Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

fash · 22-10-2020 7:58pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

Do you actually believe it's only the UK press who indulges in drum banging propaganda?

Few places come anywhere close to the level of propaganda in the UK - certainly nowhere in Europe. Perhaps north korea.

beggars_bush · 22-10-2020 7:59pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you read the link,there will be 10,000 new permanant jobs

they don't offer living wage
zero hour contracts

listermint · 22-10-2020 7:59pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you read the link,there will be 10,000 new permanant jobs

You and I both know the sales boon is covid related and no in anyway related to a boom in retail or the greater UK economy. We can get into stats talk but I'd rather not because you have access to them yourself.

If you don't think tariffs are going to hurt the consumer in the UK then you don't understand trade agreements or brexit.

A daily mail article on a few warehouse Jobs does not a story make.

22-10-2020 8:01pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you read the link,there will be 10,000 new permanent jobs

As much to do with the change in shopping habits due to COVID but yes those jobs are likely to be there for the long term, more likely with the separation from the EU distribution chains.

strandroad · 22-10-2020 8:02pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you read the link,there will be 10,000 new permanant jobs

Taken from brick and mortar retailers this custom is redirected from.

listermint · 22-10-2020 8:03pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

As much to do with the change in shopping habits due to COVID but yes those jobs are likely to be there for the long term, more likely with the separation from the EU distribution chains.

Unlikely. Amazon don't offer permanent jobs in warehousing. It's zero hour contracts. These will be as long term as an ice-cream.

dogbert27 · 22-10-2020 8:05pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you read the link,there will be 10,000 new permanant jobs

As of September 09th there were nearly 125,000 retail job losses in the UK this year.

Amazon as a platform is replacing the high street so hiring less than 10% of positions lost in your sector is not something to blow a trumpet about.

I'm sure it will be spun as proof that Brexit will work. :rolleyes:

RobMc59 · 22-10-2020 8:09pm

dogbert27 wrote: »

As of September 09th there were nearly 125,000 retail job losses in the UK this year.

Amazon as a platform is replacing the high street so hiring less than 10% of positions lost in your sector is not something to blow a trumpet about.

I'm sure it will be spun as proof that Brexit will work. :rolleyes:

Of course none of these are covid related.:rolleyes:

Spanish Eyes · 22-10-2020 8:13pm

Could someone tell me what the impact of Amazon.uk orders into Ireland will be if there is no deal? Is it VAT, Customs, Tariffs all passed on to the Irish customer or what.

I've just opened an account with Amazon.de just in case. It makes sense to support the EU businesses now anyway. Will have a browse later to see what their product range is like. Good to hear others positive experience with the German arm anyway. Delivery charge and different plugs/voltage aside...

dogbert27 · 22-10-2020 8:15pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

Of course none of these are covid related.:rolleyes:

Of course these are covid related. But the businesses are now gone.

Habits are being replaced by Amazon.

These high street shops won't return to what they were. High street shops were already under pressure before covid and now they are being wiped out.

Where in the Brexit plan is the strategy for the UK economy from January 01st?

RobMc59 · 22-10-2020 8:19pm

dogbert27 wrote: »

Of course these are covid related. But the businesses are now gone.

Habits are being replaced by Amazon.

These high street shops won't return to what they were. High street shops were already under pressure before covid and now they are being wiped out.

Where in the Brexit plan is the strategy for the UK economy from January 01st?

Using the logic that brexit will mean amazon may expand in other EU countries will that affect high street shops there or does your theory only apply to the UK?

Capt'n Midnight · 22-10-2020 8:28pm

dogbert27 wrote: »

And in the middle of this it says that a think tank (CEBR) predicts up to 3 million unemployed by the end of the year.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8867355/Home-Secretary-Priti-Patel-overrules-immigration-experts-BLOCK-foreign-builders-UK.html

And Patel is standing up for the British "white van man" by blocking foreign brick layers and welders after December 31st.

Good luck with the cost of your projects over there then!

In totally unrelated news. Back in July the UK offered 2.9 million people in Hong Kong with British National Overseas Passports the right to come to the UK for five years.

Up to a million are expected to come with half a million in the first year.

listermint · 22-10-2020 8:31pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

Using the logic that brexit will mean amazon may expand in other EU countries will that affect high street shops there or does your theory only apply to the UK?

