2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Ursabear

Villa05 wrote: »

Sateltte Dublin may well be the big beneficiary of WFH, if it is within your affordability range and close to your family (which has enormous benefits) it may be time to pull the trigger.

I am convinced we are in a bubble. The last bubble lasted from 1996 to 2006/7.
It will burst again but our government are coming up with ever increasing schemes to make the bubble bigger so it may go on for years yet. The hosing market is controlled by developers/reits and they have the government's ear despite advise to the contrary from the top civil servant advisor.

This government have 4 years left I believe. They won't stop making life more difficult for you as a renter

I put Ireland at 2003 in relation to the next house price crash in comparison to the last one

Yep, I agree, I hoping that by this time next month we will be sale agreed . Also we are getting older by the day and want to be able to have a non rent life for example to own a dog! Can't keep putting life on pause.

PommieBast

Marius34 wrote: »

Ok, I understand your point if you mean you are move out of Dublin city center. Otherwise, if its regarding the price, I don't see what has changed in regards in City center apartments.

Suppose it is due to the critiera I have in mind in deciding what property is worth being different from yours. Most of the things that I thought would help prop up Dublin prices have since disappeared.

DataDude

Smouse156 wrote: »

Yes but a balanced WFH policy which I believe most companies will implement will make the commuter counties (Kildare, Meath etc) far far more attractive than 5 days a week in Dublin!

One of the positives of Covid has been WFH and many of the Dublin rent slaves stuck in the rent trap have now managed to save a deposit. 3/4 bed new build with near zero deposit in Kildare/Meath v shoebox in Dublin, where would you pick if you only had to be in office twice/three times a week with a family? Won’t suit young people I know but most young people are renters anyway and not in a position (low wages) or not looking to buy

This resonates very strongly with what I have experienced over the last 12 months. I know stories from one individual rarely mean much...but for what it's worth:
I'm fortunate to work in a profession where I meet/work with a fair few 20 somethings with annual incomes in the range of 100-250k (unaffected by COVID-19). Myself and 4 others have been actively searching for homes since late 2019. All 5 of us were set on purchasing between Booterstown and Sandymount (price ranges between 700-1.2m). We have a Whatsapp group where we regularly share properties for others opinions.

Over the last 12 months it has been amazing to watch the group (and my own) perspectives change. Sandymount quickly became removed from all filters, mid last year it was beginning to be Blackrock/Glenageary/Dun Laoghaire...then late last year with us all now having confirmation of between 2-4 days WFH in perpetuity - the properties going into the Whatsapp are now overwhelmingly Greystones/Delgany/Enniskerry/Bray etc.

I'm probably lagging the group to some extent and still haven't ruled out SCD, but once the first of the group bought his stunning house/land in North Wicklow for a pittance compared to Dublin, it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k.

So in our little bubble, 5 high value sales in D4 will now become at least 4 lower value sales in Wicklow (Kildare/Meath etc. are also feasible) solely due to WFH. I know 5 people is a tiny sample size, and it's dangerous to extrapolate your own experiences onto a wider population - but if even 10-20% more young high earning professionals, precisely those who support the most expensive housing markets, turn their back on SCD...I can't see how prices don't suffer in the coming years - it's certainly opened my eyes enough to put any potential purchase on ice!

Villa05

Timing belt wrote:

So another 5 years till you think the bubble (you believe is there) will pop.

When did the SSIAs mature, that cash injection corresponds to jump in savings now, maybe 2005 might be a better measure.
Caveat I suspect most of those savings are attributable to WFH families who have saved on childcare over the last 12 months and are probably home owners

The shared ownership will give another boost to prices and WFH will benefit the Dublin commuter belt so for the poster in question who has family in area,we're it me I'd bite the bullet

Having family closeby is of significant value

Every case is different, I believe the scope for price increase is in Dublin commuter counties, place with good rail access to Dublin, Waterford and Limerick city

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

This resonates very strongly with what I have experienced over the last 12 months. I know stories from one individual rarely mean much...but for what it's worth:
I'm fortunate to work in a profession where I meet/work with a fair few 20 somethings with annual incomes in the range of 100-250k (unaffected by COVID-19). Myself and 4 others have been actively searching for homes since late 2019. All 5 of us were set on purchasing between Booterstown and Sandymount (price ranges between 700-1.2m). We have a Whatsapp group where we regularly share properties for others opinions.

Over the last 12 months it has been amazing to watch the group (and my own) perspectives change. Sandymount quickly became removed from all filters, mid last year it was beginning to be Blackrock/Glenageary/Dun Laoghaire...then late last year with us all now having confirmation of between 2-4 days WFH in perpetuity - the properties going into the Whatsapp are now overwhelmingly Greystones/Delgany/Enniskerry/Bray etc.

