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Claim: 'Kyiv is the mother of all Russian Cities'

11617181921

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,247 ✭✭✭stevejazzx


    robindch wrote: »
    As I mentioned above somewhere, you set a low bar indeed for public discourse if it's no higher than "Well, hey, look! Nobody was murdered" (which is not true either, but let's not go there).While I've little interest in taking up this conversation again, I really do have to respond to this comment.

    As with much of your input to this thread, I fail to understand what you mean here since Phillips' cock-eyed, "shove a video camera in front of angry people" style of media output would be laughable, were it not apparently treated as serious commentary by many. I'm sure you're fully aware that Phillips does not criticize, in any meaningful sense, the hand that feeds him. And as I lack the time and the interest in lacerating his vile output (as for example, Max Seddon has done; btw, Seddon's report was published before Phillips published some weeks ago videos of the corpses of naked, elderly men and women which I will not link to) all I've time to do here is dip into what he's done recently and see if we can get a flavour and -- lo! -- here's one from yesterday in which he shouts "UKROP!" (an insult used by pro-Russians to describe Ukrainian troops) while shooting a gun. Does he really appear to you as a reliable source of unbiased information?

    And just scanning the feeds, briefly, I see that Alexander Zakharchenko, the self-appointed leader of the DPR explained today that he intends to restart the war again with a view to capturing Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and especially Mariupol which would give Putin the land bridge he needs to occupied Crimea. If this happens, I trust the Russian media, and no doubt Phillips, will describe Zakharchenko as a brave man fighting against Nazis in Kiev, rather than as the homicidal war criminal he is.

    I can certainly accept these criticisms of Phillips as outlined.
    However I have seen very little evidence to dispute his reporting from Crimea and polls suggests that the vast majority of Crimean people are happy with rejoining Russia.
    Importantly the OP of this thread set out, it appears to me, to state that the Crimean people had a right to self determination. Despite the outrageous propaganda from the Kiev and the West Russia's intervention in Crimea was a peaceful one - its almost impossible to dispute this now.
    Meanwhile in Eastern Ukraine the Kiev military have been using cluster bombs on their own people. People described by western media as separatists, terrorists or simply Russian or pro Russian in a feeble attempt to dehumanize the people it intends to bombs.
    The fact of the matter is, and this is not up for discussion, that Ukraine is undergoing a civil war in the East. Ukrainians are fighting Ukrainians - the other uncomfortable fact is that Eastern Ukraine happens to be composed of a largely pro Russian people and indeed people of Russian ethnicity. The fact that Russians are involved or indeed even Putin is hardly surprising. What is surprising is the immense twisted view put out by the west that Russia started this (which just like the Georgian affair they didn't) and how people have lined up behind it despite constant contradictions and obvious undeclared (although nevertheless transparent) conflicts of interest in the region. Indeed propaganda works both ways but just a year ago Putin was writing OP Eds in the NYT and his face was on the cover of Time Magazine (in all Continents except the US) - Americans essentially were united against the Syrian war despite Obama's pleading and unsubstantiated chemical weapons reports that were too similar to the WMD plea. A year later and the US is liberating another Arab country and Putin is Hitler. I would very kindly suggest anyone who believes this narrative should grow up.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    stevejazzx wrote: »
    [...]the vast majority of Crimean people are happy with rejoining Russia. [...]
    Some are. Many are not. But the happiness of some does not excuse invasion, fake referendums, theft, then the destabilization, war, torture and death that followed from it.

    I can't help but wonder how you'd feel if somebody valuable to you were kidnapped and some people justified the kidnap saying that "hey, look, but the person kidnapped is happy".

    There are larger things at stake here than the superficial happiness of a number of propagandized people.

    I'm happy to hear that you accept my criticisms of Phillips vile propaganda.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,247 ✭✭✭stevejazzx


    robindch wrote: »
    Some are. Many are not. But the happiness of some does not excuse invasion,

    90+% are
    If we're dealing in democracies then that's ok with me.

    robindch wrote:
    fake referendums, theft, then the destabilization,

    In what way fake when it aligns with every poll in the aftermath? Fake as in not believable but in line with what Crimeans had already expressed in the 1991 vote or expressed afterwards in polls.
    Destabilization? How? The Russian army brought with it peace in the region of Crimea. Again I reiterate no one was killed in this so called 'invasion' from troops who mostly were already stationed in country.

    robindch wrote:
    war, torture and death [/B]that followed from it.

    This is where I lose you.
    War torture and death were already in play from Kiev. Crimea was a direct knock on effect of a western backed revolt in Kiev.
    In my opinion its incredibly disingenuous or simply uninformed to believe otherwise.
    Also war torture and death never happened in Crimea so using it invoke the entire affair is putting the cart before the horse quite emphatically.

    robindch wrote:
    I can't help but wonder how you'd feel if somebody valuable to you were kidnapped and some people justified the kidnap saying that "hey, look, but the person kidnapped is happy".

    You believe the Crimeans are suffering from a collective country wide bout of Stockholm syndrome then, is that it? How do you explain the 1991 vote?
    Robin I've been to Crimea many times - in what reality do you make these statements? As I have already pointed out to you a large number of Crimean people are ethnically Russian - you disagreed at the time if I recall and that was well, unfortunate. Now you believe Russians have Kidnapped Russians and are superficially happy among other Russians?
    That is I must say an unusual take on the affair.

    robindch wrote:
    There are larger things at stake here than the superficial happiness of a number of propagandized people.

    And presumably this large number of propagandized people is Crimea and somehow excludes the blinking masses in the west?
    I don't know how to deal with such broad sweeping generalizations made without the consideration of any opposing narratives like there are none. Breathtaking.
    Robindch wrote:
    I'm happy to hear that you accept my criticisms of Phillips vile propaganda.

    What I was accepting was his apparent bias. The article form buzzfeed seemed more of a general character assignation and smear campaign so I didn't read it. As for his vile propaganda I would've preferred it if you had of simply linked a distinct and isolated example and showed it rebuked in context just like I did with Sirkorsky now on two occasions. It is of far more concern to me when someone like Sikorsky makes outlandish and downright false claims about Putin on the possible brink of all out war than it is the affairs of an ex blogger in Amsterdam.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    stevejazzx wrote: »
    The Russian army brought with it peace in the region of Crimea.
    There was no conflict in Crimea, or indeed in Ukraine, before Russia invaded Crimea directly, then indirectly in East Ukraine.

    I've debunked most of the remainder of your post on previous occasions including the "western backed revolt" nonsense so no point in debunking it again.

    As you no doubt know, I was there and I saw it, so I trust you'll forgive me if I trust the evidence of my own eyes and ears above your thoroughly inaccurate second or third-hand pseudo-information which, frankly, fits better over in the paranoid conspiracy forum - or indeed, on mainstream Russian telly :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,247 ✭✭✭stevejazzx


    robindch wrote: »
    There was no conflict in Crimea, or indeed in Ukraine, before Russia invaded Crimea directly, then indirectly in East Ukraine.