It only applies to the UK because consumers there will be bit twice.

First sterling devalued.

Second tariffs on all of their goods.

Third major loss of jobs including traditional high end ones in motor factories and even financial services in London. Migrated to Frankfurt or Dublin.

So yes. The UK.

dogbert27 · 22-10-2020 8:39pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

Using the logic that brexit will mean amazon may expand in other EU countries will that affect high street shops there or does your theory only apply to the UK?

Currently the UK has the most fulfilment and warehousing facilities in Europe and looks to keep expanding.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Amazon_locations

In an EU country there will be freedom of movement for workers to migrate to find work should they find themselves out of work in for example the retail sector due to an Amazon expansion.

If a UK retail employee is out of work after Brexit they will find it difficult without freedom of movement to find work elsewhere.

RobMc59 · 22-10-2020 8:42pm

listermint wrote: »

It only applies to the UK because consumers there will be bit twice.

First sterling devalued.

Second tariffs on all of their goods.

Third major loss of jobs including traditional high end ones in motor factories and even financial services in London. Migrated to Frankfurt or Dublin.

So yes. The UK.

Meanwhile EU carmakers want flexibility and are lobbying Monsieur Barnier.
https://www.politico.eu/article/carmakers-pressure-barnier-to-soften-brexit-electric-vehicle-stance/ as seen in this link.

Capt'n Midnight · 22-10-2020 9:19pm

Looks like the UK will be a nett contributor to the EU Horizon research programme of about £3Bn over the next seven years unless it ups it's game. Which should be dead easy once all those deadweight foreign researchers go home.

In order to receive an equivalent to £15bn in receipts, we need to win 16% of funding from the programme. We currently will win 12.7%

Good thing they have the old magic money tree eh ?

It's another cost of Brexit. Not huge but they all add up. And the whole point of Brexit was the UK was going to be more competitive once unshackled from the EU.

View · 22-10-2020 10:26pm

paul71 wrote: »

The UK press has absolutely zero reach outside the UK, except for Ireland. On the continent the only people reading it are the British retirees in Spain. Anywhere I have lived in Czech, Germany or France has absolutely no knowledge of the British Tabloid.

In places like Czech Republic, Poland or the French border regions you are far more likely to see "Bild" than any UK tabloid.

Again, I said U.K. press. I did not refer to U.K. Tabloids as the U.K. press is more than just their tabloids.

And, the U.K. press - ie including their non-tabloids - does have “reach” in EU countries both directly, via their papers/magazines on sale, and indirectly, via U.K. based journalists contributing articles which are picked up and printed by other papers. Then there is the issue of the European issues of many US magazines being largely produced in London which means that it’s the views of U.K. journalists being reproduced.

As such if it becomes “gospel” in London that they got one over on the EU, which “caved in” at the last moment - a fundamental part of Brexiters’ creed - that view will be reproduced from London and distributed far and wide, and it will play into the hands of domestic Eurosceptics in the EU countries with Ireland being particularly prone to being influenced due to the so-called “Irish” editions of U.K. papers.

Beechwoodspark · 22-10-2020 10:28pm

Looks like the Brits are finally being brought to heel and will pay dearly for the pleasure of it

Of course the daily boris will spin it 8 ways from Sunday to keep Doris and George in surrey happy

paul71 · 22-10-2020 10:43pm

View wrote: »

Again, I said U.K. press. I did not refer to U.K. Tabloids as the U.K. press is more than just their tabloids.

And, the U.K. press - ie including their non-tabloids - does have “reach” in EU countries both directly, via their papers/magazines on sale, and indirectly, via U.K. based journalists contributing articles which are picked up and printed by other papers. Then there is the issue of the European issues of many US magazines being largely produced in London which means that it’s the views of U.K. journalists being reproduced.

As such if it becomes “gospel” in London that they got one over on the EU, which “caved in” at the last moment - a fundamental part of Brexiters’ creed - that view will be reproduced from London and distributed far and wide, and it will play into the hands of domestic Eurosceptics in the EU countries with Ireland being particularly prone to being influenced due to the so-called “Irish” editions of U.K. papers.