I'm probably lagging the group to some extent and still haven't ruled out SCD, but once the first of the group bought his stunning house/land in North Wicklow for a pittance compared to Dublin, it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k.

So in our little bubble, 5 high value sales in D4 will now become at least 4 lower value sales in Wicklow (Kildare/Meath etc. are also feasible) solely due to WFH. I know 5 people is a tiny sample size, and it's dangerous to extrapolate your own experiences onto a wider population - but if even 10-20% more young high earning professionals, precisely those who support the most expensive housing markets, turn their back on SCD...I can't see how prices don't suffer in the coming years - it's certainly opened my eyes enough to put any potential purchase on ice!

Do you think there is a risk of towns like greystones becoming overdeveloped? I like the place and 1 of the reasons it is a “small” town etc. As with many other commuter towns obviously lower prices are attractive but there are also other reasons to move out of the city. If such places become too popular they can lose their allure.

Marty1983

Hubertj wrote: »

Do you think there is a risk of towns like greystones becoming overdeveloped? I like the place and 1 of the reasons it is a “small” town etc. As with many other commuter towns obviously lower prices are attractive but there are also other reasons to move out of the city. If such places become too popular they can lose their allure.

You need strong county planners to combat that and i dont think we have them in Ireland, compared to the north.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Do you think there is a risk of towns like greystones becoming overdeveloped? I like the place and 1 of the reasons it is a “small” town etc. As with many other commuter towns obviously lower prices are attractive but there are also other reasons to move out of the city. If such places become too popular they can lose their allure.

I think the fact that Glenveagh have just sold their apartments at Marina Village to the same fund that owns Herbert Hill in Dundrum i.e. most likely probably future social housing will remove one of the main benefits of Greystones i.e. it’s seafront area.

Still a lovely town but already seriously overdeveloped and getting more so IMO

Idbatterim

from irish times below, there was already a lack of supply, covid has put another serious dent in it. Jesus the situation is going to be total carnage. At this point, they need to stop new hotel, retail etc, commercial being built, that isnt already under construction in my opinion and divert all resources to residential AND perhaps start rezoning commercial as residential. If this was done in good central areas, the older commercial stuff, might be replaced by residential.

"The Central Bank said it expected new home completions to be in the region of 18,500 in 2020, rising to 21,500-23,500 in 2021 and 2022 respectively. This is 23,000 less than it had predicted prior to the pandemic."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/up-to-23-000-fewer-homes-to-be-built-because-of-covid-19-central-bank-warns-1.4464673

PropQueries

Idbatterim wrote: »

from irish times below, there was already a lack of supply, covid has put another serious dent in it. Jesus the situation is going to be total carnage. At this point, they need to stop new hotel, retail etc, commercial being built, that isnt already under construction in my opinion and divert all resources to residential AND perhaps start rezoning commercial as residential. If this was done in good central areas, the older commercial stuff, might be replaced by residential.

"The Central Bank said it expected new home completions to be in the region of 18,500 in 2020, rising to 21,500-23,500 in 2021 and 2022 respectively. This is 23,000 less than it had predicted prior to the pandemic."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/up-to-23-000-fewer-homes-to-be-built-because-of-covid-19-central-bank-warns-1.4464673

We built c. 21k units in 2019. The 2020 18,500 figure is hardly a massive drop on 2019 especially as there must have been a corresponding reduction in immigrants and international students entering the country during 2020 leading to less demand overall.

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

Do you think there is a risk of towns like greystones becoming overdeveloped? I like the place and 1 of the reasons it is a “small” town etc. As with many other commuter towns obviously lower prices are attractive but there are also other reasons to move out of the city. If such places become too popular they can lose their allure.

A very real risk, and one I talk at length about with my partner! I guess it’s always going to be the case that if you find somewhere nice, other people will also want to live there! As another poster suggested, all you can rely on is a solid council planning division. Based on second hand info, I believe Wicklow appear to be one of the toughest planning wise?

One solace I do take is, everyone said Glenheron and Waverley would ‘ruin Greystones’. But it still seems nice to me. I know there is a good few more developments coming and the sale of the golf club is a worry, but hopefully the amenities scale with the town.