    Pfft -
    A period of relative calm in the anti-government demonstrations ended abruptly on 18 February 2014, when protesters and police clashed. At least 82 people were killed over the following few days, including 13 policemen; more than 1,100 people were injured

    As to Crimea there were numerous skirmishes that were controlled by the Russian army. There a lots of testimony to this and that their presence prevented civil war there also. Hard to argue with now.

    robindch wrote:
    I've debunked most of the remainder of your post on previous occasions including the "western backed revolt" nonsense so no point in debunking it again.

    As you no doubt know, I was there and I saw it, so I trust you'll forgive me if I trust the evidence of my own eyes and ears above your thoroughly inaccurate second or third-hand pseudo-information which, frankly, fits better over in the paranoid conspiracy forum - or indeed, on mainstream Russian telly :rolleyes:

    The fact that you believe that as one lone Irish man in the midst of this complex international dispute and revolution that you absorbed the climate and inner workings of the entire affair to such an extent that you can now claim some kind of monopoly on its reality is testament enough to your delusion. I would never dare - if anything the lone voice of he who knows the truth is more suited to the CT world than that which implores understanding.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    robindch wrote: »
    There are larger things at stake here than the superficial happiness of a number of propagandized people.
    That's the most undemocratic thing I've heard in a long time. Is it your own line, or did you hear it from some arch-villain in a Bond movie?


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,820 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    recedite wrote: »
    That's the most undemocratic thing I've heard in a long time. Is it your own line, or did you hear it from some arch-villain in a Bond movie?
    Just so we're clear: you're arguing that if a majority want something, it's unequivocally and unarguably right?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    No, but it is called democracy.
    It would be a strange sort of imperialist/colonialist attitude, and very condescending, that would say "You people don't know what's good for you. I'll decide what's best for you."


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    stevejazzx wrote: »
    A period of relative calm in the anti-government demonstrations ended abruptly on 18 February 2014, when protesters and police clashed.
    Yes, I happened to see it myself and remember it reasonably well - stone throwing, rubber bullets, flash grenades, heavy explosions, molotov cocktails, gunmen on both sides, badly wounded men and women.

    As for the date when Putin and his army got involved, well, perhaps best leave that up to the commemorative "Return of Crimea" medal he stamped and handed out - stamped 20th February.
    stevejazzx wrote: »
    The fact that you believe that as one lone Irish man in the midst of this complex international dispute and revolution that you absorbed the climate and inner workings of the entire affair to such an extent that you can now claim some kind of monopoly on its reality is testament enough to your delusion.
    Steve, you can perhaps understand when you reread sentences like this, why I've no further interest in discussing this topic with you.

    (a) because you appear to have great difficulty in processing what I write - in this case, I did not claim to be "one lone Irish man" with absolute knowledge (actually, I said that I trusted my own first-hand information more then your second-hand etc pseudo-information; FWIW, there are also a number of Irish people whom I know personally who are directly involved in this ongoing disaster who have vastly more experience and knowledge of it than I do) and (b) because you seem unable to discuss this without lobbing personal slurs around the place.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    recedite wrote: »
    That's the most undemocratic thing I've heard in a long time.
    When you put it in the context of what I actually said, it should appear a little less undemocratic - specifically, theft, invasion, destabilization, torture, kidnap, death and war are not excused because some people are happier now than they were some months ago.

    Do you think they are excused?
    recedite wrote: »
    It would be a strange sort of imperialist/colonialist attitude, and very condescending, that would say "You people don't know what's good for you. I'll decide what's best for you."
    You mean, a bit like Putin when he decided to invade Crimea and then East Ukraine?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,247 ✭✭✭stevejazzx


    robindch wrote: »
    Yes, I happened to see it myself and remember it reasonably well - stone throwing, rubber bullets, flash grenades, heavy explosions, molotov cocktails, gunmen on both sides, badly wounded men and women.

    As for the date when Putin and his army got involved, well, perhaps best leave that up to the commemorative "Return of Crimea" medal he stamped and handed out - stamped 20th February.

    You can't be serious.
    Is this how you wish to maintain your last argument that there was no violence in Ukraine before troops landed in Crimea?
    - nothing happened in Crimea until around 24th February after Yanukovych had fled.
    On 21 February 2014 President Viktor Yanukovych fled Kiev, the capital. The Ukrainian parliament deposed him the next day, and the next week appointed an interim President, Oleksandr Turchynov, and formed an interim government. The new government was recognized by the United States and European Union. Russia and a few other countries condemned the Turchynov government as illegitimate and the result of a coup d'etat. Russia accused the United States and EU of funding and directing the ouster of Yanukovych, maintaining he was illegally impeached and remained the president of Ukraine. Beginning on February 26, pro-Russian forces began to gradually take control of the Crimean peninsula. Media sources reported that military personnel in Russian-made uniform without insignia, and former members of the Ukraine military were involved.[40][41][42] While these troops were in Crimea, the Crimean parliament voted to dismiss the Crimean government, replace its Prime Minister, and call a referendum on Crimea's autonomy.[43][44][45]

    robindch wrote:
    Steve, you can perhaps understand when you reread sentences like this, why I've no further interest in discussing this topic with you.
    (a) because you appear to have great difficulty in processing what I write - in this case, I did not claim to be "one lone Irish man" with absolute knowledge

    So stop using the 'I was there' line as some kind of argument closer like you have been doing. If that's not what you are doing and it's just that you don't value my input then just say that as you are, whether you mean it or not, giving the impression that you have a monopoly on the reality of this situation.

    robindch wrote:
    (actually, I said that I trusted my own first-hand information more then your second-hand etc pseudo-information;

    The information that I have presented throughout the entire thread has been backed up (I am willing to wager I have a higher post link quota than anyone else here) and rarely if ever have I used a link from a site known to be sympathetic to the Russian viewpoint.

    robindch wrote:
    FWIW, there are also a number of Irish people whom I know personally who are directly involved in this ongoing disaster who have vastly more experience and knowledge of it than I do)

    Well why not get them to illustrate what you are having trouble doing.
    For example I see that Kiev experts are saying that the recent HWR reports of cluster bomb use by the Ukrainian army on its own people are incorrect.
    I see international experts cited by HWR saying that they are correct and noting that cluster bombs are illegal.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/21/world/ukraine-used-cluster-bombs-report-charges.html?_r=0


    robindch wrote:
    (b) because you seem unable to discuss this without lobbing personal slurs around the place.

    Hmm.
    You called my input 'pseudo information' and said I'd be better off in the CT forum (this is your second time saying that by the way) and dismissed everything I wrote saying you had already debunked it all.
    So lets be honest when we discuss personal slurs - I might even suggest in this most recent round that 'you started it'.:)


    By the way on the topic of conspiracy theories I think the mysterious Crimean medal qualifies. You can add it to Putins remarks about taking Kiev in a week, Sikorskys lie about him wanting to carve up Ukraine with Tusk, the Russian defense ministrys wesbites accidental leaking of the real referendum results in Crimea and Patriarch Krills Su-27.

    Most of the above, now utterly debunked, were linked by you.




    .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    robindch wrote: »
    .. I've no further interest in discussing this topic with you.