That is a complete fabrication, the UK broadsheets don't sell in Europe any more than the Tabloids do. Want to take a guess why, because Germans read German papers, French read French papers, Poles read German or Polish papers and Czechs read Czech or German, for the same reason Irish read Irish or British ones.

Outside major tourist areas I have never seen a British broadsheet for sale, and I spent 10 years walking in and out of Newsagents everyday, across Northern France Southern Germany and the Czech Republic. If wanted to buy a British newspaper where I was based most of the time, I would have had to drive 100 miles to either Prague or Dresdan, and is the same across the entire continent.

J Mysterio · 22-10-2020 10:43pm

Starting to wonder if there might be a Northxit.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andy-burnham-tier-2-3-lockdown-manchester-london-rishi-sunak-job-support-b1222549.html

It's all falling apart. Brexit was tough enough on its own.

Rain Ascending · 22-10-2020 11:31pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Whether there is no-deal or just a thin trade deal of no tariffs and no quotas, then there will still be customs clearance and SPS requirements, together with cert of origin matters to comply with.

<<snip>>

They are too far down the road to avoid chaos in January - it might take a few weeks to get really bad, but it will get really bad really quickly - logistics will hit first, then the costs, then the economic costs then recession - probably in that order.

Who thought this Brexit lark was a good idea?

Frankly, I've very worried about what is going to happen in January. My concern is not the stuff everybody is worried about, but about the stuff that nobody is worried about. The complexity of systems and supply chains today is phenomenal. The supply chain for components in a complex system can be four or more levels deep. So a system integrator doing supply chain resiliency planning might ask their suppliers how good is their Brexit planning -- but are those suppliers asking the same questions of all their suppliers and so on? Due to Brexit-induced delays or blockages, something innocuous-looking could fall through the cracks and cause a critical systems failure.

Up until late last year, I would have assumed that in such a scenario, the UK government would have the mechanisms built in to intervene rapidly to limit damage. However, such is the incompetence of the current occupants of 10 Downing Street, I have little confidence that they will intervene in an effective manner. The machinery that Johnson has built up around him, taken to a great extent from the Vote Leave campaign, doesn't know how to handle a crisis. Their instinctive reaction is to bluster their way through ... after all in the run-up to a vote, you only need to be able to avoid doing anything until polling day.

Brexit has no polling day.

View · 23-10-2020 12:49am

paul71 wrote: »

That is a complete fabrication, the UK broadsheets don't sell in Europe any more than the Tabloids do. Want to take a guess why, because Germans read German papers, French read French papers, Poles read German or Polish papers and Czechs read Czech or German, for the same reason Irish read Irish or British ones.

Outside major tourist areas I have never seen a British broadsheet for sale, and I spent 10 years walking in and out of Newsagents everyday, across Northern France Southern Germany and the Czech Republic. If wanted to buy a British newspaper where I was based most of the time, I would have had to drive 100 miles to either Prague or Dresdan, and is the same across the entire continent.

I spent six years living in four different non-English speaking European countries and knew exactly where I could have bought British newspapers, had I wanted them, in all of them. Only one would have required me to travel a moderately far distance to buy them. Likewise for the (English language) European editions of US magazines.

reslfj · 23-10-2020 2:29am

paul71 wrote: »

In places like Czech Republic, Poland or the French border regions you are far more likely to see "Bild" than any UK tabloid.

Different, but not sure 'Bild' is much better.

Lars

Peregrinus · 23-10-2020 2:54am

View wrote: »

Again, I said U.K. press. I did not refer to U.K. Tabloids as the U.K. press is more than just their tabloids.

And, the U.K. press - ie including their non-tabloids - does have “reach” in EU countries both directly, via their papers/magazines on sale, and indirectly, via U.K. based journalists contributing articles which are picked up and printed by other papers. Then there is the issue of the European issues of many US magazines being largely produced in London which means that it’s the views of U.K. journalists being reproduced.

As such if it becomes “gospel” in London that they got one over on the EU, which “caved in” at the last moment - a fundamental part of Brexiters’ creed - that view will be reproduced from London and distributed far and wide, and it will play into the hands of domestic Eurosceptics in the EU countries with Ireland being particularly prone to being influenced due to the so-called “Irish” editions of U.K. papers.