If we do go there, we’d look to buy in the burnaby or somewhere just outside with a bit of land around to insulate ourselves from any direct impacts of major developments.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

This resonates very strongly with what I have experienced over the last 12 months. I know stories from one individual rarely mean much...but for what it's worth:
I'm fortunate to work in a profession where I meet/work with a fair few 20 somethings with annual incomes in the range of 100-250k (unaffected by COVID-19). Myself and 4 others have been actively searching for homes since late 2019. All 5 of us were set on purchasing between Booterstown and Sandymount (price ranges between 700-1.2m). We have a Whatsapp group where we regularly share properties for others opinions.

Over the last 12 months it has been amazing to watch the group (and my own) perspectives change. Sandymount quickly became removed from all filters, mid last year it was beginning to be Blackrock/Glenageary/Dun Laoghaire...then late last year with us all now having confirmation of between 2-4 days WFH in perpetuity - the properties going into the Whatsapp are now overwhelmingly Greystones/Delgany/Enniskerry/Bray etc.

I'm probably lagging the group to some extent and still haven't ruled out SCD, but once the first of the group bought his stunning house/land in North Wicklow for a pittance compared to Dublin, it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k.

So in our little bubble, 5 high value sales in D4 will now become at least 4 lower value sales in Wicklow (Kildare/Meath etc. are also feasible) solely due to WFH. I know 5 people is a tiny sample size, and it's dangerous to extrapolate your own experiences onto a wider population - but if even 10-20% more young high earning professionals, precisely those who support the most expensive housing markets, turn their back on SCD...I can't see how prices don't suffer in the coming years - it's certainly opened my eyes enough to put any potential purchase on ice!

Interesting to hear from the horses mouth. There are many on here who say exactly what you describe above is never going to happen, but cannot help think it will happen to some extent. And it does not need to be a very large extent to have a big impact.

I also found your comment - "it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k" - very revealing. Peer groups tend to emulate each other to some extent - if young high earners start saying "sure, why would you buy that in booterstown, when you can get a larger detached in XYZ further out" it will become self reinforcing as more people turn their back on what previous generations have prized. Again it doesn't need to be very many of them to start with to have a big impact.

All in all, cracking post, not least because I am planning on selling one of those detached houses in North Wicklow in the spring!

PropQueries

Robalees wrote: »

In dublin I see a lot of empty houses there's about 200 within a mile of me. They are not for sale or rent I wonder how many houses in dublin are empty.

Well, given all the ex-student and Airbnb rentals that must be vacant, the real vacancy figure must be a multiple of whatever the current “official” figure is.

If it’s not, that means everyone who wanted their own house/apartment in Dublin must already have one by now.

PommieBast

Robalees wrote: »

In dublin I see a lot of empty houses there's about 200 within a mile of me. They are not for sale or rent I wonder how many houses in dublin are empty.

What amazes me is the number of properties that are so derelict they are practically being held intact by plant growth.

hometruths

<SNIP>

Dublin is riddled with vacancies and the number is rising. Bit odd, as it is not what you'd expect in a housing crisis, but there you go.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Interesting to hear from the horses mouth. There are many on here who say exactly what you describe above is never going to happen, but cannot help think it will happen to some extent. And it does not need to be a very large extent to have a big impact.

I also found your comment - "it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k" - very revealing. Peer groups tend to emulate each other to some extent - if young high earners start saying "sure, why would you buy that in booterstown, when you can get a larger detached in XYZ further out" it will become self reinforcing as more people turn their back on what previous generations have prized. Again it doesn't need to be very many of them to start with to have a big impact.

All in all, cracking post, not least because I am planning on selling one of those detached houses in North Wicklow in the spring!

You ain’t gettin 180m2 in booterstown for €900k!

Speaking of north Wicklow how long have you lived there? Do you think it is becoming or there is a risk of being over developed?

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Interesting to hear from the horses mouth. There are many on here who say exactly what you describe above is never going to happen, but cannot help think it will happen to some extent. And it does not need to be a very large extent to have a big impact.

I also found your comment - "it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k" - very revealing. Peer groups tend to emulate each other to some extent - if young high earners start saying "sure, why would you buy that in booterstown, when you can get a larger detached in XYZ further out" it will become self reinforcing as more people turn their back on what previous generations have prized. Again it doesn't need to be very many of them to start with to have a big impact.

All in all, cracking post, not least because I am planning on selling one of those detached houses in North Wicklow in the spring!

Completely agree re. It being self reinforcing - every viewing we went in to in SCD after visiting our friends house in Wicklow became a bitter disappointment against our new point of comparison.

Looking forward to your house coming on sale - there is a serious lack of them at the moment!

PropQueries

PommieBast wrote: »

What amazes me is the number of properties that are so derelict they are practically being held intact by plant growth.