    (a) because you appear to have great difficulty in processing what I write - in this case, I did not claim to be "one lone Irish man" with absolute knowledge (actually, I said that I trusted my own first-hand information more then your second-hand etc pseudo-information; FWIW, there are also a number of Irish people whom I know personally who are directly involved in this ongoing disaster who have vastly more experience and knowledge of it than I do) and (b) because you seem unable to discuss this without lobbing personal slurs around the place.
    The irony meter explodes at this point ;)
    But at least you are consistent in lambasting anyone who disagrees with you, with an equal disdain..
    robindch wrote: »
    You don't seem to have any grasp of any of the facts concerning what happened during the period 17th February to the 22nd of February and I've explained what happened then often enough that I feel that repeating it again is likely to be wasted effort.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    With winter fast approaching, the time has come to see who will foot the bill for Ukraine's gas.
    As expected, Washington and Brussels seem to have mislaid their wallets.
    Kiev bombed the coalmines of Eastern Ukraine into oblivion during the summer, so that only leaves them with the empty ammunition crates to use for firewood.
    Germans have been very quiet about it all, I reckon they have been secretly building up a store of gas somewhere down south, just in case the pipeline gets turned off. Also they will still have some Russian gas coming in from the north, by-passing Ukraine.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,232 ✭✭✭Brian Shanahan


    recedite wrote: »
    With winter fast approaching, the time has come to see who will foot the bill for Ukraine's gas.
    As expected, I make a baseless assertion by citing an unreliable resource.

    FYP. Fortune, as is well known by all thinking people has as much editorial creditability as Der Sturmer or Der Volkischer Beobachter. It is an anti-science, anti-regulation, anti-climate change, anti-reality propoganda rag for the extreme rich.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    Seeing as you are so good at fixing things, Brian, maybe you should go over there and fix a deal for the full resumption of gas supplies? Because what's getting into the EU now will not be enough when the cold weather hits.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,247 ✭✭✭stevejazzx


    FYP. Fortune, as is well known by all thinking people has as much editorial creditability as Der Sturmer or Der Volkischer Beobachter. It is an anti-science, anti-regulation, anti-climate change, anti-reality propoganda rag for the extreme rich.

    Are you rebutting the article?
    I don't think Recedite was singing Fortunes praises by linking to a simple article.
    It just says the E.U has not of yet agreed to guarantee Ukraine's gas for the winter?


  • Site Banned Posts: 8,331 ✭✭✭Brown Bomber


    stevejazzx wrote: »
    A quick follow up on Sikorsky

    He has caused quite s stir this week when he was quoted as saying this

    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/10/polish-ex-minister-putin-offered-to-divide-ukraine-with-poland-in-2008/

    It was a tough claim to back up seeing as Putin and Tusk didn't meet at that time and that Sikorski wasn't present.

    Its a pity Sikorski was linked here earlier in the thread as some kind champion for the cause against Putin and its also a shame that those who think they're clued into western propaganda are the ones who use those links.


    B0fdZRgCAAAQ19-.jpg:large
    That is funny, but it shouldn't really be; not when these charlatans are playing with people's lives.

    I've just spent some time looking into the backgrounds of the people being voted into power in Ukraine and I am full of pessimism. So many Ultranationalists, "former" Nazis and far right extremists with their own private armies. There will be no end to the bloodshed as best as I can understand unless Ukraine is formally balkanised.

    Maybe someone can clear something up for me? Why is it that these far right lunatics such as Svoboda in Ukraine are so Pro Europe when there equivalents elsewhere in Europe, National Front, Golden Dawn and so on are fiercely anti-Europe?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    recedite wrote: »
    The irony meter explodes at this point
    There's a distinction, recedite, which your post indicates you may not always fully appreciate, between, on the one hand, one poster saying that a second poster "appears", "seems" (etc) to be doing or saying one thing or another - thereby leaving the second poster room to explain why the appearance that the first poster picked up is inaccurate or wrong. And on the other hand, one poster saying that a second suffers from some "delusion". The former is pointed, but polite and permits discussion to continue; the second is pointed and anti-social and shuts down debate.

    For myself, this entire topic, and the many, many inputs from many, many sources which inform and shape it, is fascinating and profound. And, IMHO, in the person of a man like VV Putin who appears to have been driven mad by power over the last year, and taken much of his country with him, poses arguably the greatest political threat the world currently faces. The topic does deserve serious treatment and a certainly little more honest debate and idea-planting and a little less mud-slinging.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Why is it that these far right lunatics such as Svoboda in Ukraine are so Pro Europe when there equivalents elsewhere in Europe, National Front, Golden Dawn and so on are fiercely anti-Europe?
    Interesting question.

    I suspect because (a) the majority of the "far right lunatics" in Svoboda are rather different to what they're portrayed as in Russian state-controlled media and its supporters; (b) FWIW, unlike Svoboda, the other far-right group, Pravii Sektor, is anti-EU; (c) they may be playing a long game in which they believe that their open support for the EU now will ensure that the EU will support them when they need support; and (d) the majority of the country wishes to join the EU and it's broadly perceived as a vote-winner; (e) most importantly, Svoboda know that they will have relative freedom to operate within an EU-style democratic system, unlike what is likely to happen to them if Russia launches a full-scale military invasion.

    Incidentally, exit polls in yesterday's parliamentary election suggest that support for Svoboda collapsed to around half what it was in the 2012 election. And having scored 0.7% in May's presidential election, Pravii Sektor - the stuff of Putin's most lurid nightmares to judge from the saturation coverage given by Russian media to its mostly insignificant activities over the last eight months - don't appear to have achieved much either.

    .


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    robindch wrote: »
    There's a distinction, recedite, which your post indicates you may not always fully appreciate..
    I accept your unpology :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    IMO the "far right" groups are better described as "ultra-nationalist" groups, and one of the important factors influencing their thinking is "my enemy's enemy is my friend".
    This would lead me to believe that Svoboda would be pro EU until such time as Ukraine was well established within it, and they no longer feared that the pro-Russia element of the population could re-establish ties with Russia. At that point they would become anti-EU, and instead seek complete national independence from everyone else.

    A related phenomenon is the absence of any major militant "right wing" ultra-nationalists in ROI, which seems to be largely due to the presence of right wing ultra-nationalists in NI (the loyalists) and in England. Our ultra-nationalists then feel they should be "left wing", just to be the opposite to their guys.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,190 ✭✭✭obplayer


    recedite wrote: »
    Seeing as you are so good at fixing things, Brian, maybe you should go over there and fix a deal for the full resumption of gas supplies? Because what's getting into the EU now will not be enough when the cold weather hits.

    From Russia Today...



    The wonders of capitalism.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    No contribution from USA towards this 3.1 Billion that will be paid over to Russia, and no mention of the terms for the EU money, so we can assume the EU contribution is only a loan, and has strings attached.
    The USA probably could not bring themselves to openly support paying that kind of money over to Putin, as it makes a mockery of the sanctions. On the other hand, they don't want to see the collapse of the Kiev regime just as it is getting established. So they must have nodded their approval to the IMF to pay over the money.

    The IMF knew all along that the money would have to be paid. From one of their memorandums of understanding with Ukraine;
    To ensure that the program remains fully financed and not subject to financing risks stemming from settling past gas import bills with Gazprom, we have set aside a substantial amount of funds to settle these bills, if and when such payments need to be made.

