Fodder Crisis

kerryjack · 11-01-2018 1:13pm

Silage is a commodity which is bought and sold in the open market, some farmers are buying in all there winter feed because it has been cheap, never a great business plan in my opinion.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 11-01-2018 1:44pm

blackdog1 wrote: »

I'm not getting involved in this argument but I will say this... People forget that you can still suffer drought in the summer and that twice in the last couple of years the spring has been so bad that we're feeding silage into May so it's a very smart thing to have 2-3 months more than you need. I know some lads had a terrible year and couldn't cut enough and I genuinely feel sorry for them and I don't think lads should be charging them 50 a bale.

We had very poor first cut silage yields this year due to drought so when a neighbour asked if I was interested in some of 20 acres of second cut he had, I took it all. I was told by one in my discussion group I was foolish buying as we would have a great backend like last year.

He rang me last week wondering if I knew anybody who had silage for sale:rolleyes:

I think we have to get to the stage where we have a reserve of pit silage of at least 3 or 4 months. My BIL has a years silage reserve at all times. Next winter, he will start on last years silage and this years silage will be his reserve. If he eats into his reserve, he sells cattle until he makes enough silage to replace his reserve. It's not a bad policy to have.

RedPeppers · 11-01-2018 1:55pm

kerryjack wrote: »

Was talking to a lad this morning he was outraged at a lad selling silage at 50 euro a bale, I don't have a problem with it, I think its up to every farmer themselves to make sure they have enough fodder for the winter and if they haven't, off load some stock but no excuse for running out of fooder in January.

Utter madness paying €50 for a bale of silage. Id sell the lot instead. Alot of bales moving round here, didn't hear anyone paying more than €30.

Muckit · 11-01-2018 2:52pm

Well this is the thing. It's only 5years since the last crisis. If this weather pattern is going to be a regular thing, we probably need to be factoring it in rather than firefighting.

Tis hard enough get time to feed them with silage in the yard, than have to go looking for it. Neighbour here fed the last of his own silage bales the first week of December. I just couldn't live like that. The stress wouldn't be worth it.

Dakota Dan · 11-01-2018 3:38pm

RedPeppers wrote: »

Utter madness paying €50 for a bale of silage. Id sell the lot instead. Alot of bales moving round here, didn't hear anyone paying more than €30.

€50 for a lucky bag and transport costs on top. Surely if farmers did a feed budget and knew they didn't have enough fodder they should have stretched their fodder using soya hulls or a combination of alternatives. That would be one way of avoiding €50 lucky bags, even if the alternatives cost the same as the lucky bags at least you'd know what you were feeding and transport wouldn't be as expensive.

davidk1394 · 11-01-2018 4:45pm

€50 is wrong in my opinion. But I don't see why we should leave the prices low. In years of over supply people had to sell excess fodder at a lower price but in a good year like this they can charge the going rate. Farmers seem to begrudge the lads that are making money this year but they didn't mind buying silage last year because it was cheap. I remember seeing people post last spring who were saying it was cheaper to buy silage than to make it. Now their turning around giving out its too expensive.

patsy_mccabe · 11-01-2018 4:52pm

It's one thing for a few local lads to be exchanging bales at €25, some will be short a few one year, some another year. But what about guys that only make silage and keep no stock. Are they not entitled to have a good year like anyone else?

davidk1394 · 11-01-2018 5:02pm

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

It's one thing for a few local lads to be exchanging bales at €25, some will be short a few one year, some another year. But what about guys that only make silage and keep no stock. Are they not entitled to have a good year like anyone else?

Their dead right. Fella here does that. Getting good money this year and has the yards nearly cleared. However I know of another person who sells pit silage. Fills the trailer. Turns on a hose and puts it in the trailer and goes for the dinner, all to make a few extra euros. That kind of thing is totally wrong and I don't know how someone could do it. Unfortunately the Irish are the best and the worst in the world.

mahoney_j · 11-01-2018 5:27pm

All this talk of price per bale etc should be irrelevant .price should be determined by quality namely dmd ,dm crude p content and me value .a 75/80 plus dmd bale at 30% dm is serious rocket fuel ,big difference beteween that and a high 60s low dm bale

Mooooo · 11-01-2018 5:32pm

True, cows eating thru a lot more silage here as dmd is in 60s in the pit here would have been higher other years

Snowfire · 11-01-2018 6:15pm

mahoney_j wrote: »

All this talk of price per bale etc should be irrelevant .price should be determined by quality namely dmd ,dm crude p content and me value .a 75/80 plus dmd bale at 30% dm is serious rocket fuel ,big difference beteween that and a high 60s low dm bale

Ya, in theory, but nobody selling Silage is going to say the quality is only average , and in a yr like this where it’s a sellers market buyers don’t get to call the shots bout testing Silage before negotiating price.

st1979 · 11-01-2018 6:16pm

Buford T. Justice V wrote:

I think we have to get to the stage where we have a reserve of pit silage of at least 3 or 4 months. My BIL has a years silage reserve at all times. Next winter, he will start on last years silage and this years silage will be his reserve. If he eats into his reserve, he sells cattle until he makes enough silage to replace his reserve. It's not a bad policy to have.