There are many but I’ve also noticed many have been refurbished over the past few years. Most likely due to being purchased during the 2012 to 2014 CGT breaks.

What amazes me is the number of new built A-rated apartments and houses that have remained vacant over the past few years.

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

You ain’t gettin 180m2 in booterstown for €900k!

Speaking of north Wicklow how long have you lived there? Do you think it is becoming or there is a risk of being over developed?

You’re right, I was being optimistic! The house insinuated in my post was in Fosterbrook (certainly not prime Booterstown), listed at a bit over 900k and might be a little under 180m2!

The first response I got when I asked for feedback was - ‘yeah it’s quite nice....South Dublin really is mad money though’. Not the type of response you want when looking to at a house that’s nearly €1m!

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

You ain’t gettin 180m2 in booterstown for €900k!

Speaking of north Wicklow how long have you lived there? Do you think it is becoming or there is a risk of being over developed?

Brought up in North Wicklow, left Ireland after college, missed all the excitement of the boom years, moved back to Ireland in 2012 and been living here since then.

There's definitely a risk of overdevelopment, but no more than anywhere else. In the case of Greystones I think it is a well identified enough risk that it will be managed well. Definitely no shortage of amenities/infrastructure. It's definitely overdeveloped in terms of coffee shops, but presumably that will correct itself in time!

Interestingly I read recently that Charlesland golf course has shut for good, so no doubt all that land will be developed. I suspect it will be earmarked to futureproof amenities and infrastructure as well as housing. They could make something very special as a seaside recreational space there too.

What is very noticeable is that it is a young town. A lot of young families/young children which is a nice vibe if you're at that stage of life yourself. This is why I have posted a few times about who is going to buy the semi ds in Goatstown etc. If young buyers - i.e current generation - are turning their back on them in favour of places like Greystones, they are going to stay in these places. Can guarantee you nobody who is living here is thinking I cannot wait until I can afford to trade up to a semi d in Goatstown/Booterstown/Dundrum wherever.

The longer current prices are maintained/rise, the more towns like Greystones get traction, and people get settled, and the less inclined they are to leave.

So it is left to future cohorts of FTBers/trader uppers - but at current prices where is that market going to come from?

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Completely agree re. It being self reinforcing - every viewing we went in to in SCD after visiting our friends house in Wicklow became a bitter disappointment against our new point of comparison.

Looking forward to your house coming on sale - there is a serious lack of them at the moment!

Where is your friend's new house?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Brought up in North Wicklow, left Ireland after college, missed all the excitement of the boom years, moved back to Ireland in 2012 and been living here since then.

There's definitely a risk of overdevelopment, but no more than anywhere else. In the case of Greystones I think it is a well identified enough risk that it will be managed well. Definitely no shortage of amenities/infrastructure. It's definitely overdeveloped in terms of coffee shops, but presumably that will correct itself in time!

Interestingly I read recently that Charlesland golf course has shut for good, so no doubt all that land will be developed. I suspect it will be earmarked to futureproof amenities and infrastructure as well as housing. They could make something very special as a seaside recreational space there too.

What is very noticeable is that it is a young town. A lot of young families/young children which is a nice vibe if you're at that stage of life yourself. This is why I have posted a few times about who is going to buy the semi ds in Goatstown etc. If young buyers - i.e current generation - are turning their back on them in favour of places like Greystones, they are going to stay in these places. Can guarantee you nobody who is living here is thinking I cannot wait until I can afford to trade up to a semi d in Goatstown/Booterstown/Dundrum wherever.

The longer current prices are maintained/rise, the more towns like Greystones get traction, and people get settled, and the less inclined they are to leave.

So it is left to future cohorts of FTBers/trader uppers - but at current prices where is that market going to come from?

It is nice, my friends moved down 2 years ago to try it out and have recently bought. They like the atmosphere, reasons for moving were lifestyle and not affordability.
Only concern would be having too much confidence in planners to manage it properly.... will infrastructure - schools, transport etc - keep up with demand? Especially when Starbucks opens, there will be a stampede out of Dublin.
I think affordability, although very important, shouldn’t be the sole determining factor when looking for somewhere to live.

Reins

Paragraph from the Irish times that Idbatterim linked

" Mr Cassidy said both factors were likely to place upward pressure on house prices. “We already have a shortage of housing, so this is exacerbating a pre-existing problem,” he said.