    In effect then, the citizens of Western Ukraine have taken on this extra debt without really being aware of it, and have ceded some more sovereignty to EU/IMF. The detail will be in the agreement they have just signed. And most importantly Germany and the EU will not be inconvenienced by an interruption to the gas supply.
    Like the Irish, the Ukrainians won't feel the pinch immediately; its only later on when all the extra taxes are being imposed (as in property tax and water charges in our case) that the citizens start protesting.
    I think it was around €80 Billion in debt the troika "helped" the Irish citizens to take on, which prevented the German banks and investors from losing anything, and restored confidence in the euro as a currency that does not default or devalue. Ironic that they used the Russian word "troika" when nationalising the debts of various failed capitalists within the EU and assigning the debt to Irish citizens.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,476 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Your post is ridiculous, this is not a new debt it is swapping a debt to Russia for a debt to the West. The gas having already been supplied was eventually going to have to be paid for one way or the other. The previous regimes should not have allowed gas debt to build up in the first place.

    This is not at all comparable to the conversion of private debt to sovereign debt in the Irish instance (which, anyway, occurred at the time of the guarantee not the bailout.)

    Scrap the cap!



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    It is only comparable in the sense that the country being "helped" will be paying back the debt, plus interest, over the following years. In other words, a net transfer of wealth from the "helped" country to the helpers.

    This particular gas debt was owed originally by the whole of the former Ukraine, including Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Now the smaller area, ie only that which participated in the recent elections, has accepted responsibility for the entire debt. Putin seems to have acknowledged this by allowing a slight discount to the original bill.

    Overrall I'd say Putin wins again; he gets paid what he was owed, in cash, up front, despite all the talk about "punishing Russia".


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,476 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    recedite wrote: »
    It is only comparable in the sense that the country being "helped" will be paying back the debt, plus interest, over the following years. In other words, a net transfer of wealth from the "helped" country to the helpers.

    A net transfer of wealth in the loan repayments, if you ignore the loan principal, yeah :rolleyes:

    This particular gas debt was owed originally by the whole of the former Ukraine, including Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Now the smaller area, ie only that which participated in the recent elections, has accepted responsibility for the entire debt. Putin seems to have acknowledged this by allowing a slight discount to the original bill.

    He's a good egg after all. What about the rent on the naval bases in Crimea he doesn't have to pay anymore, though?
    Overrall I'd say Putin wins again; he gets paid what he was owed, in cash, up front, despite all the talk about "punishing Russia".

    Not thrilled about this, but if it keeps the lights on in Ukraine and EU and if he can be persuaded to keep his troops within his own borders, it's probably worth it.

    Scrap the cap!



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Well, a quiet day down the forum and the first anniversary of the first Euromaidan protests in central Kiev, so here's a quick update for anybody who's not been following the unravelling sequence of events there.

    Ukraine proper held parliamentary elections on 26th October and the parties of the president, Petro Poroshenko, and the PM, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, polled ~44% between them, translating to 214 seats, just a little less than half of the 450 seat Rada. Today, these two parties joined in coalition with other pro-Western parties to form a 289-seat parliamentary majority.

    Between them, the far-right Svobodo (Freedom) and Right Sektor parties polled 6.5%, around half of what their joint total was in 2012, and took seven seats in the new parliament. With some relatively minor reservations, the OSCE reported that the election was generally free and fair. Polling did not take place in much of the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk.

    The Russian-backed gunmen currently controlling Luhansk and Donetsk held their own elections the following weekend. Two ballots were held in each separatist-controlled area - one for electing a "chief executive" and one for selecting the governing party. None of the usual Ukrainian parties was present on any of the ballot forms and in any case, political campaigning was, for the most part, prevented. The election wasn't without its farcical side - it was "observed" by a range of political figures from Europe's far right and validated by a group called the "ASCE" (either the Agency for Security and Co-operation in Europe" or the "Association for Security and Co-operation in Europe", as both forms were used). The ASCE had been created the day before the separatist elections, seemingly at a shambolic press-conference. One of the election monitors, a far-right Austrian named Ewald Stadler, was filmed in Donetsk observing the elections and suggesting that they were grand because the gunmen were outside the polling station, not inside - all the time apparently unaware that there was gunman standing right behind him. The results of the separatist election were almost certainly faked as anybody who calculates the results of the election to eight decimal places will immediately realize.

    The separatists [url=http://en.ria.ru/world/20141023/194479030/Donetsk-Forces-Plan-to-Retake-Slav
    iansk-Kramatorsk-Mariupol.html]indicated[/url] that they want to retake territory they've previously lost or never had - specifically Slavyansk and Mariupol, the latter - if it falls - providing Putin with the corridor he needs to supply Crimea in the absence of a bridge or sufficient ferry service connecting Kerch with the Russian mainland. Justice in the separatist-controlled areas appears to be by "people's courts" with several people reportedly having been condemned to death without the benefit of law. The Ukrainian government has stopped payments of benefits and other services to separatist-controlled areas, leaving the separatists in an unhappy position as they have no taxes and Russia, probably owing to the collapse of the ruble, appear to have little interest in taking up the slack. And generally, progress is being rolled way, way back - Aleks Mozgovoi, One of the senior separatists, said that women who go to cafes or clubs on their own will be arrested - "Women should be looking after the home [...] and sitting there, doing their knitting", he explained.

    Meanwhile, Putin has been pouring troops and weapons into the region (multiple reports, some from the OSCE of large numbers of "unmarked military vehicles"). Igor Girkin, a Muscovite working for Russian state security, yesterday claimed in an interview with Russian media, that he'd started the war in East Ukraine (English summary here). Elsewhere, a few interesting links - the Canadian foreign minister, John Baird, delivered a refreshingly straightforward analysis of what is going on. An report into how Russia is managing the banking system in Crimea. And how other industries are faring. Putin says there will be no "colored revolutions" in Russia.

    The most interesting report is from a range of people, all with first-hand experience of what's been happening in Ukraine over the last year, which documents Russia's propaganda war against Ukraine and the West. There's a video here and a corresponding written report which anybody with an interest in political propaganda will find fascinating.

    It's impossible to know where this will end up as the man who's running it all appears to be fully delusional with little or no recourse to law, logic or common sense. All the Ukrainians I've spoken with over the last few weeks believe it's going to turn into full-blown Russian-Ukrainian war. And while I think that's unlikely, I do certainly feel it's more likely to get worse in the short term, than get better.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    robindch wrote: »
    The results of the separatist election were almost certainly faked as anybody who calculates the results of the election to eight decimal places will immediately realize.
    Would you care to elaborate on what you mean by this claim?
    robindch wrote: »
    The separatists indicated that they want to retake territory they've previously lost or never had - specifically Slavyansk and Mariupol, the latter - if it falls - providing Putin with the corridor he needs to supply Crimea in the absence of a bridge or sufficient ferry service connecting Kerch with the Russian mainland.
    I already mentioned earlier in the thread that this is why the fighting was at its most fierce around Mariopol just before the Putin sponsored ceasefire was implemented. It would make their "Novorussia" ideal a stronger entity and more of a reality. But Putin does not support the separatists in trying to take territory from pro-Ukrainian regions, and has repeatedly said that both sides should lay down their arms. So he does not support them in this.

