FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58 · 14-11-2019 11:44pm

The LP that the ECM was showing for around Thurs next now shown to fill on approach well off the SW and track more towards Spain.

pauldry · 15-11-2019 12:28am

A week ago today was supposed to be the end of the cold weather. I think we are stuck in this cold wet regime until December and then maybe it will ease. Keeps been pushed out. If it was Summer we would be very irate with the forecast because the long range one keeps showing a mild high that never comes.

hatrickpatrick · 15-11-2019 9:35pm

Things starting to look interesting at the tail end of tonight’s ECM 12z

ECM1-240.GIF?15-0

Usual caveats apply, but this is intriguing to say the least.

pauldry · 15-11-2019 9:39pm

Yes but the air sourced from the East in November gives temperatures around 5 to 8c so more bleeeh.

Maybe if it keeps up this pattern into December then itl be game on.

Logan Roy · 15-11-2019 9:54pm

If today is "bleeeh" then i'll take an entire winter of it please

Meteorite58 · 16-11-2019 12:40pm

Looks wet at times as we go through the week, ECM showing along the S / SE with the highest accumulations and then next weekend showing Ireland at this stage to be quite wet and a bit windy. Showing high rainfall accumulations along Southern and South Eastern counties atm. Mid level temps shown to make a big jump over the weekend with an advancing weather system and airmass sourced from lower latitudes accompanied by a fresh southerly wind . Big temperature gradients and a strong jet could lead to strong winds and heavy rains, will see. Currently showing temps up to 12 to 13C on Sunday.

Gonzo · 16-11-2019 10:16pm

latest extreme FI charts up to New Years Day are suggesting an Atlantic driven December, but nothing terribly mild, with cold north-westerlies persisting for much of the time. This would suggest plenty of cold rain showers and some wintryness at times, especially over high ground in the west and north. A few attempts at high pressure that don't get very far. No real sign of any cold easterlys or mild south-westerlies either.

The Atlantic has been raging since mid September and hasn't really skipped a heart beat since, so it seems fairly believeable that the Atlantic will continue to dominate our weather for the forseeable future.

I seem to remember that Winter 2018 had a fairly prolonged run of cold Atlantic driven north-westerlies from mid December and lasting all the way till end of February when the beast was unleashed. Could we see a similar winter this year I wonder.

pauldry · 17-11-2019 2:31am

This Winter is almost certain to be a colder than normal one

Novembers been doninated by single digit temperatues

December will be mild but January and Febuary not

AND we WILL get a White Christmas this year

This was my feeling in June and Novembers obliged. What u got December

joe199 · 17-11-2019 12:24pm

What have the bookies got the odds of a white Christmas at? Maybe worth a punt

esposito · 17-11-2019 12:36pm

pauldry wrote: »

This Winter is almost certain to be a colder than normal one

Novembers been doninated by single digit temperatues

December will be mild but January and Febuary not

AND we WILL get a White Christmas this year

This was my feeling in June and Novembers obliged. What u got December

What makes you so sure we will get a white Christmas? And you contradict yourself by saying December will be mild. Strange comments...

We all know the most likely scenario will be a green Christmas but we shall wait and see. Nothing can be predicted this far out.

Meteorite58 · 17-11-2019 2:38pm

ECM looking milder from later next weekend, temp rise arriving a bit later on this run. Not showing the same tight gradient over next weekend as earlier runs but I suspect we will be seeing different looking charts for a couple of days. The Jet charts are all over the place, looks very fractured with no clear pattern for the moment. Way out in FI according to the GFS it would appear to show the Atlantic take over with a succession of LP's. ECM showing a west East flow of weather out to the end of its run.

Gonzo · 18-11-2019 12:11am

GFS late night run wants to make us shiver in about 10 days: more than likely this will be gone by tomorrow. Looks interesting if a little short lived, large pinch of salt, this likely will be gone by the morning.

Low Pressure crosses us 27th of November with cold air not too far away.

winds swing around to the north with a long fetch of cold northerly winds

Showers could turn wintry by the 28th of November:

east/north-east winds by the 30th of November, could bring anything from cold rain to snow along eastern areas.

The -10 uppers get close to Scotland with -15 uppers very soon after that. Very cold everywhere as the golden gates of Winter swing open.

hatrickpatrick · 18-11-2019 12:19am

Tonight's runs of both the ECM and GFS show higher pressure (not high pressure but higher than the Atlantic lows) trying to establish itself over Greenland, and the 18z GFS shows the Brits briefly stealing a Northerly from us and getting a proper cold blast :mad:

FI, but encouraging signal so early in the season, particularly with what's going on in the Stratosphere at the moment. I don't have the chart to hand, but apparently after a brief spike, the zonal winds are forecast to start plunging again towards the end of the month. Plenty of eye-candy among the GFS ensembles as well... Not time to get excited, but possibly time to start keeping a very watchful eye for the next couple of weeks!

