Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Blizzard 2010 · 03-07-2012 5:18pm

I suppose if we were having a cracker of a summer we wouldnt be thinking of winter. cold and snowy for this year is my hope:D

mcriot29 · 03-07-2012 7:10pm

Joe B's winter thoughts are based on what he's been saying for years about the coming winter powered by a cold PDO El Nino http://bit.ly/LzC2Vt This coming winter it is 66 years since 1947 was also during solar max which we now approach.

ZX7R · 03-07-2012 7:10pm

Lucreto wrote: »

I love the cold frosty morning air. It wakes me up at I am going to work. I enjoy walking in winter, I can walked miles like during November/December 2010 just to look at the snow and how it changed the landscape.

Did anyone else notice all the yellowing leaves on the ground already from certain trees?

Yes a lot of leaves are all ready falling probably down to lack of sun shine also due to the wind burning the leaves,i think we will have an early autumn this year:)

ZX7R · 03-07-2012 7:17pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

Joe B's winter thoughts are based on what he's been saying for years about the coming winter powered by a cold PDO El Nino http://bit.ly/LzC2Vt This coming winter it is 66 years since 1947 was also during solar max which we now approach.

He is deffently sticking to his guns about this winter,a lot of other forcasters have started to follow suit and they use other methods to forcast so that is a good sing in its self ,could do with a good hard cold winter again.

mcriot29 · 03-07-2012 7:38pm

ZX7R wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Joe B's winter thoughts are based on what he's been saying for years about the coming winter powered by a cold PDO El Nino http://bit.ly/LzC2Vt This coming winter it is 66 years since 1947 was also during solar max which we now approach.

He is deffently sticking to his guns about this winter,a lot of other forcasters have started to follow suit and they use other methods to forcast so that is a good sing in its self ,could do with a good hard cold winter again.

Who else has said about the winter i have only seen joe bs views , vogan and piers has not said yet madman has said very cold bla bla he says that every winter

ZX7R · 03-07-2012 8:05pm

Quite a few of the american weather sights have started to realise there preliminary weather forcasts for us and europe most look cold , i used u.s goggle you will find more of them

Aglomerado · 04-07-2012 3:12pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Looking out the kitchen window and the only difference between now and last winter, is the leaves on the trees ,lets hope this winter is cold ,frosty and snowy thats the best weather for walking

I agree, I love walking in the woods in the frost and snow, with good hiking boots on and all wrapped up.

mcriot29 · 05-07-2012 1:42pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Quite a few of the american weather sights have started to realise there preliminary weather forcasts for us and europe most look cold , i used u.s goggle you will find more of them

Some in us say west europe will see a set up like 2010 this year for the winter , if this happens it could mean a better winter then 2010 as it may last longer , also winter could be here by nov
Weather action are predicting a very cold winter on the way with little ice age type events , this summer is very like summers of 1700s there was a lot of crop probs there i see on news farmers are havin a bad time this year , all this points to a mini ice age now .
Last summer i told my family i felt a mild winter was on way but 2012 winter will be a very cold one , reason was going by a repeat in weather of mini ice age , i feel either this winter or next will be worse then 47 and 63 and longer
In mini ice age there was winters where snow started in oct and went on till april , thats not with a volcano going off there where even worse snow in july and aug etc
A lot of people seem to think this winter will be mild met uk for one , if this weather we have now had of come in nov we would be in for it all the east winds etc and jet south of us

ZX7R · 05-07-2012 5:55pm

A lot of thoes sites pirdected our winter last year spot on ,lets hope they get this year goes as good as there pridections for this year.As far as what the uk are saying i would take with a pinch of salt as i think they dont do an offical long range winter forcast anymore as they got it rong so many times in the past.As for a mini ice age i will need to do more reading up on it ,i have read some articles about it by a russian scientist khabibullo abdusamatov they were very intresting.

mcriot29 · 05-07-2012 6:24pm

ZX7R wrote: »

A lot of thoes sites pirdected our winter last year spot on ,lets hope they get this year goes as good as there pridections for this year.As far as what the uk are saying i would take with a pinch of salt as i think they dont do an offical long range winter forcast anymore as they got it rong so many times in the past.As for a mini ice age i will need to do more reading up on it ,i have read some articles about it by a russian scientist khabibullo abdusamatov they were very intresting.