    robindch wrote: »
    Justice in the separatist-controlled areas appears to be by "people's courts" with several people reportedly having been condemned to death without the benefit of law.
    Same thing happened in Ireland in the 1920's; Republican courts operated in parallel with the Crown courts for a while. The former held sway in the southwest while the latter were still seen as legit by ordinary people closer to Dublin.

    robindch wrote: »
    ..the Canadian foreign minister, John Baird, delivered a refreshingly straightforward analysis of what is going on.
    Canada's involvement in Ukraine is not at all straightforward. They have sent shipments of what they call "non-lethal military equipment". What is Canada's interest in Ukraine?
    IMO their anti-Russian stance has nothing to do with sympathy for the Ukrainian people, but more to do with Canada's interest in the oil and mineral rights to the arctic. Now that global warming is opening up the region, they find themselves in competition for sovereignty with two major powers; Russia has a claim, and the USA has, via Alaska. The Scandinavian countries also have a claim, but they are seen as less influential, and are being persuaded that they are dependent on Nato for their security.
    In Baird's little speech he singles out and pays tribute to two prominent Baltic region politicians, and also the Dutch politician who is relatively unknown apart from his emotional (and some would say populist) speeches blaming Putin for the downing of flight MH17;There have been leaders who reacted to this campaign of smoke and mirrors with the firmness and clarity required. "I’d pay tribute in particular to people like Radoslaw Sikorski, Frans Timmermans, and Carl Bildt.
    But there is much to be done in separating truth from fiction."

    We already looked at Sikorsky earlier in this thread, he was basically sponsored by a US "think-tank" and probably the CIA during his whole career, for the purposes of removing any remaining Russian influences in Poland and replacing them with US/Nato influences.
    Carl Biltd is more his own man. They like him because he has taken a strong and vocal Nato position on Kosovo, South Ossetia and Ukraine, even though to do so requires a hypocritical stance on the central issue of whether a small nation has a right to secede from a larger one. He is also a man with extensive privately held oil and gas interests.


    robindch wrote: »
    You have linked to a number of these "news reports" coming from a Ukraine propaganda source.
    What they are actually saying in this report is that Ukrainian banks are refusing to give back the money deposited by people in Crimea. This is apparently in retaliation for the loss of their property (the branch network there) and they are telling their former customers to seek compensation from Russia or the Russian banking system.
    The sensible thing for Putin to do in this situation would be to introduce a bank guarantee for retail deposits up to a certain amount, and then "burn" those commercial investors holding bonds in Ukrainian banks which are not being honoured by those banks.
    robindch wrote: »
    The most interesting report is from a range of people, all with first-hand experience of what's been happening in Ukraine over the last year, which documents Russia's propaganda war against Ukraine and the West. There's a video here and a corresponding written report which anybody with an interest in political propaganda will find fascinating.
    I find it fascinating that a New York based "think-tank" whose purpose is to put out anti-Russian propaganda can print the following, apparently without a hint of irony, under the bizarre title
    "the Weaponization of Culture and Ideas "
    Re-establishing Transparency and Integrity in the Expert Community:
    Self-disclosure of funding by think tanks and a charter identifying clear
    lines between funders and research would be a first step in helping the sector regulate itself and re-establish faith in its output.
    It seems they are actually referring to "Putin's Russia", and not to themselves :pac:


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,820 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    recedite wrote: »
    You have linked to a number of these "news reports" coming from a Ukraine propaganda source.
    Reuters is a Ukraine propaganda source? :confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    Not Reuters, no. Was this the original link in your post Robinch?
    Either way, my point is that although the both the Reuters and the Ukrainian information agency reports are fact based, they somehow seem to gloss over the fact that it is the Ukrainian banks that are holding onto the Crimean depositors money, not Putin.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,247 ✭✭✭stevejazzx


    robindch wrote: »

    The most interesting report is from a range of people, all with first-hand experience of what's been happening in Ukraine over the last year, which documents Russia's propaganda war against Ukraine and the West. There's a video here and a corresponding written report which anybody with an interest in political propaganda will find fascinating.

    It's impossible to know where this will end up as the man who's running it all appears to be fully delusional with little or no recourse to law, logic or common sense. All the Ukrainians I've spoken with over the last few weeks believe it's going to turn into full-blown Russian-Ukrainian war. And while I think that's unlikely, I do certainly feel it's more likely to get worse in the short term, than get better.

    While I disagreed intensely with majority of your post above the link to the Legatum Institute and its accompanying video were the ‘proverbial straw’.
    In its defence it does state upfront that it is conducted in cooperation with the Atlantic Council and the US Department of State (which obviously renders it immediately biased and somewhat inconsequential and irrelevant) - nonetheless let’s examine their claims.

    There were innumerable clangers throughout this painful 45 minute back patting session so the following are just the ones I can recall offhand.
    1/3 of Russian GDP is fritted away by bribery?
    No source (he claims an independent monitor) Hmmm let’s see…*googles*
    Here’s that independent monitor: Christian Science Monitor (I’ll have a tough time taking them seriously)
    Here’s what they've.. ahem.. 'monitored': it’s a quote based on an estimate.
    We estimate that businesses must add up to 40 percent to their production costs,” due to the toll of bribery, official extortion and economic crime,”

    Now I obviously don't claim there’s no bribery in Russia but with reporting like this how could anyone take this panel seriously and Michael was introduced as our ‘go to’ guy on the Ukraine…oh dear.

    He goes on to state that journalists should endeavour to
    Dig up dirt on Putin’s wealth

    ...and that libel laws should be eased to allow them to do so. Conversely he goes on to state that it is ‘white shoe law firms’ who are preventing a lot of good stories from making it onto the printing presses. Surely he doesn't mean Russian White shoe law Firms?

    After this he touches on an interesting point - the proliferation of Russian espionage and how it has really reached new heights. Well perhaps this is true but could anything even come close to or eclipse what we now know re: the NSA bugging of French, Italian and German Diplomats? It has been shown that at the very highest levels internationally the USA has been bugging its diplomatic counterweights in the most outrageous display of subterfuge and hostility towards supposed partner countries ever recorded. The allegations and indeed hard evidence of this scandal as everyone is now aware extend right across the globe, its scope incomparable to any other spy activity we have ever seen. And yet here sits with the most brazen audacity five neo-con, right wing, new millennium tink tankers who claim that they are only trying to protect us from Russian subterfuge with not even one mention of their own sides embarrassing and shameful record – Pomerantsev even reckons that Western powers should be able moderate the news with their own custom crafted stamp of media transparency. Incredible.

    Speaking of Pomerantsev, he claims that RT put out a story claiming that the bodies from MH17 were already dead. I googled this and couldn't verify that RT put out this story first? I can find the Daily Mail reporting and citing a Russian rebel website and our good friend, the much quoted, Mr. Strelkov Girkin who of course while speaking directly on behalf of the Kremlin made sure to note his joy at downing a western airplane filled with innocent civilians. It strikes me as odd that Mr. Girkin is laughed out of town one minute for claiming the bodies were already decomposed but then taken very seriously when he makes the even more outstanding claim that of the whole eastern conflict is on him. Something is not quite right here – early on there was much speculation regarding this mans real identify and ultimate affiliations - either way Pomerantsevs claim is totally inaccurate.
    Pomerantsev also reckons there should be public information campaigns in the Baltics to educate people as to the dangers Russian propaganda – thereby directly and openly suggesting to cure one type of propaganda with another type again without the merest hint of hypocrisy. Incredible.