I don't think so. The point is often made, when the UK government spins a particular Brexit line for domestic consumption, that people in the EU can read British newspapers too - i.e. they are aware when the UK says one thing at the negotiation table or in the agreements it signs and a completely different thing to its own voters/supporters.

But the conclusion is not that people in the EU believe what is said in the UK media; just that they know it's being said. They don't live in a bubble in which they are only exposed to the relentless, mendacious euroscepticism that characterises the Tory-supporting media in the UK, and are fundamentally conditioned by it. Eurosceptics in other EU countries may want their fellow-citizens to uncritically accept the nonsense printed in the Daily Express, but unless they can co-opt their own media into the same dishonest project they'll have their work cut out. Anyone with even a passing interest in Brexit can see why the UK government needs to spin any move it makes as a victory, regardless of whether it is or not. Thus the notion that they will uncritically accept what the Daily Express says while ignoring what their own media say is not a very plausible one.

fash · 23-10-2020 3:51am

View wrote: »

Again, I said U.K. press. I did not refer to U.K. Tabloids as the U.K. press is more than just their tabloids.

And, the U.K. press - ie including their non-tabloids - does have “reach” in EU countries both directly, via their papers/magazines on sale, and indirectly, via U.K. based journalists contributing articles which are picked up and printed by other papers. Then there is the issue of the European issues of many US magazines being largely produced in London which means that it’s the views of U.K. journalists being reproduced.

As such if it becomes “gospel” in London that they got one over on the EU, which “caved in” at the last moment - a fundamental part of Brexiters’ creed - that view will be reproduced from London and distributed far and wide, and it will play into the hands of domestic Eurosceptics in the EU countries with Ireland being particularly prone to being influenced due to the so-called “Irish” editions of U.K. papers.

I honestly think this is nonsense: in say 5 years time someone in some European country has to say "hey remember 5 years ago when the UK left, well a couple of weeks prior , the EU commission issues a poorly worded communique, then David Frost, who was the UK negotiator at the time, issued a grumpy communique threatening to break communications - and then Barnier, who was the EU negotiator at the time, totally caved by using the word "intensify" and "sovereignty" a lot - it was an amazing victory for the UK and the EU totally collapsed - we could be like that".

Don't you think they'll instead look at what happens in the UK? What happens to Kent? To food standards? To the economy?

Peregrinus · 23-10-2020 4:40am

RobMc59 wrote: »

Meanwhile EU carmakers want flexibility and are lobbying Monsieur Barnier.
https://www.politico.eu/article/carmakers-pressure-barnier-to-soften-brexit-electric-vehicle-stance/ as seen in this link.

Although not, sadly, in a way that helps the UK.

Barnier is proposing that, under the FTA, a car would qualify as made in UK (and therfore attracting zero tariff if imported to the EU) if 45% by value of the car originated in the UK, and a similar rule for cars qualifying as made in EU (and therfore qualifying for zero tariff in the UK).

In an EV, the battery represents 30%-50% of the value of the vehicle. But UK and EU import nearly all of their EV batteries from Asia.

The result is that it would be either impossible or very difficult for an EV to qualify as made in either market, unless it used a mid-range or low-range battery and every other component was sourced domestically.

UK wants a 70% threshold, so that they could spend 30-50% on the battery and 20-40% on other imported components and still have the car treated as "made in UK".

The EU industry is not supporting this; they are calling for a 50% threshhold, which would allow them to spend 30-50% on the battery and only 0-20% on other imported components.

It's obvious what's happening here. EU manufacturers can source virtually everything apart from the battery within the EU, so a 50% threshhold would allow them to produce "made in EU" EVs and import them tariff-free to the UK. But the UK auto industry is much narrower; UK manufacturers have no choice but to import not just the battery but a lot of other stuff as well, because there are no UK suppliers. So a 50% threshold will not allow them to produce "made in UK" EVs and import them tariff-free to Europe.

In short, the EU industry is lobbying Barnier to press for terms which would allow them to export EVs to the UK free of tariffs, but would impose a 10% tariffs on UK EV's going the other way.

This is not what Brexiters meant when they talked about the German car industry coming to the rescue. This is the opposite of that, in fact.

