote to remain might be seen as anti British so just stays quiet. It's almost exactly like the Scottish referendum polls had it neck and neck with the SNP convinced they had it won and in the end it was a pretty clear stay. 58% remain 42% leave, that's what I reckon.

kowtow

BoatMad wrote:

You simply cannot state that the risks are " few" you have no idea

BoatMad wrote:

My view is a uk leaving the EU will have massive and huge effects on Ireland and on the Eu, it will be a seismic effect and the EU will be a lot poorer in many ways as a result. I think it will ultimately leads to its breakup too

Of course I can state that in my reasonably informed opinion the risks are few - certainly fewer than the scaremongering irish establishment would have us believe.

As i said above the EU accession documents give special recognition to the uk / irish arrangements but even leaving those aside politically and pragmatically I doubt that the eu would wish to frustrate future free trade arrangements between the two countries for fear of igniting the Irish electorate.

I doubt there will be a Brexit but I agree with you that if it happens or runs close it will shake the eu institutions to the core. In my view that would be a good thing.

There's also a small oppurtunity for Ireland - if as Mario Monti says a post Brexit eu could adopt English as a single language without seeming to prefer the UK, then there's a dividend in it for the Irish.

Willfarman

If the unthinkable happened and brexit happened would it be economically advantageous for us to follow suit?

The return of the punt? What about our fishing rights?

BoatMad

kowtow wrote: »

Of course I can state that in my reasonably informed opinion the risks are few - certainly fewer than the scaremongering irish establishment would have us believe.

As i said above the EU accession documents give special recognition to the uk / irish arrangements but even leaving those aside politically and pragmatically I doubt that the eu would wish to frustrate future free trade arrangements between the two countries for fear of igniting the Irish electorate.

I doubt there will be a Brexit but I agree with you that if it happens or runs close it will shake the eu institutions to the core. In my view that would be a good thing.

There's also a small oppurtunity for Ireland - if as Mario Monti says a post Brexit eu could adopt English as a single language without seeming to prefer the UK, then there's a dividend in it for the Irish.

A lot will boil down to the EU attitude to the uk , will it seek to punish the uk, it's unlikely that it seek to reward it with beneficial trade access but not with the costs and responsibilities of the Union.

As to inflaming the Irish electorate , I think we have ample evidence in Ireland and Greece , that the EU institutions don't give a monkeys for the " Irish electorate "

This will all be driven by France's and Germany's perspective and not ours.

We shall see if we fair any better under Franco German rule for the next 120 years compare to the 120 since 1800 under the uk !!! . I suspect the outcomes will be similar

BoatMad

Willfarman wrote: »

If the unthinkable happened and brexit happened would it be economically advantageous for us to follow suit?

The return of the punt? What about our fishing rights?

Ireland cannot and would not survive outside the Eurozone

kowtow

Willfarman wrote:

If the unthinkable happened and brexit happened would it be economically advantageous for us to follow suit?

Willfarman wrote:

The return of the punt? What about our fishing rights?

It wouldnt suit our political elite.

What are they supposed to do? Fly round and round the hook all day in the Government jet?

It would be bad news for Europe too. Without Enda there would be no one to hand out the canapés in Brussels.

kowtow

BoatMad wrote:

We shall see if we fair any better under Franco German rule for the next 120 years compare to the 120 since 1800 under the uk !!! . I suspect the outcomes will be similar

As you say, we shall see.

Although under British rule Dublin had a lot more power than it has today.

Willfarman

BoatMad wrote: »

Ireland cannot and would not survive outside the Eurozone

Oxygen deprivation? Would we sink into the sea?

BoatMad

Willfarman wrote: »

Oxygen deprivation? Would we sink into the sea?

No, silly ,
The country would trip to the west and slide into Atlantic as all the businesses and people left the east coast and emigrated

catbear

kowtow wrote: »

As you say, we shall see.

Although under British rule Dublin had a lot more power than it has today.

Under the act of union power left Dublin entirely. That's why Dublin architecture fossilised after the Georgian era.

Waffletraktor

Taking odds on collapse of Tory Govt due to infighting over Hi - Low allignement with Eu, slim majority as is and resignations from the losing side. Labour Govt goes for soft brexit if at all. Possible re run.