I was on a USA farm that had 30,000 cows milking and they had 12 months fodder ahead of them over and above what they need in that year just in case of a disaster. And they were in a pretty good area to grow maize.

Bass Reeves · 11-01-2018 6:18pm

I have noo issue with lads charging 50/bale, I do have an issue with lads paying it. At 50/bale it is way more expensive than ration. I know lads have issue's with trying to give all cattle access to the feed at the same time. Good ration is better than a expensive poor quality bale. However it is hard to estimate the vale of mediun to good quality silage. Most lads fail to factor in haulage costs compare to delivered ration.

Soya hulls not available if they are they are at 220/ton. Barley has gone up in price. The other factor is straw is not available and hay is not available either in much quanity. Some lads have already sourced there requirement and even in area's where it was available silage is scarce.

Willfarman · 11-01-2018 6:35pm

50 euro a bale or buy 200kgs of 16% meal. 4 kgs feeds 50 cattle and then ration whatever forage you have with it to keep stomachs right.

Muckit · 11-01-2018 6:49pm

Is over dependency on baled silage a reason for a lot of these shortages? In that It's harder to keep it over from year to year. Hard to 'bank' silage in the good year.

If lads had a pit and made say 20% more silage than they needed annually, in year 5 if they only got 20% of theur silage they'd still have 100% of their winter feed

Mooooo · 11-01-2018 6:52pm

Muckit wrote: »

Is over dependency on baled silage a reason for a lot of these shortages? In that It's harder to keep it over from year to year. Hard to 'bank' silage in the good year.

If lads had a pit and made say 20% more sulage rhan thry needed, in year 5 if thry

Tbh it's weather related this year on nw surely, I made 300 bales from strong paddocks in 2014 along with 2 cuts of silage., in 2012 with less numbers made no bales and couldn't harvest part of second cut.

Bass Reeves · 11-01-2018 7:06pm

Muckit wrote: »

Is over dependency on baled silage a reason for a lot of these shortages? In that It's harder to keep it over from year to year. Hard to 'bank' silage in the good year.

If lads had a pit and made say 20% more silage than they needed annually, in year 5 if they only got 20% of theur silage they'd still have 100% of their winter feed

I do not think dependency on bale silage is the issue. Entering ground into traditional hay meadows may be a problem. earlier GLAS and AEOS had it set at 10HA or 25 acres this is a large amount of land. Early winter this year has not helped and as some posted earlier some lads had got into the habit of buying a large of there silage requirement. As well lots of lads in the west were dependent on straw with ration to fill gap when silage was gone.

TBH I expect that most lads that were buying a large amount had it sourced early in the year. In a way bale silage may be a part of the problem as it allowed farmers on smaller farms to do two cuts of silage not really an option with pit silage if you were only doing 15-20 acres of first cut and 10ish acres of second cut. Lots of lads got caught with second cut this year.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 11-01-2018 7:11pm

st1979 wrote: »

I was on a USA farm that had 30,000 cows milking and they had 12 months fodder ahead of them over and above what they need in that year just in case of a disaster. And they were in a pretty good area to grow maize.

Looks like it may be time for more concrete to go down:eek:

mahoney_j · 11-01-2018 7:20pm

Snowfire wrote: »

Ya, in theory, but nobody selling Silage is going to say the quality is only average , and in a yr like this where it’s a sellers market buyers don’t get to call the shots bout testing Silage before negotiating price.

If price is top dollar test should be completed simple ,after that there’s other options like acting before it’s too late ,feeding straights and in some cases sell stock

patsy_mccabe · 11-01-2018 7:24pm

I think going forward lack of straw will be a huge problem, so one less feed source to fill the gaps of scarce silage.

Dakota Dan · 11-01-2018 7:25pm

davidk1394 wrote: »

€50 is wrong in my opinion. But I don't see why we should leave the prices low. In years of over supply people had to sell excess fodder at a lower price but in a good year like this they can charge the going rate. Farmers seem to begrudge the lads that are making money this year but they didn't mind buying silage last year because it was cheap. I remember seeing people post last spring who were saying it was cheaper to buy silage than to make it. Now their turning around giving out its too expensive.