    Pomerantsev is also the only panellist to use a Russian word - Дезинформаци – in an apparent attempt to make himself appear more credible. The spoken word being so close to its English pronunciation – disinformation – that the opposite effect was rendered. I got the distinct impression that I was listening to bunch of ardent amateurs rather the any type of academic, intellectual, specialist or regional expert. It was quite depressing actually.

    This brings us onto Oleksander Scherba – who was about as eloquent and as clear as a wounded ape. He has apparently seen Christopher Nolan’s great movie…. ‘Perception??’. He then goes on to describe the word ‘inception’ without managing to remind himself of the actual name of the movie and or its central theme. Now I don’t know if he was just nervous, (after all he is the team’s poster boy for Ukrainian crisis and Applebaum is evidently uneasy while he is speaking) or if he was just reading prescribed notes from his ipad and really didn’t know what he was doing or saying. Regardless his dire contribution continues informing us that the horrors of Russian propaganda climaxes somewhere around the idea of intimating Ukrainians by telling them everyone in the EU is either gay or a gay sympathiser. Despite his dismal testimony he does however reveal the real reason for Moscow’s intense effort at combating Western propaganda when sometime around 35.55 mark he says – “The Russians are deeply convinced that the outside is so sinister that they can’t accept any rules” This is as close as anyone on the panel comes to telling the truth. Unfortunately Scerba goes on to make the totally unsubstantiated claim that 90% of all Russian people state that what was great about the Soviet Union was it capacity to be feared? Em… Source please??? Or has this freakish roadshow just descended into the ‘I’m gonna pull some stuff from the ether and present it as fact similar to the kind of strained monologues that we are so used to hearing form our religious scientist friends? Well…apparently so.

    Pyatt doesn’t spend long talking but with what little time he does use up he makes sure that it’s not only contentious but, as is the fashion at this event, astronomically hypocritical. None so more than when he claims that the US and EU share the same ‘strategic concerns’ regarding the Ukraine. Perhaps Pyatt had simply forgot his Washington colleague’s now infamous and colourful remark regarding the EU at the height of the crisis? Or perhaps he is being a diplomat and well, bending the truth a little to cover over the well ingrained tracks left behind after the US had to, as is nearly always the case, steamroll through its objectives regarding the Ukraine crisis in precisely the same manner it made France retract its ‘Mistral’ sale to Russia or leaned on Merkel over sanctions.
    Pyatts claims that the story of US mercenary troops in Ukraine essentially started with RT (The Blackwater story) and then filtered down to other news agencies is also hard to substantiate. Again after a quick google I find the story first reported by the Daily Mail citing YouTube videos, incidentally the evidence of American Mercenaries in Ukraine is considerable and certainly can’t be airily dismissed.
    More claims now – that all west Ukrainian media (tv & radio) content is off the air in Eastern Ukraine? From asking a few friends this does not appear to be the case. At this point I give up – even ignoring the huge elephant in the room and trying to take these people at face value proves impossible. The fact that Applebaum and her estranged husband are most likely entwined in US intelligence and are openly self-professed militant ‘anti Puintites’ doesn’t help. We may as well hear from God as to why Satan is bad. A quite ridiculous sham of a video if I have ever seen one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 963 ✭✭✭RobertJR


    What's the latest here 3 years later..?
    The nutshell version, not the I'll be reading for a week version...
    Thanks


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    I still have the mental scars from this thread.
    If there's a nutshell version it'll be like that Halloween brazil nut that still sits on the kitchen table in December, mocking everyone that passes, and defying all attempts to be cracked open.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 963 ✭✭✭RobertJR


    recedite wrote: »
    I still have the mental scars from this thread.
    If there's a nutshell version it'll be like that Halloween brazil nut that still sits on the kitchen table in December, mocking everyone that passes, and defying all attempts to be cracked open.

    So its still ongoing..?
    And which side of the debate lol, I mean arguing here turned out to be right..?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,476 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    The putinbots put up an impressive showing for a while, but ultimately withdrew.

    Scrap the cap!



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,812 Mod ✭✭✭✭riffmongous


    RobertJR wrote: »
    So its still ongoing..?
    And which side of the debate lol, I mean arguing here turned out to be right..?

    There are still daily exchanges of fire across the frontline with smaller weapons, with a handful of people wounded each day.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    RobertJR wrote: »
    And which side of the debate lol, I mean arguing here turned out to be right..?
    Well, three and a half years later, Crimea remains under the control of a country which, having organized and ran a fake referendum and accepted the 'secession' of Crimea, then hurriedly declared talk of 'secessionism' a criminal offence. Some of Crimea's citizens have been tortured, murdered or simply disappeared, many have been dispossessed of cash, assets or property, many more fear to return home, and most who've chosen to remain have been stripped of their citizenship. The region remains subject to western sanctions and its economy has declined sharply since its prosperous tourist industry collapsed.

    Putin also chose to instigate and fund a low level war in Eastern Ukraine which has left unknown numbers dead - believed to be in excess of ten thousand, and created a refugee problem which displaced around one and a half million people, the majority within Ukraine. The Donbass and Luhansk "People's Republics" are essentially lawless brush-war zones supported logistically, financially and militarily by Russia and they are run by criminals. Their feeble economies have also crashed. Most of the international community has accepted that MH17 was shot down by Russian hardware, almost certainly operated by serving Russian soldiers, but has chosen to ignore the fact.

    In terms of missed predictions - well, some people suggested that Putin might attempt further invasion of Ukraine in order to build a land bridge to Crimea, but stout, if sometimes patchy, Ukrainian defence, especially around Mariupol (which is still occasionally attacked by rocket) put an end to that idea. Instead, a construction company co-owned by Arkady Rotenberg, a personal friend of Putin and also subject to western sanctions, is building an enormous bridge to reach the troubled region instead.

    Relatedly, some of the multi-platform social and news media strategies which the Kremlin ran for Crimea and East Ukraine were repurposed and reused during recent votes in the USA, France, the Czech Republic, Catalonia and elsewhere.

    Ukraine itself continues to be traumatized place and its people are heartily sick of what Putin is doing to them and their country. Usage of the Russian language has declined substantially in most of the the country, though it's obviously still understood widely. Corruption remains a major problem in Ukraine, though small, positive steps are being made from time to time.

    In terms of the ongoing debate here and elsewhere, and unlike a few years back, most of the above is generally accepted - though not obviously or always in Russia and a small number of other like-minded places - and most of the (real) people who once happily promoted Kremlin-compliant propaganda lines, do so these days with little enthusiasm.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,247 ✭✭✭stevejazzx


    The putinbots put up an impressive showing for a while, but ultimately withdrew.