Nekarsulm

Interesting reading the Farmers Weekly opinion pieces/articles.
In the run up to the vote, almost every piece published was pro-Brexit. Everyone interviewed (or at least, everyone published) was voting leave, from County Council small holders to arable farmers with thousands of acres.
This last few weeks a very different type of article is emerging.

kowtow

Waffletraktor wrote:

Taking odds on collapse of Tory Govt due to infighting over Hi - Low allignement with Eu, slim majority as is and resignations from the losing side. Labour Govt goes for soft brexit if at all. Possible re run.

I'm convinced this morning that the Tories are in strong position for a change.

They seem to have an equal number of rebels on each side.

ganmo

Waffletraktor wrote: »

Taking odds on collapse of Tory Govt due to infighting over Hi - Low allignement with Eu, slim majority as is and resignations from the losing side. Labour Govt goes for soft brexit if at all. Possible re run.

I'm taking odds of no deal being done
And then a border poll in NI within 5 years

Willfarman

The dup got their payoff after the general election. They are just playing charades. The only deal is the logical one. A watery border around mainland Britain. And the end of free movement from ourselves and France without a show of a passport or national Id card.

Keepgrowing

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-food-security/?fbclid=IwAR1xaExSsiFBrWq1yFQgpTMJHXjVw_LqP-y8wqrp7gwy590nY38eBUVsMJ4

Chisler2

Willfarman wrote: »

The dup got their payoff after the general election. They are just playing charades. The only deal is the logical one. A watery border around mainland Britain. And the end of free movement from ourselves and France without a show of a passport or national Id card.

When you write "an end of free movement" do you mean reinstatement of the same criteria for movement of goods and people as apply to ANY sovereign state outside the EU? The stumbling-block to Brexit is NOT (emphatically NOT!) the responsibility, or created by, Ireland. The general referendum produced a "leave" majority. The UK is "leaving" the EU. Negotiations are with the 27 unified block of remaining EU members.............NOT with Ireland.



They are leaving because they want "control of their borders". They forgot - during the referendum frenzy - that one of their borders is a land-border with the Republic of Ireland, that is, a land-border with the EU. It is crucial not to feed UK paranoia by distinguishing individual EU members (France and Ireland) as persecutors.



Teresa May has been touring the continent trying to foment division between the 27 remaining EU countries. The Conservative Party have confidently assumed for the past 18 months that they could eventually break EU solidarity and "have their cake and eat it"......keep the benefits of membership whilst refusing to pay towards the EU project. They are playing a deadly game and their hubris is creating political and economic instability across Europe.



It is time to recall WHY the EU was initially formed.............to provide a platform for co-operation to replace the bloody conflicts of the two great European wars. That objective is of even more importance now as America and China gear steadily towards major confrontation.

Chisler2

BoatMad wrote: »

(snip)
The U.K. Will have unfettered access to huge developing foreign food supplies that were not there previously , such access will be available to the uk without the overarching restrictions of EU trade agreements. (snip)


The UK electorate now whine they "did not have the facts" before the majority of voters chose "leave". Hopefully they have learned by that mistake to "read the label". If one of their alternative food suppliers is the USA they should prepare for hormone-laced meats, chicken washed in chlorine, processed foods full of high-fructose corn syrup and genetically-modified vegetables and fruit...........all produced under sub-human pay and conditions for employees and inhumane conditions for the hogs, fowl, and beef in massive silo-sites.



As to other sources of food-supply..........it is unlikely the UK's former colonies (Africa and India in particular) will feel kindly disposed to give any advantage to their former coloniser and in any event, there are perils and high economic costs to transporting perishables long distances.

blue5000

If UK starts importing cheaper food from the rest of the world, there is a danger of our markets on mainland Europe not taking our produce due to 'contamination' fears of food smuggled here from UK.

Bullocks

blue5000 wrote: »

If UK starts importing cheaper food from the rest of the world, there is a danger of our markets on mainland Europe not taking our produce due to 'contamination' fears of food smuggled here from UK.

Bord bia will have to work hard on showing our traceability. They will have to keep as good an eye on the factories as us farmers records