And some fcukers think they are entitled to silage free, draw away and forget to pay.

Reggie. · 11-01-2018 7:53pm

whelan2 wrote: »

Reggie

I can guarentee you I would have gone back for it

whelan2 · 11-01-2018 7:56pm

Dakota Dan wrote: »

And some fcukers think they are entitled to silage free, draw away and forget to pay.

Dont worry they'll be a long time looking next time.

Grueller · 12-01-2018 12:10am

Giving out about sellers squeezing now is a bit rich. In other years lads buying put them to the wall offering €12-15 a bale when it is plentiful.

Also, this is going to sound harsh, but in any 5 year period there are now at least 2 "crisis" years. If it is that hars on your farm to make enough silage you need to review stocking rates or if the land is so poor, exit farming. I love farming but the stress of not having enough fodder is savage. I was in that boat when the east wind was burming me up in spring 4 years?ago. If I was regularly getting caught I would get out.

Dakota Dan · 12-01-2018 9:39am

Grueller wrote: »

Giving out about sellers squeezing now is a bit rich. In other years lads buying put them to the wall offering €12-15 a bale when it is plentiful.

Also, this is going to sound harsh, but in any 5 year period there are now at least 2 "crisis" years. If it is that hars on your farm to make enough silage you need to review stocking rates or if the land is so poor, exit farming. I love farming but the stress of not having enough fodder is savage. I was in that boat when the east wind was burming me up in spring 4 years?ago. If I was regularly getting caught I would get out.

True but the silage selling game is a dead loss when you add up all the costs, it would make more sense to let a farmer get a few grazings off it during the summer and get a few bob for it and keep the grass down without the huge costs of silage making. Even with your own machinery it doesn't make sense.

Bass Reeves · 12-01-2018 10:06am

Dakota Dan wrote: »

True but the silage selling game is a dead loss when you add up all the costs, it would make more sense to let a farmer get a few grazings off it during the summer and get a few bob for it and keep the grass down without the huge costs of silage making. Even with your own machinery it doesn't make sense.

A lot of the reason for that is that most silage made to sell is crap. Lads not putting fertlizer on it waiting until they July to make it and then often after failing to make hay of it. Unfortunately the costs of making bales silage is a high front cost. Know a few lads that do it fairly right and they make a small profit every year. Even in the years of plenty of silage they average high 20's delivered. Know another fella that go'es the low cost route and he sells it into ex yard averaging low 20's most years. He has his own baler and wrapper but seems happy enough at it.

The thing that kills bales silage is productions cost , in reality pit silage is little different if sold ex yard. As well bale silage has a poor reputation a lot due to FJ journalists calling it lucky bags. However good/middling quality high DM bales are worth 30 euro delivered at least.

Take 72 DMD silage @35%; DM a bale 750kgs gives 262kgs of DM @35 euro/bale delivered into yard it is costing 14c/kg DM if all bales are good

Even sialge 65-70DMD at 40% DM in a bale weighing 700kgs gives 280kgs DM @30 euro/bale delivered into yard it is costing 10.7c/kgDM

But in general you will not buy this type of silage. Most lads now making high DM silage are putting extra wrap on it and know the value of it. Nowadays silage bales are 100kgs heavier than 5-10 years ago. As well some lads are starting to use the plastic film instead of netting to hold the bales togeather.But at the end of the day it comes back to value for money and cost into yard not ex yard.

patsy_mccabe · 12-01-2018 10:32am

I think lads are fierce judgemental here. Do guys in the East know that it rained almost constant from July . Ye would drown if ye had to live down here.:D
I was lucky this year in that I cut mine a bit early as weather was fine. Left me a bit short, but if I left it a week later I would have been caught.

croot · 12-01-2018 11:35am

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

I think lads are fierce judgemental here. Do guys in the East know that it rained almost constant from July . Ye would drown if ye had to live down here.:D
I was lucky this year in that I cut mine a bit early as weather was fine. Left me a bit short, but if I left it a week later I would have been caught.

+1

The last crisis was caused by a bad spring. Most people learned their lesson and kept extra ground for silage.

Although the outcome is the same this years problems is caused by not being able to cut that extra forage.

I know guys selling bales and most years they hardly cover costs so this year is good for them. Like Bass says I dont have a problem with them charging a lot but why do other farmers pay it. I've been substituting ration in because I had cattle in since the end of August and I've stretched out my own silgae fairly well because of that. If we get a decent spring I should be ok. Ration might be dear but in feed value terms compared to the cost of silage bales, its cheap.