    Famous ‘Putinnbots’ like American Professor John Mearsheimer?
    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-18/why-ukraine-crisis-west-s-fault

    Or perhaps the Guardians Seamus Milne?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/05/clash-crimea-western-expansion-ukraine-fascists

    Maybe you mean the other American Professor, someone almost uniquely qualified to discuss the topic, Stephen F. Cohen?
    https://www.thenation.com/article/the-new-cold-war-is-already-more-dangerous-than-was-its-predecessor/

    Or perhaps that other famous ‘Putinbot’ Christopher Booker from the Telegraph?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10853278/The-EUs-to-blame-for-the-crisis-in-Ukraine.html
    There are so many more….
    On side note to the above comment; I thought we had risen above and moved beyond the adolescent term of Putinbot in this thread, apparently not – is this to be the standard? Seems disappointing and childish considering the long road to this page.
    It seems certain posters have had a really difficult time either a) following slightly complex arguments or b) believing in a corrupt west.

    .

    robindch wrote:
    Well, three and a half years later, Crimea remains under the control of a country which, having organized and ran a fake referendum and accepted the 'secession' of Crimea, then hurriedly declared talk of 'secessionism' a criminal offence.
    In relation to the referendum – it is widely believed that based on ethnicity (Crimea has 65% ethnic Russian population) and previous referendums that this motion would have passed.
    robindch wrote:
    Some of Crimea's citizens have been tortured, murdered or simply disappeared, many have been dispossessed of cash, assets or property, many more fear to return home, and most who've chosen to remain have been stripped of their citizenship.

    Russia are particularly brutal in dealing with any form of fundamentalism and revolt.
    I have seen stories regarding so called Islamic fundamentalists being arrested etc.
    The bulk of the testimony regarding human rights abuses, some no doubt true, do come unfortunately from Ukrainian sources in Ukraine delivered directly to the UN Human rights council in a kind of vague manner and don’t appear to the kind of Prima Facie evidence that might prove more convincing and overall don’t seem to support evidence of daily and/or widespread suppression that you seem to suggest.

    Indeed all of my prodding into the affair, including contact with people there, reveals again a much more nuanced situation as this article portrays quite well I think - it infers a kind of gloomy overtone and perhaps lack of full expression to Russian occupation yet relief at no war and a sense that things are actually getting done.
    Also I’d agree with Peter Hobson here -
    Form
    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/ilaria-parogni-/misunderstanding-crimea-west-russia_b_7073322.html

    Putin’s detractors use Russia’s treatment of minorities to support their tale of Russian aggression in Crimea, but the reality is more nuanced. Peter Hobson, a reporter for The Moscow Times, argues that Crimea is far from a terror state. “Nuland ignores the fact that Crimea’s accession to Russia reflects the desires of a majority of the population,” he wrote in a recent article. Hobson is right: ethnic Russians have long been the majority in Crimea. According to the first Ukrainian census of 2001, around 58 percent of the population of Crimea was ethnically Russian and only about 24 percent Ukrainian. A Gallup poll conducted in April 2014 shows that 82.8 percent of people in the peninsula thought the results of the 2014 referendum that prompted the annexation reflected the will of the people. In the referendum, which the West labelled illegal and tainted by irregularities, 97 percent of voters had supported leaving Ukraine to join Russia.

    And this is interesting although warrants a little further investigation
    https://sputniknews.com/russia/201710061058020094-crimea-nice-place-peace/
    article wrote:
    The delegation consisted of 11 people among them being politicians, deputies of local parliaments, businessmen and public figures from Norway and Germany. Norwegian parliament did not recommend its citizens to go to Crimea, however it did not prevent a visit of the delegation which is to end tomorrow, 12th of October.

    The above delegation (reportedly one of 100's who have visited since 2014) reported positively on the current situation in the Crimea.

    robindch wrote:
    Putin also chose to instigate and fund a low level war in Eastern Ukraine which has left unknown numbers dead - believed to be in excess of ten thousand, and created a refugee problem which displaced around one and a half million people, the majority within Ukraine.

    Putin 'instigated' is hardly an explanation or indeed a representation of what actually happened. Here’s some context starting from ~90-91 – obviously trimmed for the internets:

    • First came the collapse of the Soviet Union and a dramatically failed attempt (over the following years) at privatisation resulting in the creation of the oligarchy financed and supported by the west. (91-2001)
    • Second came the beginning of unwarranted NATO expansionism after the last of the Soviets pulled out of eastern Germany (94)
    • Third was the co-option of the Yeltsin presidency by the west (91-99)
    • Fourth was the rise of Putin (early 2000’s on)
    • Sixth (a result of historical investment) was the Orange Revolution (2004)
    • Seventh – Putin’s Munich speech in 2007 (2007)
    • Eight was a missile installation in Poland (2009)
    • Putin’s article in the NYT criticising the US re Syrian war attempt 1 in 2013
    (subsequently the US failed to gain public support for Syrain intervention)
    • Ninth – Ukraine’s failed deal with Russia and Europe (2013), the leaked Nuland call, and subsequent Maidan revolution that Putin saw as heavily western backed (2014)
    • Tenth – was the installation of illegal and unconstitutional interim government in Ukraine including the manipulation of Nationalist fringe parties who had seen direct support from Mssrs. McCain and Nuland on the ground.
    • Eleventh – was partial and effective civil war, in all but name, between the west and east after inevitable backlash from the east probably exacerbated and driven by propaganda from Russia
    • Twelfth – was Russian involvement and war with Ukraine.


    robindch wrote:
    In terms of missed predictions - well, some people suggested that Putin might attempt further invasion of Ukraine in order to build a land bridge to Crimea, but stout, if sometimes patchy, Ukrainian defence, especially around Mariupol (which is still occasionally attacked by rocket) put an end to that idea.

    So this prediction failed because of the surprising strength Ukrainian defences in the east? Are we really to accept that Russia couldn’t take Mariupol if they wanted?
    I am looking forward to the Russian invasion of the Baltics that has been promised for a while. The west would have no choice but to depose Putin if that were to happen. Problem solved.
    robindch wrote:
    Instead, a construction company co-owned by Arkady Rotenberg, a personal friend of Putin and also subject to western sanctions, is building an enormous bridge to reach the troubled region instead.

    Are we to understand from this that you believe Russia are building a 12mile bridge so they can better attack eastern Ukraine despite having a sizable border with them in the east anyway?
    robindch wrote:
    Ukraine itself continues to be traumatized place and its people are heartily sick of what Putin is doing to them and their country.
    In terms of how this started I would lay blame squarely at the feet of the Americans.
    A Russian-European partnership for the Ukraine had the best chance of reforming Russia while maintaining economic stability for Ukraine. In November 2013 Yanukovych requested more time to approve this deal – however he wanted to mould this deal more to Ukraine’s favour and reduce clauses pertaining to NATO. The US could see Putin’s hand in this and his overall strategy and feared an ongoing process would only benefit Putin so they worked behind the scenes to ensure that didn’t happen – Europe on the other hand was much more accommodating and was attempting to make this happen hence the famous ‘**** you’ remark - a direct reference to how inconvenient Europe was in relation to Ukraine.
    Remember before sanctions Russia was trading heavily with France & Germany, easing its independence on Oil and also gaining traction as a world power so in an interesting way Russia’s subsequent economic hardship has been a huge plus for the US.
    The US wanted, supported, and directly encouraged a Ukrainian revolution so they could control the narrative and process in the aftermath.
    Their (the US) disclosed investment in Ukraine since 1991 has been 5.1 Billion
    It was their long term plan since then.
    robindch wrote:

    Usage of the Russian language has declined substantially in most of the the country, though it's obviously still understood widely. Corruption remains a major problem in Ukraine, though small, positive steps are being made from time to time.