RobMc59 · 23-10-2020 9:46am

Peregrinus wrote: »

Although not, sadly, in a way that helps the UK.

Barnier is proposing that, under the FTA, a car would qualify as made in UK (and therfore attracting zero tariff if imported to the EU) if 45% by value of the car originated in the UK, and a similar rule for cars qualifying as made in EU (and therfore qualifying for zero tariff in the UK).

In an EV, the battery represents 30%-50% of the value of the vehicle. But UK and EU import nearly all of their EV batteries from Asia.

The result is that it would be either impossible or very difficult for an EV to qualify as made in either market, unless it used a mid-range or low-range battery and every other component was sourced domestically.

UK wants a 70% threshold, so that they could spend 30-50% on the battery and 20-40% on other imported components and still have the car treated as "made in UK".

The EU industry is not supporting this; they are calling for a 50% threshhold, which would allow them to spend 30-50% on the battery and only 0-20% on other imported components.

It's obvious what's happening here. EU manufacturers can source virtually everything apart from the battery within the EU, so a 50% threshhold would allow them to produce "made in EU" EVs and import them tariff-free to the UK. But the UK auto industry is much narrower; UK manufacturers have no choice but to import not just the battery but a lot of other stuff as well, because there are no UK suppliers. So a 50% threshold will not allow them to produce "made in UK" EVs and import them tariff-free to Europe.

In short, the EU industry is lobbying Barnier to press for terms which would allow them to export EVs to the UK free of tariffs, but would impose a 10% tariffs on UK EV's going the other way.

This is not what Brexiters meant when they talked about the German car industry coming to the rescue. This is the opposite of that, in fact.

I didn't say anything about what Monsieur Barnier said,I said EU carmakers are lobbying him about tariffs.According to this link increased costs will apply to both parties.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8728361/UK-EU-car-makers-warn-No-Deal-disaster.html

CelticRambler · 23-10-2020 10:02am

RobMc59 wrote: »

I didn't say anything about what Monsieur Barnier said,I said EU carmakers are lobbying him about tariffs.According to this link increased costs will apply to both parties.

Et alors ? (as we say around here :pac: ) I'm not sure what point you're making, Rob. "Business encourages politicians to act in their interest" - that's not exactly a Brexit exclusive. If anything, it's a sign that Big Industry has already moved into the Brexit-Already-Got-Done phase, and they're now treating the EU's negotiations with Britain in exactly the same way that they treat the EU's negotations with any other third country seeking a trade deal.

CelticRambler · 23-10-2020 10:08am

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The Times has an article about the VAT changes and how it will affect UK EU trade.
Is the man on the street is finally being educated in the reality of things to come?

https://twitter.com/paullewismoney/status/1319187075678220288

Finally being educated? I'm not sure about that. In the comments: "does this relate to services as well?" "what are the arrangements for VAT on services supplied/received from EU after Brexit transition?" ...

Ehhh ... services? What services will you be supplying to the Single Market from a UK-based office on the back of non-EU qualifications? :rolleyes:

Peregrinus · 23-10-2020 10:39am

RobMc59 wrote: »

I didn't say anything about what Monsieur Barnier said,I said EU carmakers are lobbying him about tariffs.

Of course they're lobbying him about tariffs. The point is, they are not lobbying him in a way that might be of any benefit to the UK. Quite the reverse.

RobMc59 wrote: »

According to this link increased costs will apply to both parties.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8728361/UK-EU-car-makers-warn-No-Deal-disaster.html

Yes. Brexit is harmful to everybody. This isn't news. EU stakeholders are lobbying Barnier to try to shape Brexit in a way that minimises the harm to them. This is unsurprising. They are not lobbying him to to try to minimise harm to the UK because (a) why would they? and (b) if they did, why would he pay any attention?

It's up the UK government tor try and shape Brexit in a way that minimises harm to the UK. So far they have done a piss-poor job of that, pretty consistently making choices that tend to maximise harm to the UK, and generally trying arrange matters so that, on a range of possible Brexits that runs from "bad for the UK" to "dreadful for the UK", actual Brexit will be close to the "dreadful" end. The German carmakers were supposed to intervene to prevent this happening but it turns out that for some unaccountable reason minimising harm to the UK is even less of a priority for them than it is for the UK government.

Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

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