Muckit · 12-01-2018 11:35am

It probably didn't leave you short in reality if u measured in feed value. You'd have to ration it with cows though or they'd pack on the pounds

Dakota Dan · 12-01-2018 12:19pm

croot wrote: »

+1

The last crisis was caused by a bad spring. Most people learned their lesson and kept extra ground for silage.

Although the outcome is the same this years problems is caused by not being able to cut that extra forage.

I know guys selling bales and most years they hardly cover costs so this year is good for them. Like Bass says I dont have a problem with them charging a lot but why do other farmers pay it. I've been substituting ration in because I had cattle in since the end of August and I've stretched out my own silgae fairly well because of that. If we get a decent spring I should be ok. Ration might be dear but in feed value terms compared to the cost of silage bales, its cheap.

The end of August Jaysus, if I had to do that here I'd shut the gate and walk away from it.

croot · 12-01-2018 1:15pm

Dakota Dan wrote: »

The end of August Jaysus, if I had to do that here I'd shut the gate and walk away from it.

Gates????

Us poor farmers cant afford them. Its pallets and bailing twine

Reggie. · 12-01-2018 1:18pm

croot wrote: »

Gates????

Us poor farmers cant afford them. Its pallets and bailing twine

You have pallets??? Your well to do

Bass Reeves · 12-01-2018 1:19pm

croot wrote: »

Gates????

Us poor farmers cant afford them. Its pallets and bailing twine

Steel pipe through the pallets nearly makes them into a gate if all the same design:rolleyes:

patsy_mccabe · 12-01-2018 5:28pm

Around here the pallets and twine get eaten in a bad year.:D

sea12 · 12-01-2018 7:53pm

See allot of attics moving stuff the past few days. Few loads of mine went during week. artic driver was saying he has moved more since December than all of last year and has work fir the next 10 days drawing it.

Wonder is it s bit of scaremongering going on it is it really as bad as it sounds.

darragh_haven · 12-01-2018 8:51pm

Sell 300 + bales here every year. Pre-sold back in May. €30 In God and bad years, collected from our yard. Repeat costumers for the last 5 or 6 years. Very good quality bales and never fail to get paid. Have had a steady line of people looking for bales in the last 3 or 4 weeks, but have nothing to spare.
One small holding farmer nearby has almost nothing left, so told him we can give him 12 of the ok-ish bales, he's going to take 2 a week starting next week.

KatyMac · 12-01-2018 8:56pm

What would you consider a fair price for 'okay-ish' bales? Mine are nothing to write home about, but had a lad asking and I'd hate to see someone stuck. They are dry, sweet smelling and my cattle are doing fine on them. Major issue is there are rushes through them. At the same time the cattle are leaving very little behind (and they are not so hungry that they'd eat anything!!). I literally got them out of the field day before weather broke completely last July, think it's rained since then this part of the world.

Bass Reeves · 12-01-2018 9:01pm

KatyMac wrote: »

What would you consider a fair price for 'okay-ish' bales? Mine are nothing to write home about, but had a lad asking and I'd hate to see someone stuck. They are dry, sweet smelling and my cattle are doing fine on them. Major issue is there are rushes through them. At the same time the cattle are leaving very little behind (and they are not so hungry that they'd eat anything!!). I literally got them out of the field day before weather broke completely last July, think it's rained since then this part of the world.

If they are not leaving much behind and you are in an area where there is a scarcity 25 would not be outrageous. Lads buy late June and 2016 bales around paying 22-26/bale and transport on top around here. Will be costing 30-35/bale delivered 60+ miles

wrangler · 12-01-2018 9:07pm

KatyMac wrote: »

What would you consider a fair price for 'okay-ish' bales? Mine are nothing to write home about, but had a lad asking and I'd hate to see someone stuck. They are dry, sweet smelling and my cattle are doing fine on them. Major issue is there are rushes through them. At the same time the cattle are leaving very little behind (and they are not so hungry that they'd eat anything!!). I literally got them out of the field day before weather broke completely last July, think it's rained since then this part of the world.

I think if you add in everything darragh haven has it right, €10+ machinery cost, €10 fertiliser, land use €10....your costs won't be much less than that.
Imight be high but selling at €25 is losing money

Willfarman · 12-01-2018 9:34pm

If they are well packed bales of dryish silage then 30 is fair.

KatyMac · 12-01-2018 9:37pm

thanks that gives me a fair idea. Can always let him take one and see what his cattle think of it!!! I'd hate to be one of the lucky-bag sellers.