Weather action have a new page out today they say little ice age type weather this month, if this keeps up id say we have a good chance of getting some action

Musicman2000 · 05-07-2012 6:25pm

If we had the setup we have now, back in winter we would be buried in snow, but I'm sure the azores high will be right back with us come November.

mcriot29 · 05-07-2012 7:09pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

If we had the setup we have now, back in winter we would be buried in snow, but I'm sure the azores high will be right back with us come November.

Yeah lots of snow , and hopefully it wont come back

goat2 · 05-07-2012 10:17pm

someone told me today, that we are going to have a very bad september, can weather be predicted that far ahead

mcriot29 · 05-07-2012 10:19pm

goat2 wrote: »

someone told me today, that we are going to have a very bad september, can weather be predicted that far ahead

Bad as in rain was it lol we cant get any worse then may and june both cold and wet

Iceball · 06-07-2012 1:45am

mcriot29 wrote: »

Weather action have a new page out today they say little ice age type weather this month, if this keeps up id say we have a good chance of getting some action

That thing weather action is talking about is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). Its the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores. When its negative it tends to put a north or east influnce on the weather in ireland and uk, when its possitive it tends to put a west or southwest influnce on the weather. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datgeneral.aspx?type=nao
Check out http://www.facebook.com/raysweather.pageireland .
Hes great at listing all this and is usually bang on with winter weather and if he dosnt know somthing no one will but hes not afraid to admit it !
He recently explained the the last negative phase was a record 14 months long' beating the old record of 9 months by 5 months. The phase lasted from sept 09 to jan 11 when the freezes ended and is easy see what he means. Heres an extract from his page which he posted earlier in the week. He also do have a solar expert come on to his page from time to time with some very valuable information.

***WINTER ***
Note
NAO= North Atlantic Oscillation
AO= Arctic Oscilation

Ye all may remember how I said last Winter it is a \/ery difficult one to forecast unlike the pre\/ious two and I wouldnt budge futher out than two weeks but just ga\/e percentages. Well this year seems to be shaping up a little different and a repeat pattern of Winter 2009/2010 is a \/ery big possibility. Its early days yet but just because last Winter was mild don't let up your guard and you may all remember where I warned about this last Winter " Cold Winters come tend to come in clusters with some of the mildest ones mixed in" and "Don't let your guard up if this is a mild Winter' I feel the big one is still yet to come"
I did think if we were going to get a big freeze last Winter it would be later on in Winter and I was right as Europe was plunged into a deep freeze late in the season. Howe\/er due to a \/ery positi\/e NAO the cold did not penetrate to this side of the Irish Sea.
The NAO has flipped negati\/e now for the last se\/eral weeks and as I said many times on the page if this were Winter it would be \/ery cold with hugh snowfalls.
So let take this into mind. The last negati\/e NAO lasted a record 14 months from around Sept 2009 - Jan 2011. The pre\/ious record was 9 months standing since records began around 100 years ago. So with us into the 2nd month of a \/ery negati\/e NAO will it last another 4 r 5 months to take us into the Winter months ? and if it do there is a 1 in 2 chance the AO will flip to meet it or will the NAO last e\/en longer to meet a negati\/e AO later on in Winter ?
There ye go people put that into perspecti\/e and its not so hard to see where I'm comming from howe\/er this is not a Winter forecast but some early Winter thoughts and for now I'm going for cold - se\/ere cold , maybe e\/en \/ery se\/ere cold !!

2 July at 09:23
By the way is anyone here suscribed to weatherbell ( the site at which joe bastardi works ) ??

mcriot29 · 06-07-2012 5:14pm

Iceball wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Weather action have a new page out today they say little ice age type weather this month, if this keeps up id say we have a good chance of getting some action

That thing weather action is talking about is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). Its the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores. When its negative it tends to put a north or east influnce on the weather in ireland and uk, when its possitive it tends to put a west or southwest influnce on the weather. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datgeneral.aspx?type=nao
Check out http://www.facebook.com/raysweather.pageireland .
Hes great at listing all this and is usually bang on with winter weather and if he dosnt know somthing no one will but hes not afraid to admit it !
He recently explained the the last negative phase was a record 14 months long' beating the old record of 9 months by 5 months. The phase lasted from sept 09 to jan 11 when the freezes ended and is easy see what he means. Heres an extract from his page which he posted earlier in the week. He also do have a solar expert come on to his page from time to time with some very valuable information.

