2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Fuzzy_Dunlop wrote: »

Well you would be totally wrong

Well foolish is all I can say...given maximum affordability was reached 2 years ago any overpayment will likely equal negative equity in the short term as wages are not there to sustain the prices long term given CBI rules

PropQueries wrote: »

But how many of the landowners who paid over the odds during the Celtic tiger years are still making decisions other than being the face of the company? Wouldn’t the banks, Nama or the funds now own/owned or at least have control or a major say in most of that land today.

A lot of the developers bought the land back from NAMA

Smouse156 wrote: »

Well I will be (possibly) and I’m not gonna buy if it means I’d be in negative equity within a year! Fundamentally any spikes are unsustainable as wages are going down.

I work in finance and I realise that asset inflation is currently present in the stock market but housing is not the same thing...if a 400k house had two bidders with maximum budget of 350k last year and they have 5 bidders this year with 350k max budget, the house still drops in price to sell! Overall unless wages rise with this inflation, eventually supply will put over payers into negative equity pretty quickly

Am also buying and very worried that prices are over inflated and we will be in negative equity in a few years . However I think supply is so low it will only get worse for the next two years, and in those two years we will pay 36k on rent. Moreso as we are WFH since covid we are dying for a garden and to have more space so our work area can be in a different room to where we relax.

Ursabear wrote: »

Am also buying and very worried that prices are over inflated and we will be in negative equity in a few years . However I think supply is so low it will only get worse for the next two years, and in those two years we will pay 36k on rent. Moreso as we are WFH since covid we are dying for a garden and to have more space so our work area can be in a different room to where we relax.

The Dublin property market is so screwed up that you basically have to assume you will be overcharged. Pre-Covid I assumed 5-10% purely due to opaque way auctions are carried out.


With the prospect of permanent WFH and even more anti-landlord regulations, much of the case for buying city-centre apartments is at best on shakey ground.

PropQueries wrote: »

So, it’s probably agreed that the only real reason for the difference in the cost of building an A2-rated three bed semi in Dublin compared to Waterford is the cost of the site.

All those reports published over the past 5 years on the possible reasons for the rising cost of housing in Dublin are next to useless from a government policy point of view.

Unless the government implements the Kenny report or something similar, it would seem there’s no point commissioning another report unless it properly addresses the only real reason for the difference i.e. the site cost.

They should also probably rename the proposed HTB scheme to HTL i.e. Help The Landowner, as that’s where the proposed up to €100k loan to the poor home buyer will be really going.

Yes, land and site costs are a cancer at the heart of Irish society.

Ursabear wrote:

Am also buying and very worried that prices are over inflated and we will be in negative equity in a few years . However I think supply is so low it will only get worse for the next two years, and in those two years we will pay 36k on rent. Moreso as we are WFH since covid we are dying for a garden and to have more space so our work area can be in a different room to where we relax.

What County are u working in

Ursabear wrote: »

Am also buying and very worried that prices are over inflated and we will be in negative equity in a few years . However I think supply is so low it will only get worse for the next two years, and in those two years we will pay 36k on rent. Moreso as we are WFH since covid we are dying for a garden and to have more space so our work area can be in a different room to where we relax.

Outside Dublin, I think prices will keep rising as they haven’t hit maximum affordability yet. In Dublin, given all the fundamental factors: WFH, most housing supply being built in Dublin, the fact that many many don’t want to live there (can’t see the rent slaves skipping into work to pay 40-60% of their income in rent for a shoebox apartment and loving the place) and maximum affordability it is more likely (negative equity) in the medium term.

However, if you are renting you might still be better off buying as long as you don’t get carried away in bidding wars.

handlemaster wrote: »

After the covid there will be more WFH but ultimately people will move back to the main job centers. Not all employers will want their staff WFH even if they can. And not everyone wants to wfh either. If your a family person with kids it would suit perhaps more wfh but when your young and single you want to mingle.

Yes but a balanced WFH policy which I believe most companies will implement will make the commuter counties (Kildare, Meath etc) far far more attractive than 5 days a week in Dublin!

One of the positives of Covid has been WFH and many of the Dublin rent slaves stuck in the rent trap have now managed to save a deposit. 3/4 bed new build with near zero deposit in Kildare/Meath v shoebox in Dublin, where would you pick if you only had to be in office twice/three times a week with a family? Won’t suit young people I know but most young people are renters anyway and not in a position (low wages) or not looking to buy

I am sale agreed on a new house at present (i have contracts signed), the auctioneer told me yesterday that all the other properties in the estate where contracts are not signed, the prices are going up! The developer is blaming cost of materials increasing due to both covid and brexit!!
Is this happening everywhere?

TheSheriff wrote: »

You very clearly have some hatred of Dublin, not sure why you are (possibly/maybe/might be) buying there.

Don’t hate it, just feel people get a very raw deal there! I haven’t lived in Dublin since 2016 (rent was low then) and it’s a decent city if you own your own house, however, you’d have to feel for the rent slaves getting such a raw deal paying the highest rents in the euro zone and working solely to enrich the landlord, to live in a city that’s no way comparable to places like Paris. House prices are at least more reasonable. I think many people feel the same way

Ursabear wrote: »

Agree with that about city apartments, we will be buying out of city , near family as this pandemic has proven how nice it into be around family.( not being able to see them or most of a year) . I think we could WFH for the rest of our careers, so we have considered buying a nicer house down the country, but family trumped that, however a handful of friends have started doing so.

Makes me shudder that I was on the verge of exchanging for somewhere Dublin 1 back in July. Would be licking serious losses already..

Marty1983 wrote: »

I am sale agreed on a new house at present (i have contracts signed), the auctioneer told me yesterday that all the other properties in the estate where contracts are not signed, the prices are going up! The developer is blaming cost of materials increasing due to both covid and brexit!!
Is this happening everywhere?

There is a more fundamental question: Is he talking out of his mouth or his arse?

Ursabear wrote:

Dublin, and buying in a satellite county near my family.

Sateltte Dublin may well be the big beneficiary of WFH, if it is within your affordability range and close to your family (which has enormous benefits) it may be time to pull the trigger.

I am convinced we are in a bubble. The last bubble lasted from 1996 to 2006/7.
It will burst again but our government are coming up with ever increasing schemes to make the bubble bigger so it may go on for years yet. The hosing market is controlled by developers/reits and they have the government's ear despite advise to the contrary from the top civil servant advisor.

This government have 4 years left I believe. They won't stop making life more difficult for you as a renter

I put Ireland at 2003 in relation to the next house price crash in comparison to the last one

Students in UK planning a rent strike