    Indeed, and the new and so called ‘Education Law’ has drawn concern and in some cases outrage from Hungary, Romania, Russia and even Poland however has been warmly accepted and supported by the United States.
    To me this appears quite retrograde almost like something Russia might do and I imagine must contravene some aspect of international law.
    robindch wrote:

    In terms of the ongoing debate here and elsewhere, and unlike a few years back, most of the above is generally accepted - though not obviously or always in Russia and a small number of other like-minded places - and most of the (real) people who once happily promoted Kremlin-compliant propaganda lines, do so these days with little enthusiasm.

    On the contrary, despite the current Russian hysteria in the US I am finding more and more scholars leaning towards a different viewpoint of what exactly happened in Ukraine. I am not saying these viewpoints are favourable to Putin (I don’t read that kind of viewpoint and for good reason as I am sure we’d all agree) they are however more nuanced and considered (as demonstrated in the articles linked in the beginning of this post).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,247 ✭✭✭stevejazzx


    RobertJR wrote: »
    What's the latest here 3 years later..?
    The nutshell version, not the I'll be reading for a week version...
    Thanks

    I apolgoise :)


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Schism!

    Since 2014, relations between the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Russian Orthodox Church have been frosty at best - not only because of Russia's double-invasion of its poorer neighbour or because the Russians have been [url=https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-struggling-to-believe-ukrainian-orthodox-church-in-crimea-struggles-to-survive/29175307.html
    ]handing over control of UOC land and buildings to the ROC[/url] and making life difficult for UOC religious and believers alike, but also because of the UOC's broad wish to move out of the ROC's orbit - a move the ROC is unhappy with.

    Sensing this unhappiness, the UOC appealed for support to the wider Orthodox church and, over the last while, it's become increasingly apparent that the Patriarch of Constantinople, Bartholomew I, is willing to provide it. Deciding to jump before it's pushed, the ROC is now doing the religious equivalent of cutting diplomatic ties with the Patriarchate.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45529355

    It's not known at this point, whether the ROC will continue the separation and become a fully independent church, but it's hard to see how the ROC could walk back on this split and equally hard to see why the Patriarchy would want them fully back in the first place.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    This guy gives the Russian orthodox view.




    Its not clear how many in Ukraine are part of the schismatic movement, which itself is rooted in right wing nationalism. Probably 50% or so.
    Also, the whole schism is based on the Ukrainian schismatic's desire for autocephaly, which is very slightly different to being an autonomous church within the ROC as they are now. It s perhaps similar to the oath of allegiance at the root of the Irish civil war in 1922 - a matter of less importance to Michael Collins who had fought the war of independence than it was to De Valera who had relocated to the USA during those tough times. These things mean everything to some people, and nothing to others.


    In any case the guy in Istanbul sees it as a way of making himself relevant, by asserting some sort of historical authority. In reality though, the orthodox christian population in Turkey has shrunk to a tiny fraction of a %.

    Somebody should tell him that Constantinople is now called Istanbul, and that he is the King of Nothing. His forbears failed to defend adequately against Islamic invasion. Then they watched powerlessly as their great cathedral, the Hagia Sophia, was converted into a mosque, and their people were gradually replaced. Centuries later, The Great Patriarch of Constantinople watched the Armenian Genocide when non-muslims were starved to death. And now this guy has the audacity to tell others what to do. He remains the titular head of the Orthodox church only as long as he keeps his head down and behaves himself, but it looks like those days have now come to an end.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    Is it necessary to be a Russophobe to be a modern Irish atheist?

    Asking for a friend.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,476 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Opposing Putin's kleptocracy is far from being a Russophobe.

    Scrap the cap!



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    [robindch, 21-11-2014 18:04] It's impossible to know where this will end up as the man who's running it all appears to be fully delusional [...] . All the Ukrainians I've spoken with over the last few weeks believe it's going to turn into full-blown Russian-Ukrainian war. And while I think that's unlikely, I do certainly feel it's more likely to get worse in the short term, than get better.

    Surprise, surprise - my friends in Ukraine understood their neighbours better than I did.

    Got a message from one of them last Sunday week - I'm finishing dinner with my own family, while he and his are sitting in a bomb shelter in Cherkassy, with explosions happening nearby.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,476 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Depressing seeing some of the absolute bilge posted on this topic by people who really really should have known better. I hope they now all feel suitably ashamed of themselves.

    Scrap the cap!



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch



    I hope they now all feel suitably ashamed of themselves.

    So far as I'm aware, the vast majority of the Russian-speaking community here in Ireland - Russians, Ukrainians, eastern Europeans in general - are as horrified at PTN's actions as everybody else is, and uniformly and universally condemn them. I have seen RU friends of mine at the protests over the last two weeks and that number is likely to increase as conditions within RU deteriorate and PTN's war against RU citizens accelerates.

    It is possible that a few still support PTN here in Ireland and my sincere wish for them is to take themselves and their idiot-level political opinions, say, to the huge bomb crater at the Maternity hospital in Mariupol, and stay there to consider the wisdom of their master's works.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,987 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Surely if there is a God who let this war start, why would praying to him now make him stop it?

    If I was in Ukraine now, I wouldn't be wasting my time praying, I'd be getting out of there.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Some of God's Russian representatives have expressed concern at the ongoing slaughter, though not any in Russia (that I've found yet). The description of the religious-political background to PTN's invasion is accurate.

    The support of many of the hierarchy of the Moscow Patriarchate for President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine is rooted in a form of Orthodox ethno-phyletist religious fundamentalism, totalitarian in character, called Русский Мир (Russkii mir, or the Russian world), a false teaching which is attracting many in the Orthodox Church and has even been taken up by the Far Right and Catholic and Protestant fundamentalists.




  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,420 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    RIA Novosti is part of the Russia Today [RT] stable and yesterday published the following article which, in essence, advocates for the mass execution of the Ukrainian army including all reservists (which is basically, all males between 18 - 60), most of the media in Ukraine and much of the Ukrainian educational infrastructure. It also demands that the population are used as forced labour to rebuild the country which PTN's forces have destroyed and, in all senses, promotes total ideological control of the civilian population and the installation of warlords and kangaroo courts.

    There's a lot more completely bonkers stuff in there and google-translate gives a good idea of exactly how far the Russian state has been enslaved and consumed by its own paranoia and propaganda. It also, by implication and no doubt unintentionally, points towards some possible futures for Russia itself.

    https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,476 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    A well-aimed drone strike would have made the world a better place.

    Of course what's usually not reported is that this is not a Ukranian grain through the Black Sea deal, this is a Ukranian and RUSSIAN grain through the Black Sea deal.

    Erdogan really is the lowest form of scum.

    Scrap the cap!



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