***WINTER ***
Note
NAO= North Atlantic Oscillation
AO= Arctic Oscilation

Ye all may remember how I said last Winter it is a \/ery difficult one to forecast unlike the pre\/ious two and I wouldnt budge futher out than two weeks but just ga\/e percentages. Well this year seems to be shaping up a little different and a repeat pattern of Winter 2009/2010 is a \/ery big possibility. Its early days yet but just because last Winter was mild don't let up your guard and you may all remember where I warned about this last Winter " Cold Winters come tend to come in clusters with some of the mildest ones mixed in" and "Don't let your guard up if this is a mild Winter' I feel the big one is still yet to come"
I did think if we were going to get a big freeze last Winter it would be later on in Winter and I was right as Europe was plunged into a deep freeze late in the season. Howe\/er due to a \/ery positi\/e NAO the cold did not penetrate to this side of the Irish Sea.
The NAO has flipped negati\/e now for the last se\/eral weeks and as I said many times on the page if this were Winter it would be \/ery cold with hugh snowfalls.
So let take this into mind. The last negati\/e NAO lasted a record 14 months from around Sept 2009 - Jan 2011. The pre\/ious record was 9 months standing since records began around 100 years ago. So with us into the 2nd month of a \/ery negati\/e NAO will it last another 4 r 5 months to take us into the Winter months ? and if it do there is a 1 in 2 chance the AO will flip to meet it or will the NAO last e\/en longer to meet a negati\/e AO later on in Winter ?
There ye go people put that into perspecti\/e and its not so hard to see where I'm comming from howe\/er this is not a Winter forecast but some early Winter thoughts and for now I'm going for cold - se\/ere cold , maybe e\/en \/ery se\/ere cold !!

2 July at 09:23
By the way is anyone here suscribed to weatherbell ( the site at which joe bastardi works ) ??

This book looks good for anyone into mini ice age
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53913.The_Little_Ice_Age
On ebay for 10e

Iceball · 06-07-2012 9:28pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

This book looks good for anyone into mini ice age
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53913.The_Little_Ice_Age
On ebay for 10e

Orderd :P:P

mcriot29 · 08-07-2012 2:52pm

Iceball wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

This book looks good for anyone into mini ice age
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53913.The_Little_Ice_Age
On ebay for 10e

Orderd :P:P

Seems this is a year with no summer uk are saying worst on record
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2012/07/07/chaos-in-skies-over-britain-forecasters-describe-horrific-summer-as-the-worst-since-records-began/
Could winter be bad lets hope so

mcriot29 · 08-07-2012 3:39pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

Iceball wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

This book looks good for anyone into mini ice age
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53913.The_Little_Ice_Age
On ebay for 10e

Orderd :P:P

Seems this is a year with no summer uk are saying worst on record
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2012/07/07/chaos-in-skies-over-britain-forecasters-describe-horrific-summer-as-the-worst-since-records-began/
Could winter be bad lets hope so

Heres a great site shows all info on summers winter trough mini ice ages , notice most wet cold summers had very cold winters
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1700_1749.htm
At end pf page you can jump to next 50 years up to 1949

Sponge Bob · 08-07-2012 6:52pm

I think this winter will be pretty average...just like last winter. So unless we are in a freak deep freeze by October I will probably vote that way in the inevitable Winter Forecast comp.

mcriot29 · 10-07-2012 4:22pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I think this winter will be pretty average...just like last winter. So unless we are in a freak deep freeze by October I will probably vote that way in the inevitable Winter Forecast comp.

Why do you think this , any reasons or just a gut feeling

Sponge Bob · 10-07-2012 4:55pm

I simply cannot envision a whole year of unusually high pressure like we had so far...sooner or later the Atlantic lows will pile in and that means mild.

chrisjdoran · 10-07-2012 4:59pm

The solar activity is about to ramp up, i'm sure this will throw a few loops here and there for forecasters, I feel it will be a wet winter, weather it's cold enough for snow is the real question.. i hope so.

chrisjdoran · 10-07-2012 5:10pm

Not sure what to think is going to happen when things get cold this year, bring it on!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQS07h4qWKA&feature=plcp

mcriot29 · 10-07-2012 5:20pm

chrisjdoran wrote: »

The solar activity is about to ramp up, i'm sure this will throw a few loops here and there for forecasters, I feel it will be a wet winter, weather it's cold enough for snow is the real question.. i hope so.

Hey i dont think it will ramp up much there telling us that for past year and its still low

desolate sun · 10-07-2012 6:05pm

Please let it be a wonderfully white snowfest this winter.

Last winter was the worst I have ever witnessed.
In all my years alive, every winter there is some kind of snow, even it's the gone-by-lunchtime type. But last winter, I didn't see one flake of snow. :eek:

So this year I am holding out for the good stuff.

Sponge Bob · 10-07-2012 6:32pm

I do hope we get one 'gone by lunchtime' snowfall this coming winter...which would be average for where I live. I hope to see nothing more than that this winter.

I thoroughly enjoyed the record temperature last christmas day.

wing52 · 10-07-2012 6:56pm

Meteo france's Yan Giezendanner has forecast an early start to the winter in the alps!

He says there will be snowfall down to 2000 metres by the end of september.

That's -8 850's:eek::eek::eek:

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 10-07-2012 8:31pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I do hope we get one 'gone by lunchtime' snowfall this coming winter...which would be average for where I live. I hope to see nothing more than that this winter.

I thoroughly enjoyed the record temperature last christmas day.

Oh im determined you won't get your way this year

:pac:

Redsunset · 10-07-2012 8:42pm

mcriot29 · 10-07-2012 9:44pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I do hope we get one 'gone by lunchtime' snowfall this coming winter...which would be average for where I live. I hope to see nothing more than that this winter.

I thoroughly enjoyed the record temperature last christmas day.

Oh im determined you won't get your way this year :pac:

My prediction is -25 10 foot of snow for xmas day 

Su Campu · 10-07-2012 10:55pm

wing52 wrote: »

Meteo france's Yan Giezendanner has forecast an early start to the winter in the alps!

He says there will be snowfall down to 2000 metres by the end of september.

That's -8 850's:eek::eek::eek:

No it's nowhere near as low as -8, that would be for snow down to a couple of hundred metres. For snow down to 2000 m in the Alps even +5 would be cold enough.

davidsr20 · 11-07-2012 12:37am

I can't wait for winter I hate summer, yes I like a sun holiday but I hate this mild sticky warm weather.
Roll on winter and I'd love -10 for a few months

Lucreto · 11-07-2012 1:04am

davidsr20 wrote: »

I can't wait for winter I hate summer, yes I like a sun holiday but I hate this mild sticky warm weather.
Roll on winter and I'd love -10 for a few months

I am the same. I work better in the cold.

Saying that this summer is not too bad for the cold lovers. Not much suffering on my end. I know a few people who consider this payback for a warm winter.

I would suffer hot temperatures during the summer if I knew we would get a cold winter.

pistolpetes11 · 11-07-2012 2:02am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I simply cannot envision a whole year of unusually high pressure like we had so far...sooner or later the Atlantic lows will pile in and that means mild.

Have we had a year of unusually high pressure ?

Cant really recall many spells of high pressure this year at all , mother nature has been riding her low horse a awful lot this year it seems to me.

Have the Atlantic lows not been piling in most of the year ?

Redsunset · 11-07-2012 2:26am

I'd say he's talking about the Greenland blocking highs of late. We're stuck in a trough because of it. Looks like a change coming soon as global pattern shifts. However looks more zonal than ridging. Still it gives a better change of some Azores ridging to have a say because as things stand It has none.

Nabber · 11-07-2012 8:07am

Didn't the Azores high set its up over Oreland quite a few times over the winter? Christmas being an example.

ZX7R · 11-07-2012 9:14am

Nabber wrote: »

Didn't the Azores high set its up over Oreland quite a few times over the winter? Christmas being an example.

Yes it had a large influence on our last winter ,that was why it was so mild,azores high in winter is not good for cold lovers and snow bunnies:(

chrisjdoran · 11-07-2012 9:33am

mcriot29 wrote: »

Hey i dont think it will ramp up much there telling us that for past year and its still low

I know NASA revised it's solar cycle max from 2011 to 2013, the first deviation in 300 years of solar obs'.. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/SolarMax.pdf

davidsr20 · 11-07-2012 8:24pm

chrisjdoran wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Hey i dont think it will ramp up much there telling us that for past year and its still low

I know NASA revised it's solar cycle max from 2011 to 2013, the first deviation in 300 years of solar obs'.. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/SolarMax.pdf

In English ?

touts · 13-07-2012 11:01am

I don't care if is snows or not. I just can't wait for winter so it stops raining all the time. I'm sick of this bloody summer.

Musicman2000 · 13-07-2012 2:44pm

I remember all the posts saying bring on the summer, where are all these posters now:)

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 13-07-2012 3:39pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

I remember all the posts saying bring on the summer, where are all these posters now:)

Crying

:pac:

Harps · 13-07-2012 3:46pm

The summer isn't that bad, I've still been wearing a t-shirt most days and we've had plenty of spells of pleasant dry and warm weather between the rainy days. Having 20 hours of brightness is great as well compared to the depressing darkness in winter. Winter is nice on the rare occasions we get some interesting weather but I don't quite see the attraction of 7C, cloudy and dark as most winter days will invariably be

morticia2 · 13-07-2012 3:49pm

Just watching programme on Discovery about historic climate change. Apparently the mini ice age in Europe was preceded by a run of really wet summers. Anyone else see parallels??

gbee · 13-07-2012 5:37pm

morticia2 wrote: »

Just watching programme on Discovery about historic climate change. Apparently the mini ice age in Europe was preceded by a run of really wet summers. Anyone else see parallels??

In this forum there is also a thread something like The Sun is Dead, Mini Ice age , it might be worth looking it up too, we are in a mini ice age period already.

morticia2 · 14-07-2012 9:34am

gbee wrote: »

In this forum there is also a thread something like The Sun is Dead, Mini Ice age , it might be worth looking it up too, we are in a mini ice age period already.

Well aware of it thanks, perhaps I should put that comment on there. Not sure it mentions the run of wet summers preceding the mini ice age, though. I wonder if there's any data on winters 1315-25, also. Might give us a clue as to what might be coming up

mcriot29 · 20-07-2012 7:32pm

morticia2 wrote: »

gbee wrote: »

In this forum there is also a thread something like The Sun is Dead, Mini Ice age , it might be worth looking it up too, we are in a mini ice age period already.

Well aware of it thanks, perhaps I should put that comment on there. Not sure it mentions the run of wet summers preceding the mini ice age, though. I wonder if there's any data on winters 1315-25, also. Might give us a clue as to what might be coming up

There was very wet winters in the mini ice age very like what we have being having

Elmer Blooker · 20-07-2012 9:06pm

morticia2 wrote: »

Well aware of it thanks, perhaps I should put that comment on there. Not sure it mentions the run of wet summers preceding the mini ice age, though. I wonder if there's any data on winters 1315-25, also. Might give us a clue as to what might be coming up

They wouldn't have recorded data in those days but extreme weather events would have been documented. This link is as good as you'll get in relation to the fourteenth century.
(note the winter of 1338-9, the only other occasion that the Liffey completely froze was in the winter of 1739-40 as far as I know)
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1300_1399.htm

chrisjdoran · 24-07-2012 12:38am

Just means our sun is experiencing something that has not happened in 300 years of watching it, the 11 year cycle of sunspots/solar activity repeats every 11 years, except we are still approaching a solar maximum that should have happened last year, so expect a few extremes weather wise..

davidsr20 wrote: »

In English ?

Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Comments