Meteorite58 · 18-11-2019 1:23am

More in the short term but still outside the +120 hrs more reliable time frame has the ECM showing big rainfall accumulations especially in the SE, lots of weather fronts crossing the country this week.

Meteorite58 · 19-11-2019 1:09pm

Entering a period of LP dominated weather generally on the mild side.

Artane2002 · 20-11-2019 8:55am

Just for fun but if I'm reading correctly, the ICON this morning drops down a chunk of vortex very close by us towards the end of the run in a northerly. ECM is similar but not quite as close. I haven't seen what the temperatures are like but I don't imagine them being desperately cold.

BLIZZARD7 · 20-11-2019 9:39am

Artane2002 wrote: »

Just for fun but if I'm reading correctly, the ICON this morning drops down a chunk of vortex very close by us towards the end of the run in a northerly. ECM is similar but not quite as close. I haven't seen what the temperatures are like but I don't imagine them being desperately cold.

ECM, ICON, The UKMO (up to +144hrs albeit) are all primed for a large scale cold outbreak from the North/North East. The ICON has the most developed evolution, the others are a few days off still. Anyway this is well out in FI for now but a notable switch and convergence on a new theme this morning. GFS not awful from an NH point of view but not quite as swift as the others with the pattern change.

ICON +180hrs

ECM +240hrs

ECH1-240.GIF?20-12

UKMO +144hrs

UN144-21.GIF?20-06

One to watch...

Gonzo · 20-11-2019 12:23pm

this mornings GFS runs are the picture of total and utter uncertainty. Huge amount of scatter from the 26th of November with uppers ranging anywhere from an insanely mild +12 to a freezer level -10 @850hpa. Most of the later runs are on the milder side rather than the colder side. The only thing that is certain from the models is precipitation and plenty of it.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-11-20&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-11-20&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

Kermit.de.frog · 20-11-2019 7:44pm

Looking more interesting today alright with height rises toward Greenland. There is a path to cold here through either northerly or north easterly winds.

ECH1-168.GIF?20-0

Billcarson · 20-11-2019 7:46pm

....and it's isn't well out in fi either.

sryanbruen · 20-11-2019 8:11pm

Definitely some interest today for the final week of November with a -NAO signal although maybe somewhat western based which increases the risk of low pressure systems running too close to us. Nevertheless, some evidence for Scandi troughing which will only help a northerly wind to occur. This seems to be the trend today especially this evening but we've seen some wild swings and the GEFS another poster posted and more recent runs too is indicative of that showing similar results.

What's different this time around is the -NAO is signaled towards the "outer reaches" of FI rather than 200 hrs + away although FI is FI, I can't help but think some sort of transient northerly at the least is more than likely. If the NAO were to be less western based and the Greenland High be strong enough like at 168 hrs on the latest ECM, I'd say there would be a modest chance of going into a more prolonged spell of northerly winds though that's hypothetical speaking and food for thought than a forecast at this point.

Intriguing.

Meteorite58 · 20-11-2019 9:03pm

That is a big change in 24hrs by the ECM . Would have to see a few more runs of consistent cold charts to have some confidence in it.

GFS short cold blast similar timing to the ECM and then ......... well you don't want to know

sryanbruen · 20-11-2019 9:15pm

There’s a fair strong agreement for the 168 hr timeframe with the EPS indicating the Greenland High/Scandinavia troughing combo. Trough more over us though so cold and wet unless we saw the trough centred further south and or east.

sryanbruen · 21-11-2019 4:05pm

Looks fairly similar today in retrospect but more of an emphasis on Euro heights so the jet stream is pushed further northwards allowing it to be milder but still wet (not what we need). Some Greenland ridging still there but again western based and maybe weaker too. See what the 12zs say.

Kermit.de.frog · 21-11-2019 5:59pm

UKMO the pick of the bunch this evening but a fragile set up. GFS similar but starts breaking down from the southwest by day 8. This sort of north/north east flow have to last a couple of days to tap true arctic air. We are not there yet, the mid Atlantic ridge is fairly weak; just enough to disrupt but only takes a couple of runs and changes here and there for things to turn in favour.

PokeHerKing · 21-11-2019 8:25pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UKMO the pick of the bunch this evening but a fragile set up. GFS similar but starts breaking down from the southwest by day 8. This sort of north/north east flow have to last a couple of days to tap true arctic air. We are not there yet, the mid Atlantic ridge is fairly weak; just enough to disrupt but only takes a couple of runs and changes here and there for things to turn in favour.

ECM the pick of the bunch now. Finishes out looking very 2009esque!!

hatrickpatrick · 21-11-2019 8:42pm

What a gorgeous 10 day chart

Meteorite58 · 21-11-2019 9:05pm

The second half of next week holding the cold theme by the ECM. Would be nice if we got the Hp that the charts are showing , currently showing cold frosty nights and cool days from Thurs to Sat . LP's feature at the end of the run around Sat running into cold air so would be an interest to see if anything comes of that but a long way off.