Water John · 12-01-2018 10:03pm

I suspect there are a good few 'glas' bales, July cut, around the country. Got some myself. I presume that's what you are describing, Kathy.
Will sell to a neighbour who I know needs them. Offered some for North West of Ireland help. no one got back to me.
We sent some down to Bantry in 2000, when they needed them. Wouldn't be hard on people caught with wet land and a long winter.
Another neighbour helped 6/7 other farmers in 2012, no fanfare.

darragh_haven · 12-01-2018 10:40pm

KatyMac wrote: »

What would you consider a fair price for 'okay-ish' bales? Mine are nothing to write home about, but had a lad asking and I'd hate to see someone stuck. They are dry, sweet smelling and my cattle are doing fine on them. Major issue is there are rushes through them. At the same time the cattle are leaving very little behind (and they are not so hungry that they'd eat anything!!). I literally got them out of the field day before weather broke completely last July, think it's rained since then this part of the world.

This man offered 20 cash, ok for small amounts. You'd want 24 through the books, otherwise your loosing money. It costs nearly the same to make a bad bale as a good bale

Bass Reeves · 13-01-2018 2:00am

wrangler wrote: »

I think if you add in everything darragh haven has it right, €10+ machinery cost, €10 fertiliser, land use €10....your costs won't be much less than that.
Imight be high but selling at €25 is losing money

Willfarman wrote: »

If they are well packed bales of dryish silage then 30 is fair.

darragh_haven wrote: »

This man offered 20 cash, ok for small amounts. You'd want 24 through the books, otherwise your loosing money. It costs nearly the same to make a bad bale as a good bale

It is all relative. IMO the ex yard price is immaterial compared to the delivered price. For OKish bales with rushes in them compared to 3-4kgs of ration and minimum roughish I would not be buying it above 20-25/bale.

Into my bin at the moment I can get a fairly good finishing ration at 220/ton, neighbour is paying 210 for a forage stretcher, barley is above 200/ton and hulls 220/ton either is better value than low dmd bales. . Cost of making bales is immaterial, in a way market is immaterial. UFL one to the other hard to price especially when idiots are paying 280/ton for hi-maize :rolleyes: bags of ration with a nice molasses smell.

I know what it cost to make good bale silage, lots of lads here that are on the other side o the fence are now are suddenly converts. But 30+ for bales with rushes in them made in July

.

K.G. · 13-01-2018 9:10am

In an area near us there was.a.guy made a pure killing during the last fodder crisis asked 60euros a bale .he got the most of it but two years later he was abroad as his nice baling business disappeared the year after.a friend says people forget a good turn quickly but they never forget when you screw them

Muckit · 13-01-2018 9:45am

K.G. wrote: »

a friend says people forget a good turn quickly but they never forget when you screw them

Sounds like you could never keep those type people happy. You'd probably be a fool to try.

Following on from what Bass said about expensive ration, I've never heard anyone hold a grudge against a miller. Funny old world.

tanko · 13-01-2018 9:54am

Muckit wrote: »

Sounds like you could never keep those type people happy. You'd probably be a fool to try.

Following on from what Bass said about expensive ration, I've never heard anyone hold a grudge against a miller. Funny old world.

Plenty of farmers who had their herds wiped out by BSE would have a few things to say about millers.

Muckit · 13-01-2018 9:56am

tanko wrote: »

Plenty of farmers who had their herds wiped out by BSE would have a few things to say about millers.

Well l suppose that's a different story. I was just talking purely from a price perspective.

Bass Reeves · 13-01-2018 10:40am

Muckit wrote: »

Sounds like you could never keep those type people happy. You'd probably be a fool to try.

Following on from what Bass said about expensive ration, I've never heard anyone hold a grudge against a miller. Funny old world.

What is worse most of the price gouging on bag rations are not Merchants and Millers but co-op's and usually you are getting lucky bag stuff as well with plenty of fillers in it. It is amazing we are in the business of farming and very few have much knowledge of rations and different constituents that millers use. As well often trying to get a breakdown from miller/co-op is like third secret of Fatima.

whelan2 · 13-01-2018 10:55am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

What is worse most of the price gouging on bag rations are not Merchants and Millers but co-op's and usually you are getting lucky bag stuff as well with plenty of fillers in it. It is amazing we are in the business of farming and very few have much knowledge of rations and different constituents that millers use. As well often trying to get a breakdown from miller/co-op is like third secret of Fatima.

Most lads dont even ask the price of what they are getting never mind what's in it. Alot of farmers buy off the same place all the time. Only themselves to blame for being screwed

Fodder Crisis

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