However, he said there were offsetting factors, which could work in the opposite direction, such as unemployment and the uncertainty around future income, which would make it more difficult for buyers to secure a mortgage. Typically demand for housing falls when unemployment rises. "

Going forward do posters see a liklihood of mortgages being harder to secure?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

It is nice, my friends moved down 2 years ago to try it out and have recently bought. They like the atmosphere, reasons for moving were lifestyle and not affordability.
Only concern would be having too much confidence in planners to manage it properly.... will infrastructure - schools, transport etc - keep up with demand? Especially when Starbucks opens, there will be a stampede out of Dublin.

Schools currently a problem, but no more so than many parts of Dublin, and rumour has it there are more in the pipeline. I think it stands a better chance than most places of being managed well - three out of five of Wicklow TDs, two ministers, live in Greystones. (though I suspect one will be toast at next election!)

Hubertj wrote: »

I think affordability, although very important, shouldn’t be the sole determining factor when looking for somewhere to live.

For sure, but that advice tends to be most valuable to people who don't have affordability issues in the first place! For those that do, it is the one area that you don't have any leeway with!

ebayissues

Working 1/2 days per week won't make me change my attitude to living within close proximity to city, i.e Clontarf, Raheny, Ballsbridge etc. It just won't.

If I could work one week at home and the other week in work, then maybe.

Covid is not here to stay, once it goes things will be back to normal and employees will be wanting to get back to work. Young people wanting to go out to party, travel, restaurants making up for most time.

Those buying far houses out in the middle of nowhere based on covid which is short term will likely regret in a couple of years.

If there was better transportation infrastructure, it would even make the reason more compelling but there isn't.

I've friends who live in Lucan and the commute to Dublin is a ****ing joke.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

<SNIP>

Dublin is riddled with vacancies and the number is rising. Bit odd, as it is not what you'd expect in a housing crisis, but there you go.

Your Census reported decrease of vacancy between 2016 and 2011. There was no update since 2016 as far as I know.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Your Census reported decrease of vacancy between 2016 and 2011. There was no update since 2016 as far as I know.

It’s your census too.

Geodirectory reporting rising vacancy numbers in Dublin.

Timing belt

Reins wrote: »

Paragraph from the Irish times that Idbatterim linked

" Mr Cassidy said both factors were likely to place upward pressure on house prices. “We already have a shortage of housing, so this is exacerbating a pre-existing problem,” he said.

However, he said there were offsetting factors, which could work in the opposite direction, such as unemployment and the uncertainty around future income, which would make it more difficult for buyers to secure a mortgage. Typically demand for housing falls when unemployment rises. "

Going forward do posters see a liklihood of mortgages being harder to secure?

If you would get a mortgage today and nothing changes in your personal circumstances then you will get a mortgage going forward. If however there is uncertainty about your employment or even your employer then you might have difficulty securing a mortgage but this is to be expected.

There is talk about tightening credit standards by the banks across Europe but that is mainly been driven by a few countries where they have relaxed lending Criteria over the past few years. Ireland because of the CBI rules do not need to tighten credit standards in the same way as some of their EU counterparts.

When unemployment is on the rise people tend to put off big decisions like buying a house and tend to increase their savings as they are unsure as to what the future brings.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

It’s your census too.

Geodirectory reporting rising vacancy numbers in Dublin.

Last time you wasn't happy with Geodirectory number, thus you had a need to recalculate it to fit your purpose.
1.3% vacancy, is not massive vacancy by any measures.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Last time you wasn't happy with Geodirectory number, thus you had a need to recalculate it to fit your purpose.
1.3% vacancy, is not massive vacancy by any measures.

Nonsense.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

It’s your census too.

Geodirectory reporting rising vacancy numbers in Dublin.

Yes the vacancy no's for Dublin have increased by massive 0.1% in the year up-to June 2020

Vacancy rates
The average vacancy rate across the State was 4.5% in June 2020, down 0.3 ppts from the corresponding rate in June 2019.
• In 25 of the 26 counties, residential vacancy rates declined in the 12
months to June 2020. Dublin was the exception, where vacancy rates rose marginally by 0.1 ppts.
• Despite the increase, Dublin continued to have the lowest vacancy rates
in the State at 1.3%, followed by Kildare (2.0%) and Wicklow (2.9%). All three Counties are within the Greater Dublin Area.
• Leitrim recorded the highest vacancy rate at 14.6%, although it declined by 0.6ppts year-on-year. After Leitrim, Roscommon (12.6%) and Mayo (12.5%) recorded the next highest vacancy rates. All three counties are in Connacht, the province which had the highest vacancy rates (9.6%) in June 2020.
• Leinster continues to have the lowest average vacancy rate at 2.3%. Just two of the 14 counties that recorded vacancy rates above the national average were in Leinster.

*Vacant addresses as a proportion of total residential stock, excluding buildings under construction
Source: https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE